2000 Guineas 2019

The Tetrarch · 09-03-2019 2:07pm #1

Too Darn Hot is favourite, best price 11/8.

In the Racing Post on 17th January
"Appleby is eyeing further Classic success in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas in May with Group 1 winners Quorto and Line Of Duty."
I know Line Of Duty is wintering in Dubai. I assume Too Darn Hot is wintering in Newmarket.
On 6th March on Betfair I bet €32.01 at 91.91 Line Of Duty (bookies best price 20/1).

Line Of Duty (RPR 114) ran five times, 2nd x 2 (7f), then 1st x 3 (8f, 9f, 8f) (raced against 37 horses).
His last win was the Breeders Cup Turf, Grade 1.
He raced as a 2yo in the UK, France, USA.
His dam, Jacqueline Quest, only won once, and "won" the 1000 Guineas by a nose but was placed second " hung right throughout final furlong, just held on, finished 1st, disqualified and placed 2nd".
Jacqueline Quest raced 1 x 6f, 8 x 7f, 6 x 8f.

Too Darn Hot (RPR 126) is unbeaten in four races (raced against 20 horses).
His first race was 8f, then 3 x 7f.
His last win was the Dewhurst Stakes, Group 1.
All his 2yo races were in the UK.
His dam, Dar Re Mi, won six times 2 x 10f, 4 x 12f. Dar RE MI raced 1 x 7f, 5 x 10f, 14 x 12f.

Positives for Line Of Duty:
His dam was a top miler.
He is an experienced traveller.
He has won more money.
He has raced more times (5 v 4) and against more horses (37 v 20).
He has won over 8f at the top level.

Negatives Line Of Duty:
He is a very small / compact horse (no idea if he has grown over the winter).
He gets into trouble in races, blocked / pocketed.

Lines of form:
Too Darn Hot beat Anthony Van Dyck 4 lengths in the Dewhurst.
Line Of Duty beat Anthony Van Dyck 6 3/4 lengths in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.
Too Darn Hot beat Arthur Kitt 4 lengths in the Solario Stakes.
Line Of Duty beat Arthur Kitt 2 1/2 lengths in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.
Cardini was beaten 4 1/4 lengths by Arthur Kitt in June and the exact same distance by Too Darn Hot in September.

At the prices 11/8 and 90/1 I think the value is Line Of Duty.

RivetingRoger · 09-03-2019 2:41pm

This is no time of year to be talking about Flat Rats!!!

The White Wolf · 09-03-2019 2:48pm

Love this division as so fascinating to see which kick on from their early promise and who upsets the applecart.

I'll be following Emaraaty Ana in the lead up to the race however Too Darn Hot obviously looks to be a serious animal. If I could play at those odds I would

Gringo180 · 09-03-2019 3:09pm

The ****ing Guineas the week b4 Cheltenham hahaha

The White Wolf · 09-03-2019 3:11pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

The ****ing Guineas the week b4 Cheltenham hahaha

What's your point? It's a forum with plenty of threads especially for Cheltenham. Stick to them if you don't fancy the subject.

tryfix · 09-03-2019 5:38pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Too Darn Hot is favourite, best price 11/8.

In the Racing Post on 17th January
"Appleby is eyeing further Classic success in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas in May with Group 1 winners Quorto and Line Of Duty."
I know Line Of Duty is wintering in Dubai. I assume Too Darn Hot is wintering in Newmarket.
On 6th March on Betfair I bet €32.01 at 91.91 Line Of Duty (bookies best price 20/1).

Line Of Duty (RPR 114) ran five times, 2nd x 2 (7f), then 1st x 3 (8f, 9f, 8f) (raced against 37 horses).
His last win was the Breeders Cup Turf, Grade 1.
He raced as a 2yo in the UK, France, USA.
His dam, Jacqueline Quest, only won once, and "won" the 1000 Guineas by a nose but was placed second " hung right throughout final furlong, just held on, finished 1st, disqualified and placed 2nd".
Jacqueline Quest raced 1 x 6f, 8 x 7f, 6 x 8f.

Too Darn Hot (RPR 126) is unbeaten in four races (raced against 20 horses).
His first race was 8f, then 3 x 7f.
His last win was the Dewhurst Stakes, Group 1.
All his 2yo races were in the UK.
His dam, Dar Re Mi, won six times 2 x 10f, 4 x 12f. Dar RE MI raced 1 x 7f, 5 x 10f, 14 x 12f.

