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01-09-2020, 12:30   #1
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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Mod Note

This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame) for Autumn 2020.

If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.

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September is finally here and already things are starting to dry out after a very wet summer.

Tomorrow looks like a fairly mild and wet day across the country, the first wet day since last Friday. After that things dry out again and turn cooler with just some light showers in places as we try to build a ridge of high pressure up from the south-west on Sunday. If the high pressure does establish itself over us for a few days, could end up with high teens to low twenties if we get lucky with sunshine. Fingers crossed.

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12-09-2020, 16:12   #2
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Looks like we will be having a fairly dry week to come for many, something we haven't seen in a long time. Temperatures also lifting up and what could be the final taste of late summer weather before Autumn really gets going.



This is the driest ensemble I've seen since probably May with very little in the way of rain over the next week. Western and north-western areas will be more unsettled at times due to a lingering band of rain moving very slowly from the west towards south-western Scotland and the western isles.

An area of high pressure will move across England and Wales from tomorrow with a warm push of south-westerly winds across Ireland and a trailing band of rain across the west and north-west.



Temperatures tomorrow generally high teens with mid teens along the west coast with rain/drizzle at times. 20 to 22C is possible across some eastern and southern areas especially if there are sunny spells, but I think tomorrow will see a good deal of cloud across most of the country.





Monday will be a cloudy day across the country with rain across the western half of the country but it doesn't look too heavy, dryer across the east and south and temperatures high teens to low 20s in eastern areas and low to mid teens across the wetter areas.





Tuesday will be similar to Monday, dry across the east and south but mostly cloudy and some patchy rain at times across the west and north.



Tuesday will be warmer day generally with high teens or low twenties.



Wednesday again mostly cloudy but there could be some sunny spells as well as patchy rain at times across the west, temperatures generally 16 to 20C.

From Thursday looks a bit more uncertain, there is the possibility of low pressure moving up from the Bay of Biscay and this could produce some fairly heavy showers particularly in western areas. Remaining dry across the east and still fairly mild at this stage but temperatures lowering as winds become more easterly.



By Thursday temperatures will be mid teens across a good part of the country but high teens still possible across the south and south-east.

Friday is quite similar but there could be another trailing band of rain across the west and north



After Friday ECM wants to bring in another area of high pressure for next weekend and temperatures may warm up again slightly, but we are getting into the 3rd week of September at this stage so proper warmth will begin to struggle as the sun begins moving into the southern hemisphere.



The GFS has us more unsettled from next Friday with the low pressure over the Bay of biscay anchoring over us for next weekend, if this happens we could be quite unsettled and cool at times.



All in all this week looks relatively dry across most eastern and southern areas and very mild for a time with cooler conditions from next Wednesday. It's all up in the air from Thursday with disagreement in the models for next weekend. This looks like a very good week to get gardening done, particularly across the east and south. The west and north-west will have a good deal of cloud and patchy rain at times from those trailing bands of rain and cloud. Unfortunately it doesn't look like we will be seeing much in the way of sunshine but if your lucky enough to get some decent sunny spells it could be rather warm, especially Monday to Wednesday.
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16-09-2020, 23:01   #3
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Getting fairly warm again tomorrow after the fog and mist burns off








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20-09-2020, 11:19   #4
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Bit of a spread in the models to where the Low forms coming up to Thurs, does it deepen as it passes Ireland or before, could be quite windy in the SW yet but will have to wait and see. Jet well fired up, could help produce a fairly deep low yet later in the week. Tues looks blustery and windy in the W,NW, N . Rainfall amounts highest along Atlantic coastal regions, not much making it's way across the country. Cold from Weds to Fri, signs of being milder over the weekend before turning cold again. Quite a Windchill Thurs and Fri.

No doubt a big contrast to the settled spell of weather that we have been experiencing.






















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21-09-2020, 21:09   #5
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Blustery day on Thursday, windy on the coasts and some models showing the SW getting clipped by strong winds. Chance of the SW getting wind warnings .UKMO and ARPEGE keeping the strongest winds off shore. Bit to go yet. Looking a bit wetter on the latest runs.













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21-09-2020, 23:34   #6
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ICON 18Z increasing the strength of the winds from late Weds /early Thurs. Still evolving, slight difference to track, deepening on approach, bringing more of the W coast into the strong winds . GFS not making too much of it on it's latest run, less than the previous run.





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22-09-2020, 21:00   #7
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Models quite similar now showing the strongest winds on Thurs staying off the SW coasts, windy along coasts with Kerry probably getting the strongest winds in coastal areas that might give a yellow warning for the county.




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22-09-2020, 23:32   #8
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ICON which has been following ECM's track and intensity closely over the last few runs has brought out a much stronger run for Munster in the 18Z and shows Kerry at least yellow and possibly getting up to orange warning level. Maybe overdoing the wind speeds a bit but still quite strong along coastal areas. Has the track come in from the NW at a higher point on this run and cross the country diagonally to the SE. Much deeper on this run and deepening on approach.















Last edited by Meteorite58; 22-09-2020 at 23:36.
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23-09-2020, 00:04   #9
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UKMO 12Z similar but French Hi Res having none of it ???

I did think that the French model was very slow to get on to this and inconsistent in it's output







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23-09-2020, 00:10   #10
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Different track and timing but strong nonetheless from the WRF 18Z


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23-09-2020, 00:23   #11
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EURO 4 18Z on the stronger side, bringing the stronger winds a bit more inland.

If the French models were showing the same as the other models I would have though there could almost be a named storm at this stage the way the models in general are upgrading this. Still odd to have the French models keeping the winds so far off the coast compared to the others, are they really on top of it or a big outlier. ECM 18Z coming out in about 40 mins or so.



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23-09-2020, 01:31   #12
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ECM 18Z not as deep as ICON and not as strong, lower track than ICON so keeping the bulk of the high winds offshore on this run, on land keeping the strongest winds to coastal areas and high ground, still yellow warning for Kerry at least.
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23-09-2020, 20:24   #13
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Well the French models moved the big winds in slightly towards the Kerry coasts and the ECMWF moved them slightly off the coasts , ICON and EURO 4 keeping quite strong winds along and over coastal fringes but would side with the ECM and AROME.






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27-09-2020, 12:12   #14
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Weather becoming increasingly wet and windy through the week coming. Sometimes the nearby LP looking quite deep but at this stage hard to know track or strength and track will determine where rain falls. For now just shows potential for very unsettled weather ( set to continue into the weekend also ). Becoming quite cool also.






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01-10-2020, 20:39   #15
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Blustery day on Sunday. Models showing huge differences on rainfall amounts, ECMWF showing the heaviest and GFS in general the least amount apart from around Dublin





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