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03-10-2020, 05:56   #31
M.T. Cranium
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Table of forecasts for October 2020


FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Temp 24h 31st


DOCARCH ___________ 10.6 _ 21.3 _ -2.8 _ 125 _ 093 ___ 3.0

sdanseo __ (-4) ______ 10.5 _ 20.5 _ -4.0 _ 125 _ 095 ___ 2.1

WesternStorm ________10.5 _ 19.5 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 110 __ -2.0

Tae laidir ____________10.4 _ 20.3 _ -3.3 _ 138 _ 094 ___ 2.3

John Mac ____________10.3 _ 20.3 _ -2.6 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 0.3

Dasa29 _____________ 10.2 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 2.0


Normal _____________ 10.1 _ 21.0 _ -2.8 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 3.0


MrSkinner ___________10.1 _ 20.1 _ -3.1 _ 111 _ 111 ___ 3.1

Rikand ______________10.0 _ 20.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 4.0

Pauldry ______________ 9.9 _ 21.1 _ -3.8 _ 155 _ 090 ___ 5.4

Kindred Spirit _________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -3.9 _ 130 _ 100 __ -1.5

Appledrop ____________ 9.9 _ 19.5 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 1.0

waterways ____________9.9 _ 18.7 _ -3.9 _ 145 _ 080 ___ 1.1

Mrstonewall ___________9.8 _ 19.4 _ -2.4 _ 111 _ 088 ___ 2.4

200motels ____________9.8 _ 19.1 _ -3.6 _ 147 _ 091 ___ 5.3


___ Con Sensus _______ 9.8 _ 19.4 _ -3.7 _ 125 _ 091 ___ 2.1


Sunflower3 ___________ 9.8 _ 19.0 _ -3.5 _ 160 _ 080 ___ 1.3

sryanbruen ___________ 9.7 _ 19.1 _ -3.1 _ 140 _ 075 ___ 2.8

mickger844posts ______ 9.7 _ 18.7 _ -3.3 _ 090 _ 080 ___ 3.8

Eon1208 ___ (-5) _____ 9.7 _ 18.6 _ -3.7 _ 127 _ 093 ___ 1.9

Danno _______________9.7 _ 17.8 _ -3.6 _ 085 _ 145 ___ 1.8

Artane2002 __________ 9.6 _ 18.7 _ -3.6 _ 157 _ 080 ___ 3.3

Dacogawa ___________ 9.5 _ 20.1 _ -3.8 _ 145 _ 082 __ -0.6

Bsal ________________ 9.5 _ 19.0 _ -4.0 _ 150 _ 091 ___ 7.0

M.T. Cranium _________ 9.4 _ 19.5 _ -4.2 _ 150 _ 070 __ -0.5

Gonzo _______________9.4 _ 18.8 _ -3.9 _ 153 _ 082 ___ 4.7

Adam240610 ___ (-2) __9.1 _ 20.1 _ -4.2 _ 100 _ 111 ___ 3.3

BLIZZARD7 __________ 8.8 _ 18.7 _ -4.7 _ 150 _ 080 __ -3.0

Jpmarn ______________8.7 _ 18.5 _ -3.8 _ 125 _ 085 ___ 1.4

Joe Public ____________8.4 _ 18.3 _ -4.8 _ 120 _ 083 ___ 2.0

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

The group consensus appears to be a rather cool and wet October with more cloud than usual,

although there's quite a range of opinion.

Welcome back Danno and sdanseo, and good to see some of the "occasionals" becoming regular participants.

It appears that all 21 of the forecasters who have enough participation to qualify for the annual title have placed their bids.

The annual scoring was just updated in the September thread and it looks quite competitive to me, no big leads and quite a few scores bunched up in the middle of the table, so almost anything could happen with three months left to go. Good luck to everyone.
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03-10-2020, 11:43   #32
pauldry
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Sun seems to be way up to normal so far and not as wet as thought by most but maybe that will change in the coming week.

