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July 2015 Boards forecast contest

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    #32
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    How does lightning prediction work MT? There were 2500 flashes over northern france july 2nd. What if theres that many. How u count?


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    #33
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I will just be counting those hatch marks on the met.ie map, whether that's the total number or a scaled down version, it would be the same ratio to compare days. Also if it gets crowded on the maps, I can use large scale magnification, so we'll have to see what comes.

    Here's the count for 1 and 2 July according to the maps. ... I will only list counties if any county has 3 or more strikes after adjusting to area ... that means 9 for Cork or 1 for Louth, etc. We will keep this table going day by day ...

    DATE _______ TOTAL (land) STRIKES _________ Counties

    01 Jul _________ 3
    02 Jul _________ 20 ___________________ Galway (10 --> 4)


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    #34
    Schadenfreudia
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    Hmmmm....there is a very important name missing from the July forecast list ;)


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    #35
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Schadenfreudia wrote: »
    Hmmmm....there is a very important name missing from the July forecast list ;)

    Just as well he got in a provisional shot!


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    #36
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Yeah, I even thought to myself, hmm there are 24 regulars, who forgot to post?

    Will fix up that table and it may change Con Sensus slightly. :)


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    #37
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Lightning tracker updated for 3rd, watch this post because I will edit in the 4th after midnight rather than posting again. The county numbers are adjusted by area so that the number of strikes per unit of area will be comparable in the table. See previous posts for some details on that. If we ever get to saturation coverage and I can't magnify the map enough to count the strikes, I will go from a reasonable estimate based on the reported totals. So far that has not been an issue. :(


    DATE _______ TOTAL (land) STRIKES _________ Counties

    01 Jul __________ 3
    02 Jul _________ 20 ___________________ Galway (10 --> 4)
    03 Jul _________ 12 ___________________ Waterford (4 --> 5)
    04 Jul __________ 3


    NOTE: IMT was 16.9 C after three days.

    (On 4th, the met.ie map does not show about 10-20 strikes that I saw in real time on other lightning displays on meteociel ... but I am constrained by the rules to report what the source specified for the contest recorded ... I would say there would have been a max over Wexford in the weighted county numbers of about 5 or 6 ... hope this won't be an issue down the road if we see any really good outbreaks).


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    #38
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updated lightning tracker, Sunday 5th was by far the most active day yet ... heavy showers on Monday 6th had very few returns (post edit on 7th).

    DATE _______ TOTAL (land) STRIKES _________ Counties

    01 Jul __________ 3
    02 Jul _________ 20 ___________________ Galway (10 --> 4)
    03 Jul _________ 12 ___________________ Waterford (4 --> 5)
    04 Jul __________ 3
    05 Jul ________ 220 ___________ Cavan (80-->100), Longford (30-->75), Monaghan (30--> 60),
    __________Westmeath (20 --> 30), Louth (10--> 30), Donegal (30 --> 18), Offaly (10 --> 12)
    06 Jul __________ 1


    note: the adjusted numbers are from my estimates of strikes by county to strikes per average county size -- Roscommon is just about the standard for average size (using 2500 square km). The counties are listed in order of this adjusted figure not the raw count. So at this point, Cavan leads.

    Let me know if you think these are reasonable estimates, I am going from a total number that includes some outside of the Republic land mass.


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    #39
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Next time I update the lightning tracker, I will add in

    07 Jul ________________ 1

    Meanwhile, the first seven days are in the books and we have ...

    IMT at 15.8 C

    PRC at 200% even.

    SUN at 101% of normal.

    Doubt that either MAX or MIN were set last week, we'll pick up on that later.


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    #40
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    This needs updating although nothing much has happened since 6th ...

    DATE _______ TOTAL (land) STRIKES _________ Counties

    01 Jul __________ 3
    02 Jul _________ 20 ___________________ Galway (10 --> 4)
    03 Jul _________ 12 ___________________ Waterford (4 --> 5)
    04 Jul __________ 3
    05 Jul ________ 220 ___________ Cavan (80-->100), Longford (30-->75), Monaghan (30--> 60),
    __________Westmeath (20 --> 30), Louth (10--> 30), Donegal (30 --> 18), Offaly (10 --> 12)
    06 Jul __________ 1
    07 Jul __________ 1
    08 Jul __________ 0
    09 Jul __________ 2
    10 Jul __________ 1

    The IMT has dropped like a stone to 15.1 C. MIN on 9th of 4.0 at Dunsany (Grange). If MAX was that 24 deg reading on 1st then we're in trouble.


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    #41
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Next update of lightning (non) tracker will show 1 measly strike for each day 11-13.

    Perhaps Thursday will give us some action.


