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View Poll Results: Who Will The Dems pick in 2020
Harris 51 6.09%
Bernie 205 24.46%
Clinton 27 3.22%
Brooker 8 0.95%
Biden 352 42.00%
Gillbrand 6 0.72%
Oprah! 41 4.89%
Warren 85 10.14%
Klobuchar 7 0.84%
Michelle Obama 44 5.25%
Cuomo 12 1.43%
Voters: 838. You may not vote on this poll

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04-10-2020, 21:19   #7201
Tell me how
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Originally Posted by Outlaw Pete View Post
Before COVID he was knocking it out of the park on almost every metric. Low earners took home more and in Jan, 2020 America had the lowest unemployment record in 50 years.
Not everyone thinks that.



Another view

FOREIGN POLICY: MEAWW RATING ‘B’
ECONOMY: MEAWW RATING ‘B’
WOMEN: MEAWW RATING ‘E’
CLIMATE: MEAWW RATING ‘D’
HEALTHCARE: MEAWW RATING ‘C’
IMMIGRATION: MEAWW RATING ‘E’

Going on his own promises in 2016
Did he drain the swamp? No.
Did he build the wall? No.
Did he lock her up? No.
Did he repeal Obamacare? No.
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04-10-2020, 21:43   #7202
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And if Trump said there were no white supremacist groups, that white supremacy was just "an idea" - that'd have been okay?? Come on.

Organized and orchestrated chaos is not an idea. Ideas don't set fire to buildings, loot and throw Molotov cocktails at police. Ideas don't split people's heads open...

Just "an idea"? No, Trump is 100% correct about them and the dangers that they pose to America. Biden downplaying Antifa as just "an idea" is just an attempt to to dilute their actions and make it appear as if the Trump administration are wrong to categorize them as domestic terrorists. He's not and it's just another very good reason that Biden is not fit to be POTUS and Trump should get reelected.
Trump and his ilk are repeatedly suggesting that 'antifa' is a national organisation carrying out an agenda dictated by some central command in league with the democrats.

Its true there are small organised 'chapters' of anti-fascists who form a hardocre of action, but they almost always act locally, and traditionally, the vast majority of their activity involves intelligence, disruption of fascist organising and occasionally physical confrontation of fascists on the street.

What we are seeing now in the protests in various US cities is a loose coalition of left wing activists, BLM and anti racists, black bloc types, and antifascists, the vast majority of whom despise the Democrats and are primarily motivated by the rise in white supremacist and right wing violence in the wake of charlottesville and the ongoing high profile murder of black Americans by Police.

The suggestion that this is some homogenous centralised group attempting to destroy America is a product of demented ultra right conservative propaganda, but there is a simple solution. Antifa and associated groups are reactive. if the threat of fascism and white supremacy diminishes they will cease to be a political force.
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04-10-2020, 22:17   #7203
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What does that have to do with anything? blm Does not = the Democrats, Not all BLM (or any other) protesters are Democrats.
What does BLM have to with anything??

The liberal media went out of their way to carry water for them, as did the democrats, including Biden, when they condemed even outdoor Trump rallys but yet never doing the same when it came to BLM protests. Instead, they all had their back.

An example of that double standard:





So a virus will more likely infect people if they are being defiant. Bending over backwards to make an absurd distinction between two groups doing the same thing: gathering in mostly maskless groups outdoors.
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04-10-2020, 22:38   #7204
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Looking bad for Trump based on this new poll.




https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ion-poll-shows

Flashback to their poll this time 4 years ago.

The idea of a Dem +8 turnout which the poll is based on sounds extremely optimistic based on the registered voter figures which show a GOP increase which has spiked the past few months. The polls problem is projecting the electorate and turnout models and if they are off on turnout by a tiny bit like 2016, the polling error will be huge.

Biden's team wouldn't be campaigning in Michigan if they thought they were 14 points up and more importantly wouldn't be resorting to a ground game 4 weeks from the election after spending the previous 6 months saying that door to door electioneering was now obsolete. The voter registration numbers have to be a worry.
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04-10-2020, 22:40   #7205
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No evidence that BLM protests led to a spike in cases, partially due to mask wearing, hygiene stands, social distancing & lack of any shared indoor facilities.

Quote:
A paper looking at virus data from protests between May 26 and June 20, found “no evidence that urban protests reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following protest onset.”

“We conclude that predictions of broad negative public health consequences of Black Lives Matter protests were far too narrowly conceived,” the authors of the National Bureau of Economic Research paper wrote.

That lines up with what others have seen in various cities.

“I have not seen any peer-reviewed research linking outdoor protests (or really any major outdoor events) to the surge here in Texas,” said Rodney Rohde, PhD, an associate dean for research at Texas State’s College of Health Professions who focuses on public health microbiology.https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...protest-spread
Whereas several Trump related events have been linked to mass spread of the virus, such as:

Quote:
It was a 10-day celebration of big bikes, revving engines and inalienable American freedoms that saw more than 400,000 people descend on a South Dakota town.

Vowing that a pandemic would not halt the 80th Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, bikers rode from across the country to join in, despite local fears it would cause a spike in Covid-19.

Three weeks after the event ended and attendees roared off along highways, health officials now fear many took home more than just new tattoos.

The jamboree is feared to have been a so-called super-spreader event responsible for large numbers of coronavirus cases across the country.

Doctors have begun recording scores of cases linked to the get-together and an academic paper has now suggested the rally could have been potentially responsible for more than 250,000 cases.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...linked-250000/
The main difference presumably is behaviour. It is possible to hold outdoor events in relative safely IF the people involved attempt to follow basic guidelines.
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04-10-2020, 22:57   #7206
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The idea of a Dem +8 turnout which the poll is based on sounds extremely optimistic based on the registered voter figures which show a GOP increase which has spiked the past few months. The polls problem is projecting the electorate and turnout models and if they are off on turnout by a tiny bit like 2016, the polling error will be huge.

