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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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    #182
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    the next 2 weeks look Atlantic dominated with plenty of cool and unsettled conditions. There will be plenty of showers or longer outbreaks of rain possibly up to the 10th of July. By then i'm expecting things to start settling down somewhat with a bit of luck.

    Both the JMA and Beijing Climate Centre are hinting at high pressure building from the Azores through the middle part of July which may possibly last into early August.

    Fingers crossed that the Azores does a proper job next time around with a more prolonged period of dry and warm conditions and keeping low pressures well clear of Ireland for a few weeks.

    These hints of high pressure are starting to appear at the very extended range of FI, hopefully we will see this build momentum over the next 2 weeks and that the good weather does not keep getting pushed back.

    GFSOPEU06_384_1.png

    ECM wants to bring high pressure in a week earlier, not sure it's well supported at this stage, but it's good to see both the ECM and GFS at least hinting towards things settling down in July.

    ECMOPEU00_240_1.png


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    #183
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    an update to how the next two weeks will progress. Those looking for things to settle down and warm up over the next 2 weeks will be disappointed. The next 10 to 14 days are looking rather cool with temperatures generally between 1 to 3 degrees below average. The Azores will remain just to out south most of the time but spoiler lows should ensure that the Azores never really makes it here, instead delivering a possibly very warm or hot few weeks to France and central parts of Europe. We have also lost the Scandinavian high so the Atlantic looks set to dominate much of northern Europe over the next 2 weeks with lows rattling through from the west with relative ease. Rainfall looks average and temperatures generally in the 12 to 17C range with high teens possible on days where the ridge tries to influence our weather briefly.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2020-07-01&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Signs of things settling down and warming continues to get push back, now we are looking at possibly the second half of July or the beginning of August for any serious improvement in our weather. There is every possibility that the current rather cool and unsettled pattern may continue through the month of July and into August in what is starting to look like a fairly cool and mixed summer.


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    #184
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The long range ECM forecast is also looking rather cool and generally unsettled. These forecast charts show temperature and rainfall anomalies over the next 6 weeks. These should only be used as a guide as they are very long range and anything beyond the second week is so extended that it is not in any way a reliable forecast.

    These charts are regularly talked about on gavsweather so i'll link the charts here for everyone to take a look at. If the charts are to be believed we are in for a cool couple of weeks with rainfall tapering off as we head into the second half of July. The north-west of Ireland looks set to see the most rainfall and the coolest temperature anomalies over the next few weeks.

    The charts suggest that perhaps the last 2 weeks of July offer the best chance of some dryer weather with average temperatures rather than cooler than average. The very extended range charts cover the first 2 weeks of August and if they are to be believed the opening 10 days of August may start to trend cooler and wetter again.

    Once again anything beyond the next 1 to 2 weeks is pure fantasy but looking at this 6 weeks timeline from the ECM we won't be seeing a prolonged nationwide spell of warm or settled conditions any time soon.

    Link to the charts: https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/


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    #185
    Seven Septs
    Closed Accounts Posts: 145 ✭✭Seven Septs


    Just to reply to Gonzo. There's still some hope re. the Azores high nudging towards us. I know it's the 6Z from the GFS (Generally feckin sh*te) but it could be close enough to warming up a little. maybe for southern parts at least.

    gfs-0-138.png?6


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    #186
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Seven Septs wrote: »
    Just to reply to Gonzo. There's still some hope re. the Azores high nudging towards us. I know it's the 6Z from the GFS (Generally feckin sh*te) but it could be close enough to warming up a little. maybe for southern parts at least.


    With the Azores high very close to us throughout the next few weeks we may get a day here and there with dry interludes and slightly warmer temperatures but anything settled looks like being very short lived as the flat westerly will be in charge most of the time. Definitely southern and eastern areas have the best chance of any signs of warmth or dryness over the next few weeks judging by recent models. Hopefully by this time next week we will see more signs of that azores getting going across the country as a whole.

    The CFS wants to build a very warm scene in the last 2 weeks of July with the azores ridging just to our south-east which would draw up much warmer air from the continent but all the short range models still look Atlantic driven up to the middle of the month so it remains to be seen what will happen after next week.


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    #187
    Seven Septs
    Closed Accounts Posts: 145 ✭✭Seven Septs


    Gonzo wrote: »
    With the Azores high very close to us throughout the next few weeks we may get a day here and there with dry interludes and slightly warmer temperatures but anything settled looks like being very short lived as the flat westerly will be in charge most of the time. Definitely southern and eastern areas have the best chance of any signs of warmth or dryness over the next few weeks judging by recent models. Hopefully by this time next week we will see more signs of that azores getting going across the country as a whole.

