Could an Independent Scotland turn violent?

04-05-2021 9:36pm #1

If Scotland achieves it's independence in the near future, is there a prospect that the situation might turn violent?

From my own personal view, Scotland has a large English population and going independent wouldn't change English people from moving to Scotland, living there and applying for jobs. Given it's lack of an official language other than English, independence wouldn't really make much of a difference to the average person.

In fact, independence could actually do damage to the country, for instance Scottish people maybe inclined to openly discriminate against English people in education, housing, employment etc.

The success attributed to Ireland's break from the union was the Irish language. The Irish language, in it's official capacity, created an environment where Irish people could be favored on the grounds that they spoke the native language. In a way it was positive discrimination.

I don't know if any of you have been to Scotland, but the English occupy a large number of management positions in the civil service, the police, the army etc. and also their presence is felt in the universities where in some instances, they are the majority.

What would be the reason to deny them these positions in an independent Scotland, from our own experience, being born abroad wouldn't be enough? There would need to be something else. How would they de-anglicize the country, since that would be the whole purpose of leaving the union?

Your thoughts?

deeperlearning · 04-05-2021 9:39pm

So the Tory party is getting worried?

B2021M · 04-05-2021 9:41pm

Might the potential source of trouble/violence not be more likely to be sectarianism?

touts · 04-05-2021 9:41pm

Nope. They sent most of the Scottish lunatic gene pool to Ulster a few hundred years ago.

Seriously though I don't think passions are that strong either way in Scotland. They will argue about it and at times those arguments will become heated but in my experience of the Scots both sides have a much stronger respect for democracy than either side in Northern Ireland. The vote will be accepted with a shrug of the shoulders by the losing side.

Cosmo Kramer · 04-05-2021 9:47pm

Unless you mean in terms of angry unionist Rangers fans causing trouble in Glasgow (which already happens from time to time anyway) then no.

15+ years living here has taught me that the Scots are a fairly reserved bunch overall. Whatever happens they'll just get on with it and make do.

FWIW my view is that it won't happen in any of our lifetimes. That reserved approach among the majority means that, when it comes down to it, they won't take the risk that's involved in voting for indy.

04-05-2021 9:54pm

B2021M wrote: »

Might the potential source of trouble/violence not be more likely to be sectarianism?

The english are part of that ethnic divide.

Harry Palmr · 04-05-2021 9:54pm

The English should hold all those drunk homeless Scots in London hostage to stop this sort of thing!

An independent Scotland is not going to start getting violent on nationality grounds. Like every modern democracy the population is diverse. People from here, there and everywhere. It would be economically and societally destructive to single out the English obviously. Any English or other who don't like an independent Scotland would leave over time so probably a good idea to make it inclusive. See economy.

Mr.Nice Guy · 04-05-2021 10:31pm

I don't see major violence taking hold but I do think there is the potential for street unrest and disorder if the Tories stubbornly refuse any discussion of a referendum, assuming a mandate is provided in the election on Thursday.

It's a very dangerous game to tell people that there is no democratic basis for them to enact change. We know how that story goes.

05-05-2021 7:52am

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I don't see major violence taking hold but I do think there is the potential for street unrest and disorder if the Tories stubbornly refuse any discussion of a referendum, assuming a mandate is provided in the election on Thursday.

It's a very dangerous game to tell people that there is no democratic basis for them to enact change. We know how that story goes.

there was street unrest and civil disorder from SNP supporters when they lost in 2014, so I would say violence between Scots with different view points is likely whatever the outcome.

bob mcbob · 05-05-2021 10:44am

Aegir wrote: »

there was street unrest and civil disorder from SNP supporters when they lost in 2014, so I would say violence between Scots with different view points is likely whatever the outcome.

Is this the civil disorder you are talking about? From the SNP supporters?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/19/violence-glasgow-scotland-loyalists-attack-independence-supporters

At one point a section of the crowd broke through police lines and marched up the central shopping area of Buchanan Street, chanting the words to Rule Britannia. Some shouted loyalist slogans and racist abuse, and appeared to make Nazi salutes.

