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|June 2020 Boards weather forecast contest
Comments
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MTC doesn't do Penguin books - tis a pity
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Sorry about the confusion on that question, I made several attempts to explain which I don't think were entirely successful all round, but here's another way of looking at what was sought ... the last ten days of the month were being treated like a month, and I was looking for the rainfall trend for the period relative to what would normally fall. I made the assumption that the rainfall rates in that interval are similar to the blend of June and July which in any case have similar monthly averages at all the stations. The weekly ag reports seem to make this same assumption (they also give you rainfalls in terms of percentages of normal for seven days rather than the ten that I had in the bonus).
So maybe I thought it was a more familiar concept since we have had weekly reports on our threads for many years now and these contain statements like "third week wet, 250% of normal rainfall fell" applying to that specific period.
Anyway, if most people thought it meant a different thing, then the answers are still probably scaled to the same general concept, would it be wet or dry? And it was wet, no getting around that. FWIW, I would say about half the month's rain fell in the ten days and perhaps as much as 60%. But that wasn't the answer sought.
I could add that based on rainfall data sets that I work with (that run for decades) the average daily precip tends to vary more than average daily temperature, but it is believed to be a random process, driven by the random occurrence of a few large events on certain days that miss other nearby days. Over the course of a year the daily precip averages may form a recognizable pattern but over a few consecutive days they tend to bounce up and down quite a bit, if the daily average for a month is 2.5 mm then it would not surprise me to see days with averages below 1.8 or above 3.2 even after a century of observations. This probably begins to smooth out on a weekly or ten day scale and certainly fades out of the picture when you average daily amounts for consecutive months.0 -
From the MS have confirmed our June numbers as:
IMT 13.8
MAX 27.1
MIN 2.5
PRC 128%
SUN 75%
Bonus ... 220% of normal rain 21-30
So that brings about the scoring for June which follows ...
June 2020 Contest Scoring
FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus__ TOTALS
Adam240610 __________24 _ 19 _ 12 _ 09*_ 06__10 _____ 80
Pauldry ______________ 17 _ 14 _ 15 _ 15*_ 08__10 _____ 79
___ NormaL __________ 23 _ 16 _ 10 _ 13*_ 08 __ 8 _____ 78
M.T. Cranium _________ 21 _ 14 _ 13 _ 12*_ 06 __ 9 _____ 75
Sunflower3____________24 _ 11 _ 16 _ 08*_ 05 __ 7 _____ 71
DOCARCH ____________ 25 _ 20 _ 13 _ 04*_ 04 __ 3 _____ 69
200motels ____________23 _ 15 _ 06 _ 06*_ 07 __ 8 _____ 65
___ Con Sensus ________23 _ 07 _ 15 _ 08*_ 06 __ 5 _____ 64
dasa29 _______________23 _ 06 _ 15 _ 12*_ 04 __ 3 _____ 63
Jpmarn _______________24 _ 14 _ 00 _ 10*_ 05 __ 9 _____ 62
Dacogawa ____________ 17 _ 03 _ 11 _ 11*_ 10 __ 7 _____ 59
mickger844posts _______12 _ 10 _ 15 _ 13*_ 06 __ 3 _____ 59
Joe Public ____________ 24 _ 00 _ 11 _ 14*_ 02 __ 8 _____ 59
john mac _____ (-2) ____24 _ 07 _ 06 _ 12*_ 06 __ 4 _ 59-2=57
sryanbruen ___________ 22 _ 12 _ 05 _ 05*_ 07 __ 3 _____ 54
KIndred Spirit _________ 18 _ 00 _ 20 _ 05*_ 04 __ 6 _____ 53
Artane2002 ___________ 20 _ 08 _ 09 _ 03*_ 06 __ 4 _____ 50
MrStonewall ___________25 _ 00 _ 11 _ 07*_ 04 __ 3 _____ 50
Bsal _________________ 22 _ 06 _ 05 _ 08*_ 06 __ 2 _____ 49
Mrskinner _____ (-1) ___ 20 _ 05 _ 12 _ 03*_ 03 __ 7 _ 50-1=49
Appledrop ____________ 05 _ 06 _ 14 _ 04*_ 10 __ 7 _____ 46
Tae laidir _____________ 19 _ 03 _ 13 _ 02*_ 04 __ 4 _____ 45