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    #42
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    14th also had no lightning activity ...

    Meanwhile, second week data gives us the following:

    IMT at 15.1 after a cool week (14.4).

    PRC now at 161% with the second week a somewhat less objectionable 122%.

    SUN has lost ground with the mean now at 74% after a week that managed only 46% -- the southwest was particularly overcast at about 20% of normal values.

    I don't see any of these trends changing much in the near term with considerable amounts of rain likely to keep the values at least as high as now if not higher, and not a lot of sun expected either after today (perhaps 75% will be maintained anyway).


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    #43
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    No lightning reached land on 15th, meanwhile slightly lower MIN with Dublin reporting 3.9 C on 15th. DOCARCH had that value with just three forecasts lower. Meanwhile dasa29 has the lowest MAX forecast of 24.5 which is looking more like a winner every day.


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    #44
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Finally some activity to update the lightning tracker ... only Waterford qualified on Thursday for the county census and it barely edged past Offaly on 5th into 7th place overall (after weighting for areas of counties). All the leaders remain from the 5th. As many of the guesses were in the last third of the month, lots left to decide on this bonus.

    DATE _______ TOTAL (land) STRIKES _________ Counties

    01 Jul __________ 3
    02 Jul _________ 20 ___________________ Galway (10 --> 4)
    03 Jul _________ 12 ___________________ Waterford (4 --> 5)
    04 Jul __________ 3
    05 Jul ________ 220 ___________ Cavan (80-->100), Longford (30-->75), Monaghan (30--> 60),
    __________Westmeath (20 --> 30), Louth (10--> 30), Donegal (30 --> 18), Offaly (10 --> 12)
    06 Jul __________ 1
    07 Jul __________ 1
    08 Jul __________ 0
    09 Jul __________ 2
    10-13 Jul ________1
    14-15 Jul ________0
    16 Jul _________ 15 __________ Waterford (10 ---> 13)


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    #45
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    ME forecasting lightening tomorrow.
    Harps hopes it's centred in Cavan for bullseye.


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    #46
    Schadenfreudia
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    ME forecasting lightening tomorrow.
    Harps hopes it's centred in Cavan for bullseye.

    Cavan would be in the 25-ring; Westmeath is the bullseye! ;)


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    #47
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    I hope Dublin will get the best or the worst of the lightning what ever way you put it today or tonight.


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    #48
    Schadenfreudia
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    I hope Dublin will get the best or the worst of the lightning what ever way you put it

    Dublin would be the bedroom wall :D


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    #49
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Despite the potential and radar appearance, only one confirmed lightning strike on land for the 18th. However, the system was not quite done at midnight so we'll have to see what the map for Sunday 19th shows.


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    #50
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    19th and 20th failed to register more than 2 strikes on either day, so on to the next event which looks like being around Monday 27th at this rate.


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    #51
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks now ...

    IMT has sunk to 14.7 after a very cool third week (13.8).

    PRC back up to 170% of normal with the week at 187%.

    SUN has improved to 82% thanks to almost normal amounts in third week (98%).

    Lightning tracker saw no further action on 21st.


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    #52
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Not much sign of new Max either.
    Looks like low scores all round.


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    #53
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Max for the whole Summer possibly reached already

    Currently looks like jetstream to the south for next 2 weeks so temps in mid teens n lots of rain


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    #54
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updates ... Friday 24th registered a grand total of five strikes, two in Wexford and two near the Meath-Louth border. As these are all borderline for counties I am going to score those three counties at three each which gets them honourable mention in our county by county log ...

    DATE _______ TOTAL (land) STRIKES _________ Counties

    01 Jul __________ 3
    02 Jul _________ 20 ___________________ Galway (10 --> 4)
    03 Jul _________ 12 ___________________ Waterford (4 --> 5)
    04 Jul __________ 3
    05 Jul ________ 220 ___________ Cavan (80-->100), Longford (30-->75), Monaghan (30--> 60),
    ______________________ Westmeath (20 --> 30), Louth (10--> 30), Donegal (30 --> 18), Offaly (10 --> 12)
    06-15 Jul ______ 0-2
    16 Jul _________ 15 __________ Waterford (10 ---> 13)
    17-23 Jul ______ 0-2
    24 Jul _________ 5 ___________ Wexford, Meath, Louth register min score of 3 (adjusted for area)

    There appears to be some chance of Sunday and possibly Monday making a bit of noise in this contest, so stay tuned. Scoring this will be a nightmare but I brought it upon myself, so.


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    #55
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    And to heap misery upon misery, Mt Dillon reported a new min of 3.2 yesterday.


