How long before Irish reunification?

Underpinning this is “a clear statistical trend towards a change in the religious minority-majority structure” of Northern Ireland and the “measurable trend towards a Catholic majority”.

‘Majority rule’
In this context, the 2011 census was a “demographic watershed”. For the first time, the proportion of the population declaring themselves as Protestant or brought up Protestant fell below 50 per cent: “In a society characterised by debates over ‘majority rule’, where consent by a majority underpins the legitimacy of the state, the absence of a religious majority is an important symbolic marker,” the report states.

There are other changes: only two of the North’s six counties, Antrim and Down, now have “significant Protestant majorities”, and only one – Lisburn – of its five official cities.

“Within a decade, Belfast will almost certainly have a Catholic majority,” it states; in effect, a majority Protestant Northern Ireland “is now restricted to the suburban area surrounding Belfast.”

This trend away from a Protestant majority “is likely to continue”. The main drivers of change are differing birth and death rates between the two communities, the effect of migration, and loss of affiliation, which is more pronounced in urban areas and in the east of Northern Ireland....

Both Queen’s and Ulster University have a majority of students from a Catholic background; conversely, 63 per cent of students who study in Britain do not return to Northern Ireland, and the report cites other studies which have suggested their numbers are disproportionately Protestant.... “Catholic communities that are younger and poorer may experience restrictions on space and/or availability of resources . . . older Protestant communities, which are losing residents, may experience a sense of community decline, dereliction and abandonment.”