Some models are showing drier after this week
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08-10-2020, 19:03   #33
M.T. Cranium
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After the first week ...

IMT on 9.6 which is 1.8 below normal.

MAX at least 15.8 (7th Moorepark)

MIN at least -0.8 (1st Markree)

PRC 155% of normal.

SUN 93% of normal (557/600).
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11-10-2020, 20:36   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
After the first week ...

IMT on 9.6 which is 1.8 below normal.

MAX at least 15.8 (7th Moorepark)

MIN at least -0.8 (1st Markree)

PRC 155% of normal
.

SUN 93% of normal (557/600).
Quote:
Originally Posted by pauldry View Post
Sun seems to be way up to normal so far and not as wet as thought by most but maybe that will change in the coming week.

Some models are showing drier after this week
You had to go and jinx it, didnt you ?
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12-10-2020, 14:55   #35
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Max of 16.0 at Newport yesterday.

I think that might be higest max yet.
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15-10-2020, 17:22   #36
M.T. Cranium
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After two weeks ...

IMT on 9.7, second week average was 9.8, which was 1.0 below normal.

MAX 16.0, MIN -0.8. (Max could be edged upward after today, 16 on hourly at Valentia)

PRC 96% of normal, second week rather dry at 37% over the grid (range 17 to 68 per cent).

SUN almost 130% now with a generous 166% this past week (995/600).
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22-10-2020, 13:57   #37
M.T. Cranium
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Well then, after three weeks ...

IMT still on 9.8, the third week average was also 9.8 which was 0.3 below normal for that interval.

MAX remains 16.0, MIN -0.8.

PRC has edged back above normal to 102%, with the third week 115% of normal (mostly the last two days of the interval and heavier in the west).

SUN is down a bit to 111% as week three averaged only 73% of normal (437/600).
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22-10-2020, 15:23   #38
Tae laidir
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No change to max and min.
Very small diurnal range this month.
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29-10-2020, 20:23   #39
M.T. Cranium
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Here's where things stand after four weeks with projections of end of month values ...

IMT now on 9.5 with the fourth week 8.8 which was 0.6 below normal. Today and the next two days will be quite mild and will boost the IMT to 9.7 or even 9.8 which was our consensus value. Nice going everyone.

MAX of 16.0 (very weak) has survived to present, could be edged upward either today or one of next two, although I doubt it will go more than a fraction higher and it will likely remain below all our predictions (Danno at 17.8 has the lock on high score then if so).

MIN of -0.8 will need to be reviewed on 3rd (MS day, I think, unless this be a bank holiday weekend for you, then 4th). ... This seems unlikely to change. Here again, above all our predictions, the closest we had was -2.4 from MrStonewall. Min progression (mercy rule) will be hauled out of storage for MAX and MIN.

PRC was at 106% with the fourth week similar at 116%. With today's rain and the predicted amounts incoming, would expect this to inflate slightly to an end value of 120%, our consensus was fairly good at 125%. (the math ... if the last three days average 200% then the outcome is 115%, if 250% then 120% and if 300% then 125%). The normal daily amount per station at present is around 4 mm, so my 250% would imply daily averages of 10 mm at the eleven locations. We have probably achieved that today, waiting to see how 30th and 31st work out.

SUN is back up again to 125% (fourth week 167% from 1002/600). Even with no sunshine at all 29th to 31st, that should mean an outcome of 112% so with some breaks tomorrow at least, will speculate 115% perhaps 120% the final value. While Danno foresaw 145% the second highest prediction of Rikand was 120%.

With the current forecast maps, would say the milder guesses for 31st midnight will do best, the mildest three we had were 7.0 from Bsal, 5.4 from Pauldry and 5.3 from 200motels. Could be even higher than those in a strong southwest wind flow.

A November forecast contest thread will be open some time before Friday morning, have a look for it tomorrow.
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