waterways ____________ 16 _ 01 _ 16 _ 02*_ 01 __ 6 _____ 42
Rikand _______ (-3) ____18 _ 00 _ 05 _ 12*_ 04 __ 5 _ 44-3=41
Tazio _______ (-6) _____13 _ 04 _ 00 _ 10*_ 08 __ 6 _ 41-6=35
BLIZZARD7 ___________ 06 _ 00 _ 05 _ 01*_ 02 __ 1 _____ 15
____________________________
* The PRC scores were too low and required the boost of minimum progression. The best forecasts did not have high raw scores so I gave a boost throughout the field despite the generally poor trend of our forecasts (the dry first half of the month as shown in guidance at forecast time was only discarded by one forecaster to any extent but he went a bit too high as it turned out, although had our PRC grid included some other locations perhaps not so much). ... anyway we all got points we probably didn't earn in that category ... Although MAX scoring was not that great, it did not qualify for a boost (fewer than one-third of the scores were zero, and highest scores were 20 and 19 so the rules require these elements not to be present for the boost to be used). SUN was scored from 90 rather than 75 as a form of minimum progression, this simply gives everyone 3 bonus points.
Forecasts follow ... and the annual scoring update will be posted later today.
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Congrats to Adam240610 and Pauldry for wringing high scores out of that mess.
================================================---- >>>
Forecasts (actual)
FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Bonus
Appledrop ____________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 1.9 _ 065 _ 090 __ 80%
BLIZZARD7 ___________ 15.7 _ 30.7 _ 1.0 _ 045 _ 130 __ 10%
waterways ____________14.7 _ 29.0 _ 2.1 _ 055 _ 135 __ 59%
Dacogawa ____________ 14.6 _ 28.8 _ 1.6 _ 089 _ 092 __ 80%
KIndred Spirit _________ 14.5 _ 30.0 _ 2.5 _ 070 _ 122 __ 70%
Rikand _______ (-3) ___ 14.5 _ 30.0 _ 1.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 50%
Tae laidir _____________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 062 _ 118 __ 35%
Mrskinner _____ (-1) ___ 14.3 _ 28.6 _ 1.7 _ 065 _ 126 __ 85%
Artane2002 ___________ 14.3 _ 28.3 _ 1.4 _ 065 _ 112 __ 45%
sryanbruen ___________ 14.1 _ 27.9 _ 1.0 _ 070 _ 105 __ 25%
dasa29 _______________14.0 _ 28.5 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 30%
200motels ____________ 14.0 _ 27.6 _ 1.1 _ 071 _ 103 __ 88%
___ Con Sensus _______ 14.0 _ 28.4 _ 2.0 _ 075 _ 111 __ 50%
Sunflower3____________ 13.9 _ 28.0 _ 2.1 _ 075 _ 115 __ 80%
Jpmarn _______________13.9 _ 26.5 _ 0.5 _ 085 _ 115 __105%
MrStonewall ___________13.8 _ 29.4 _ 1.6 _ 074 _ 121 __ 30%
DOCARCH ____________ 13.8 _ 27.1 _ 1.8 _ 068 _ 121 __ 30%
Joe Public ____________ 13.7 _ 29.4 _ 3.4 _ 101 _ 130 __ 89%
john mac _____ (-2) ____13.7 _ 28.4 _ 1.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 40%
Adam240610 __________13.7 _ 27.2 _ 3.3 _ 078 _ 110 __ 130%
___ NormaL __________ 13.6 _ 27.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __100%
Bsal _________________13.5 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 075 _ 110 __ 20%
M.T. Cranium _________ 13.4 _ 26.5 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 110 __105%
Pauldry ______________ 13.0 _ 27.7 _ 3.0 _ 150 _ 101 __160%
Tazio _______ (-6) _____12.6 _ 25.5 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 100 __ 57%
mickger844posts _______12.5 _ 28.1 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 110 __ 30%0 -
Updated Annual Scoring Summary January to June 2020
The number in brackets after your rank (total score) is last month's rank. The number in brackets after your best 5/6 total (end of the row) is your rank in that statistic. This will be tracked in similar proportions to September when it changes to best 7/9 and begins to order the table, at which point total score will be tracked as the secondary value.
