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Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    So quiet on here


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,623 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    So quiet on here

    Maybe because it's still Autumn? :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    Winter doesn't start until Dec 1. Meanwhile the mild wet dull horror show continues for another 10 days at least with the odd drier interlude. As we head into December not much changes it appears. There's no big permanent cold pool to tap into, or give hope for a more seasonal feel. We don't even get cold northwesterlies anymore. Pessimistic vibes in the ascendancy for those who like a bit of cold snowy weather or at least a glimpse of it. We shall see.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,651 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    So quiet on here

    Everyone’s seen the long term winter forecast. It’s bleak reading hard to get motivated to post in here when we are looking at another mild, wet, windy winter. It was so mild out at 10pm last night.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,571 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    New Zealand just had its warmest winter on record, this kind of thing seems to be trending worldwide.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Maybe because it's still Autumn? :)

    :) I see what you did there


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    Loughc wrote: »
    Everyone’s seen the long term winter forecast. It’s bleak reading hard to get motivated to post in here when we are looking at another mild, wet, windy winter. It was so mild out at 10pm last night.

    Yeah I get that but I never buy into long rang winter forecasts no matter who or how professional the person is. It only takes a few tweaks over a few weeks for different outcomes.
    But I agree as it stands at the moment it’s not looking great but in 2-3 weeks time we could be looking at a different outcome further down the line or not.
    Just don’t believe it’s over before it’s begun.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,651 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Yeah I get that but I never buy into long rang winter forecasts no matter who or how professional the person is.

    I can't remember one winter forecast in the past 10 years that was wrong.

    Don't do it to yourself man... it's the hope that kills ya.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,836 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Maybe just maybe tentative signs at month end of some wintry showers.
    After all it is Winter.:p


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,679 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    still looks very zonal right up the end of FI, slightly cooler than average at times between the mild interludes but those showers would mostly be cold rain and maybe some sleet with snow on the mountain tops.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    While I'm more or less resigned to not hoping for a wintry December, 2017 is still consistently showing up as the strongest sea surface temperature analog for this year. Between this and ongoing rumours of a January SSW in the works, I'm still hopeful for some February fireworks.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 366 ✭✭daniel_t1409


    :) I see what you did there
    :confused: I don't get it :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Good discussion here on possible pattern scenarios for this coming Winter over 'Urope'.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 689 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Loughc wrote: »
    I can't remember one winter forecast in the past 10 years that was wrong.

    Don't do it to yourself man... it's the hope that kills ya.

    Its funny you should say that as i cant remember an accurate one


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Sure when they give the same winter forecast every year for the last 10 years they eventually get it right anyway...


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,651 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    bazlers wrote: »
    Its funny you should say that as i cant remember an accurate one

    M.T.'s have been on the money every year. I'm talking about proper weather enthusiasts not John the postman or Met Eireann or the Sun newspaper.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,553 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    ps2png-gorax-blue-008-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-tSNY_2.png.24348f4be4398bf3da2a6a017b787367.png

    A bit different to this time last year! Could we be on the cusp of something decent?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    ps2png-gorax-blue-008-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-tSNY_2.png.24348f4be4398bf3da2a6a017b787367.png

    A bit different to this time last year! Could we be on the cusp of something decent?
    What is this a chart of?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,086 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    Intriguing
    ECM1-240.GIF?24-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 689 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Loughc wrote: »
    M.T.'s have been on the money every year. I'm talking about proper weather enthusiasts not John the postman or Met Eireann or the Sun newspaper.

    No not even the great MT gets it right all the time im afraid.
    As good if not better than anything ive seen though.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,108 ✭✭✭highdef


    Intriguing
    ECM1-240.GIF?24-0

    Looks like air sourced from a mild continental Europe to me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,355 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    A frosty one tomorrow night. I always like to see the frost coming. It gives hope.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,651 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    A frosty one tomorrow night. I always like to see the frost coming. It gives hope.

    It’s the hope that kills you.

    Abandon all hope ye that enter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    The GFS 18z brings in -6c uppers from the east on December 2nd, I'm not sure if that's good enough at this time of year due to the modification of the air mass by the warm sea but I imagine it's enough to bring wintry showers. Still out in FI of course.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    The pub run is now showing the development of a Scandi high beginning within the reliable timeframe. Certainly some more interesting charts than we've had over the last few winters since The Beast...


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,096 ✭✭✭pad199207


    The pub run is now showing the development of a Scandi high beginning within the reliable timeframe. Certainly some more interesting charts than we've had over the last few winters since The Beast...

    It’s definitely improving alright as the runs go, but the gate to the garden path is still wide open at this point.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,679 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    interesting charts alright but still some wide swings from one run to another such as this mornings and this evenings ECM being quite different, however it does appear the Atlantic may settle down for a while and we can look forward to some frosty nights in the short term.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 837 ✭✭✭John O.Groats


    Gonzo wrote: »
    interesting charts alright but still some wide swings from one run to another such as this mornings and this evenings ECM being quite different, however it does appear the Atlantic may settle down for a while and we can look forward to some frosty nights in the short term.

    So no prospect of anything like a repeat of the Nov/Dec 2010 big freeze a decade on from that unforgettable period of weather then?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Gonzo wrote: »
    interesting charts alright but still some wide swings from one run to another such as this mornings and this evenings ECM being quite different, however it does appear the Atlantic may settle down for a while and we can look forward to some frosty nights in the short term.

    Ecm even with the big swings between runs is trending Colder in the runs.
    It just can't decide where it wants the cold though


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    So no prospect of anything like a repeat of the Nov/Dec 2010 big freeze a decade on from that unforgettable period of weather then?

    No, unlikely. However, at least a chance of some more seasonal, drier, crisp weather for a while. After that, past ten days time, you can cherry pick the charts for what you want. Unreliable.


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