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17-10-2020, 11:51   #76
Slashermcguirk
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November is always such a grim month. It’s one month of the year I really never look forward to, windy and wet most years. At least October you have the nice colours in the trees and as seen this months plenty of pleasant weather. December to February you tend to get some nice snow showers. November is too soon for proper winter weather and equally too late in the year for proper warmth, awful month
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17-10-2020, 13:56   #77
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Models showing it potentially getting livelier from next weekend . Jet firing up. Looks like there could be a couple of Storms about.







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17-10-2020, 14:06   #78
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Charts looking on the colder side, windy and wet in off the Atlantic with a NW'ly component to it. Will see it the trend gathers pace for rougher weather out towards the end of the run.







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17-10-2020, 18:18   #79
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Charts looking messy during last week of the month with potential for stronger storms than it is currently showing...charts might get more interesting by then

Last edited by Hooter23; 17-10-2020 at 18:21.
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17-10-2020, 18:33   #80
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Originally Posted by Hooter23 View Post
Charts looking messy during last week of the month with potential for stronger storms than it is currently showing...charts might get more interesting by then
Interesting weather nonetheless and hopefully encourages people to stay at home more.
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17-10-2020, 19:59   #81
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Interesting weather nonetheless and hopefully encourages people to stay at home more.
Indeed. The weather of late was a little conducive to the virus spreading
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18-10-2020, 15:03   #82
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Both GFS and ECMWF showing it quite windy and wet on Saturday. After that GFS going on to show other very windy spells but ECM backs off . After Saturday GEM backs off also.






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18-10-2020, 20:21   #83
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ECM back showing some very windy weather at times after the weekend , Looking like Monday and Weds and maybe Thurs also ,possibly stormy in coastal areas ( Sat quite windy also but not too strong as yet).

In general looking colder also although those 850hpa charts often moderate a bit.

Indications of very wet weather over the next 10 days from all those systems heading our way.

The Jet well and truly fired up close to and over us.

Certainly some very unsettled weather possible.











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19-10-2020, 23:46   #84
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The GFS has been showing various scenarios for early next week with some crazy deep storms forming, a couple of times like the latest run it has shown the remnants of Hurricane Epsilon being swept along the Jet and merging with LP and forming into storms. Every run is different but the latest looking particularly strong if keeping the strongest winds off Ireland. ECM showing a similar storm forming but without the remnants of Epsilon but at this stage anyway showing it potentially very windy. These charts are in flux but it is the possibility that is worth keeping an eye on.

Around Thurs again the GFS showing a disturbance but the ECM dropped this.



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21-10-2020, 00:23   #85
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ECM now showing the remnants of Epsilon merge with a LP system and much colder air than it's warm core and a steering fast jet giving a steep thermal gradient leading to a large storm forming and current projections going down as low as 912hPa well off the NW coast closer to Iceland than us but showing a very large wind field. The ECM not showing the wind as strong as the previous run for Ireland, on the other hand the GFS which has been quite consistent with this for a number of runs goes on to show it very stormy on the latest run. I am very aware this is 7 days away, and we have seen how the models have been suffering from the lack of data input from observations with wild swings from run to run from some set ups, but even on a good day these kind of set ups are usually hard to pin down until relatively close to the event or non event. The ECM was showing a number of wind events next week but once it took on the present set up it dropped a lot of the other patterns. The GFS has been more consistent in this regard showing unsettled spells next week. Will be interesting and a good learning opportunity to see how this pans out one way or the other.












Last edited by Meteorite58; 21-10-2020 at 00:29.
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21-10-2020, 00:46   #86
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A wide spread of possible outcomes so more days to have some kind of a more reliable idea.

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21-10-2020, 10:51   #87
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ECMWF back showing strong winds along Atlantic coasts but not penetrating inland much on the latest runs ( Saturdays active front looks stronger atm but fast moving )




Range of possible minimum pressures , avg seems about 930 hPa or so between the two main models.













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21-10-2020, 20:03   #88
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Similar to previous run, very deep, strongest winds on this run keeps to Atlantic coastal counties and more so to the coastal areas. Long way off though.

GFS track further away and hence lighter winds on its last run.

Very big seas predicted

At +144hrs UKMO track it further away than the ECM
















Last edited by Meteorite58; 21-10-2020 at 20:09.
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21-10-2020, 20:55   #89
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Good piece in the Met Eireann Meteorologists Commentary





https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary
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22-10-2020, 09:27   #90
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GFS has backed off the Remnant Low next week but keeps secondary Lows firing up in towards us. ECM brings the track closer but not showing the secondary lows come as close as the GFS so lots of uncertainty yet.

Currently ECM showing coastal areas getting the strong winds late Tues / early Weds

UKMO appears to be taking a track like the GFS, ICON bit closer like ECM. GEM tracks it up towards Greenland.











Last edited by Meteorite58; 22-10-2020 at 09:31.
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