Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

12628303132

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Deeper we go, Solar Radio Flux is now at the lowest I've seen it at 63.5, possibly the lowest ever recorded value ??

    https://spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php

    NOAA expecting it to slip deeper still and flatline over the coming years -

    solar-cycle-10-cm-radio-flux.gif

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 18 days
    2019 total: 217 days (74%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)
    Updated 21 Oct 2019


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    NK76 wrote: »
    Sorry for being thick but what are the implications of this upon our weather or climate in the immiediette short term ? Basic answer please for a basic brain&#55357;&#56842;

    Hopefully Seabreezes link explains it for you. Basically we aren't sure what the implications are for our climate but in the past ; Deep solar minium has occured at the same time as much colder periods, particularly over north west Europe. It remains to be seen how much of a role solar activity plays in this process but atleast now it looks like we will be able to observe any affects casued by a deep minimum with modern equipment and technology.

    These colder periods/solar minimums coincided with heightened volcanic activity too - a factor that muddys the water a bit in terms of climate impact but may infact be a part of the process/impact.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,551 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Hopefully Seabreezes link explains it for you. Basically we aren't sure what the implications are for our climate but in the past ; Deep solar minium has occured at the same time as much colder periods, particularly over north west Europe. It remains to be seen how much of a role solar activity plays in this process but atleast now it looks like we will be able to observe any affects casued by a deep minimum with modern equipment and technology.

    These colder periods/solar minimums coincided with heightened volcanic activity too - a factor that muddys the water a bit in terms of climate impact but may infact be a part of the process/impact.

    Hopefully it surpasses the 2008 total.

    I recall thinking back in 2010 if the low solar activity had somehow a role to play in the Iceland Volcano erupting.




  • BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Hopefully Seabreezes link explains it for you. Basically we aren't sure what the implications are for our climate but in the past ; Deep solar minium has occured at the same time as much colder periods, particularly over north west Europe. It remains to be seen how much of a role solar activity plays in this process but atleast now it looks like we will be able to observe any affects casued by a deep minimum with modern equipment and technology.

    These colder periods/solar minimums coincided with heightened volcanic activity too - a factor that muddys the water a bit in terms of climate impact but may infact be a part of the process/impact.
    Just seen on the RTÉ news that this autumn has been such a washout that the potato harvesting is severely delayed. Probably too early to make the connection, but it will be interesting to see if we get the same cold winters we did a decade or so ago.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,682 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Deeper we go, Solar Radio Flux is now at the lowest I've seen it at 63.5, possibly the lowest ever recorded value ??

    https://spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php

    NOAA expecting it to slip deeper still and flatline over the coming years -

    solar-cycle-10-cm-radio-flux.gif

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 18 days
    2019 total: 217 days (74%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)
    Updated 21 Oct 2019

    If Solar activity drops to the levels shown on those charts beyond 2023 I think we would be looking at a solar minimum of the likes not seen since the Maunder minimum which started back in the 17th century.

    I'm just wondering if that chart is only showing the end of cycle 24 and not where cycle 25 is picking up? It seems to completely contradict there previous forecast for cycle 25 earlier in the year.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    If Solar activity drops to the levels shown on those charts beyond 2023 I think we would be looking at a solar minimum of the likes not seen since the Maunder minimum which started back in the 17th century.

    I'm just wondering if that chart is only showing the end of cycle 24 and not where cycle 25 is picking up? It seems to completely contradict there previous forecast for cycle 25 earlier in the year.

    I'm not 100% sure but NOAA atleast seem to be projecting a serious drop off in activity in the coming years if I'm reading this correctly?

