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Northern Hemisphere Ice and Snow Advance 2019/20

13

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Arctic sea ice extent is now 13,989,242 km2 (just shy of 14 million) and this completes a third day in a row of well above average daily gains for this time of year.

    Arctic sea ice extent remains in 14th lowest position overall. Nearby is 2004 which was just 87k ahead of 2020 - so it's quite possible that 2020 will drop into 15th lowest position should the recent above average gains continue a pace.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Been keeping an eye on this for a few days now but looks increasinly likely that we'll see a very dramatic drop in both global and northern hemispheric temp anomalies over the next 5 days.. and by as as much as 1.0c or even more in the latter.

    P7hEFmi.png
    (data sourced from Climate Reanalyzer)

    Both global and N.H have been running very high since the start (and even before) the year, but a drop on this scale is nonetheless very notable, and possibly unprecedented (I'll check later when I have more time and post results on here). Arctic temperatures are also expected to drop once again into negative territory after being in a positive period for a number of weeks now.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Interesting slide in temperatures, the DMI temperature graph is showing temperatures across the high Arctic gone into below average territory also:

    meanT_2020.png
    * Live image - will auto-update

    Yesterday saw sea ice extent reach 14,412,259 km2 which is the current maximum for the 2019-2020 freezing season with around one week on average left to go. This puts this year at 12th lowest in the satellite recording history (1979-present). Also of note is sea ice area which is currently 14th in the satellite recording history.

    With the aforementioned cold spell taking hold, it will be interesting to see if the freezing season extends beyond the average finish date. The latest date for an Arctic sea ice maximum extent was March 19th 2014. Either way, the cold temperatures should hopefully assist in tempering the volumes lost in the early days of the melt season which could prove to be beneficial later in the summer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 462 ✭✭oriel36


    To understand or explain cyclical Arctic sea ice development and disappearance across an orbit takes priority over variations from one year to the next or one decade to the next in much the same way as the rise and fall in temperatures daily in response to a turning Earth is the foundation and all other variations are extraneous.

    Right now, the circumference where the Sun is out of sight, with the North Pole at its centre, has shrunken from a maximum circumference on the December Solstice otherwise known as the Arctic circle so a switch will occur in a number of weeks when the area where the Sun is constantly in view begins to expand after the Equinox at the North Pole. The decline in Arctic sea ice in response to the interplay between axial orientation and orbital motion and the traits contained within the Arctic circle with the North Pole at its centre is paramount in any consideration.

    There is no comparable time lapse of the Earth on the March Equinox as there is for the September Equinox when the South Pole turns parallel to the orbital plane and perpendicular to the planet's circle of illumination -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Space_Climate_Observatory#/media/File:EpicEarth-Globespin-tilt-23.4.gif

    It is this surface rotation as a function of the planet's orbital motion which creates the astronomical and surface spectacle of a single sunrise each year at both poles -

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okw6Mu3mxdM


    In their eagerness to deal with Arctic sea ice evolution in terms of experimental theorists (climate change), they ignore the really good stuff where planetary dynamics create one of the great planetary spectacles of sea ice development/disappearance.

    The factual primacy is that in the absence of daily rotation and all its effects, the entire surface of the planet still turns once each year to the Sun and orbital plane thereby creating a single day/night cycle. Without this fact, neither Arctic sea ice evolution, the seasons, the variations in the natural noon cycle or any other cause and effect will continue to be ignored or smothered by pseudo-intellectual fluff of speculative theorists.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    FFS, not this shít again.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 462 ✭✭oriel36


    FFS, not this shít again.

    Being boring is not a crime but neither is it helpful for students who perhaps can do what you cannot. From many years experience, moderators throwing their weight around worked only for a short time as it exposed a clique mentality or followers susceptible to that type of behaviour and no different here.

    The fact is that in the absence of daily rotation, the entire surface of the Earth still turns once - slowly, unevenly and parallel to the orbital plane as a function of our planet's orbital motion and with it all the seasonal effects like hurricane season and Arctic sea ice evolution.

    The hapless want to imagine weather is responsible for sea ice therefore lack the intellectual legitimacy for discussing the topic in much the same way they would say the Sun is responsible for the daily weather - too crude to be of any use.

    The Earth not only moves but rotates in two separate ways hence dull minds wouldn't be invited to discuss the topic which incorporates annual seasons.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    oriel36 wrote: »
    The Earth not only moves but rotates in two separate ways hence dull minds wouldn't be invited to discuss the topic which incorporates annual seasons.

