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22-10-2020, 20:18   #91
Meteorite58
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Very wide spread between the main models this evening, GFS has been tracking much further away with no real impact, ECM 12Z just brought the remnant low much closer but not packing the same punch as earlier runs but the fact that it is closer would still give some strong winds. ECM would give windy weather from Tues evening to early Thurs morning and another disturbance crossing the country later Thurs. Showing high rainfall accumulations along Atlantic counties.

Would think the ECM has been showing the most consistent track. But would need to see it hold this for a number of runs to be anywhere close to being confident in it.



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23-10-2020, 11:58   #92
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The turn of the GFS to bring the remnants close to us around next Tues/ Weds whilst the ECM on the last run backs off . Plenty of twists and turns to come yet. GFS goes on to show a disturbed pattern.



Met Eireann quite bullish this far out ' TUESDAY: The remnants of Hurricane Epsilon will impact upon our shores during the midweek period. Scattered blustery heavy showers are expected on Tuesday, along with fresh to strong and gusty southerly winds. Wet and very windy or stormy after dark, in strong to gale force and gusty south to southwest winds. The rain will turn thundery at times with the risk of hail. Highest temperatures 11 to 14 degrees Celsius.

WEDNESDAY: Sustained high winds and frequent showers are expected with the ongoing risk of hail and embedded thunderstorms. Highest temperatures 9 to 12 degrees Celsius.




ECM and GFS very different out at +240 hrs, GFS producing a deep storm and ECM building HP and introducing mild Southerlies.










HIRES not as strong as previous runs

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25-10-2020, 00:15   #93
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Charts showing a very strong Jet over or near us out to +240hrs, quite a few fast moving LP's showing up that could bring windy and wet weather at times, main models currently show it to be quite unsettled around Thurs and over next weekend. Getting milder in general for a few days at the end of the week.

ECM showing Atlantic coastal counties getting high rainfall accumulations.

Lot of Southerly sourced airflow.


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25-10-2020, 23:05   #94
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From Met Eireann :

LATEST FARMING COMMENTARY

Forecast issued at: Sunday 25th October 2020 15:00

Weather conditions over the next 7 days will be very unsettled, with above normal rainfall expected almost everywhere with good portions of the country expected to see between 200 and 300% of average. The east will be marginally drier overall but 150% of norm is still expected.


------------------------------------------

Some very wet days coming up the following week especially along Atlantic coastal counties and the Western side of the country as it is all coming in off the Atlantic, Mountain areas looking exceptionally wet . The weekend coming looks very wet. Tentative signs of Hp building after next weekend from the ECM. GFS showing it to be still disturbed first few days of Nov before ridge builds. Will see.

Sat 31st

ECMWF





Sunday 1st







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26-10-2020, 10:05   #95
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Hints of something cooler developing on this mornings ECM and GFS in the extended range. Interesting Arctic High building on the ECM - possible Greeny high coming after these charts? Something to keep an eye on anyway.

Day 9



Day 10

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28-10-2020, 00:04   #96
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A few days of HP would be welcome next week.

GFS not as good.


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28-10-2020, 00:57   #97
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Still miles out in FI but I really like the way the ECM and to some extent the GFS in deep FI are trending - Watch for Height rises to our North/North West to show up in the coming days.

Loaded with potential here -


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28-10-2020, 01:22   #98
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Originally Posted by BLIZZARD7 View Post
Still miles out in FI but I really like the way the ECM and to some extent the GFS in deep FI are trending - Watch for Height rises to our North/North West to show up in the coming days.

Loaded with potential here -


Sorry for being an idiot but loaded with potential for what?
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28-10-2020, 05:12   #99
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Sorry for being an idiot but loaded with potential for what?
Hint's in the posters name
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30-10-2020, 06:00   #100
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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/...h-0-240.png?00



if only

Last edited by konman; 30-10-2020 at 11:36.
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31-10-2020, 15:41   #101
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Blocked is definitely the Theme in FI on the ECM and GFS today - Still day 9/10 before things look interesting but looking very likely we will atleast have a settled seasonal spell with the day 10 means showing a big High pressure over Ireland/The UK.

ECM operational is a thing of beauty with a Greeny high and a nice cold pool to our north about to drop south-

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31-10-2020, 15:45   #102
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Sorry for being an idiot but loaded with potential for what?
Potential for the High to migrate to Greenland and send cold air down over us from the north like today's ECM is showing above ^
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06-11-2020, 11:14   #103
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God our Winters are getting so bland and mild. Looks milder for ALL the rest of November bar one or two brief cooler incursions.

The quiteness of this thread speaks volumes
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06-11-2020, 11:54   #104
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God our Winters are getting so bland and mild. Looks milder for ALL the rest of November bar one or two brief cooler incursions.

The quiteness of this thread speaks volumes
Yeah....it's only 2 and a half years since the Storm Emma of 2018......
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06-11-2020, 12:32   #105
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God our Winters are getting so bland and mild. Looks milder for ALL the rest of November bar one or two brief cooler incursions.

The quiteness of this thread speaks volumes
But it's Autumn in November. Saying that the rest of November is looking mainly milder is a separate topic to that of the winter climate. Connected, yes, but I wouldn't directly associate November with a description of the upcoming winter weather which is yet to happen.
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