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UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,466 ✭✭✭tinpib


    Tonight's early prelims start at 730pm. Nothing standing out value wise tonight, best I can muster is Jessica Aguillar at 4.0 on Skybet. She is a grizzled vet and her opponent has only had one draw against Randa Markos in UFC who is by no means elite level. Could be a dash of your UFC Hype Train feeding into prices.

    I took Aguillar on points as I'm a greedy pig.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,733 ✭✭✭ASOT


    Just two for myself, atletico won just there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    long fancied barboza for this one, think he'll get it done by ko
    If justin decided to use his wrestling he would win this but he probably wont


    fancy mj also at around evens more so as its emmets first fight since that
    brutal ko

    karate hottie to sneak her bout for me and branch maybe had an off day last time out, am surprised he's the underdog

    not sure of paul craigs opponent, he look like a lad who has power but as i dont know enough about him and if he has a ground game it's too risky, wouldnt back craig with stolen money myself but if you fancy him to win then the sub looks value at 3/1 when 9/10 wins have been by sub
    he might be cut if he loses here also so extra motivation there, other lad to finish is around evens which looks likely on paper anyway
    craig has been in there with very good lads also recently


  • Registered Users Posts: 712 ✭✭✭Mean Laqueefa


    not a mad bet ?

    Untitled.jpg


    tbf i dont understand betting, my dad always said he would batter me if i went into a bookies


  • Registered Users Posts: 407 ✭✭Tomas81


    not a mad bet ?

    Untitled.jpg


    tbf i dont understand betting, my dad always said he would batter me if i went into a bookies

    Can't see Gastelum giving style bender any trouble.

    I'm on Adesanya, Muhammed and Holloway all to win 5/1


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    I like osp and not sure why the drift from a week ago (Was 4/6) should be fav
    beat krylov before, took him a minute to sub him so its osp by
    sub for me at 5/2 along with sub in round one at 6/1 (skyb)
    pp had this at 13/2 this morning...only 9/2 now, had it in the betslip but
    completely forgot about it

    like pantoja also but only 4/6, pts looks like though at around 7/4 imo

    can call max dustin, think dustin on pts might be a bit of value at 8s even though max might have a speed advantage

    adesanya can only win this on pts imo, 2s isn't great but I cant see him finishing kelvin



    don't rate anders at all, maybe rountree can take him out but not confident


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    time out in the adesanya fight at 2/1 looks pretty good to me esp the
    way he fights betfred

    same price for one in the max dustin fight

    nice little double there, max might get a knew to the groin at some stage also if dustin holds him against the cage :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,577 ✭✭✭smilerf


    Bit of interest




  • 20 on a OSP sub

    20 on Kelvin via Ko/TKO

    and I had 10 left over so stuck it on Dustin via sub


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    Having a 2.5 pt bet on Poirier for the craic. Lost my touch altogether on picking MMA fights lately and I've no confidence at all that I'll turn it around tonight, but I need something to entice me to stay up...

    As for my reasoning, I love max but DP has shown he can go in the trenches and not lose his power. Max is hittable and maybe that won't translate well to 155.


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  • dulux99 wrote: »
    Having a 2.5 pt bet on Poirier for the craic. Lost my touch altogether on picking MMA fights lately and I've no confidence at all that I'll turn it around tonight, but I need something to entice me to stay up...

    As for my reasoning, I love max but DP has shown he can go in the trenches and not lose his power. Max is hittable and maybe that won't translate well to 155.

    I think people are sleeping on Dustin in this fight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    I think people are sleeping on Dustin in this fight.

    Agreed. 7/4 is generous imo.


  • Registered Users Posts: 38,920 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    I make Max a slight fav, and want him to win but I'm backing Dustin at those odds.
    Hate being in those spots tbh


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    Mellor wrote: »
    I make Max a slight fav, and want him to win but I'm backing Dustin at those odds.
    Hate being in those spots tbh

    That's the correct way to gamble. Seeing value.


  • Registered Users Posts: 38,920 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    I'm happy to back the dog for value. Just dislike it when I really want the other guy to win.

