Saturday 28/11

BurtMacklin wrote: »

PP still paying 4 places. Or so they just said in the shop.

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Last long post now I swear




The Hennessy Gold Cup is the big race of the day. This is a big race to follow stats and trends in. 6 year olds, 7 year olds and 8 year olds do really well in this race. Mainly 7 year olds. Also it's best to follow the classier type of horse at the top of the weights. Look for a horse that’s carrying 10 stone 12 lbs or more and an unexposed horse who hasn’t run in very many handicap chases. That usually narrows down to a list to a select few horses. From using the trends and taking form, distance, going and current form into mind we’re left with a list of 4 horses, Saphir Du Rheu, Smad Place, If In Doubt and The Young Master.

Saphir Du Rheu has a very tough challenge to take on. The mighty Denman is the only horse that I can think of that has won this race off top weight in recent years. Paul Nicholls who trained Denman also trains this horse. He tried novice chases with his horse a few seasons with this horse a few seasons back but he didn’t take to the fences straight away. He sent him back over hurdles last season and he did really well, he won the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle and was 2nd in the G1 World Hurdle. That is very good form indeed. His trainer then decided to try fences with this horse again and he won a G1 novice chase at the Aintree festival. First time up this season he beat today’s rival The Young Master by 7 lengths. The runner up is 12lbs better off with him today though and he will come on from that run too. Saphir Du Rheu would also prefer better ground than this. I think the weight may catch him out in this soft ground but I think he will run a good race. The Young Master should finish in front of him today. He went up 51 lbs for winning 5 races last season. He went from strength to strength. He stays all day, he loves the ground and he has a great chance off a nice weight.

Smad Place is the class horse in this race. Like Saphir Du Rheu he was very talented over hurdles and was placed in the World Hurdle. Smad Place was 5th in this race last year off the same mark. He looked like the winner turning for home and he just faded out of contention before 2 out. There were some decent horses finish in front of him though, the horse that won the race went on to win the Grand National. He was in need of a run that day I feel. He’s already had a run this season and he won in great style winning from today's rival Fingal Bay. He should confirm those placings today and I’m hopeful of a big run from this horse today and I think he could be a Cheltenham Gold Cup Contender this season. If In Doubt is the only horse in this race that ticks all the boxes trendwise. He’s a seven year old, 6 of the last 10 winners of this race were also that age. On form he has to show improvement today to win but he does have the scope to do that. He is also very nicely weighted. The only doubt with this horse is his jumping. If he jumps well enough I think he’ll go very close.

Prediction:
1st: Smad Place
2nd: If In Doubt
3rd: The Young Master

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Long post incoming

Lot of racing today. Here's my best bets for today.


