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Level 5 lockdown essentially failed

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Comments

  • #122
    Boggles
    Registered Users Posts: 39,509 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    awec wrote: »
    Longer restrictions are of no consequence if there is no compliance.
    Boggles wrote: »
    Lower compliance will result in longer restrictions.

    .


  • #123
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,350 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Boggles wrote: »
    .

    Yes Boggles, we can all read your posts.

    People can bleat on about longer restrictions all they want, but the longer they go on the more compliance will fall.

    This is why every time restrictions are announced they are more and more lenient than before.

    It is why the level 5 we just had was nothing like the level 5 we had in March. It is why the government are already kite flying saying the next set of restrictions will not affect retail.


  • #124
    Boggles
    Registered Users Posts: 39,509 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    awec wrote: »
    Yes Boggles, we can all read your posts.

    So you misinterpreted what I said on purpose?

    It's not hard understand, the length of restrictions will be based largely on the incidence rate of the virus which is directly tied into the compliance rate among other variables.

    The particular poster thinks people not complying is a good thing. I fundamentally disagree based on the fact less compliance = more infection.

    Restrictions have been extended before, we are currently in an extended period at the moment.


  • #125
    landofthetree
    Registered Users Posts: 2,301 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    Ireland’s R number now stands at between 1.1 and 1.3, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly tells the Dáil.

    We will easily be at over 1000 cases by the 1st Jan.


  • #126
    JasonStatham
    Closed Accounts Posts: 548 ✭✭✭JasonStatham


    Lockdown in January lads. Well done.


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  • #127
    landofthetree
    Registered Users Posts: 2,301 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    Taoiseach
    @MichealMartinTD
    tells
    @mcculld
    he feels fresh restrictions are likely “before New Year’s Eve”.


  • #128
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    landofthetree wrote: »
    Ireland’s R number now stands at between 1.1 and 1.3, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly tells the Dáil.

    We will easily be at over 1000 cases by the 1st Jan.

    Do the maths


  • #129
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    So safe to say that lockdown did indeed fail as I said in the opening post.


  • #130
    MadYaker
    Registered Users Posts: 12,140 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    awec wrote: »
    Yes Boggles, we can all read your posts.

    People can bleat on about longer restrictions all they want, but the longer they go on the more compliance will fall.

    This is why every time restrictions are announced they are more and more lenient than before.

    It is why the level 5 we just had was nothing like the level 5 we had in March. It is why the government are already kite flying saying the next set of restrictions will not affect retail.

    The level system didn’t exist in March so that’s nonsense


  • #131
    MadYaker
    Registered Users Posts: 12,140 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    So safe to say that lockdown did indeed fail as I said in the opening post.

    How do you decide whether it succeeded or failed? what criteria do you look at?


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  • #132
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    MadYaker wrote: »
    How do you decide whether it succeeded or failed? what criteria do you look at?

    Social, health and economic devastation compared to the good it actually does at keeping cases low.

    We had level 5 for 6 full weeks and are already talking about going straight back after Christmas.

    How long does it take to bloody work?

    If we need it permanently, then we better get jabbing soon!


  • #133
    NIMAN
    Registered Users Posts: 32,975 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    Level 5 didn't work this time because it wasn't proper level 5.

    In many places things were going on as normal.

    Traffic was 70% of normal levels. Many non essential shops stayed open, or bent the rules to allow them to stay open. Schools, construction and many office workers were still out and about.

    It was nothing like the March level 5 at all. Night and day.


  • #134
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    NIMAN wrote: »
    Level 5 didn't work this time because it wasn't proper level 5.

    In many places things were going on as normal.

    Traffic was 70% of normal levels. Many non essential shops stayed open, or bent the rules to allow them to stay open. Schools, construction and many office workers were still out and about.

    It was nothing like the March level 5 at all. Night and day.

    It never will be like March again. That was a once in a lifetime thing.

    There is no appetite from the people to carry on like this.


  • #135
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,031 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Social, health and economic devastation compared to the good it actually does at keeping cases low.

    We had level 5 for 6 full weeks and are already talking about going straight back after Christmas.

    How long does it take to bloody work?

    If we need it permanently, then we better get jabbing soon!

    You can't blame the lockdown for people being idiots and spreading this thing!
    It's like you want to blame the government because people are assholes... Maybe blame the people who, after nearly a year of this, still don't seem to get it.

    Look at the numbers in northern Ireland today, would you rather be them or us?


