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02-09-2020, 17:26   #31
pauldry
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So far approx to 5pm

Dublin 20mm
Cork 8mm
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03-09-2020, 03:54   #32
M.T. Cranium
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Table of forecasts for September 2020




FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ 2nd Sept rain (Cork, DubA)

M.T. Cranium _________ 14.0 _ 24.5 _ 0.0 _ 102 _ 105 ___ 10.5 _ 8.8

BLIZZARD7 __ (-3) ____ 13.7 _ 26.0 _ 0.0 _ 125 _ 105 ___ 11.5 _ 8.8

MrStonewall __________ 13.7_ 23.7 _--0.4_ 082 _ 110 ____8.0 _ 5.0

Pauldry ______________13.6 _ 22.5 _ 0.3 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 15.0 _ 9.0

Artane2002 __________ 13.4 _ 23.8 _--0.2_ 110 _ 095 ___ 12.0 _ 8.0

Dacogawa ___________ 13.4 _ 23.5 _--0.2_ 155 _ 090 ____ 3.0 _12.0

Gonzo ______________ 13.4 _ 22.9 _--1.8_ 072 _ 116 ___ 19.0 _ 7.0

mickger844posts ______13.4 _ 22.1 _ 1.3 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 10.0 _ 8.0

Tae laidir ____________13.4 _ 21.4 _--2.0_ 134 _ 104 ____ 6.0 _ 8.0

Joe Public ___________ 13.3 _ 25.5 _--1.5_ 130 _ 095 ___ 15.0 _12.0

waterways __ (-2) ____ 13.3 _ 24.3 _--2.0_ 107 _ 108 ____ 4.1 _17.6

Dasa29 _____________ 13.3 _ 24.0 _--1.0_ 095 _ 125 ___ 12.0 _10.0

john mac ____________13.3 _ 23.5 _ 0.2 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 8.0 _ 4.0


____ Con Sensus _____ 13.3 _ 23.3 _ 0.0 _ 104 _ 101 ___ 10.3 _ 8.9


sryanbruen __________ 13.3 _ 22.2 _--0.3_ 090 _ 100 ____ 9.0 _ 6.0

Jpmarn _____________ 13.2 _ 23.8 _ 0.4 _ 115 _ 110 ___ 12.5 _18.8

200motels ___________13.2 _ 23.5 _ 1.1 _ 088 _ 101 ___ 22.0 _25.0

Sunflower3 __________13.2 _ 22.8 _ 1.0 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 5.5 _ 7.5


____ NormaL ________13.1 _ 25.5 _--1.0_ 100 _ 100 ____ 3.0 _16.0


Rikand _____________ 13.0 _ 24.0 _ 1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 5.0 _12.0

WesternStorm _______ 12.9 _ 23.2 _ 1.5 _ 098 _ 103 ____ 9.0 _ 7.0

DOCARCH __________ 12.9 _ 22.8 _--0.4_ 105 _ 115 ___ 12.2 _ 3.8

Kindred Spirit ________12.9 _ 22.0 _ 0.0 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 12.0 _12.0

Bsal _______________ 12.9 _ 21.9 _--1.0_ 105 _ 095 ____ 6.0 _ 7.5

Adam240610 __ (-1) __12.8 _ 23.3 _ 0.1 _ 085 _ 120 ____ 4.0 _10.0

Appledrop __ (-2) ____ 12.6 _ 22.5 _ 1.2 _ 075 _ 085 ___ 10.0 _13.0

MrSkinner ___________12.5 _ 24.0 _ 1.0 _ 130 _ 090 ___ 17.0 _17.0

Tazio _______________12.5 _ 21.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 9.0 _25.0

=================================================

(NormaL prediction for the bonus is based on GFS "accumulated rainfall" differentials 00z 2nd - 00z 3rd at the contest deadline. This is "normal" in the sense that it's the normal way to predict the rainfall. The other way to score NormaL would be to take normal amounts of rainfall daily (2.5-3.0 mm) but obviously that would score zero for NormaL in this context.)

Would say already the most likely results are around 8 mm and 23 mm respectively, looks like Tazio, JPmarn and waterways had the best calls on this. GFS at least foresaw the regional trend better than many of our forecasts.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 03-09-2020 at 03:57.
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03-09-2020, 05:45   #33
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14.0, 23.2, 1.2, 98, 92

Apologies late. Was so busy. Try to make time next month
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03-09-2020, 09:39   #34
M.T. Cranium
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Okay I will score that and apply a penalty, same general idea as previous times, but coming in this late I won't alter the contest consensus.

So the results are Cork 8.1 mm, Dub(A) 23.1 mm.

Here's how I will score this, superbonus will be built into this method, you can score up to 6 points for each, so if you're in the top four in each, you'll get the two extra points, if close in one and tops in another, one extra. With 26 forecasts, there will be four scores at each level until reaching zero which will have just two. I expect a number of ties will complicate this (and con sensus, normal get their scores separately). In one case I moved a score from the five group to the six group due to similarity of error (MrSkinner, DubA).