Positives for Line Of Duty:
His dam was a top miler.
He is an experienced traveller.
He has won more money.
He has raced more times (5 v 4) and against more horses (37 v 20).
He has won over 8f at the top level.

Negatives Line Of Duty:
He is a very small / compact horse (no idea if he has grown over the winter).
He gets into trouble in races, blocked / pocketed.

Lines of form:
Too Darn Hot beat Anthony Van Dyck 4 lengths in the Dewhurst.
Line Of Duty beat Anthony Van Dyck 6 3/4 lengths in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.
Too Darn Hot beat Arthur Kitt 4 lengths in the Solario Stakes.
Line Of Duty beat Arthur Kitt 2 1/2 lengths in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.
Cardini was beaten 4 1/4 lengths by Arthur Kitt in June and the exact same distance by Too Darn Hot in September.

At the prices 11/8 and 90/1 I think the value is Line Of Duty.

90/1 about Line Of Duty in any race is savage value.

I wouldn't be too sure that Line Of Duty will end up at Newmarket. He's already been on his travels to both France and the USA. At this stage the French Guineas would seem to be a more likely target. What's the stable view on his targets? He looks to be a proper Derby horse to my eyes.

Too Darn Hot is a very special horse with more than enough about him to suggest the Guineas is well within his reach.

There are however a few negatives to be overcome before he's crowned 2,000 Guineas winner.

• John Gosden has never won the 1,000 ( EDIT he actually did win the 1,000 19 years ago ) or 2,000 Guineas.

• It used to be a factor that despite being well fancied the Dubawis at that stage of the year weren't ready to win the Guineas. Night Of Thunder knocked that on the head.

• Looking at Too Darn Hot and how his trainer progresses his horses, it seems to me that Too Darn Hot will be building muscle through the year rather than being nearly fully primed in May.

• Despite what John Gosden says about his trip, Too Darn Hot has a Derby pedigree and it would be logical for Gosden to use the Guineas as a Prep race for the Derby and rest of the season rather than having him at peak in the Guineas.

WicklowBrave · 09-03-2019 6:02pm

I think TDH is all over a Guineas horse. I wouldn't be sure he'd even stay 12f, despite what his pedigree would suggest. That family is fragile aswell I'm not sure he'll be the most robust going forward. I think Quorto is a serious horse. He is no 8/1 poke.

The Tetrarch · 09-03-2019 6:49pm

Year Winner Favourite Odds
1990 Tirol X Machiavellian 6/4
1991 Mystiko X Marju 6/4
1992 Rodrigo de Triano X Alnasr Alwasheek 5/2
1993 Zafonic Zafonic 5/6
1994 Mister Baileys X King's Theatre 9/2
1995 Pennekamp X Celtic Swing 4/5
1996 Mark of Esteem X Alhaarth 2/1
1997 Entrepreneur X Revoque 100/30
1998 King of Kings X Xaar 10/11
1999 Island Sands X Orpen 7/2
2000 King's Best X Giant's Causeway 7/2
2001 Golan X Tobougg 4/1
2002 Rock of Gibraltar X Hawk Wing 6/4
2003 Refuse to Bend X Hold That Tiger 4/1
2004 Haafhd X One Cool Cat 15/8
2005 Footstepsinthesand X Dubawi 11/8
2006 George Washington George Washington 6/4
2007 Cockney Rebel X Adagio 4/1
2008 Henrythenavigator X New Approach 11/8
2009 Sea the Stars X Delegator 3/1
2010 Makfi X St Nicholas Abbey 1/1
2011 Frankel Frankel 1/2
2012 Camelot Camelot 15/8
2013 Dawn Approach Dawn Approach 11/8
2014 Night of Thunder X Kingman 6/4
2015 Gleneagles Gleneagles 4/1
2016 Galileo Gold X Air Force Blue 4/5
2017 Churchill Churchill 6/4
2018 Saxon Warrior X Masar 5/2

Recently favourites have done alright, and that recency might mislead (5 favourites winning in the last 8 years).
It has been a race for upsets imo, 7 winning favourites in the last 29 years, with a run of only 2 in 21 years, 1990 to 2010.