  • #136
    gormdubhgorm
    Registered Users Posts: 18,218 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    I don't really understand this thread at all 'level 5 essentially failed' compared to what? What has it failed compared to?

    The way I see it level 5 has reduced covid levels to enable a relaxation for the christmas period - ie starting at a lower base.

    If you had another covid19 pandemic to compare a previous similar measure to level 5 which has done better as a contrast, I would understand.

    It just sounds like the OP does not see the point of level 5 at all?

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



  • #137
    Tazz T
    Registered Users Posts: 3,200 ✭✭✭Tazz T


    [HTML][/HTML]
    landofthetree wrote: »
    Ireland’s R number now stands at between 1.1 and 1.3, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly tells the Dáil.

    We will easily be at over 1000 cases by the 1st Jan.

    You really want this to happen, don't you? Unfortunately just parroting the same statement over and over again here won't make it true. Is this Donald Trump's boards account?


  • #138
    JazzyJ
    Registered Users Posts: 683 ✭✭✭JazzyJ


    Tazz T wrote: »
    [HTML][/HTML]

    You really want this to happen, don't you? Unfortunately just parroting the same statement over and over again here won't make it true. Is this Donald Trump's boards account?

    The following post shows the current positivity rate against the rate in the 2nd wave in October:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115639208&postcount=4044

    We went from 432 cases to 1269 cases in the two weeks from 6th to the 20th.

    You really don't think that won't happen again with the recent trend in positivity rate and cases creeping upwards, combined with the increased mobility and contacts over Christmas?

    I'd say there's not a hope we'll be below 1000 come January.

    What do you think will prevent history repeating itself and will be different this time?


  • #139
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    December 2020 Only - no impact from restrictions?

    536479.JPG


  • #140
    Tazz T
    Registered Users Posts: 3,200 ✭✭✭Tazz T


    JazzyJ wrote: »
    The following post shows the current positivity rate against the rate in the 2nd wave in October:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115639208&postcount=4044

    We went from 432 cases to 1269 cases in the two weeks from 6th to the 20th.

    You really don't think that won't happen again with the recent trend in positivity rate and cases creeping upwards, combined with the increased mobility and contacts over Christmas?

    I'd say there's not a hope we'll be below 1000 come January.

    What do you think will prevent history repeating itself and will be different this time?

    The schools will be out. That'll kick in January.


  • #141
    JazzyJ
    Registered Users Posts: 683 ✭✭✭JazzyJ


    Tazz T wrote: »
    The schools will be out. That'll kick in January.

    All indications given by the government so far have been that schools are not driving transmission. So they would need be royally wrong on that. And I'm not doubting that they could be.

    As you say though any impact from the schools being off will only be seen from very late December or early January, so its more likely that we will be seeing 1000 cases per day by year end.


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  • #142
    Accidentally
    Registered Users Posts: 255 ✭✭Accidentally


    The government can announce level 10 for January if they want. Without real enforcement and consequences, they are wasting everyone's time.

    Secondary students wear masks within the school buildings because it's enforced. Outside the school mask wearing is easily below 50% and groups of 10+ can be seen outside every school every day.

    There are no controls on NI citizens, so they can pretty much do whatever they like.

    Ports and airports are still operating, and controls are a joke, so if you ignore the rules, you can do whatever you want.

    As long as we have the above, more and more people will become disillusioned, and gradually slip back to normal life.


  • #143
    Howard Beale
    Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭Howard Beale


    Deleted User wrote: »
    The goal of the level 5 lockdown was to reduce the cases to about 50 per day so we could reopen.
    Unfortunately yesterday we had 300 cases and are nowhere close to 50 a day.

    Now of course it did help to an extent. Cases have reduced from about 1000+ to 250 - 300 ish. But we have to consider the social and economic impact on society as well.

    Based on what we’ve seen, if we return to level 5 in January, what evidence is there to suggest it will even work?

    If we do rise to 1000+ cases a day in Jan, how many months of level 5 would be needed to get back towards 0, which seems to be our goal. Would it even be sustainable?

    Do you think cases will remain lower with more social outlets open and more controlled environments?

    If months of level 5 is the only solution until everybody is vaccinated, I think we are f*cked.
    I predict there will be huge backlash against lockdowns next year.

    Thoughts?


    It was a total abject failure but

    Prepare to be labelled a tin foil hat loon. For some reason everyone here LOVES restrictions and effectively want to be locked up forever. Have yet to see a sinlge person on this site even question the government or even lockdown measures.