So here's how it looks for scoring on the bonus question, numbers in brackets are departures from the actual amounts:

Score __ Cork ___________________________________ Dublin ______________________________

6 _ MrStonewall (-0.1), John mac (-0.1), _____________ 200 motels, Tazio (both 1.9) , JPmarn (-4.3)
___sryanbruen, Western Storm, Tazio (all 0.9) ________ waterways (-5.5), MrSkinner (-6.1)
___________________________________________________________________________________

5 _ mickger844posts (1.9), Appledrop (1.9), __________ NormaL (-7.1), Appledrop (-10.1)
___Bsal (-2.1), tae laidir (-2.1) _Con Sensus (2.2) _____ Rikand, Joe Public, dacogawa, KS (all -11.1)
___________________________________________________________________________________

4 _ M.T. Cranium (2.4), sunflower3 (-2.6), Rikand (-3.1) _ dasa29, Adam240610 (both -13.1)
___________________________________________________________________________________

3 _ BLIZZARD7 (3.4), Artane2002, KS, dasa29 (all 3.9) __ Pauldry (-14.1), MTC, BLIZ (-14.3), ConS (-14.2)
___________________________________________________________________________________

2 _ Adam240610 (-4.1), waterways (-4.0), ____________ Tae laidir, mickger844p, Artane2002 (all -15.1),
___DOCARCH (4.1), JPmarn (4.4) ___________________ sunflower3, Bsal (both -15.6)

___________________________________________________________________________________

1 _ Pauldry (6.9), Joe Public (6.9), ___________________ Western Storm, Gonzo (both -16.1)
___MrSkinner (8.9), dacogawa and NormaL (-5.1) _______ sryanbruen (-17.1), MrStonewall (-18.1)

___________________________________________________________________________________

0 _ Gonzo (10.9), 200motels (13.9) __________________ John mac (-19.1), DOCARCH (-19.3)
____________________________________________________________________________________


So the total scores are

12 _ Tazio (great work)

10 _ Appledrop

09 _ Rikand

08 _ Kindred Spirit, JPmarn, waterways, Con Sensus

07 _ sryanbruen, MrSkinner, Tae laidir, M.T. Cranium, MrStonewall, Western Storm,
____ mickger844posts, Bsal, dasa29

06 _ Adam240610, 200motels, John mac, sunflower3, dacogawa, BLIZZARD7, Joe Public, NormaL

05 _ Artane2002

04 _ Pauldry

03 _

02 _ DOCARCH

01 _ Gonzo

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 03-09-2020 at 09:43.
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03-09-2020, 18:50   #35
Tae laidir
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Phoenix Park sneaked in a 22.5 yesterday.
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08-09-2020, 17:03   #36
M.T. Cranium
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So after the first week of September ...

IMT was 14.8 which is 0.7 above normal.

MAX of 22.5 probably nudged upward today. MIN yet to come.

PRC is 139% of normal, the trends were wetter further north, some southern locations were below normal.

SUN is at 74% of normal (444/600).

Yer bonus is already scored above, well done Tazio (12 points) and Appledrop (10). Rikand had 9/10 also.
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08-09-2020, 20:02   #37
pauldry
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Oak Park 23.7c
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14-09-2020, 20:03   #38
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Pheonix Park 24.7c
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15-09-2020, 13:51   #39
M.T. Cranium
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After two weeks ...

IMT 14.9 C, second week averaged 15.1, 1.4 above normal for the interval. Could say it's likely 15.1 after today.

MAX 24.7, MIN tbd **

PRC now at 97% of normal, after a dry week in most of the country except for the far north (grid average 54% but without Malin Head, about 30%).

SUN only 68.8% of normal, with this past week quite dull at 63.5% (381/600).

** Sooner or later we'll have some respectable mins but not yet.
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21-09-2020, 12:22   #40
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Min 2.4°C recorded at Markee 20th.
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22-09-2020, 14:10   #41
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After three weeks ...

IMT on 14.8 with third week 14.5, 1.4 above normal for the period.

MAX 24.7 and MIN 2.4.

PRC down to 66% with the third week almost dry (5% of normal).

SUN recovered to 97.5% of normal, with the third week at 155% (929/600).

Rather cool this coming week but may recover slightly near end of month, even 11.0 for nine days would leave the outcome near highest forecast of 14.0. MAX likely done, MIN could drop a bit. PRC will bounce back and end close to normal, SUN will struggle to stay above 90% and may finish around 85.
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24-09-2020, 12:26   #42
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Min Now 1.0°C recorded at Mt Dillon 23rd.
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26-09-2020, 06:56   #43
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Currently -2 at Mt. Dillion.
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26-09-2020, 10:01   #44
pauldry
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Good God.
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26-09-2020, 11:28   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by appledrop View Post
Currently -2 at Mt. Dillion.
I think Markee Sligo was also hovering at -2C this morning.
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