What worries me about Too Darn Hot is few races against small fields.

IAMAMORON · 09-03-2019 7:01pm

From a betting perspective there is always some nice value in the race. If you fancy an improver that has trained on there will be loads of value available against Too Darn Hot. Makfi was a Dubawi colt as well as Night of Thunder. 6/4 is always worth taking on. But he was definitely the champion 2 year old.

I don't think Dubawi's are Derby types. max distance 10 furlongs for me. There is scope to stay on the dam side for sure.

You can be guaranteed that Coolmore will have one ready for the race, if not more than one.

yaboya1 · 09-03-2019 8:11pm

tryfix wrote: »

• John Gosden has never won the 1,000 or 2,000 Guineas.

Not true.

IAMAMORON · 09-03-2019 8:20pm

yaboya1 wrote: »

Not true.

Kingman won on the Curragh. Lahan won the 1000 at Newmarket, along time ago old-timer:). I am presuming Tryfix meant Newmarket.

yaboya1 · 09-03-2019 8:29pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Kingman won on the Curragh. Lahan won the 1000 at Newmarket, along time ago old-timer:). I am presuming Tryfix meant Newmarket.

Yes, Lahan won the 1000 at Newmarket.

tryfix · 09-03-2019 11:31pm

yaboya1 wrote: »

Not true.

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Kingman won on the Curragh. Lahan won the 1000 at Newmarket, along time ago old-timer:). I am presuming Tryfix meant Newmarket.

Oops I forgot about Lahan, not that it'd be too easy to remember her. :pac:

Yeah I meant Newmarket. Gosden usually has a filly in the running for the 1,000 but apart from Lahan 19 years ago they invariably come up short.

Francie Barrett · 10-03-2019 12:29am

Gringo180 wrote: »

The ****ing Guineas the week b4 Cheltenham hahaha

Personally, I am not laughing. 80% of my Cheltenham bets are already done. My Grand National bet is done. My bets for the Meydan carnival are likely all done already. When everyone was going mad about Cheltenham, I have already moved on. I am currently considering the Derby (of which the the final 90 entries were declared earlier this week), the Guineas, and the Kentucky Derby.

I was actually going to create a Derby thread earlier this week, but this was exactly the sort of reaction that made me think "oh **** it".

longshotvalue · 10-03-2019 12:33am

Talking about Flat Racing a week before Cheltenham :eek:

NaiveMelodies · 10-03-2019 1:11am

Is there any way of deleting posts that are have nothing to do with the thread? :pac::pac::pac:

Nice bit of value on LOD there Tertrach but surely a doubtful runner for the English guineas?

The Tetrarch · 10-03-2019 1:52pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Is there any way of deleting posts that are have nothing to do with the thread? :pac::pac::pac:
Nice bit of value on LOD there Tertrach but surely a doubtful runner for the English guineas?

His trainer said in mid-January he was being trained for the Guineas, but that might be just to give a journalist a quote.
Line Of Duty and Too Darn Hot on pedigree look like both would be suited to more than 8f. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a surprise winner again.
At this time of the year every horse is being trained for the Guineas, Derby, Triple Crown, King George, Prix de l'Arc and the Grand National.

tryfix · 11-03-2019 6:18pm

Best Odds

Too Darn Hot. 6/4
Quorto. 8/1
Ten Sovereigns. 11/1
Calyx. 11/1
Persian King. 14/1
Advertise. 16/1
Magna Grecia. 16/1
Anthony Van Dyck. 20/1
Madhmoon. 20/1
Line Of Duty. 20/1
Jash. 20/1
Art Du Val. 25/1
Bold Approach 25/1
Royal Meeting 25/1
Anador 33/1
Desert Island. 33/1
Turgenev. 33/1
Sangarius. 33/1
Western Frontier. 33/1
Kick On. 33/1
Phoenix Of Spain. 33/1

My fancy against the favourite would be Madhmoon, he has looked awesome so far. That is if he heads there. I'd imagine that his trainer would be taking the Awtaad route of the Irish 2,000 Guineas.

I do like Ten Sovereigns but there doesn't seem to be much stable confidence behind a Guineas run for him. With the way O'Brien's horses were sick last summer it's impossible to know what the true state of play is amongst the O'Brien 3yos this year.