    When I read "Annual Seasons" I automatically think of a collection of years having a pattern or a background signal that clubs them together - the consistent and repetitive wet summers of 2007 to 2012 come to mind, but none other would. So my question is - have these annual seasons been mapped out or documented? If so, where is there an easy-to-follow description and supporting evidence and with good examples for Ireland, western Europe in particular.


  • Registered Users Posts: 462 ✭✭oriel36


    Danno wrote: »
    When I read "Annual Seasons" I automatically think of a collection of years having a pattern or a background signal that clubs them together - the consistent and repetitive wet summers of 2007 to 2012 come to mind, but none other would. So my question is - have these annual seasons been mapped out or documented? If so, where is there an easy-to-follow description and supporting evidence and with good examples for Ireland, western Europe in particular.


    Awkward phrasing on my part - the hurricane season and Arctic sea ice evolution within an annual cycle would be more appropriate as ocean temperatures fluctuate North and South of the Earth's daily rotational Equator. The dynamic behind that fluctuation is the length of time a location spends in solar radiation from the time when it exits the circle of illumination (sunrise) and when it passes back through (sunset) as the main factor. The seasonal variation, including the location of Ireland, is due to the combination of the daily and orbital surface rotations acting in combination.

    Cause and effect - why is there a single day/night cycle at the North pole ?. The answer is found in Arctic sea ice as an effect where the surface area expands and shrinks in response to the area where the Sun is either completely in view or out of sight.

    Without the stated fact that when daily rotation and all its effects are subtracted,the entire surface of the Earth still turns once each orbit to the Sun and parallel to the orbital plane then none of these descriptions will make sense. The North/South poles, where daily rotation is absent, provide the template for inspecting the surface rotation as a function of the orbital motion of the Earth and why there will be a single sunrise in a few weeks at the North pole.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Here we have the latest forecast of an ice-free Arctic, this time by 2034. Disinformation at its finest again. Note how they use the polar bear topic and the blatant lie that the "ice has been steadily decreasing". This is the Weather Channel. USA Today and many others have also run with it.

    https://weather.com/science/environment/video/arctic-could-see-ice-free-summers-sooner-than-thought

    504931.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    "Will be ice free sooner than we think - by 2034?'

    But.. but:

    " Ice-free means the central basin of the Arctic will be ice-free and I think that that is going to happen in summer 2017 or 2018."

    -some random scientist

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/21/arctic-will-be-ice-free-in-summer-next-year

    Or by this year..scientists said:

    https://nsidc.org/news/inthenews/arctic-could-be-ice-free-2020-scientists-say

    https://www.adn.com/arctic/article/expert-predicts-ice-free-arctic-2020-same-day-un-releases-climate-report/2014/11/02/

    Or was that 2016..

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/10/07/experts-said-arctic-sea-ice-would-melt-entirely-by-september-201/

    I think what that headline meant to say, and should have said, is that the Arctic will be ice free a lot later than we have been constantly told it would be.

    About time these false prophets were held accountable to the very people who are generously funding them. I.E, the tax payer.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users Posts: 462 ✭✭oriel36


    Seemingly a rampant Chelsea supporter acts like a hooligan but is also a bouncer/moderator. It means people here are afraid of people who throw their weight around otherwise known as collective cowardice.

    https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/antarctica/south-pole

    The Sun will turn out of sight in a few days at the South Pole for a period of 6 months while at the North pole will come into view for the first time since September 2019 and remain in view for 6 months. The surface rotation parallel to the orbital plane will, from now on, create an increasing expanse of are where the Sun is constantly in view at the North pole until it reaches a maximum circumference on the June Solstice.

    Sea ice will begin to diminish in response to this great surface rotation induced by the specific way the Earth orbits the Sun.

    In an era of the coronavirus some people show themselves to be small and especially those modeling the spread of the virus based on a herd immunity/mentality.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Sometimes people are their own worst enemies, enjoy your month off .
    oriel36 wrote: »
    Seemingly a rampant Chelsea supporter acts like a hooligan but is also a bouncer/moderator. It means people here are afraid of people who throw their weight around otherwise known as collective cowardice.

    https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/antarctica/south-pole

    The Sun will turn out of sight in a few days at the South Pole for a period of 6 months while at the North pole will come into view for the first time since September 2019 and remain in view for 6 months. The surface rotation parallel to the orbital plane will, from now on, create an increasing expanse of are where the Sun is constantly in view at the North pole until it reaches a maximum circumference on the June Solstice.