    The CFS wants to build a very warm scene in the last 2 weeks of July with the azores ridging just to our south-east which would draw up much warmer air from the continent but all the short range models still look Atlantic driven up to the middle of the month so it remains to be seen what will happen after next week.

    The 6Z GFS keeps the 1020 millibar line over the south of Ireland 6-13 July. I'm holding out a little hope still Gonzo:) I know it's only one run of an iffy model.


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    #188
    Seven Septs
    Closed Accounts Posts: 145 ✭✭Seven Septs


    UKMO 12Z hopefull too.

    UW144-21.GIF?01-17


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    #189
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I wouldnt write the whole thing off just most of it.

    There will be dry days now and again but wetter than we have been used to and the spoiler lows could make things very cold some days. Who's for 11c in July?

    I think the week of 19th to 26th will bring 2 or 3 very warm days up to 24 or 25c. So take your staycation then.


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    #190
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    In those charts posted it's clear the high can't take hold here. The south east may get a couple of quite warm and dry days here and there, but lower pressure is too close to our north west to allow the Azores high to settle over us for the next two weeks at least. Things may improve a bit after mid- july, whereby some parts of the country tap into more settled weather, but the north west could hold on to the rain and drizzle. We could well have days in July with quite a contrast in temperatures across the country.


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    #191
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users Posts: 4,343 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    If it continues like today in the north west, I'd be very happy


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    #192
    Seven Septs
    Closed Accounts Posts: 145 ✭✭Seven Septs


    nacho libre wrote: »
    In those charts posted it's clear the high can't take hold here. The south east may get a couple of quite warm and dry days here and there, but lower pressure is too close to our north west to allow the Azores high to settle over us for the next two weeks at least. Things may improve a bit after mid- july, whereby some parts of the country tap into more settled weather, but the north west could hold on to the rain and drizzle. We could well have days in July with quite a contrast in temperatures across the country.

    I never said heat wave or anything. Just drier and warmer. With less breaks in between. This week has had 11-14C days for most of the week. Next week it will be more like 17-20C and a degree or 2 higher on the best days. Some pleasant Irish Summer Weather.

    Like these 2 projections on the ECM.

    ECM1-168.GIF?01-0

    ECM1-240.GIF?01-0


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    #193
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Seven Septs wrote: »
    I never said heat wave or anything. Just drier and warmer. With less breaks in between. This week has had 11-14C days for most of the week. Next week it will be more like 17-20C and a degree or 2 higher on the best days. Some pleasant Irish Summer Weather.

    Like these 2 projections on the ECM.

    Yes. It will be a bit warmer next week, but with the jet profile the way it is, i can't see it staying dry for more than a couple of days. We'll back to cool and wet days sooner rather than later on until that changes.


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    #194
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    yep not much chance of a dry or settled spell over the next 2 weeks that lasts for more than maybe 24 to 36 hours at most. We will remain close to the Azores ridge but there will be spoiler lows every few days on that flat westerly keeping the generally unsettled theme going.


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    #195
    eon1208
    Registered Users Posts: 282 ✭✭eon1208


    Gonzo. Whats the chances of the mixed guidance leading to a settled spell of warmth from next weekend. MT's forecast hints at this scenario. Just a hint of this chance. What are the odds..


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    #196
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Very slight chance of settled spell after next week but I've been in this business too long to know it normally results in one or two good days and even those have cloud in the West.

    If you want sun May or June are your months

    July and August less so but July usually warmer than this. At this rate it will be snowing in August


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    #197
    eon1208
    Registered Users Posts: 282 ✭✭eon1208


    Thanks Pauldry. Looking for about 5 days. Last chance saloon for my hay field. Can't hold out much longer. MT hinted at a bit of an upswing. Keep the guidance coming. I have a bit of a holiday booked at this time also. Really need to juggle my dates. Such is life. Lol


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    #198
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    eon1208 wrote: »
    Gonzo. Whats the chances of the mixed guidance leading to a settled spell of warmth from next weekend. MT's forecast hints at this scenario. Just a hint of this chance. What are the odds..

    At the moment things don't look great for anything more than 1 day of fine weather at a time. We are in for a relatively cool and unsettled weekend to come, particularly Sunday not looking good.

    It will remain cool till about Wednesday then a slight lift up in the temperatures for a few days and then the possibility of another cool and unsettled period next weekend which could swing winds back into the north. The GFS tries to get a ridge going after next weekend but it may be short lived and doesn't look we will be on the warm side of the ridge either if it happens so temperatures look set to remain either cooler than average or average.

    ECM doesn't show this ridge after next weekend, remains on the cool and unsettled side.

    No real change to our weather over the next 14 days with lows continuing to topple in over any ridges that try to get going. The north and west will always be at more risk from rain while southern and eastern areas will still be unsettled they will have a better change of maybe having the odd dry day here and there.


