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Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread

24567…30

Comments

  • #32
    Humberto Salazar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    Things not looking as good as yesterday. Ah well, twas ever thus.


  • #33
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,433 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Humberto Salazar wrote: »
    Things not looking as good as yesterday. Ah well, twas ever thus.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESzxGYDkwG8


    :p


  • #34
    jimmynokia
    Registered Users Posts: 6,467 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    This better happen I'm all set. On night shift tonight covering good area and mileage so fingers crossed cameras and dashcams at the ready.. Off to bed now.


  • #35
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,433 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    On a serious note nothing has changed, no need to panic, ignore these Kildare people.

    They always complaining.

    It will be an interesting evening :cool:


  • #36
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,114 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    On a serious note nothing has changed, no need to panic, ignore these Kildare people.

    They always complaining.

    It will be an interesting evening :cool:

    Lol always bickering. Think it’s being so close to Dublin that causes it ;)

    See what the morning models bring.


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  • #37
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Sorry lads, I am on team downgrade too. I do not believe there will be exceptionally widespread storms today. Localised but not much different to last week.

    Let's see


  • #38
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,433 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    There is bit of deviation in the high res models but the closer to the east and also further north you are the better the chances. There is also a good prospect for those in the north midlands and up to the northwest of the country.

    Ultimately it's a nowcast today and we will have to watch how it develops.

    It will be interesting, that's for sure.


  • #39
    Humberto Salazar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    Well, I've bought my ticket for the show like everyone else. But ME forecast has gone from 'will develop' yesterday to 'a risk of' this morning. That's a downgrade in their language. Also Ulster now mentioned as greatest risk. So, less widespread, & less risk. Now, having said that I'm still open to be convinced again. Have at it.


  • #40
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,433 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Humberto Salazar wrote: »
    Well, I've bought my ticket for the show like everyone else. But ME forecast has gone from 'will develop' yesterday to 'a risk of' this morning. That's a downgrade in their language. Also Ulster now mentioned as greatest risk. So, less widespread, & less risk. Now, having said that I'm still open to be convinced again. Have at it.

    Where are you in the country broadly?


  • #41
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,433 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    A thunderstorm has developed on the north Antrim coast and is ongoing. It shows instability is rising and we should see storms develop with reasonable ease by this evening in this air mass away from west and southwest coasts.


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  • #42
    Humberto Salazar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Where are you in the country broadly?

    Offaly. So right in the sweet spot yesterday evening...


  • #43
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Lets see what MT has to say this morning. Then we will know if its good night Irene:)


  • #44
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,433 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Humberto Salazar wrote: »
    Offaly. So right in the sweet spot yesterday evening...

    It's important to note this is a "nowcast" from here, the models mean little now. You still have a good chance of a storm, just keep up to date with satellite/radar on here.

    These setups always spring surprises too.


  • #45
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,684 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Simple Minds playing on the radio atm....a sure sign! :pac:


  • #46
    Jin luk
    Registered Users Posts: 388 ✭✭Jin luk


    Ive waited 26years for major storms like these are suppose to be to hit here at home in ireland really thought i missed out last week when tipp got the big 1s please let us have something special later.

    Will take a lot to beat the storm i seen on the south east coast of spain last year was like strobe lighting that night.


  • #47
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,318 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I'm as confused as anybody.

    Lightning for Dublin around 02-04h possibly? Scattered storms in the southeast overnight.

    Other cells that might be rather dormant moving into the midlands late afternoon erupting over west Ulster evening and overnight. I think those two clusters will be most significant, can't rule out activity further west.

    Plenty of lightning at present time in northern Spain and some entrainment towards s.w. England past Brittany this morning. With the heat building over Britain potential looks reasonable, GFS rainfall accumulations support the overnight development idea.


  • #48
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The notable thing about elevated storms this evening - if you do manage to be lucky enough to be in the right place - will be the lack of thunder with a lot of the lightning, or just short distant rumbles. There will be some prime locations that will see action but there will also be those who will see nothing too, or only very briefly. We're not going to see wall-to-wall coverage covering the whole CAPE area.

    Just to manage expectations. Hopefully everyone will get a share but I doubt it.


  • #49
    Rock Lesnar
    Registered Users Posts: 11,880 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    BBC only going with with showers up along the east coast starting around 8pm, nothing much before that


  • #50
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,433 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    bazlers wrote: »
    Lets see what MT has to say this morning. Then we will know if its good night Irene:)


    There is cross model agreement on thunderstorms moving south to north from later this afternoon. Exact locations (most likely in the east and north) remain to be determined but it's a 'now cast' from now on.