    Sea ice will begin to diminish in response to this great surface rotation induced by the specific way the Earth orbits the Sun.

    In an era of the coronavirus some people show themselves to be small and especially those modeling the spread of the virus based on a herd immunity/mentality.


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Hi Guys,

    Just starting this thread. More informed people than me can keep it going.

    Does anyone have the percentage of how much ice was lost this summer or are we improving from other years?

    @Kermit do you want to kick this off again?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Arctic Sea Ice Extent is hovering around the 4M km/2 (JAXA) and nearer to 4.35M km/2 (NSIDC) who are the two main reporting agencies releasing daily data.

    JAXA: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/monitor - Click on extent graph
    NSIDC: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

    Record low in 2012 was around 3.2M km/2 and this year will likely end up in second or third position when the usual summer melt out finishes around the second week of September or thereabouts.

    Meanwhile the Antarctic sea ice extent has returned above normal after an average freezing season.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Arctic extent (cyan) is currently close to 2019, 2017, 2016, etc., but well above that of the record 2012. The next two weeks should see the minimum achieved, and barring any major fluctuation between now and then it's currently looking like it will similar to or slightly below 2019.

    524961.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    A few days from the annual minimum extent and this year is the lowest since the 2012 low benchmark. Unlikely to go lower than that record.

    525801.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,811 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    Interesting that it got this low after the bumper winter with much higher than recent years of ice cover.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    meanT_2020.png

    After a delayed start the arctic temperatures have projected downwards rapidly in recent days - this bodes well for a sooner start to ice growth once more.

    Today's ice figures are 3.59m Km2 which is the same extent as yesterday. url]https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent[/url

    Will we see an uptick in figures tomorrow? Or is there some further loss to be had?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Arctic sea ice extent minimum reached 3.55 million km2 on September 13th and has since commenced it's usual winter re-growth.

    Yesterday, arctic sea ice gained a massive 105,000 km2 which is quite notable for a gain this size so soon after the minimum extent date. An average gain on this date would be roughly only 2,000 km2.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Here is the updated minima dataset including the 2020 value. The past decade has been relatively consistent with a linear trend of about -18,000 km² per annum.

    526764.png

    526765.png

    526766.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭lapua20grain




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,290 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Maybe deserves its own thread, pretty alarming really - Arctic Sea Ice Isn't Freezing In October for the First Time on Record
    When autumn falls on the Laptev Sea, which borders the northwest coast of Siberia, sea ice typically starts to form in vast quantities that flow into the Arctic Ocean over the winter.

    But this year, for the first time on record, the Laptev Sea’s seasonal ice pack has not started to freeze by late October, reports The Guardian. The delayed production of sea ice in such a critical region is yet another dire omen of the climate crisis, and its disproportionate disruption of the Arctic.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Supercell wrote: »
    Maybe deserves its own thread, pretty alarming really - Arctic Sea Ice Isn't Freezing In October for the First Time on Record
    Alarming in itself but the headline is incredibly misleading. 'Arctic Sea Ice' is freezing, just not in that one particular spot.. yet.

    And isn't this just a bit weird:

    "Scientists think we will witness the first ice-free summer in the Arctic—an event that has not happened for tens of thousands of years—within the next few decades"

    considering that scientists have been telling us for the past 20 + years that the summer Arctic ice would be a relic of the past before 2020? Goal posts being moved once again by the magnitude of decades, but hey, we should 'listen to the scientists', because as we all should have learned by now, no truth is permitted to exist outside of the scientific realm.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,030 ✭✭✭compsys


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Alarming in itself but the headline is incredibly misleading. 'Arctic Sea Ice' is freezing, just not in that one particular spot.. yet.

    And isn't this just a bit weird:

    "Scientists think we will witness the first ice-free summer in the Arctic—an event that has not happened for tens of thousands of years—within the next few decades"

    considering that scientists have been telling us for the past 20 + years that the summer Arctic ice would be a relic of the past before 2020? Goal posts being moved once again by the magnitude of decades, but hey, we should 'listen to the scientists', because as we all should have learned by now, no truth is permitted to exist outside of the scientific realm.

    Decades, given we’re talking about some records going back thousands of years, is hardly a long time to move the goal posts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,886 ✭✭✭✭Roger_007


    compsys wrote: »
    Decades, given we’re talking about some records going back thousands of years, is hardly a long time to move the goal posts.