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    #199
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,817 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    A little bit of hope for something more settled at the end of the run, rocky ground though, would want to see this trend for a few runs. No great heat with this but improving the last few days, on this run anyway.

    AcfW9Ha.gif

    0BYqVbI.gif


    qClUkdv.gif


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    #200
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Think tropical depression 5 is likely to cause some model flip flopping as seen already today.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #201
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    some positive signs of a warming trend after this week.

    looks generally cool and unsettled this week but an improving scene from next weekend. GFS wants to build high pressure over next week, however it does not look like a long term return to settled conditions, may get 2 or 3 decent days which I would gladly take at this stage, before things may turn unsettled again.

    The GFS has already played about with high pressures a few times over the past week and backed off quickly, so it remains to be seen if this will actually happen.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64969&var=201&run=6&date=2020-07-05&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    High pressure gets going next Sunday but temperatures still a bit on the cool side.

    GFSOPEU06_165_1.png

    Temperatures 16 to 22C, not great by any means but certainly better than what we've had over the past few weeks.

    GFSOPUK06_177_5.png

    High pressure lasts till about Tuesday evening or Wednesday before things turn unsettled again.

    GFSOPEU06_252_1.png

    We finish back at square one with a flat westerly and a series of low pressures lining up for our direction.

    GFSOPEU06_384_1.png

    ECM also very similar to the GFS, settles things down next Saturday/Sunday and this lasts till about Wednesday.

    ECMOPEU00_192_1.png

    UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

    UKMO shows the high arriving next Saturday (as far as the model goes), however it does look very short lived on this chart with that spoiler low just waiting to topple over the ridge.

    GEM again similar to the other models, has high pressure building next weekend and it lasts as far as Wednesday and could extend by an extra day or two.

    GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

    This is still a week away so a lot of chopping and changing may happen over the next few days. This does not like a pattern change or a return to a prolonged dry and warm spell by any means. We will do well to get 3 to 4 settled days from this but at this stage I will take anything that's going as a break from this unsettled mess of a summer we've had so far.


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    #202
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,817 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z holding the improved charts from around Fri , warmth slow to build but better outlook from this run showing temperatures going from the mid to high teens around Fri and getting up to the low to mid 20's by the following Weds. More settled and drier if it verifies.


    CVcfQL0.gif

    5WIGLgj.gif

    RN0rewU.gif


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    #203
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I hope the ECM is on to something. I really need a few days dry weather to get the meadow cut.


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    #204
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    nacho libre wrote: »
    I hope the ECM is on to something. I really need a few days dry weather to get the meadow cut.

    Still wouldn't place hedge bets on this verifying yet. It all seems a few days at best to me with how everything lines up including this Arctic high that continues to accelerate sea ice melt. The temperature contrast coming out of Newfoundland playing a role too although with a strong Azores ridge, this shouldn't matter and would actually amplify a settled pattern provided the jet plays along.

    In terms of temperatures, may look cool due to the airmass contained but in the high summer sunshine if we do get any (yes we are in high summer even though recent inclement weather would make you think otherwise!), they should respond nicely to pleasant levels of low 20s provided a lack of onshore sea breezes. If we held off the Atlantic trough long enough which ECM does, I'd say mid-20s would be likely as the wind tilts more to a southeasterly direction by mid-week but I'd say this is an unlikely option for now.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #205
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 12z followed ECM 0z in flattening the high pressure as soon as Monday next. ECM 12z follows on from this with a showery upper trough reintroducing a northwesterly for a time on Tuesday but then high pressure takes over again immediately with this trough being weak. Looks like this high is inflated from an upper trough descending towards Iberia and Arctic ridging looks to weaken. In fact, ECM to me looks like a pattern that would be more conducive to prolonged dry conditions although still think this is an unlikely option.

    GEM is similar in the high weakening fairly quickly next week but manages to keep a ridge that looks like reinvigorating at the end to something similar to the ECM if we could go on a day or two forward. Also looks quite warm.

    Trend still going for a more settled period but day to day keeps changing on the details and I feel it's important to keep this all in mind.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #206
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,817 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Outlook looking a lot better than of late I would think. No scorcher but coming in about average or a bit above for the time of year. Not all dry but better , less windy and more settled conditions. Looks like high teens for a few days touching 20 in places, close to mid 20's at the end of the run still showing up.


    ET043Sw.gif

    CRMkZko.gif

    v57WS8w.gif

    anim_amx4.gif


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    #207
    new2tri19
    Registered Users Posts: 530 ✭✭✭new2tri19


    if you change thread title to Summer instead of Spring things might start to change .


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    #208
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    new2tri19 wrote: »
    if you change thread title to Summer instead of Spring things might start to change .

    I'll be closing this thread instead, we have a Summer 2020 thread which hasn't been posted on much: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058082854


This discussion has been closed.
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