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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Conditions look reasonably favorable for this to retain a good bit of it's tropical characteristics right up until near landfall time as it would be for us.

    That depends entirely on the track of course. Early days but I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC started to reference the potential impacts here within the next 2 days. Probably be in touch with Met Eireann too.

    Let's see if it stays on track over the next couple of days.

    I doubt it. I'd say that Atlantic trough will shear it too much long before it gets here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The shear really starts to take the tops off on the 2nd. Most models have impacts here by the morning/early afternoon of the 3rd.

    Seems similar to Ophelia which retained some tropical characteristics right up to landfall in spite of tapping the mid latitude trough well before that. Then again that was a sprint.

    This could be all academic though this far out!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭ Kimora Happy Cat


    What it was doing sailing right through an eyewall in this day and age is beyond me.

    https://twitter.com/UCARCPAESS/status/1177686947201998848?s=19

    Fair play to them


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Fair play to them

    Why?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    I titled this thread storm rather than hurricane. By the time Lorenzo gets to our vicinity it will be a temperate storm no longer a tropical hurricane. It may still contain hurricane force winds. Mods are entitled to rename this thread or change the nature of this thread if Met Éireann gives warnings in respect of this storm. Ophelia was classed as a storm in Ireland when we had a nationwide status red. There is a lot of uncertainty about this storm yet. The general public are still unaware of this severe storm risk. It is us weather enthusiasts that are talking about it. If I didn’t started a dedicated thread someone else would have started because various model runs were having this storm too close for comfort.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭ Kimora Happy Cat


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Why?

    Risking their lives on a rescue mission, fairly obvious why I would have thought ???????????????


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,331 ✭✭✭OneEightSeven


    Someone from Flordia posted on r/Ireland warning us about the hurricane:
    I’m not trying to concern anyone from an American who lives in Florida. Hurricanes are nothing to ignore. At this moment it looks like it could straight for you country and the rest of U.K. Florida deals with hurricanes all the time and we always get ready we’ll in advance. Just want to make sure you are all aware of the path

    Gutter tabloids, like Dublin Live, will probably visit this place, post a sensationalist article on Facebook using images grabbed from here and this thread will be swamped with idiots asking the usual stupid questions about whether the hurricane with hit Cork, Waterford, Galway and what time with I pick up my kids from school.

    I say keep the thread title as it is to draw as little attention as possible.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Man..

    GFSOPUK00_138_2.png

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Gutter tabloids, like Dublin Live, will probably visit this place, post a sensationalist article on Facebook using images grabbed from here
    It actually would be a good idea if Boards.ie had a system where images uploaded on the site would be automatically imprinted with a logo. It is pretty obvious that journalists keep tabs on this site and others such as IWO to gather information, claim it as their own and then embellish it to sell a story.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    #prayforireland

    :p

    Oh we do! Every day and many times a day! ;) Lighting candles too....( May need them if Lorenzo hits! )


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  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Well. OH MY! is the only reaction from here... OH MY! As long as my shopping etc gets in on Thursday... "Cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war!"


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    GFS came up with another track over Ireland on the 0z this morning and then the ECM 0Z rolls out with this.


    850 hPa Winds

    5jJS2QI.gif

    qdp0eux.gif


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,620 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Man...

    Calm and sunny for Achill....for a little while. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Lorenzo -- was he also in Hamlet? Must have a look at that.

    Nope, just in the Merchant of Venice.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58



    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 280236
    TCDAT3

    Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 22
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
    1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

    Lorenzo's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate this evening.
    A series of SSMI and GMI microwave overpasses revealed inner core
    erosion, particularly in the south portion. The images also showed
    a significant south to north vertical tilt of the cyclone,
    indicative of the moderate southwesterly shear undercutting the
    impressive upper-tropospheric diffluent flow. A blend of all the
    available subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, as
    well as an earlier SATCON analysis, yields an initial intensity of
    105 kt for this advisory.

    Lorenzo will remain over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures for
    the next 3 days. Nonetheless, the stiff southwesterly shear should
    inhibit strengthening, although there is a slight chance of
    short-term fluctuations in intensity caused by eyewall replacement
    cycles. Beyond the 72 hour period, Lorenzo is expected to encounter
    stronger mid-latitude westerlies, move over cooler waters, and
    undergo extratropical transition as it interacts with a baroclinic
    zone moving over the central north Atlantic. The NHC forecast is an
    update of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the HFIP
    Corrected Consensus and Florida State Superensemble intensity
    models.

    The aforementioned microwave images also indicate that Lorenzo has
    been moving a little to the left of track, and the initial motion is
    estimated to be north-northwestward, or 335/8 kt. The song remains
    the same, no change in the track forecast philosophy. Lorenzo should
    turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it
    moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge
    anchored over the eastern Atlantic. Around mid-period, Lorenzo is
    forecast to accelerate toward the northeast, in the mid-latitude
    westerly flow, in response to a deep-layer major shortwave trough
    approaching from the north-central Atlantic. The track forecast has
    been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one and is close
    to the various consensus aids.