  • #144
    Tazz T
    Registered Users Posts: 3,200 ✭✭✭Tazz T


    JazzyJ wrote: »
    All indications given by the government so far have been that schools are not driving transmission. So they would need be royally wrong on that. And I'm not doubting that they could be.

    As you say though any impact from the schools being off will only be seen from very late December or early January, so its more likely that we will be seeing 1000 cases per day by year end.

    We have no real stats on schools. UK has. Secondary schools are the number one driver of infections.

    Basically all of Killorglin town is now locked down over Xmas due to the school outbreak there. Just 17 of those cases will make the school statistic even though the school is responsible for them all.


  • #145
    JazzyJ
    Registered Users Posts: 683 ✭✭✭JazzyJ


    Howard Beale wrote: »
    It was a total abject failure but

    Prepare to be labelled a tin foil hat loon. For some reason everyone here LOVES restrictions and effectively want to be locked up forever. Have yet to see a sinlge person on this site even question the government or even lockdown measures.

    No one likes the restrictions - but many see them as a necessity to prevent significant numbers of deaths. You can question the government and lockdown measures all you want, but you won't be taken seriously until you present a reasonable alternative other than "it's failed".


  • #146
    Howard Beale
    Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭Howard Beale


    JazzyJ wrote: »
    No one likes the restrictions - but many see them as a necessity to prevent significant numbers of deaths. You can question the government and lockdown measures all you want, but you won't be taken seriously until you present a reasonable alternative other than "it's failed".

    The reasonable alternative is no lockdown.

    Ever hear of Sweden or South Korea? How about Belarus?


  • #147
    JazzyJ
    Registered Users Posts: 683 ✭✭✭JazzyJ


    Tazz T wrote: »
    We have no real stats on schools. UK has. Secondary schools are the number one driver of infections.

    Basically all of Killorglin town is now locked down over Xmas due to the school outbreak there. Just 17 of those cases will make the school statistic even though the school is responsible for them all.

    Don't get me wrong - I'm skeptical of the governments assertion that there's minimal transmission from schools - especially if its occurring significantly in other countries.

    But schools finishing up for the holidays won't impact the numbers until very late December/early January.


  • #148
    JazzyJ
    Registered Users Posts: 683 ✭✭✭JazzyJ


    Howard Beale wrote: »
    The reasonable alternative is no lockdown.

    Ever hear of Sweden or South Korea? How about Belarus?

    This Sweden??? Indeed...
    Sweden's king says 'we have failed' over Covid-19, as deaths mount
    "We have had a large number of deaths and that is terrible," the king said.
    Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said he agreed with the king's remarks.

    "Of course the fact that so many have died can't be considered as anything other than a failure," Mr Lofven told reporters.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/sweden-s-king-says-we-have-failed-over-covid-19-n1251670
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55347021


  • #149
    Sam Quentin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,223 ✭✭✭Sam Quentin


    I've noticed a stark change/different attitude from the public in the last week or so..fear is starting to grip the nation, conspiracy theories are being outed left,right and centre. Joe public is starting to see this COVID-19 Pandemic for what it is. And it's not good NOT good at all. For people to think we should have normality for Christmas,just sounds like desperation.. it's very sad but it's true::if we don't start taking this thing more seriously than we are, then we will be living in a very very scary world for the foreseeable future!?
    I had reason to use post offices just North of the border during the last number of months early on in the Pandemic and not in 2 months now.. I was shocked at the number of people not wearing masks in Northern Ireland,and I mean sometimes I literally be the only person with a mask in quite a busy shop/post office. Look how they are suffering now.


  • #150
    JazzyJ
    Registered Users Posts: 683 ✭✭✭JazzyJ


    Howard Beale wrote: »
    The reasonable alternative is no lockdown.

    Ever hear of Sweden or South Korea? How about Belarus?

    Sounds like Belarus are cracking down as well - borders being closed, mandatory quarantine, mandatory masks.

    https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus--close-land-borders-covid--19-opposition-activists-movement-limited/30993827.html


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  • #151
    gral6
    Registered Users Posts: 657 ✭✭✭gral6


    JazzyJ wrote: »
    Sounds like Belarus are cracking down as well - borders being closed, mandatory quarantine, mandatory masks.

    https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus--close-land-borders-covid--19-opposition-activists-movement-limited/30993827.html

    Closing border in Belarus has nothing to do with Covid.


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