Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020

Well we all saw what a non event Monday was with the trough staying over the UK and not sending anything but bits of rain our way.

Later Weds or early Thurs into Thurs and possibly into Fri looks like a better set up for thunderstorms breaking out and charts already showing heavy rain potential in the South. Looking like relatively high temperatures Weds , ARPEGE showing up to 26C in the Southern half of the country but widespread 23 to 25C with very high DP's, showing temps of 19C at 03.00 Thurs and DP's in the high teens. Thurs best Temps in the Northern half of the country getting up around 23C and the Southern half getting up to the high teens and warmer in the SE possibly up to 22C or so, again Dp's in the high teens so very humid and sticky. Charts showing troughs transiting the country, common trend at the moment is for the best potential for thunderstorm activity is in the Southern half of the country and especially so along Southern coasts and would think the SE could be the sweet spot if storms break out going by the present runs, only my thoughts and as has been seen by the warnings from Met Eireann and The Met Office for last Monday it doesn't always go to plan. This looks different though, much more chance of storms I reckon, plenty of model watching tomorrow !

We might be seeing more great pictures from spookwoman

Some energy over in the UK.

Storm 10 wrote: »

Meteorite is there any chance of Thunder in the West as I have radio antennas on the roof I am always a bit weary of storms from the South and take them down I never worry about Winter ones

The Skew chart for near Galway at noon Thurs showing thunderstorms possible. No expert mind you.

Seeing TT readings of 48 and 49 in the area, 50 showing up also in the midlands.

TT = 45 to 50: Thunderstorms possible.
TT = 50 to 55: Thunderstorms more likely, possibly severe.
TT = 55 to 60: Severe thunderstorms most likely.

LI readings of -2 and -1 around Galway, there are some -3 readings like Castlecomer mid morning.


LI is generally scaled as follows:

LI 6 or Greater, Very Stable Conditions
LI Between 1 and 6 : Stable Conditions, Thunderstorms Not Likely
LI Between 0 and -2 : Slightly Unstable, Thunderstorms Possible, With Lifting Mechanism (i.e., cold front, daytime heating, ...)
LI Between -2 and -6 : Unstable, Thunderstorms Likely, Some Severe With Lifting Mechanism
LI Less Than -6: Very Unstable, Severe Thunderstorms Likely With Lifting Mechanism

Would really need to see the charts again tomorrow, will keep an eye on it. Gerry after the news mentioned possible heavy thundery showers and gave time talking about the heat and thunderstorms and unstable air mass making its way up from France and the UK in over Ireland later Weds into Thurs.

The K Index is a handy tool also to add to the mix, can see that the potential is there for thunderstorms, but would need to compare with tomorrows charts , explanation from Meteologix.com below.

Quote 'This map displays the forecast for the K-Index which is a measure of how favorable the atmosphere is for thunderstorm development. The K-Index uses factors like the mid level lapse rate (how fast the air cools with height in the mid levels of the atmosphere) and lower atmospheric moisture to predict how likely thunderstorm formation is. Generally speaking, values less than 20 don’t support thunderstorms, values between 20 and 35 get increasingly supportive of thunderstorms, and any values over 35 indicate a very high chance of thunderstorm formation. However it’s important to note that no single index can predict thunderstorm formation with any certainty. The K-Index, much like CAPE, is intended to give a general indication for how likely thunderstorms are.'

Insane CAPE levels over in the UK and watch all that energy move across over us ! Could even see some severe thunderstorms at this rate perhaps. Looking like a memorable weather event about to unfold.

ECM 06Z just out up to 10.00 tomorrow.