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Hurricane Dorian

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12467…14

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    #92
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    The latest gfs run on netweather.tv has the remnants of this hurricane coming our direction by Tuesday the 10th.

    +312hrs though, might as well hang a fish on your washing line as a method of forecasting.

    gfs-14-312.png?18


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    #93
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,443 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Yup CAT 5....Mission 26 just recorded 153 kts (176 mph) surface level wind speed in the north west eye wall.


    recon_NOAA2-2605A-DORIAN.png

    recon_NOAA2-2605A-DORIAN_timeseries.png


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    #94
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,443 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    EDV8cDkVAAASgB0?format=jpg&name=medium

    They can add 176 mph now.


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    #95
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,443 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Latest NHC update maintains Dorian at a CAT 4 hurricane. Surprised at that. The data indicates it's well in to CAT 5 territory. They must be sceptical about the flight level winds.


    CAT 5

    tumblr_mipgomcFyI1s2gg27o1_400.gif


    7d806d063a2a8e2e698e6b167bf9f5be.gif


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    #96
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Latest NHC update maintains Dorian at a CAT 4 hurricane. Surprised at that. The data indicates it's well in to CAT 5 territory. They must be sceptical about the flight level winds.


    CAT 5

    From their latest Discussion:
    Data from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian remains a very powerful hurricane, and the satellite presentation is still quite impressive with a very stable, well-defined eye. There has been no evidence of concentric eyewalls in aircraft or microwave data, which is somewhat surprising given that the intensity has been at category 4 strength for 24 hours. Both aircraft measured peak flight-level winds that support an initial intensity of 130 kt. There have been some higher surface wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind reductions.

    Very strange indeed, as the SFMR method has been shown to be most accurate up at CAT 5 level. Still, they're the experts.


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  • Options
    #97
    Comhrá
    Registered Users Posts: 4,754 ✭✭✭Comhrá


    Interesting update from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/



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    #98
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    NHC's latest analysis:

    f2dec840fbd63bb74d5af9a267a656e6.gif

    New Moon



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    #99
    OneEightSeven
    Registered Users Posts: 1,333 ✭✭✭OneEightSeven




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    #100
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Some private weather stations on Abaco are now starting to see pressure dropping and winds increasing, gusting to near 50 mph. Updated every few seconds here

    https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IABACOEL1

    Zoom out on the map to see the other nearby stations


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    #101
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Apart from one or two outliers, pretty much a cross model consensus now (06z runs) regarding general direction of travel. I wouldn't dismiss any outliers totally though, as the current forecast path was itself considered to be the least likely option only a few days ago.

    SmQ20DL.png

    New Moon



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    #102
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,817 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Very cold cloud tops at about -65 to -70C above ocean water temps of 29 to 30C


    0JYDYoG.gif

    wYIgUfh.gif


    m3P8lRY.gif


    U0OyE4X.jpg

    0akwpmI.gif


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    #103
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Latest recon has it down to 926mb with winds up to 155knots sfmr, could be just a gust however.
    Looks to have significantly strengthened overnight. Very worrying for the Bahamas