rank _ FORECASTER ______ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun __TOTAL___ Best 5/6 (rank)
01_(01)_ Mrskinner ________86 _ 54 _ 72 _ 61 _ 60 _ 49 __ 382 ____ 333 (1)
02_(02)_ Kindred Spirit _____61 _ 63 _ 71 _ 71 _ 60 _ 53 __ 379 ____ 326 (2)
(03)_(03)___ Con Sensus ___ 70 _ 62 _ 59 _ 69 _ 57 _ 64 __ 381 ____ 324 (3)
(03)_(08)__ NormaL _______ 70 _ 50 _ 73 _ 55 _ 52 _ 78 __ 378 ____ 328 (2)
03_(06)_Dacogawa _________73 _ 64 _ 53 _ 51 _ 62 _ 59 __ 362 ____ 311 (t9)
04_(04) _sryanbruen _______ 47 _ 58 _ 88 _ 71 _ 43 _ 54 __ 361 ____ 318 (3)
05_(07)_mickger844posts ___ 55 _ 63 _ 60 _ 48 _ 74 _ 59 __ 359 ____ 311 (t9)
06_(10)_Sunflower3 ________68 _ 60 _ 50 _ 57 _ 51 _ 71 __ 357 ____ 307 (13)
07_(05)_Artane2002 _______ 56 _ 63 _ 65 _ 69 _ 52 _ 50 __ 355 ____ 305 (14)
t08_(11)_DOCARCH ________58 _ 61 _ 62 _ 50 _ 54 _ 69 __ 354 ____ 304 (15)
t08_(t13) _Adam240610 ____ 62 _ 38 _ 58 _ 69 _ 47 _ 80 __ 354 ____ 316 (4)
10_(08)_Joe Public _________70 _ 65 _ 42 _ 39 _ 78 _ 59 __ 353 ____ 314 (t6)
11_(16) _Pauldry __________ 63 _ 36 _ 58 _ 69 _ 46 _ 79 __ 351 ____ 315 (5)
12_(03)_Rikand ___________ 68 _ 38 _ 64 _ 73 _ 66 _ 41 __ 350 ____ 312 (8)
t13_(09)_Jpmarn __________ 86 _ 51 _ 50 _ 61 _ 39 _ 62 __ 349 ____ 310 (11)
t13_(t13)_M.T. Cranium _____69 _ 59 _ 60 _ 51 _ 35 _ 75 __ 349 ____ 314 (t6)
15_(12) _john mac _________64 _ 46 _ 52 _ 61 _ 59 _ 57 __ 339 ____ 293 (16)
16_(15)_Bsal ______________62 _ 54 _ 57 _ 52 _ 48 _ 49 __ 322 ____ 274 (18)
17_(17) _Tae laidir _________67 _ 49 _ 48 _ 49 _ 53 _ 45 __ 311 ____ 266 (19)
18_(18)_Dasa29 ___________48 _ 70 _ 55 _ 38 _ 53 _ 63 __ 327 ____ 289 (17)
19_(19) _BLIZZARD7 _______66 _ 36 _ 47 _ 44 _ 53 _ 15 __ 261 ____ 246 (21)
20_(20) _200motels ________47 _ --- _ 75 _ 61 _ 60 _ 65 __ 308 ____ 308 (12)
21_(21) _waterways ________--- _ 54 _ 42 _ 44 _ 67 _ 42 __ 249 ____ 249 (20)
22_(22)_Tazio ____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 35 ___103
23_(26)_Mr Stonewall ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 34 _ 50 ___ 84
24_(23)_JCXBXC __________ 58 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 58
25_(24)_WesternStorm _____ 54 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 54
26_(25)_esposito __________ 49 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 49
27_(---)_Appledrop ________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 ___ 47
=================================================
The annual scoring race is very competitive this year and there isn't much difference between ranks at this point.0
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