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20-10-2020, 20:23   #31
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Broad model agreement on a vigorous cold front crossing the country on Saturday. Could be very windy along Atlantic coastal counties and blustery overland. Heavy rain for a time, more so along Atlantic coasts. Looks like wind warnings .











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20-10-2020, 20:47   #32
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On the cooler side in general over the coming days with a couple of milder interludes during frontal passages like Saturday.



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21-10-2020, 11:01   #33
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ECM showing much stronger winds along Atlantic coastal counties now for early Saturday, timing still shifting a bit so will take more time to pin this down but it certainly has signs of being a strong one if fast moving through. Quite an active front, could produce squally conditions with straight line winds.

Cold upper pool following, producing blustery convective showers, maybe some of hail later and some possibly thundery.









Last edited by Meteorite58; 21-10-2020 at 11:07.
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21-10-2020, 11:06   #34
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GFS looking very windy as is ICON and ARPEGE



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21-10-2020, 20:28   #35
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ECM showing very strong winds coming into Atlantic coastal counties late Fri / early Saturday and very blustery overland, possibly some quite strong winds overland in exposed areas or high ground. A lot of vorticity showing up with loads of shear. Wondering if we will see squally conditions and straight line winds. Could be some very heavy embedded showers.

Staying windy on the coasts and becoming blustery later that night into Sunday morning.

Getting mild in the Southerly winds during the day and cooling again that night.

Would reckon currently showing a high end Yellow warning in coastal counties at the moment, possibly Orange warning level for a time, possibly yellow warnings inland given that there will be strong squally showers as well.

Other models similar, ECM probably the strongest atm











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23-10-2020, 22:56   #36
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A lot of uncertainty around where the track of the remnant Low will end up and how strong it will be ( Met Eireann mention this tonight but haven't ruled it out mentioning still a possibility of strong winds or stormy conditions ). Models are also showing secondary lows that may have more strength than the remnant low itself. ECM has backed off now for a couple of runs as the GFS brings it closer the last few runs as indicated be indicated by the charts below. A lot of energy in the Atlantic, what will get swept in by the jet ? After +120 hrs models are showing some stormy weather at times.

Huge seas forecast.



https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/13...052382720?s=20







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23-10-2020, 23:24   #37
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Putting this from the NHC in here as tying it in to how it may impact on us around next Tues/Weds . The closest model atm is the GFS, strong atm but noting that we are not used to this time of the year. It is out on it's own for now but has been very consistent for number of runs. Is this going to be a big one over the ECM for the GFS ???

You would think there would be a bit more model agreement within the 120hr mark.



WTNT42 KNHC 232051
TCDAT2

NHC

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

The satellite structure of Epsilon has evolved over the last 6
hours, with visible imagery suggesting concentric eyewalls, and
recent 89 GHz GMI and AMSR2 microwave imagery indicating the
secondary eyewall has nearly closed off around the smaller core. The
current intensity of Epsilon was kept at 75 kt for this advisory,
close to the satellite estimates, although the 50-kt wind field has
expanded significantly in the northern semicircle as indicated by
recent scatterometer data.

Epsilon has maintained its northward heading with a bit faster
forward motion (360/10 kt). The track reasoning remains the same,
where the cyclone will be steered to the north around the westward
extent of a deep-layer ridge and then will move quite quickly to
the northeast as it encounters stronger deep-layer westerly flow
ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. This same mid-latitude trough
will interact with Epsilon after 60 h and contribute to the
formation of a large and powerful baroclinic cyclone by the end of
the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the track
forecast.

Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days
and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core
fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest
intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over
a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary
eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official
intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h.
Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilons 34- and 50-kt
wind field should continue to expand to the south while it
undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early
Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 35.5N 61.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 37.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 38.9N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 41.9N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 45.6N 45.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 50.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/1800Z 54.0N 24.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED




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23-10-2020, 23:50   #38
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NASA Sat Pic taken earlier today of tonight's system off the NW coast and Hurricane Epsilon across the Atlantic. Can see smoke in between the two systems coming from the fires in the US.




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24-10-2020, 20:06   #39
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Well and truly time to put Epsilon to bed, at best a gale at sea for Ireland Tues and Weds ,windy along the coasts and breezy overland, looking a bit wet along Atlantic coastal counties.

The GFS eventually followed the ECM and UKMO, took it a few days. Looking back over the last week it was the GFS that was first on it and first to show the remnants impacting on Ireland, when the ECM also came on board then Met Eireann started producing its commentary and forecasts and it looked high probability for a couple of days that we could get stormy conditions. ECM pulled the remnants further away followed by the UKMO and lastly the GFS. Was looking at GEM also but always seemed to be doing it's own thing.









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27-10-2020, 20:10   #40
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Looking very windy from the European models over the weekend coming. GFS was showing it but backed off a bit.

ECM showing a cluster of LP's exiting the left side of the Jet from Sat through to Monday ( have put in Monday chart even though not technically within +120 hrs but it is very much part of the wave of LP's showing up over the weekend ).

The models differ on where they impact but all are showing very strong if not stormy conditions from early Saturday from deepening depressions, 3 so far I make it passing close or over us in quick succession. Could be a very lively weekend if these charts were to verify. With the position of the Jet I reckon there is a fair chance of a strong wind event. These are all forecast to deepen on approach so one to take notice of.

I see a thread coming.......









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08-11-2020, 17:35   #41
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Wetter weather this week coming, a bit windy at times around midweek. Met Eireann talking about possible flooding in places around midweek.

More under the influence of LP. Blocking high over Europe keeping us in the path of frontal activity from Atlantic LP's, lots of SWly sourced winds

Mild in general











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08-11-2020, 17:45   #42
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https://twitter.com/MetEireann/statu...453684736?s=20
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10-11-2020, 20:50   #43
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Quick moving active front crossing the country tomorrow. Could be blustery and squally for a time. Pulling in colder air behind it.











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16-11-2020, 23:50   #44
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Quite windy along Atlantic coasts on Weds into Thurs, Marine warnings and possibly warnings in coastal counties especially the W and NW, could be very blustery or possible strong winds overland also for a time. The E coast might get a lick of it also in the early hours. Could be fairly disturbed along the E coast / Irish sea for a time late Weds early Thurs perhaps.

Cold air following the cold front with some heavy showers possible, more so in the W / NW.














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21-11-2020, 19:29   #45
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ECM 12Z looing very wet Monday into Tues. Slow moving frontal passage. The triple point looks set to pass over Galway. Shows more rainfall a bit further inland than the other European models at this stage. GFS showing some high accumulated rainfall totals up to Tues afternoon. Would imagine rainfall warnings possible. A bit windy along the coasts on Monday .









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