    22121526-C6-FE-4946-B021-BC1-E63-C8-FD20.jpg


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    #104
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Phenomenal numbers coming out. That central pressure at 11:33 was 925.4 hPa (red), with a "reliable" SFMR surface wind of 156 kts (magenta) in the NE eyewall at 11:35. The corresponding flight level wind was 150 knots, which is what the NHC seem to be basing their intensity on and disregarding the SFMR. I haven't seen them do this before. Usually the opposite; they have tended to go higher than the SFMR winds, allowing for undersampling.
    113100 2624N 07623W 6967 02526 9320 +144 +020 319031 062 074 013 03
    113130 2625N 07621W 6970 02502 9306 +136 +020 314014 021 041 001 00
    113200 2626N 07620W 6964 02495 9286 +142 +022 310003 012 037 000 00
    113230 2628N 07618W 6965 02487 9279 +142 +024 119006 011 036 000 00
    113300 2629N 07617W 6976 02467 9254 +162 +028 121026 039 042 001 00
    113330 2629N 07617W 6976 02467 9259 +170 +032 126059 078 050 002 03
    113400 2632N 07615W 6961 02541 9327 +148 +038 129104 116 150 000 03
    113430 2632N 07613W 6949 02631 9442 +104 +044 131139 148 158 007 03
    113500 2632N 07613W 6949 02631 9527 +094 +049 130146 150 156 036 00
    113530 2634N 07612W 6963 02755 9616 +086 +051 130142 145 144 040 03
    113600 2635N 07611W 6974 02804 9681 +081 +051 129135 140 129 031 00
    113630 2636N 07610W 6953 02877 9741 +083 +047 131125 130 115 023 00
    113700 2637N 07608W 6986 02879 9795 +077 +043 133117 123 103 017 00
    113730 2638N 07607W 6966 02939 9820 +087 +038 134109 114 092 009 00


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    #105
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Quick Question. Given the now severe strength of the storm, is it possible that it could do its own thing and veer off from the models?


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    #106
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Now officially Cat 5, 160 mph.

    SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
    LOCATION...26.5N 76.5W
    ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
    ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES


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    #107
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,437 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Upgraded to a category 5 hurricane. The Bahamas are going to ratlled.


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    #108
    SteHam
    Registered Users Posts: 59 ✭✭SteHam


    Is there a potential that this may head our direction afterwards?


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    #109
    Comhrá
    Registered Users Posts: 4,754 ✭✭✭Comhrá


    Is there a potential that this may head our direction afterwards?


    It could but by then it won't be anything other than a North Atlantic depression.

    Hurricanes don't maintain their strength without warm tropical waters to sustain them.


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    #110
    InTheShadows
    Closed Accounts Posts: 727 ✭✭✭InTheShadows


    Wow that's not good. Bahamas are going to be destroyed


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    #111
    Scrabbel
    Registered Users Posts: 305 ✭✭Scrabbel


    Anyone found a reliable Bahamian live video stream yet (other than the one with the Florida news conference inset)? Have tried lots of links but none working.


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  • Options
    #112
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Latest radar

    489652.PNG


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    #113
    RobAMerc
    Registered Users Posts: 5,862 ✭✭✭RobAMerc


    Is it landed in Bahamas yet ? I cannot figure out if they are really in the thick of it yet.


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    #114
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    ECMWF 6z predicted wind-field.

    Gzyvmbe.gif

    Stalls over or just to the west of Freeport before moving away north. Beautiful, calm conditions there at the moment but won't be long changing.

    New Moon



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    #115
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Job well done, lads. Dropped 36 dropsondes into the environment around the storm this morning to give crucial data to the 12Z models.

    recon_NOAA9-2705A-DORIAN_dropsondes.png


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    #116
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    RobAMerc wrote: »
    Is it landed in Bahamas yet ? I cannot figure out if they are really in the thick of it yet.

    CNN are live in Freeport,its a gorgeous day there currently with only a slight breeze
    They are expecting conditions to go rapidly downhill in the next few hours and said the first effects are being felt about 80 miles east of Freeport at the moment


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    #117
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    NHC increased winds to 175mph


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    #118
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,443 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Eastern Florida still well in play here by the looks of it.


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    #119
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,437 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    pad199207 wrote: »
    NHC increased winds to 175mph

    175 mph ? Jesus. I don't know how populated that place on the map called marsh harbour is but hopefully there aren't many people left.


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    #120
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Worth noting that Freeport to the Florida coast is not much more of a distance than Dublin to Holyhead.

    Even if the storm turns, east Florida is gonna have it rough for a time. Fine margins.


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    #121
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Forecast rainfall totals up to 12z Tues. Up to 950mm, or 37 inches in old money. Hard to discern where exactly the highest totals will be given the too blended colour legend, but extraordinary nonetheless.

    psia62j.png

    New Moon



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