Hurricane Michael

[Deleted User] · 10-10-2018 1:33pm

12Z SHIPS forecast has upgraded the intensity.

M.T. Cranium · 10-10-2018 1:45pm

Radar for the landfall zone, still looks like a landfall close to Panama City FL, would be a lot less damage in total if that turns out to be 10 miles southeast than anywhere northwest of there (estimated population from 10 miles southeast of Panama City to Appalachicola being 20,000; Panama City several times that).

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=EVX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Landfall expected to be around 1800h (UTC).

Have been reading mixed reviews of evacuation on U.S. social media and weather forum, however a lot of the weaker results appear to be on the storm's good side hopefully (where storm surge will be minimal and wind damage moderate at worst).

I have read predictions that even cat-1 winds inland will do lots of damage to the electric power grid with Tallahassee mentioned as a location where a lot of untested trees are going to take down overhead wires in the city. If Michael hits land at cat-4 it will take 100 miles of inland penetration to bring winds down below cat-1 threshhold.

pad199207 · 10-10-2018 2:44pm

926.8mb now with latest recon. My god.

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 2:44pm

Even the Weather Channel have evacuated:
https://twitter.com/mikebettes/status/1050001785635655685

(although yes, that area they were in was particularly isolated)

greedygoblin · 10-10-2018 2:52pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Even the Weather Channel have evacuated:
(although yes, that area they were in was particularly isolated)

Left it too late to leave:
https://twitter.com/mikebettes/status/1050019900562034689

star gazer · 10-10-2018 3:17pm

000
WTNT64 KNHC 101355
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
900 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...9 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MICHAEL APPROACHES...

A private weather station in Bald Point, Florida, recently reported
a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) and wind gust of 59 mph (95
km/h). The Apalachicola airport recently reported a wind gust of 58
mph (93 km/h). A Weatherflow station in St. Andrew Bay recently
reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust of 48 mph
(77 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 4 feet of inundation above
ground level.

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...29.3N 86.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NHC

https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge

hatrickpatrick · 10-10-2018 3:28pm

Aircraft recon just reported a surface pressure of 925.7mb. Intensification continuing unabated.

Hard to believe there are still people on the coast taking photos etc :eek:

pad199207 · 10-10-2018 3:29pm

This is an impressive graphic

Gaoth Laidir · 10-10-2018 3:33pm

The SFMR winds seem to be down a tad in the last hour, hovering around 108-115 kts in the NE eyewall during two separate missions. Small consolation if you're in the path, though the area of these winds is remarkably narrow, probably only 5 miles wide.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2018 4:13pm

So many reporters standing in the rain.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2018 4:41pm

Max sustained winds have just increased to 150 mph according to latest recon. Pressure 923 mb.

That's on the edge of Cat 5 now.

sryanbruen · 10-10-2018 4:47pm

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1050049106662440962

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 4:52pm

Not good company to be in ^

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2018 4:55pm

Weather Channel stream here.

http://www.livenewson.com/american/the-weather-channel.html

star gazer · 10-10-2018 4:57pm

https://twitter.com/NWS/status/1050051765914230784
"Landfall of #HurricaneMichael is imminent. THIS IS A WORST CASE SCENARIO for the Florida Panhandle!! Listen to your local emergency officials. Stay Inside & Survive!" --NWS Director Dr. Louis Uccellini "

dfx- · 10-10-2018 5:05pm

but it does look to be a landfall in a relatively sparsely populated part of the coast

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2018 5:13pm

Reporter on CNN

"Isn't the Palm Tree a fascinating piece of vegetation?"

It is indeed.

Gaoth Laidir · 10-10-2018 5:17pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Max sustained winds have just increased to 150 mph according to latest recon. Pressure 923 mb.

That's on the edge of Cat 5 now.

Where are you seeing that 150 mph?

Itssoeasy · 10-10-2018 5:21pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Where are you seeing that 150 mph?

The NHC have apparently gone with the 150mph winds.

Edit: from the weather channel which are saying it also.

RobertKK · 10-10-2018 5:21pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Where are you seeing that 150 mph?

It is on CNN:
Wind speed: 150mph, it went up from 145mph.

OneEightSeven · 10-10-2018 5:24pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Where are you seeing that 150 mph?

Weather Underground have it, too.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2018 5:26pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Where are you seeing that 150 mph?

NHC

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1050046648158744576

[Deleted User] · 10-10-2018 5:27pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Where are you seeing that 150 mph?

Approx 115-120 kt SFMR wind speeds from the most recent fly through.

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 5:30pm

It's hilarious that the Weather Channel feel the need to create dramatic trailers for the hurricane, just show us the real life drama.

Gaoth Laidir · 10-10-2018 5:35pm

17-pdr wrote: »

Approx 115-120 kt SFMR wind speeds from the most recent fly through.

Yes, that's what I was seeing too, but it's not 150 mph. It's even slightly lower than earlier.

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 5:47pm

CNN - do we really need footage of Trump not giving a **** about any of this?

star gazer · 10-10-2018 5:49pm

dfx- wrote: »

but it does look to be a landfall in a relatively sparsely populated part of the coast

True, but for the area that it's forecast to impact most, it's looking catastrophic.

Itssoeasy · 10-10-2018 5:50pm

MJohnston wrote: »

CNN - do we really need footage of Trump not giving a **** about any of this?

I think it's trump not knowing a **** about any of this.

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 5:51pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I think it's trump not knowing a **** about any of this.

It's both things!

Gaoth Laidir · 10-10-2018 5:54pm

Trump:

"North and South Carolina are gonna get an awful lodda waddur"

Hurricane Michael

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