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/predicted-sunspot-number-and-radio-flux
    Predicted_Sunspot_Numbers_and_Radio_Flux: Predict.txt
    :Created: 2019 Oct 07 0300 UTC
    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).
    # Please send comments and suggestions to swpc.webmaster@noaa.gov
    #
    # Sunspot Number: S.I.D.C. Brussels International Sunspot Number.
    # 10.7cm Radio Flux value: Penticton, B.C. Canada.
    # Predicted values are based on the consensus of the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel.
    #
    # See the README3 file for further information.
    #
    # Missing or not applicable data: -1
    #
    # Predicted Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
    # With Expected Ranges
    #
    #
    Sunspot Number
    ----10.7 cm Radio Flux----
    # YR MO PREDICTED HIGH LOW PREDICTED HIGH LOW
    #
    2019 04 2.8 3.8 1.8 69.4 70.4 68.4
    2019 05 2.9 4.9 0.9 68.9 69.9 67.9
    2019 06 3.1 6.1 0.1 68.3 70.3 66.3
    2019 07 3.1 8.1 0.0 67.6 70.6 64.6
    2019 08 3.2 8.2 0.0 66.9 70.9 62.9
    2019 09 3.2 9.2 0.0 66.1 70.1 62.1
    2019 10 3.0 10.0 0.0 65.2 70.2 60.2
    2019 11 2.8 9.8 0.0 64.4 70.4 60.0
    2019 12 2.8 10.8 0.0 63.7 70.7 60.0
    2020 01 2.9 11.9 0.0 63.1 71.1 60.0
    2020 02 3.1 12.1 0.0 62.6 70.6 60.0
    2020 03 3.2 13.2 0.0 62.0 71.0 60.0
    2020 04 3.1 13.1 0.0 61.6 70.6 60.0
    2020 05 2.8 12.8 0.0 61.3 70.3 60.0
    2020 06 2.6 12.6 0.0 61.1 70.1 60.0
    2020 07 2.4 12.4 0.0 60.9 69.9 60.0
    2020 08 2.2 12.2 0.0 60.7 69.7 60.0
    2020 09 2.0 12.0 0.0 60.6 69.6 60.0
    2020 10 1.9 11.9 0.0 60.4 69.4 60.0
    2020 11 1.7 11.7 0.0 60.3 69.3 60.0
    2020 12 1.6 11.6 0.0 60.2 69.2 60.0
    2021 01 1.5 11.5 0.0 60.0 69.0 60.0
    2021 02 1.3 11.3 0.0 59.9 68.9 60.0
    2021 03 1.2 11.2 0.0 59.8 68.8 60.0
    2021 04 1.1 11.1 0.0 59.7 68.7 60.0
    2021 05 1.0 11.0 0.0 59.6 68.6 60.0
    2021 06 0.9 10.9 0.0 59.6 68.6 60.0
    2021 07 0.9 10.9 0.0 59.5 68.5 60.0
    2021 08 0.8 10.8 0.0 59.4 68.4 60.0
    2021 09 0.7 10.7 0.0 59.4 68.4 60.0
    2021 10 0.7 10.7 0.0 59.3 68.3 60.0
    2021 11 0.6 10.6 0.0 59.2 68.2 60.0
    2021 12 0.5 10.5 0.0 59.2 68.2 60.0
    2022 01 0.5 10.5 0.0 59.2 68.2 60.0
    2022 02 0.4 10.4 0.0 59.1 68.1 60.0
    2022 03 0.4 10.4 0.0 59.1 68.1 60.0
    2022 04 0.4 10.4 0.0 59.0 68.0 60.0
    2022 05 0.3 10.3 0.0 59.0 68.0 60.0
    2022 06 0.3 10.3 0.0 59.0 68.0 60.0
    2022 07 0.3 10.3 0.0 59.0 68.0 60.0
    2022 08 0.2 10.2 0.0 58.9 67.9 60.0
    2022 09 0.2 10.2 0.0 58.9 67.9 60.0
    2022 10 0.2 10.2 0.0 58.9 67.9 60.0
    2022 11 0.2 10.2 0.0 58.9 67.9 60.0
    2022 12 0.2 10.2 0.0 58.9 67.9 60.0

    solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif

    NASA on the other hand not predicting something quite so extreme -

    https://www.nasa.gov/msfcsolar

    oct2019f10_prd_plt_ext.png


    EDIT : Actually I think this is just the SC24 projection , not showing anything from SC25 as per the April forecast - still looks quiet and will be updated before years end but not Maunder style just yet...

    https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,682 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    I'm not 100% sure but NOAA atleast seem to be projecting a serious drop off in activity in the coming years if I'm reading this correctly?

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/predicted-sunspot-number-and-radio-flux



    solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif

    NASA on the other hand not predicting something quite so extreme -

    https://www.nasa.gov/msfcsolar

    oct2019f10_prd_plt_ext.png


    EDIT : Actually I think this is just the SC24 projection , not showing anything from SC25 as per the April forecast - still looks quiet and will be updated before years end but not Maunder style just yet...

    https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle

    I was wondering when I seen that chart as it did seem a very extreme prediction where levels flatline with no activity at all when it should be well into SC25.
    Still it will be interesting to see how things pan out in the coming year or 2, and what predictions come by the end of the year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    From Spaceweather.com -
    DEEP SOLAR MINIMUM: Last year, the sun was blank (without sunspots) for 221 days. That marked 2018 as a year of deep Solar Minimum. This year is shaping up to be even deeper. As of today, the sun in 2019 also has been blank for 221 days--and it's only October. 2019 is blowing past 2018 in the race to the bottom of the solar cycle, and by the end of the year could rank as the deepest Solar Minimum in a century


    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 22 days
    2019 total: 221 days (74%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)

    If we continue blank at the same rate as recently for the rest of the year I reckon we will finish up 75-79% blank.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,822 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    I see a few predictions for 270ish days for the year

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 838 ✭✭✭The_Brood


    Freezing spring, pretty much none existing summer, bone-chill winter-ish autumn...