    When precise predictions are made by climate scientists which don’t materialise, it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in their expertise.
    Wasn’t the Arctic supposed to be ice-free in summer by 2013.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm


  • Registered Users Posts: 776 ✭✭✭Kingswood Rover


    Roger_007 wrote: »
    When precise predictions are made by climate scientists which don’t materialise, it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in their expertise.
    Wasn’t the Arctic supposed to be ice-free in summer by 2013.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
    Read the article FFS it gave a range of dates up to 2100


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,886 ✭✭✭✭Roger_007


    Read the article FFS it gave a range of dates up to 2100

    The article refers to other teams which produced different projections. But the article goes on to say:
    “These other teams have variously produced dates for an open summer ocean that, broadly speaking, go out from about 2040 to 2100.
    But the Monterey researcher, (Maslowski), believes these models have seriously underestimated some key melting processes. In particular, Professor Maslowski is adamant that models need to incorporate more realistic representations of the way warm water is moving into the Arctic basin from the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.“

    As you said yourself “Read the article FFS”.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    We look likely to see rapid advance over the next few days as the polar vortex fires up, already temperatures have taken a tumble across the Beaufort sea, Laptev and the East Siberian sea aiding progress.

    The deepening vortex should trap the colder air firmly over the Arctic and will lead to more cold pooling there.

    The stratospheric temperature profile also suggests no changes to a fired up vortex for a while to come (other than it deepening further)


    anim_zgw7.gif

    Quite confident of big sea ice advances over the coming week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Alarming in itself but the headline is incredibly misleading. 'Arctic Sea Ice' is freezing, just not in that one particular spot.. yet.

    Very misleading indeed, but typical of the selective commentary that the youth of today are being exposed to by sites such as this one.

    A more comprehensive (and honest) summary from the NSIDC shows a very different reality.
    Following the sea ice extent minimum on September 15, 2020, expansion of the ice edge has been most notable in the northern Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The ice edge along the Laptev Sea continued to retreat farther. Antarctic sea ice has climbed to its highest extent since 2014; it may have reached its maximum on September 28, but it is too soon to say for sure.

    ...

    Following the minimum seasonal extent, which occurred on September 15, ice growth quickly began along in the northern Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas (Figure 1). Expansion of the ice edge was also notable within the East Greenland Sea and within Canadian Arctic Archipelago. By contrast, the ice edge in the Kara and Barents Seas remained relatively stable until the end of the month when it started to expand, and within the Laptev Sea the ice edge retreated slightly. The Northern Sea Route remained open at the end of September whereas the Northwest Passage southerly route (Amundsen’s route) is now blocked by ice. Ten days after the minimum extent was reached, the total extent climbed above 4 million square kilometers (1.54 million square miles) and by the end of the month the ice extent was tracking at 4.25 million square kilometers (1.64 million square miles), still second lowest in terms of daily extent.
    And isn't this just a bit weird:

    "Scientists think we will witness the first ice-free summer in the Arctic—an event that has not happened for tens of thousands of years—within the next few decades"

    considering that scientists have been telling us for the past 20 + years that the summer Arctic ice would be a relic of the past before 2020? Goal posts being moved once again by the magnitude of decades, but hey, we should 'listen to the scientists', because as we all should have learned by now, no truth is permitted to exist outside of the scientific realm.

    Yes, this headline pops up about as often as the Exacta winter headlines do every year. Data, of course, show a different story.

    Greenland is another one where deliberate misinformation is rampant and apparently it's a runaway disaster. If these kids learned how to do their own research they may be surprised to find a different reality. Again, our friend the AMO seems to be the primary driver, with a seemingly negative correlation between changing AMO and Greenland mass balance. Nowhere have I seen this mentioned, however.

    530708.PNG

    530712.PNG

    530709.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Was just watching Our Planet there on Netflix now. In Episode 1 (made in 2019), during some amazing footage of calving of the Greenland glaciers, David Attenborough makes some blatantly inaccurate statements that will, of course, go unchallenged...because he said them. Things like "The rate of loss is accelerating..." and "In the past 20 years the rate of loss has doubled". From the discharge chart above he is completely wrong. It's not accelerating and the rate of loss has not doubled.

    He also showed polar bears on their Arctic sea ice and said "within their lifetime, the Arctic will probably be practically ice-free in summer". Polar bears don't have the lifespan of turtles...

    But it must be true because he has Sir in front of his name...


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