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    #56
    Schadenfreudia
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    And to heap misery upon misery, Mt Dillon reported a new min of 3.2 yesterday.

    Still nearly 3 degrees above the (national) July record - all still to play for!


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    #57
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Updates ... Friday 24th registered a grand total of five strikes, two in Wexford and two near the Meath-Louth border. As these are all borderline for counties I am going to score those three counties at three each which gets them honourable mention in our county by county log ...

    DATE _______ TOTAL (land) STRIKES _________ Counties

    01 Jul __________ 3
    02 Jul _________ 20 ___________________ Galway (10 --> 4)
    03 Jul _________ 12 ___________________ Waterford (4 --> 5)
    04 Jul __________ 3
    05 Jul ________ 220 ___________ Cavan (80-->100), Longford (30-->75), Monaghan (30--> 60),
    ______________________ Westmeath (20 --> 30), Louth (10--> 30), Donegal (30 --> 18), Offaly (10 --> 12)
    06-15 Jul ______ 0-2
    16 Jul _________ 15 __________ Waterford (10 ---> 13)
    17-23 Jul ______ 0-2
    24 Jul _________ 5 ___________ Wexford, Meath, Louth register min score of 3 (adjusted for area)

    There appears to be some chance of Sunday and possibly Monday making a bit of noise in this contest, so stay tuned. Scoring this will be a nightmare but I brought it upon myself, so.

    A bit confused by the scoring myself but am I right to assume that Cavan is currently top of the rankings?


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    #58
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Yes -- the scoring is adjusted so that county size is weighted. Scroll back to middle of page one and you'll find a link that I posted for county sizes in square kms. Basically, the average is about 2500 sq km and I then adjust the count by the ratio of county size to that average (a smaller than average county sees an increase). In the case of Cavan on the 5th, I estimated 80 strikes and then adjusted that to 100 because Cavan is about 4/5 of the average size (so 80 x 5/4 = 100). This adjustment was made each time a county would score an adjusted total of 3 or more and you can see the results of that in the table.

    Meanwhile, the update for the 25th (I suspect the days are GMT days which means they run 01h to 01h civil time) is as follows:

    25 Jul ___________ 3 _______________ (Kerry had all three but the adjusted score is 2 due to size)

    About 100 strikes were depicted 50-100 kms off the southwest coast so we may find that Sunday 26th registers a more impressive number.


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    #59
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The map for the 26th shows about 15 strikes very close to the Cork-Kerry border, so I will enter them this way:

    26 Jul _____________ 15 ________ Kerry 7 ----> 4 and Cork 8 ---> 3

    If memory serves me Waterways has the 27th and I went for the 28th, so we both have some chance of a minor points award, although it's looking very much like the 5th will trump all other contenders.

    Last time I checked the IMT had sagged all the way down to 14.3 and so we'll be needing the ever handy minimum progression rule there.


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    #60
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Well, that worked out pretty nicely for me with plenty of lightning strikes on 28th in Wicklow ... here's my estimate of what happened, will consider any input.

    27th ____________ 0

    28th ____________ 70 ___________ Wicklow 20 ---> 25 Wexford 11
    > 12, Kildare 8 ---> 12,
    _____________________ Carlow 4 ---> 11 Dublin 3 ---> 9, Laois 5 --> 8, Waterford 5 ---> 6

    Watch for updates on all contest data later today.


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    #61
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So at this point, the scores for various lightning dates (see post number 1 for the rationale) work out this way:

    01 _ 1
    02 _ 2
    03 _ 3
    04 _ 4
    05 _ 5
    06 _ 4
    07 _ 3
    08 _ 2
    09 _ 1
    10 _ 0
    11 _ 0
    12 _ 0
    13 _ 0
    14 _ 1
    15 _ 2
    16 _ 3
    17 _ 2
    18 _ 1
    19 _ 0
    20 _ 0
    21 _ 0
    22 _ 0
    23 _ 0
    24 _ 1
    25 _ 2
    26 _ 3
    27 _ 3
    28 _ 4
    29 _ 3
    30 _ 2
    31 _ 1 (the last four can change if 30th or 31st make it past 4th place).

    This is how I plan to score the counties (if they appear more than once, highest weighted score counts):

    Top 3 (all on 5th) _ 5 points _ Cavan, Longford, Monaghan
    Next 3 (5th, 28th) _ 4 points _ Westmeath, Louth, Wicklow
    Next 6 (similar) _ 3 points _ Offaly, Waterford, Carlow, Kildare, Laois, Wexford, Donegal
    Any other county that is mentioned _ 2 points _ Kerry, Cork, Meath, Dublin
    Any other guess _ 1 point

    As there is some chance of further lightning these lists are subject to revision.


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