05-05-2021 11:34am

bob mcbob wrote: »

Is this the civil disorder you are talking about? From the SNP supporters?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/19/violence-glasgow-scotland-loyalists-attack-independence-supporters

At one point a section of the crowd broke through police lines and marched up the central shopping area of Buchanan Street, chanting the words to Rule Britannia. Some shouted loyalist slogans and racist abuse, and appeared to make Nazi salutes.

Yes

Six people were arrested amid angry scenes in Glasgow on Friday night as a group of young pro-union supporters clashed with pro-independence supporters who had been gathering in George Square throughout the day.

whoever started it, the chances of violence are pretty high i would say.

Especially when 25% of both sides of the debate are happy to use violence to get their way https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/quarter-of-voters-would-turn-to-violence-to-win-v5bb7lwqf

bob mcbob · 05-05-2021 12:48pm

Aegir wrote: »

Yes

whoever started it, the chances of violence are pretty high i would say.

Especially when 25% of both sides of the debate are happy to use violence to get their way https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/quarter-of-voters-would-turn-to-violence-to-win-v5bb7lwqf

20 arrests on a Friday night in Glasgow - not normal but nothing remarkable.

Your survey is very convenient - it fits in with a pattern. The same was said about Brexit. If the hardline Brexiteers didn't get their way, there was going to be civil war.

Larbre34 · 05-05-2021 2:41pm

You couldn't rule out some aggro in advance of another very divisive referendum, but a deterioration into wholesale violent factionism? I doubt it.

05-05-2021 7:04pm

Xgemone wrote: »

I don't think that in the modern world, the aggressiveness of countries is quickly eliminated, except if the country has nuclear weapons

I am prepared to bet everything I own on there being no nuclear weapons used as a result of a Scottish Independence referendum.

pixelburp · 05-05-2021 7:28pm

Political violence? No, I think bar inevitable protests with heavy police presence, I can't see a huge upswing in that sort of thing ... outside of the Old Firm, where yes; I could see the frustration of the traditionally unionist support of Rangers boiling over. Not that I expect Celtic supporters to be gracious winners mind you

A yes vote is not going to be a wipeout if it happens, so the question really is: how do you bring along the 40% of Scotland against the vote? Being more specific: how do you placate the hardcore minority of that 40%, those who won't just roll with the new reality coming down the tracks

Jimbob1977 · 05-05-2021 7:32pm

Apart from Quebec, can anyone name a country/territory that voted against its own independence?

Australia monarchy/republic debate excepted.

L1011 · 05-05-2021 8:23pm

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

Apart from Quebec, can anyone name a country/territory that voted against its own independence?

Australia monarchy/republic debate excepted.

Loads. New Caledonia quite recently, twice

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_New_Caledonian_independence_referendum

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Caledonian_independence_referendum

05-05-2021 9:16pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

You couldn't rule out some aggro in advance of another very divisive referendum, but a deterioration into wholesale violent factionism? I doubt it.

Scotland's modern police have far more resources than the Gardai have. I suspect the reason for this is Scotland's sectarian divide. If Scotland went independent, they wouldn't have the same resources they have now. Im sure the cracks would start to appear then.

saabsaab · 05-05-2021 9:45pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Scotland's modern police have far more resources than the modern Gardai have. I suspect the reason for this is Scotland's sectarian divide. If Scotland went independent, they wouldn't have the same resources they have now. Im sure the cracks would start to appear then.

What would happen to the nuclear bases there?

05-05-2021 10:11pm

saabsaab wrote: »

What would happen to the nuclear bases there?

Nuclear bases are policed by the Mod Police which is completely separate from the usual constabulary.

saabsaab · 05-05-2021 10:28pm

Aegir wrote: »

Nuclear bases are policed by the Mod Police which is completely separate from the usual constabulary.

So the nuclear deterrent would be under Scottish control?

Dank Janniels · 05-05-2021 10:42pm

saabsaab wrote: »

What would happen to the nuclear bases there?

Didnt Ian Og say they could move them to Ulster?!

05-05-2021 10:49pm

saabsaab wrote: »

So the nuclear deterrent would be under Scottish control?

They don’t want it.

TheBoyConor · 05-05-2021 10:54pm

The same way we de-anglicised the Free 26 .

saabsaab · 06-05-2021 1:37pm

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Didnt Ian Og say they could move them to Ulster?!