Biden's team wouldn't be campaigning in Michigan if they thought they were 14 points up and more importantly wouldn't be resorting to a ground game 4 weeks from the election after spending the previous 6 months saying that door to door electioneering was now obsolete. The voter registration numbers have to be a worry.
There's also been an unprecedented amount of mail-in and early voting, which is good for the Dems, but probably makes it more difficult to get an accurate picture.
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04-10-2020, 23:02   #7207
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Trump decides to leave the hospital and have his staff drive him around before returning to the hospital.

W.t.f. is wrong with this guy?

https://twitter.com/DrPhillipsMD/sta...385229827?s=19
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04-10-2020, 23:22   #7208
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That drive by by Trump reminded me of when Polly dressed up as Sybil in Fawlty Towers. I presume Trump has a double?
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04-10-2020, 23:23   #7209
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That drive by by Trump reminded me of when Polly dressed up as Sybil in Fawlty Towers. I presume Trump has a double?
Brendan Gleeson
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04-10-2020, 23:25   #7210
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Don't think Alec Balwin or Brendan Gleeson were available.
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04-10-2020, 23:47   #7211
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That drive by is another example of how the GOP don't really care about law enforcement or the military. They are nothing more than a tool for them.

It is also another example of Trump's photo ops turning around and biting him. Just like the one that they cleared the protesters for, the photo itself won't be the story, it'll be the recklessness in getting it.
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05-10-2020, 00:01   #7212
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Originally Posted by DK224 View Post
Flashback to their poll this time 4 years ago.

The idea of a Dem +8 turnout which the poll is based on sounds extremely optimistic based on the registered voter figures which show a GOP increase which has spiked the past few months. The polls problem is projecting the electorate and turnout models and if they are off on turnout by a tiny bit like 2016, the polling error will be huge.

Biden's team wouldn't be campaigning in Michigan if they thought they were 14 points up and more importantly wouldn't be resorting to a ground game 4 weeks from the election after spending the previous 6 months saying that door to door electioneering was now obsolete. The voter registration numbers have to be a worry.
Very different race this time. In 2016 there were:
- a lot more undecideds
- people weren't as set in their choice
- Clinton had much higher negatives
- poll models have been changed
- there is a decent chance of these polls are even undercounting Biden support (under representing youth vote due to their normal low rates that might change)

Polls aren't guarantees, they currently give Trump around a 20% chance which is still pretty likely. The polls were nearly spot on regarding the national vote in 2016 and there were only outside the margin of error in a handful of states.
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05-10-2020, 08:20   #7213
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Very different race this time. In 2016 there were:
- a lot more undecideds
- people weren't as set in their choice
- Clinton had much higher negatives
- poll models have been changed
- there is a decent chance of these polls are even undercounting Biden support (under representing youth vote due to their normal low rates that might change)

Polls aren't guarantees, they currently give Trump around a 20% chance which is still pretty likely. The polls were nearly spot on regarding the national vote in 2016 and there were only outside the margin of error in a handful of states.
The premise behind a lot of these polls are for a huge voter turnout (especially youth) for Biden. That has been touted by many commentators and polls but if you throw into the mix that a huge number of colleges are closed and that a smaller number of students are on campus to vote (mostly democrat), which could be big in some close states.

Also, if you drill down to the crosstabs there is a few things that are showing up consistently the past few weeks. There is a 20-30 point voter enthusiasm gap between likely Biden & Trump voters. It is not the same electorate this year Trump is gaining close to 5% & 10% of the Afro American and Hispanic vote compared to 2016. If these figures come close to holding on election day then even with the loss of a large % of Suburban White Women the Dems are in trouble.
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05-10-2020, 08:57   #7214
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Quote:
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The premise behind a lot of these polls are for a huge voter turnout (especially youth) for Biden. That has been touted by many commentators and polls but if you throw into the mix that a huge number of colleges are closed and that a smaller number of students are on campus to vote (mostly democrat), which could be big in some close states.

Also, if you drill down to the crosstabs there is a few things that are showing up consistently the past few weeks. There is a 20-30 point voter enthusiasm gap between likely Biden & Trump voters. It is not the same electorate this year Trump is gaining close to 5% & 10% of the Afro American and Hispanic vote compared to 2016. If these figures come close to holding on election day then even with the loss of a large % of Suburban White Women the Dems are in trouble.

All of the above us factored in to this model:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Which gives Trump a 19% chance of winning. It’ll be an upset if he wins, but not a massive one.
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05-10-2020, 10:02   #7215
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The premise behind a lot of these polls are for a huge voter turnout (especially youth) for Biden. That has been touted by many commentators and polls but if you throw into the mix that a huge number of colleges are closed and that a smaller number of students are on campus to vote (mostly democrat), which could be big in some close states.

Also, if you drill down to the crosstabs there is a few things that are showing up consistently the past few weeks. There is a 20-30 point voter enthusiasm gap between likely Biden & Trump voters. It is not the same electorate this year Trump is gaining close to 5% & 10% of the Afro American and Hispanic vote compared to 2016. If these figures come close to holding on election day then even with the loss of a large % of Suburban White Women the Dems are in trouble.
Does that not just mean that they'll vote in their home location?

Unless all students live in California or some other Hard Blue state I don't see how this is necessarily a negative - In fact it might tighten some of the more rural area if the (typically) more liberal youth vote is there rather than in the blue cities where Colleges are.
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