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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

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Comments

  • #2042
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    This wasn't exactly a particularly active "storm season" if we are only up to "E" in the named category.
    Certainly going out with a bang though!


  • #2043
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    "Almost-Ellen" looks like not turning out to be much of a system, according to the UKMO FAX charts (human-generated). Starts off as a 1012-hPa frontal wave northwest of the Azores tomorrow night, but looks more of a Shapiro-Keyser hybrid system, with the fronts well removed from the low centre come 12Z Tuesday. Pressure levelling off at around 989 hPa, down from its initial 1012 hPa.

    Will be interesting to see what they think in their 12Z forecasts.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020082200_048.png
    ukmo_nat_fax_2020082200_060.png
    ukmo_nat_fax_2020082200_084.png


  • #2044
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    "Almost-Ellen" looks like not turning out to be much of a system, according to the UKMO FAX charts (human-generated). Starts off as a 1022-hPa frontal wave northwest of the Azores tomorrow night, but looks more of a Shapiro-Keyser hybrid system, with the fronts well removed from the low centre come 12Z Tuesday. Pressure levelling off at around 989 hPa, down from its initial 1012 hPa.

    Will be interesting to see what they think in their 12Z forecasts.


    And the U.K. met office have early warnings out for Tuesday!


  • #2045
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    And the U.K. met office have early warnings out for Tuesday!

    It looks more interesting for the southern UK alright, but still no tight gradients showing up so far.


  • #2046
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,700 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    This wasn't exactly a particularly active "storm season" if we are only up to "E" in the named category.
    Certainly going out with a bang though!

    We ended up inheriting quite a few storm names that were named by other met services or the NHC, so there were more than just 5 named storms.


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  • #2047
    Neddyusa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,010 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    pauldry wrote: »
    Yeah that storm wont be as strong as Ellen but possible gusts of 120 to 130kph would mean more downed trees and power cuts in places.

    Ellen brought 5.5mm of rain to Sligo this will most definitely bring more.

    Stormy Tuesday so.

    Also this storm looks like it could hit during day so impacts could be as dangerous as Ellen

    :eek: She brought 50.8 mm here! And I only in the next county to you.
    35mm of that fell between 1am and 3am


  • #2048
    Neddyusa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,010 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    It looks more interesting for the southern UK alright, but still no tight gradients showing up so far.

    Looks like most of the rain heading for SW England rather than us, thankfully


  • #2049
    Tazio
    Registered Users Posts: 698 ✭✭✭Tazio


    I just looked at GSF 06z and that storm on Tuesday got (for Cork) a bit of an upgrade on the 00z - am I reading this correct?

    (sorry mods if wrong thread)

    523863.jpg


  • #2050
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    I should add that generally speaking if you have to resort to using Kinsale energy or Fastnet lighthouse to verify your wind forecasts, then you probably over-predicted the winds.
    The game is basically this -- you predict wind speeds that will be verifiable from regular weather stations. U


    Yes. It's similar to the the Daily Express going with a banner headline of " Weather bomb batters Scotland with 105mph winds", except they neglect to mention that it's an isolated gust 3,000 foot above sea level in the Scottish Highlands. The guy behind that facebook page is no better, engaging in sensationalism in order to gain clicks. It's annoying that there are people who fall for it.


  • #2051
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Yes. It's similar to the the Daily Express going with a banner headline of " Weather bomb batters Scotland with 105mph winds", except they neglect to mention that it's an isolated gust 3,000 foot above sea level in the Scottish Highlands. The guy behind that facebook page is no better, engaging in sensationalism in order to gain clicks. It's annoying that there people who fall for it.

    Ah yes, Nathan Rao, another ego that knows no bounds. Here's what he says about himself. Obvious that page hits are his only KPI. Accuracy?? Pfff!

    http://www.nathanrao.com/
    I have also written a bit about the weather - actually I racked up around 200 front pages on the subject while at the Express.

    I became passionate about storms and blizzards, Spanish plumes, low pressure, high pressure, isobars, weather bombs, Azores highs - everything and anything meteorological.

    I lay claim to being the only journalist to crash the Daily Express’s website after one of my stories drew more than two million hits in just a couple of hours.

    During the past year more than 13,000,000 web users have read my articles and I have had more hits than any other contributor to the paper.

    Some of my work has become the most read material in the country with several stories getting more hits than any article on any national newspaper website.

    The same also applies to a growing number of "mainstream" journalists too, including (but not exclusively) the Indo, which is in a desperate race to the bottom of gutter journalism. Oneric asked the other day why we're not highlighting them too, and he was right. It's the way things work now. The more chart colours or "bomb" words you can get on a page the better.


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  • #2052
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    We've had more than enough time to give our thoughts about Storm Ellen and it's time to move onto the next windy spell.

    Discussions relating to this Tuesdays event can be read here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058106762


This discussion has been closed.
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