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    From Spaceweather.com -




    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 22 days
    2019 total: 221 days (74%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)

    If we continue blank at the same rate as recently for the rest of the year I reckon we will finish up 75-79% blank.

    Hi,
    is this theory getting any recognition?

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3




  • bazlers wrote: »
    Hi,
    is this theory getting any recognition?

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3




    From that article
    The resulting summary curve reveals a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity reported in the past millennia including the significant grand solar minima: Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), Wolf minimum (1200), Oort minimum (1010–1050), Homer minimum (800–900 BC) combined with the grand solar maxima: the medieval warm period (900–1200), the Roman warm period (400–10BC) etc. It also predicts the upcoming grand solar minimum, similar to Maunder Minimum, which starts in 2020 and will last until 2055.


    ....


    The terrestrial temperature is expected to grow during maxima of 11 year solar cycles and to decrease during their minima. Furthermore, the substantial temperature decreases are expected during the two grand minima47 to occur in 2020–2055 and 2370–24156, whose magnitudes cannot be yet predicted and need further investigation. These oscillations of the estimated terrestrial temperature do not include any human-induced factors, which were outside the scope of the current paper.


    It looks like we could be entering a period of stagnating temperature rise or even a small drop in (average) global temperatures over the next couple of decades. The scary thing is that the cooling will probably cause significantly cooler temperatures in this part of the world along with the reduced crop production etc.


    It will also destroy the credibility of climate change advocates whose claims of "man-made global warming" will become completely discredited, however when the sun moves out of the quiet phase, there could be a rapid and relentless rise in global temperatures as CO2 levels could (probably) be 500+ by then.


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    First Sunspot in a while.

    SOLAR CYCLE 25 IS SLOWLY COMING TO LIFE: There's a sunspot (AR2750) on the sun today. That doesn't happen often during a deep Solar Minimum like the one we're experiencing now. AR2750 is a sign that Solar Minimum won't last forever. Its magnetic polarity marks it as a member of the next solar cycle. Indeed, Solar Cycle 25 is slowly coming to life, heralding a new Solar Maximum as early as 2023.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,107 ✭✭✭highdef


    Well that's a quick turnaround!


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Gloria Great Goose-step


    Just because of 1 spot ?




  • highdef wrote: »
    Well that's a quick turnaround!
    Not really, it's well known that the cycles overlay quite considerably as you can see from the chart below, all the cycles overlap.


    Active%20Region%20Count.png?w=700




    These overlaps do not mean that when a sunspot of the next cycle appears that the minimum has passed. The prediction of an early peak in cycle 25 as early as 2023 is interesting though, if correct then it will be a short weak cycle as predicted by others.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,551 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Getting closer to the 2009 total now. Hopefully this will be a case of history repeating itself; we get a really cold period during 2020/21.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    8 more blank days to match 2009, 16 more to match 2008. We're well on course to record the quietest year of the space age, baring any big increase in activity through December.

    Current Stretch: 16 days
    2019 total: 252 days (76%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)
    Updated 29 Nov 2019


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    We have now matched 2009 with 260 Days blank and are on course to comfortably beat 2008. 2019 will go down as one of the most blank years on record, definitely top 5 and most likely top 2/3.

    Current Stretch: 23 days
    2019 total: 260 days (76%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)
    Updated 07 Dec 2019

    191202-Maunder-Blog.jpg

    Edit: Above graph highlights 2018 (Not 2019) but I've included it to show the top 5 blank years to date^




  • The spotless count would have been higher if the single sub-day "pimples" hadn't been counted as spot days, There have been at least three recent spots that lasted only one day or less.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,682 ✭✭✭firemansam4




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Now up to 77% Blank for the year to date...

    Current Stretch: 28 days
    2019 total: 265 days (77%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Now up to 77% Blank for the year to date...



    Current Stretch: 28 days
    2019 total: 265 days (77%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)


    We are now equal to 2008.

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 31 days
    2019 total: 268 days (77%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)
    Updated 14 Dec 2019


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    bazlers wrote: »
    We are now equal to 2008.