    Sorry Max, Dustin winning makes it a free Sunday for me


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    dulux99 wrote: »
    Having a 2.5 pt bet on Poirier for the craic. Lost my touch altogether on picking MMA fights lately and I've no confidence at all that I'll turn it around tonight, but I need something to entice me to stay up...

    As for my reasoning, I love max but DP has shown he can go in the trenches and not lose his power. Max is hittable and maybe that won't translate well to 155.

    Went as I thought, thank feck.


  • Registered Users Posts: 38,920 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Ship ship.
    Went decent on Dustin because of the odds more than anything.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    mailburner wrote: »
    I like osp and not sure why the drift from a week ago (Was 4/6) should be fav
    beat krylov before, took him a minute to sub him so its osp by
    sub for me at 5/2 along with sub in round one at 6/1 (skyb)
    pp had this at 13/2 this morning...only 9/2 now, had it in the betslip but
    completely forgot about it

    like pantoja also but only 4/6, pts looks like though at around 7/4 imo

    can call max dustin, think dustin on pts might be a bit of value at 8s even though max might have a speed advantage

    adesanya can only win this on pts imo, 2s isn't great but I cant see him finishing kelvin



    don't rate anders at all, maybe rountree can take him out but not confident

    only took it for value alone despite thinking max would probably edge
    it on points

    not sure how gastelum held on there and anders ain't up to much
    osp very disappointing though


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    Getting on Volkanovski now at 11/10 to beat Aldo. Don't expect him to be that price on fight night. Volkanovski would be a problem for a fully fit Jose Aldo these days, let alone a Jose Aldo who's had well publicised health issues lately.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Fancy cerrone to get it done later

    Small bet on the sub at 9/2 also


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,884 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    Hey MB, we rarely disagree, but I have gone for Al !


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,884 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    WoW !

    Cowboy is so sharp !


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭The Floyd p


    Jake Hager aka Jack Swagger as available at 2/9 on PP to beat this TJ Jones chap, then everyone saw what he looked like. Now Hager is 1/33




  • BJ tko or sub 8/1. I'll take those odds


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    awful tempted by the odds on manuwa who's best priced at 15/8 (bet365) and 7/2 for the ko (betv)

    he's only lost to world class fighters and rakic hasn't beaten anyone near the level of manuwa just yet

    I might be wrong but it looks like serious value to me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    mailburner wrote: »
    awful tempted by the odds on manuwa who's best priced at 15/8 (bet365) and 7/2 for the ko (betv)

    he's only lost to world class fighters and rakic hasn't beaten anyone near the level of manuwa just yet

    I might be wrong but it looks like serious value to me.

    poor jimmi, that was horrible


    having my max bet on Moraes next week at 5/6, think he'll get cejudo outa there at some stage.
    He's been finishing top guys in the division recently, can't see cejudo being able to deal with his power.
    The ko at 12/5 looks good to me also.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,884 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    mailburner wrote: »
    poor jimmi, that was horrible


    having my max bet on Moraes next week at 5/6, think he'll get cejudo outa there at some stage.
    He's been finishing top guys in the division recently, can't see cejudo being able to deal with his power.
    The ko at 12/5 looks good to me also.

    If Cejudo mentions his gold medal once more I reckon I would beat him...


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,641 ✭✭✭Luap


    Bet365:

    Ferguson 8/11
    Cerrone 11/10


    All over that price for Tony here.




  • Have gone for Ansaroff here. I think she's got a much better shot that the odds suggest. Got 7.50 on Tuesday but down to 6.00 at present


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,466 ✭✭✭tinpib


    I think there is value in that Ansaroff/Suarez fight. Suarez is best price 1.14 right now, but you can get her to win by decision at 2.75, with the huge percentage of women's fights that go to decision it is a no-brainer with that big price difference.


    The other value bet that stood out to me was Jimmie Rivera best price 3.75 I wasn't terribly impressed by Petr Yan last time. Lot of hype around him, was expecting him to take his opponents head clean off his shoulders last time so found him a bit underwhelming. So could be yet another UFC hype train getting derailed, Rivera is very experienced and has fought some of the best.


    Not saying he will definitely win but I think the odds should be a lot closer so again he is a good value bet.


    Brilliant card tonight, was going through previous PPV and the last good one was March with Jones/Smith, before that was probably this time last year also in Chicago.


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