    The wind radii have been adjusted using 2308 UTC METOP-B
    scatterometer data. The forecast wind radii, beyond the 48 hour
    period, is based primarily on the RVCN global consensus.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 28/0300Z 20.8N 44.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
    12H 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
    24H 29/0000Z 23.7N 44.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
    36H 29/1200Z 25.4N 44.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
    48H 30/0000Z 27.0N 43.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
    72H 01/0000Z 30.7N 41.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
    96H 02/0000Z 36.5N 34.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
    120H 03/0000Z 45.5N 22.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    $$
    Forecaster Roberts


    1kOqOCo.png

    2K8AobG.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    For the record GFS 0Z




    10 M mean winds ( kt)

    dpl5AQz.gif



    anim_hvb7.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Graces7 wrote: »
    Well. OH MY! is the only reaction from here... OH MY! As long as my shopping etc gets in on Thursday... "Cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war!"

    Word of well meaning caution Graces7, these charts are a long way off yet and they will throw up a lot of different solutions between now and then, so please don't be taking these charts as gospel just yet, but no better thread to keep informed & up to date all the same.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    For the record GFS 0Z
    The north midlands seems to bear the brunt on that particular run.

    New Moon



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭Zorya


    and this thread will be swamped with idiots ......

    I say keep the thread title as it is to draw as little attention as possible.

    Too late! I'm here already :) Been here since yesterday. Cannot understand the maps, but Oneirics red scribbles one has caught my attention. All the leaves still on the trees. Plus I'm in a business with all outdoor workers so this idiot will be following very closely.
    Thanks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    To die, to sleep.
    For in this sleep of death what dreams may come.

    New Moon



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Would certainly agree that this could well veer off and moderate in later runs. Nearly always show stronger winds in the earlier runs and less so nearer the event.

    But also need to watch the trends and over the last few runs Ireland is certainly featuring in it's track.

    Watching the steering factors of the HP off Portugal and the large are of LP below Greenland and the GFS charts show the Jet in the perfect position slowing the system as it makes landfall and nudging it across the country atm. +138 hrs

    7GiFtdp.png




  • Another idiot here since the thread started,I cant understand the maps but love these threads as they are always very informative and give a great heads up on all weather events.

    Now can someone tell me if it will be wet and windy in my backyard at 2.31pm next Saturday 😛


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Meanwhile the GEM corrected to such an extent that it takes a much weaker Lorenzo into the Bay of Biscay for a landfall in central France. This is a trend that might show up on other models, recall that at this time range, Dorian was shown making a landfall in Florida and continuing on into the northeast Gulf of Mexico, so errors on that scale are quite normal with tropical systems at six days.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON 0Z Veered left on its latest run.

    GEM has been consistent in showing the remnants head in to Biscay now for the last few runs.

    anim_ovt4.gif

    UKMO now coming more into the frame.


    cDr760w.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1177839883936784385?s=09

    Interesting that Met Eireann have it hitting us late next Thursday / early Friday on this animation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Latest microwave scan shows the eyewall replacement cycles has almost completed now, with a much wider eyewall now almost the whole way around the centre.

    diag20190928T050621_amsr2_85.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    It's weakened further overnight, now 100 kts. Shear is taking its toll. It will start to pass over much lower ocean heat content from now on so it's just a question of rate of weakening now.
    Lorenzo's tilt has grown this morning. AMSR2 imagery at 0505 UTC showed a 20 n mi displacement between the low- and mid-level centers of the hurricane, a consequence of persistent westerly wind shear. Satellite-based intensity estimates vary greatly, from 77 to 110 kt, so the intensity is set to 100 kt as a compromise of all available data. Despite the decrease in Lorenzo's maximum winds during the past 24 hours, earlier ASCAT-C data showed that its hurricane-force wind field has expanded, and now reaches up to 45 n mi to the northeast of the center. The lower initial intensity resulted in a slightly lower intensity forecast through most of the period. The wind shear affecting the cyclone is forecast to continue, and a slow decrease in Lorenzo's peak winds is still expected during the next several days. The official intensity forecast is very near the intensity consensus. Despite the expected decrease in intensity, the hurricane is not forecast to decrease in size, and in fact Lorenzo's hurricane-force wind field could increase further by next week. Because of that, users are urged to not focus on the exact intensity of Lorenzo since the cyclone will likely remain a powerful storm well into next week. By 120 h, all of the global models indicate that Lorenzo will become post-tropical, and so does the NHC forecast. The aforementioned microwave data was very helpful in identifying Lorenzo's center location.

    2019AL13_OHCNFCST_201909280600.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    I know it’s a long way off Gaoth, but you said it’s weakening - will it strengthen again?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    leahyl wrote: »
    I know it’s a long way off Gaoth, but you said it’s weakening - will it strengthen again?

    It's unlikely. All the reliable models show steady weakening to below hurricane strength within about 120 hours.

    aal13_2019092806_intensity_early.png

    The latest microwave scan now shows that eyewall completely open to the west so it could start to weaken at a faster rate now. We'll see.

    diag20190928T080328_ssmis18_85.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Risking their lives on a rescue mission, fairly obvious why I would have thought ???????????????

    Apologies, was tired and read it completely arseways.


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