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18-10-2020, 11:57   #91
ZX7R
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Originally Posted by Jimbob1977 View Post
Does anyone happen to know if October snowfall is possible?

In my lifetime, I can only remember snow in November to April.

I seem to recall May 1st snowfall in the late 1980s.
I remember snow falling in October at least 4 times during my childhood living in Wicklow.
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18-10-2020, 11:58   #92
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Originally Posted by Humberto Salazar View Post
MT warning his winter forecast may not be what we want to hear tomorrow. I do want to see a very mild November and early December, then by law of averages the pattern must change by mid to end December to much colder weather. And we're due a colder than average winter. Purely speculating here, no science involved.
He mentions the word mild is going to get a decent workout this winter, it couldn't be even milder than last winter unless were talking about 12-15C days throughout the winter 3 month period and a record breaking Polar Vortex that beats last year's record breaking PV.
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18-10-2020, 13:14   #93
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Luckily MT is as accurate as every long range forecast

Still, looking forward to hearing his thoughts.
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18-10-2020, 14:14   #94
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Originally Posted by Humberto Salazar View Post
MT warning his winter forecast may not be what we want to hear tomorrow. I do want to see a very mild November and early December, then by law of averages the pattern must change by mid to end December to much colder weather. And we're due a colder than average winter. Purely speculating here, no science involved.

This is the impression i got from his post last week. As we see the polar vortex is now firing up, which could last months before we get a pattern change.
However if systems start to run on a nw- se axis we could eek some snow days out of it in some parts of the country, but it will be short-lived before the Atlantic takes over again.
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18-10-2020, 15:16   #95
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the Atlantic is set to be unleashed and the PV is going to really power up over the next few weeks, however that is perfectly normal behavior for November. It's rare that we get a dry and cold November. November is typically one of the wettest months of the year as the PV usually kicks itself into gear by November. November 2018 and November 2019 were both incredibly wet here in Meath.
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18-10-2020, 17:09   #96
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Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
the Atlantic is set to be unleashed and the PV is going to really power up over the next few weeks, however that is perfectly normal behavior for November. It's rare that we get a dry and cold November. November is typically one of the wettest months of the year as the PV usually kicks itself into gear by November. November 2018 and November 2019 were both incredibly wet here in Meath.
Yes it is, but once the Polar Vortex powers up it can last for months depending on how strong it is. We just have to hope it can be split or disrupted at some stage. It will be disappointing , with all the low solar activity in recent years, if we don't get something favourable this winter.
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18-10-2020, 17:13   #97
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I remember a work colleague of mine last year talking about how even in her native Estonia they had no snow that Christmas, and temperatures were about 15 degrees above average, seems to be the same depressing story elsewhere in Europe. The thing is that it would have be considered weird a decade ago, but at least in this part of the world its fully expected at this stage. Every consecutive winter seems to be guaranteed to be worse than the one that went before. As much as I dislike the term as it’s been used this year, this seems to be the new normal (and as with every year, I’d very much like to be proven wrong).
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18-10-2020, 21:30   #98
M.T. Cranium
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Well you might not find this too discouraging ... the winter outlook that I will be including in the morning forecast ...

Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts.
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18-10-2020, 21:56   #99
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Well you might not find this too discouraging ... the winter outlook that I will be including in the morning forecast ...

Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts.
The cold usually gets pushed out to March/April,seems to be the trend more often than not the last 10 years
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18-10-2020, 23:02   #100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Well you might not find this too discouraging ... the winter outlook that I will be including in the morning forecast ...

Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts.
that almost sounds like a repeat of last winter, not good news at all!
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18-10-2020, 23:12   #101
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Well you might not find this too discouraging ... the winter outlook that I will be including in the morning forecast ...

Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts.
I'll take it. I much rather cold weather at or after Christmas. There's not a lot else happening in January/February.
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18-10-2020, 23:26   #102
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I'll take it. I much rather cold weather at or after Christmas. There's not a lot else happening in January/February.

So do I but according to MT January is a write off so we’re left with February which is a long time to wait. So hard to get a cold, snowy week in January these days. Last one was Jan 2010. 2013 was cold in parts but we got only got cold rain at lower levels.
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18-10-2020, 23:33   #103
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V much an amateur when it comes to all things forecasting. But is there a strong connection between full moons and wind storms?
I believe there is yes. Not much of an expert to be honest. I’ll leave it for someone with more knowledge to answer this.
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18-10-2020, 23:37   #104
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The scenario I outlined doesn't exclude all of January, wasn't there a pretty good snowfall event in late Jan 2009 that continued into first few days of February? Had there been much wintry action before that? I seem to recall Jan 2009 being a rather cold month generally at least in Britain. The signal I've come across in the analogue set is basically a transitional zonal to blocking signal. We have to hope it comes early and well-defined. Reminds me a bit of 2012-13 which was no blockbuster of a winter but have we seen a better one since? (late Feb 2018 excluded)
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18-10-2020, 23:42   #105
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Originally Posted by Cluedo Monopoly View Post
I'll take it. I much rather cold weather at or after Christmas. There's not a lot else happening in January/February.
cold in the second half of winter usually gets delayed week by week and suddenly it's almost April, just when the PV start's to weaken.

If MT's forecast proofs to be correct we better start hoping for a major SSW event in December or early January at the latest.

But back to the present, we still have 6 weeks of Autumn left to go so winter is still quite a while away. The jetstream and the PV are powering up very quickly now, let's hope it doesn't stay relentless the entire way through the winter like it did last year!.
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