So under a UI we would have a nuclear strike capability?

bob mcbob · 06-05-2021 4:07pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Scotland's modern police have far more resources than the Gardai have. I suspect the reason for this is Scotland's sectarian divide. If Scotland went independent, they wouldn't have the same resources they have now. Im sure the cracks would start to appear then.

I was interested in a comparison of the Garda and police Scotland.

numbers are -

Total size of force
Garda = 14566
PS = 17241

Budget
Garda = 1.952 billion euro
PS = 1.222 billion GPB (1.4 billion euro)

So police Scotland is able to have more officers on a smaller annual budget.

L1011 · 06-05-2021 4:19pm

bob mcbob wrote: »

I was interested in a comparison of the Garda and police Scotland.

numbers are -

Total size of force
Garda = 14566
PS = 17241

Budget
Garda = 1.952 billion euro
PS = 1.222 billion GPB (1.4 billion euro)

So police Scotland is able to have more officers on a smaller annual budget.

Lower salaries in Scotland. Salaries are far and away the bulk of the Garda budget.

Constable/Garda top-out is €48.7k vs 54.5k; Sergeant 54.5 vs 60.2k and so on; plus there are still multiple allowances here that do not appear to exist in Scotland.

http://www.gra.ie/documents/PayScales.pdf

https://www.scotland.police.uk/about-us/finance/pay-and-grading-structure/

I'd also take a guess that they have less senior grades though.

06-05-2021 4:29pm

bob mcbob wrote: »

I was interested in a comparison of the Garda and police Scotland.

numbers are -

Total size of force
Garda = 14566
PS = 17241

Budget
Garda = 1.952 billion euro
PS = 1.222 billion GPB (1.4 billion euro)

So police Scotland is able to have more officers on a smaller annual budget.

Does the Garda numbers and budget also include border control?

breezy1985 · 06-05-2021 5:50pm

L1011 wrote: »

Lower salaries in Scotland. Salaries are far and away the bulk of the Garda budget.

Constable/Garda top-out is €48.7k vs 54.5k; Sergeant 54.5 vs 60.2k and so on; plus there are still multiple allowances here that do not appear to exist in Scotland.

http://www.gra.ie/documents/PayScales.pdf

https://www.scotland.police.uk/about-us/finance/pay-and-grading-structure/

I'd also take a guess that they have less senior grades though.

UK is a low pay low cost economy compared to Ireland. Pretty much all jobs pay less over there

Peregrinus · 07-05-2021 3:23am

Aegir wrote: »

Does the Garda numbers and budget also include border control?

My thought too. AGS as a national force would have roles and responsibilities that Police Scotland as a regional force wouldn't have - border control, must obviously, but also a much bigger intelligence role, and no doubt other things. Plus, of course, the UK forces have access to external specialist facilities and bodies - the National Crime Agency, the specialist units of the Met, the Police Staff College - which are off-budget for the UK forces, but the Irish equivalents would be on-budget for AGS. So direct comparisons need to be treated with a bit of caution.

bob mcbob · 07-05-2021 11:29am

Peregrinus wrote: »

My thought too. AGS as a national force would have roles and responsibilities that Police Scotland as a regional force wouldn't have - border control, must obviously, but also a much bigger intelligence role, and no doubt other things. Plus, of course, the UK forces have access to external specialist facilities and bodies - the National Crime Agency, the specialist units of the Met, the Police Staff College - which are off-budget for the UK forces, but the Irish equivalents would be on-budget for AGS. So direct comparisons need to be treated with a bit of caution.

Here are the specialist responsibilities for PS

2.4.1 Border Policing Command
2.4.2 Special Branch
2.4.3 Organised Crime and Counter Terrorism Unit
2.4.4 Major Investigation Teams
2.4.5 National Anti Corruption Unit
2.4.6 National Human Trafficking Unit
2.4.7 National Rape Taskforce
2.4.8 Prison Intelligence Unit

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_Scotland

I think the differences maybe down to how policing is done differently in the 2 countries. For example -

the number of police stations are -
Police Scotland = 214
Garda = 564

Ireland more than double which suggests smaller stations with small numbers of Garda in each.

Could an Independent Scotland turn violent?

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