Saturdays Best Bets:
Tea In Transvaal 6/4 - 12:15 Newbury ★★★★
She has been in great form lately. She’s won 4 of her last 5 starts. She has gone up 23lbs in the ratings. Run’s in a mares novice hurdle here and can run off level weights. She’s 12 lbs well in with the 2nd favourite and she’s 24 lbs better off with Hopes Wishes. The others don’t have a handicap mark over hurdles yet but none of them would come close to this horse's rating. She ran in a much stronger race than this at cheltenham last time out. That race was against geldings so she’ll be much better taking on her same sex here. Not won over hurdles on soft ground but did win a maiden on the flat in heavy ground. So there's no ground worries. On ratings I can’t see her getting beat. As we know it doesn’t always go to plan. If she comes 2nd and you bet with Paddy Power you get your money back as free bet (Singles Only). We think she will win though.
Ballydine 2/1 - 1:00 Newcastle ★★★★
Came 2nd to the talented Fingerontheswitch first time up. Then he demolished a field in a maiden hurdle by 10 lengths. That was over today's trip of 2m 6f on soft ground at Stratford on his second attempt over hurdles. He traveled well and was an incredibly impressive, winning with plenty in hand. The forecast ground conditions in his favour and he will likely take plenty of stopping. Wholestone was no match for the selection that day and will not reverse placings today. The form of that run gives him leading claims in this race as he beat some good horses. There should be plenty more to come from him. Certainly bred to do better too, he’s closely related to his stablemate and the dual Grade 2 scorer Kilcooley. We think Ballydine will be too good for them today.
Top Notch 9/2 - 2:05 Newcastle ★★★ 2nd
Ex French horse who went from strength last season. He won 4 novice hurdles in a row and only came up a half a length short to his stable mate Peace and Co in the Triumph hurdle at the Cheltenham festival. Top Notch started this season of in a hot race at Haydock. He tried to make all but race fitness proved a factor as he was just found wanting to a fitter horse in Irving. Top Notch jumped and traveled so well that day and he was running Irving all the way to the line. Top Notch is tough and genuine and he loves soft ground. Irving already had a run when he beat Top Notch last time out, I think the placings will be reversed today. I think Top Notch will finish in front of Irving. He does have stern competition from a few others though.
The Irish Challenger Wicklow Brave will be tough to beat and so will Beltor. Wicklow Brave has done really well on the flat this season, he was placed in a group 2 race. That suggested to me he would also improve over hurdles. He started out the national hunt season by running a good 3rd behind stablemates Faugheen and Nicholas Canyon. He did well to get as close to them as he did as they were both in need of a run. His previous hurdle form is okay, other than winning the martin pipe hurdle at the cheltenham festival there isn’t much else of value. I think Top Notch has more scope than Wicklow Brave over hurdles. The biggest challenger to Top Notch may well be Beltor who like Top Notch, is also a 2nd season hurdler. Beltor hacked up in 2 races last season and ran an alright race at Cheltenham. He finished a fair bit behind Top Notch in that race but he pulled very hard and didn’t get up the hill. This is a cracking race, I’m hoping Top Notch will be too good and too game for them but he’s no cert.
Ibis Du Rheu 7/2 - 1:50 Newbury ★★ 2nd
This horse won over hurdles in France as a 3 year old and also came 2nd to the talented Top Notch who has since won 4 races and finished runner up in a Grade 2. Ibis Du Rheu had 2 runs for his new yard last season. The first one is best to ignore, he was not fit and he pulled way too hard. The second of those runs for this stable last winter was a fair effort though that was full of promise. He came fourth in a handicap hurdle after pulling very hard all throughout the race. His trainer thinks he has sorted that problem. He should be more settled today in a first-time hood and tongue tie. Ma Filleule brings the best form into the race but she doesn’t win that often. Ibis Du Rheu is the dark horse in the race, he’s the one that we haven’t seen the best of yet. It’s quite possible that this half brother to the stable's high class Hennessy contender Saphir Du Rheu can improve now he's had more time to acclimatize. If he goes to 4/1 he’s a cracking each way price. As is, I think he has a great chance.
Smad Place 8/1 3:00 Newbury ★★ :D
Smad Place is the class horse in this race. Like Saphir Du Rheu he was very talented over hurdles and was placed in the World Hurdle. Smad Place was 5th in this race last year off the same mark. He looked like the winner turning for home and he just faded out of contention before 2 out. There were some decent horses finish in front of him though, the horse that won the race went on to win the Grand National. He was in need of a run that day I feel. He’s already had a run this season and he won in great style winning from today's rival Fingal Bay. He should confirm those placings today and I’m hopeful of a big run from this horse today and I think he could be a Cheltenham Gold Cup Contender this season
Briery Queen 5/1 - 3:05 Doncaster ★★ :D
Half-sister to fairly useful staying hurdler/chaser Briery Fox. Briery Queen has yet to win a race in 5 starts but she has showed useful form in defeat in bumpers last term. Hurdling and chasing were always going to be her game though. Very much one to note now hurdling. She has been crying out for a step up in trip and she gets it today. All of her runs were over 2 miles and she steps up a half a mile in distance today. That will bring out a lot of improvement in her. She finished off all her races to great effect last season over a trip too short. I really don’t get why she is not a smaller price than this seeing that she has already finished 6 lengths in front of the 4/5 favourite in this race. She was in receipt of 3lbs that day, she is in receipt of a further 3lbs today and the jockey is also claiming another 3lbs off. She's 6lbs better off with the horse she beat by 6 lengths. That race that she was 2nd in and that Robins Reef was 4th in was a top top race. Copper Kay who split the pair that day has won 2 races this season already. Robins Reef does come from a powerful stable and has won over hurdles already but I think she's a terribly price. Back Briery Queen each way, I think she’ll be place but I also think she has a great chance of beating the 4/5 favourite Robins Reef.
Abracadabra Sivola 7/1 1:15 Newbury ★
Best efforts on soft to heavy ground. He was never at his best last season, ran on ground he didn’t like most of the time. He was runner up on return to fences this term over 3m at Chepstow and Exeter. He was beaten about 16l in both but the form of those runs were very good, he was going up against some top novice chases. His last run was 2nd to the very talented Native River who has since run 2nd in a Grade 2. That form may read well compared to this mark for handicap chase debut. Also the drop in trip is sure to suit him today. His trainer does very well with this sort of horse. This should be a drop in grade for him and he gets in off a very nice weight. Mosspark and the ex irish trained Si C’Etait Vrai also have chances in what is a very open race. I think Abracadabra Sivola might have too much up his sleeve for them.