Gringo180 · 11-03-2019 6:24pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Personally, I am not laughing. 80% of my Cheltenham bets are already done. My Grand National bet is done. My bets for the Meydan carnival are likely all done already. When everyone was going mad about Cheltenham, I have already moved on. I am currently considering the Derby (of which the the final 90 entries were declared earlier this week), the Guineas, and the Kentucky Derby.

I was actually going to create a Derby thread earlier this week, but this was exactly the sort of reaction that made me think "oh **** it".

Jaysus lads just found it funny to see a Guineas thread pop up few days before Cheltenham, thicker skin needed by some.

elderberry · 12-03-2019 12:37am

Think I saw recent headlines/quotes about both Quorto & Persian King going for Newmarket. Sheikh Mo would hardly line up a third one for it especially if that third one is a Galileo and there's a couple Dubawi's at top of market! At 90/1 it's probably worth a few quid that this could be all turned on its head.

I'd really like Madhmoon if I knew he was going to have a prep run. First run of season combined with first trip abroad would be very big ask IMO, no matter how talented a colt

WicklowBrave · 13-03-2019 10:52am

Quorto misses the race

The Tetrarch · 13-03-2019 11:06am

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Quorto misses the race

I can't find that news with a Google search?

WicklowBrave · 13-03-2019 11:08am

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I can't find that news with a Google search?

Racing Post twitter

The Tetrarch · 13-03-2019 11:49am

Now on the Racing Post website posted at 10:44am
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/leading-2-000-guineas-hope-quorto-injured-and-out-of-newmarket-classic/370692

A bet of €100 at 21s Line Of Duty for the 2000 Guineas on Betfair a few minutes ago.
Earlier I put on €18 at 75s. Best available now is 17s.

tryfix · 14-03-2019 4:24am

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Now on the Racing Post website posted at 10:44am
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/leading-2-000-guineas-hope-quorto-injured-and-out-of-newmarket-classic/370692

A bet of €100 at 21s Line Of Duty for the 2000 Guineas on Betfair a few minutes ago.
Earlier I put on €18 at 75s. Best available now is 17s.

With Quorto now out of the way your chances of getting a run for your money are beginning to look seriously good.

The Tetrarch · 14-03-2019 11:15am

tryfix wrote: »

With Quorto now out of the way your chances of getting a run for your money are beginning to look seriously good.

Btw that bet of 100 at 21s mentioned above was not me, although that shrewdie must be following my bets.

In my dream world Line Of Duty smashed Quorto in a gallop and they made an excuse to pull the horse. (didn't happen).

tryfix · 23-03-2019 5:05pm

Aidan O'Brien is supposedly targeting the 2,000 Guineas for Ten Sovereigns and Magna Grecia is also being readied for a run in it.

According to his trainer it looks like Persian King will be staying in France.

As A O'Bs Guineas horse Ten Sovereigns ( who's a best priced 10/1 shot now ) will surely drop in price as the day of the race approaches. Possibly spectacularly so if anything were to rule out current hot favourite Too Darn Hot.

IAMAMORON · 23-03-2019 7:12pm

See link for Aidan O'Brien stable tour. Some interesting comments on the 3 year olds.

https://www.attheraces.com/stable-tours/aidan-o'brien

tryfix · 07-04-2019 4:56am

That was a satisfactory reintroduction for Madhmoon in the 2,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown. He quickened up well under a penalty and was then passed by a flying Never No More over what looks like an inadequate 7f trip. Not exactly 2,000 Guineas winning form but it was only a trial. I'd still be happy enough to back him in either the Irish or English 2,000 Guineas, although he looks like he'd be best at 10f at this stage.

The Tetrarch · 07-04-2019 8:56am

I see in The Irish Field that Line Of Duty was supplement for the English Derby.
That might mean my bet on him in the 2000 Guineas is history.

tryfix · 07-04-2019 11:34am

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I see in The Irish Field that Line Of Duty was supplement for the English Derby.
That might mean my bet on him in the 2000 Guineas is history.

Not necessarily, the Guineas and onto the Derby is a normal route for a horse like LOD. They did the same with Masar last year who started favourite for the Guineas. With any luck LOD will start off the season with a run in the Craven in less than 2 weeks time.

2000 Guineas 2019

Comments