    There are already storms developing in northern counties and just to northwest of France which is a good sign.

    Sit back and enjoy.:)


  • #51
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    ESTOFEX discussion.
    A level 1 was issued across northern Spain and northern Portugal across the Bay of Biscay into the south-western British Isles mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.
    ...

    SYNOPSIS

    A blocking ridge covers most of Europe, with a mid-level jet curving around it. A frontal zone extends from western Europe into Scandinavia and western Russia with some frontal waves embedded. Enhanced low-level moisture can be found close to these frontal waves especially across western Europe, central Scandinavia, and western/southern Russia. This moisture paerty overlaps with plumes of mid-level lapse rates across western Europe and central Scandinavia. A cut-off low is centred to the north of the Alps. A moist air mass across the Balkans and Poland is advected around the cut-off toards northern Germany.

    DISCUSSION

    Western Europe

    Along the frontal zone with twi main frontal waves moving north, steep mid-level lapse rates are present. Elevated CAPE will be in the 1000 J/kg range and surface-based CAPE can develop during the day over the land. With moderate shear, multicells are forecast, capable of producing locally large hail and severe wind gusts. Over France, shear is weak, but increasing lift late in the period can result in storms spreading into the region with excessive rain the main threat, but some large hail is also not ruled out. Isolated storms are forecast across central Spain with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threat given moderate shear and inverted-v profiles.


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  • #52
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,433 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    I'm as confused as anybody.

    Lightning for Dublin around 02-04h possibly? Scattered storms in the southeast overnight.

    Other cells that might be rather dormant moving into the midlands late afternoon erupting over west Ulster evening and overnight. I think those two clusters will be most significant, can't rule out activity further west.

    Plenty of lightning at present time in northern Spain and some entrainment towards s.w. England past Brittany this morning. With the heat building over Britain potential looks reasonable, GFS rainfall accumulations support the overnight development idea.

    The hi res models are no use here now. It's all to play for from this evening, away from west Munster and west Connaught all areas are at risk of decent storm potential.

    Always wary of the surprise with these setups - because there is always something. What would not surprise me at all is serious lightning potential across the eastern and northern parts of the country. Elsewhere it's more touch and go.


  • #53
    SlowMotion321
    Registered Users Posts: 415 ✭✭SlowMotion321


    As usual it's expect the least and hope for the best


  • #54
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »



    Most places can expect to see lightning either over head or in the distance but perhaps midlands and northwest might go a little beyond the storms elsewhere in terms of intensity.

    Sorry, but does that mean NW and Midlands will get more intense storms or least intense?


  • #55
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,433 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Bank! :p

    euro4_uk1-1-22-0.png?25-05

    All models in the same vain but like I say it's only narrowly indicative at this stage. All about obs watching from now on :)


  • #56
    The One Doctor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,339 ✭✭✭The One Doctor


    SlowMotion321 wrote: »
    As usual it's expect the least and hope for the best

    That's my weather philosophy too. Oh well, a few rumbles would be nice.


  • #57
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,433 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Pangea wrote: »
    Sorry, but does that mean NW and Midlands are most at risk , or least at risk?

    Sligo may be a bit far west but, again, just keep up to date with the observations. It's not a forecast anymore. Storms could pop up randomly in a lot of places away from west Connaught and Munster coasts later today.


    EDIT: Sligo is not too far west. What am I thinking! :D


  • #58
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Never quoted you KDF. Wouldnt doubt you for a second��


  • #59
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Pangea wrote: »
    Sorry, but does that mean NW and Midlands will get more intense storms or least intense?

    I would say if there is much action they will get the best of it. Roscommon Leitrim Donegal etc


  • #60
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,433 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    bazlers wrote: »
    Never quoted you KDF. Wouldnt doubt you for a second��

    My mistake! :)


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  • #61
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Looking through the models this morning and bearing in mind the trends of the last few runs I am thinking storms breaking out in the SE late afternoon / early evening ( maybe a bit of S also), migrating N to cover the E, Midlands, mid W, N and NW. The big population areas of the E has a fairly high chance of thunderstorms by late evening. Thinking that along or off the SE and E coasts could see plenty of storms. The Northern counties could see storms well into the early hours and could peak here.


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