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Last long post now I swear




The Hennessy Gold Cup is the big race of the day. This is a big race to follow stats and trends in. 6 year olds, 7 year olds and 8 year olds do really well in this race. Mainly 7 year olds. Also it's best to follow the classier type of horse at the top of the weights. Look for a horse that’s carrying 10 stone 12 lbs or more and an unexposed horse who hasn’t run in very many handicap chases. That usually narrows down to a list to a select few horses. From using the trends and taking form, distance, going and current form into mind we’re left with a list of 4 horses, Saphir Du Rheu, Smad Place, If In Doubt and The Young Master.

Saphir Du Rheu has a very tough challenge to take on. The mighty Denman is the only horse that I can think of that has won this race off top weight in recent years. Paul Nicholls who trained Denman also trains this horse. He tried novice chases with his horse a few seasons with this horse a few seasons back but he didn’t take to the fences straight away. He sent him back over hurdles last season and he did really well, he won the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle and was 2nd in the G1 World Hurdle. That is very good form indeed. His trainer then decided to try fences with this horse again and he won a G1 novice chase at the Aintree festival. First time up this season he beat today’s rival The Young Master by 7 lengths. The runner up is 12lbs better off with him today though and he will come on from that run too. Saphir Du Rheu would also prefer better ground than this. I think the weight may catch him out in this soft ground but I think he will run a good race. The Young Master should finish in front of him today. He went up 51 lbs for winning 5 races last season. He went from strength to strength. He stays all day, he loves the ground and he has a great chance off a nice weight.

Smad Place is the class horse in this race. Like Saphir Du Rheu he was very talented over hurdles and was placed in the World Hurdle. Smad Place was 5th in this race last year off the same mark. He looked like the winner turning for home and he just faded out of contention before 2 out. There were some decent horses finish in front of him though, the horse that won the race went on to win the Grand National. He was in need of a run that day I feel. He’s already had a run this season and he won in great style winning from today's rival Fingal Bay. He should confirm those placings today and I’m hopeful of a big run from this horse today and I think he could be a Cheltenham Gold Cup Contender this season. If In Doubt is the only horse in this race that ticks all the boxes trendwise. He’s a seven year old, 6 of the last 10 winners of this race were also that age. On form he has to show improvement today to win but he does have the scope to do that. He is also very nicely weighted. The only doubt with this horse is his jumping. If he jumps well enough I think he’ll go very close.

Prediction:
1st: Smad Place :D
2nd: If In Doubt
3rd: The Young Master

bellybuster12 wrote: »

At least the stewards are starting to take note

http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=160746

BumperD wrote: »

4 of the 5 were in those green and yellow silks. Weird.