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 31 days
    2019 total: 268 days (77%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)
    Updated 14 Dec 2019


    That's the space age record broken folks. 2008 record broken.
    ( and I promise I wont post every spotless day. Just thought it needed to be highlighted.)

    Updated 15 Dec 2019

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 32 days
    2019 total: 269 days (77%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)
    Updated 15 Dec 2019


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Blizzard and Elijah Cold Stack and I'm sure others that I'm forgetting have put great effort into this thread.
    A historic day guys. I have a feeling the next solar min will be weaker still if we are around to see it : 0

    Elijah Cold Stack do you see this continued minimum having a big influence on winters going forward? Ie 2020/21




  • bazlers wrote: »
    Blizzard and Elijah Cold Stack and I'm sure others that I'm forgetting have put great effort into this thread.
    A historic day guys. I have a feeling the next solar min will be weaker still if we are around to see it : 0

    Elijah Cold Stack do you see this continued minimum having a big influence on winters going forward? Ie 2020/21
    Possibly, just look back to the winters either end of 2010 both had periods of prolonged cold arctic air over the country.

    I am still unsure of exactly the connection works but I have read that reduced solar activity weakens the magnetic field in the upper atmosphere which allows in more cosmic rays and these "seed" clouds in the polar regions, then these become cloudier as a result.
    The clouds then trap more heat (a bit like extra CO2) thus slowing down the migration of warmer air northwards over the temperate regions of the earth (like northwest Europe) leaving us on the cold side.

    Well that's my theory.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,940 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    If one wanted to be pedantic about the solar cycle, comparing now to 2008/2009 wouldn't be really proper, since the Sun undergoes a polarity shift roughly every 11 years and the 2008/2009 Sun similarity shouldn't really be till 2030/2031.
    That's not to say 2019/2020 won't have similar weather. But ye know what I'm saying re pole locations on the Sun.

    The snowy winter weather seems to take a year's lag from solar minimum going on 09/10. So that's next winter 2020/2021 that could be expected to be the big one for this country. But then I'm half breaking my rule of not comparing to 11 years ago.
    Ok I'll stop now!! :pac: :D




  • If one wanted to be pedantic about the solar cycle, comparing now to 2008/2009 wouldn't be really proper, since the Sun undergoes a polarity shift roughly every 11 years and the 2008/2009 Sun similarity shouldn't really be till 2030/2031.
    That's not to say 2019/2020 won't have similar weather. But ye know what I'm saying re pole locations on the Sun.

    The snowy winter weather seems to take a year's lag from solar minimum going on 09/10. So that's next winter 2020/2021 that could be expected to be the big one for this country. But then I'm half breaking my rule of not comparing to 11 years ago.
    Ok I'll stop now!! :pac: :D
    Yes, not an exact science at all, the cold winters of 2010 were after the minimum, rather than in the middle of the minimum, so yes, if cold winters can directly be attributed to a deep solar minimum, then either this winter or next winter could have a prolonged cold spell. If the solar magnetic field reversing every two cycles (or is that every half cycle) has a direct affect on the weather, then we should expect severe winters every 22 years or so. i.e. every 22 years the solar and earth's poles oppose and then the opposite half they attract.
    Would be interesting to check toe records on that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    Possibly, just look back to the winters either end of 2010 both had periods of prolonged cold arctic air over the country.

    I am still unsure of exactly the connection works but I have read that reduced solar activity weakens the magnetic field in the upper atmosphere which allows in more cosmic rays and these "seed" clouds in the polar regions, then these become cloudier as a result.
    The clouds then trap more heat (a bit like extra CO2) thus slowing down the migration of warmer air northwards over the temperate regions of the earth (like northwest Europe) leaving us on the cold side.

    Well that's my theory.

    My understanding:
    A weakened solar magnetic field is the cause of the lower solar activity. This decreases the strength of the heliosphere and allows more cosmic radiation into our solar system and thus the earth.

    See around 7:50 in the vid SeaBreezes posted. The background field and solar field flip every 11 years. As the fields flip you will get the lowest sunspot activity but also a weakened Heliosphere. However, lower and lower sunspot activity overtime implies that the magnetic field loops are weak overall with the knock on implications for the Heliosphere strength.

    A weakened earths magnetic field will also amplify the amount of radiation getting into our atmosphere.

    Unfortunately the chart below only goes back to 2014 which was when the current cycle peaked but -

    stratosphere_california.png


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    Sorry to post back to soon but that chart I posted above coincidentally has been updated in the past week.

    e2s2.png?w=676

    https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/12/13/the-ironic-behavior-of-cosmic-rays/


Advertisement