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Recession predictions

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,818 ✭✭✭daheff


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    I ll say plenty about it then, tax avoidance is immoral and dangerous, not only are we losing out on much needed revenue, we re facilitating these activities, and preventing other countries from obtaining much needed revenue also, sovereign wealth funds could be used to rectify this. Job creation alone will not solve these issues, large corporations need to start paying more tax.
    or pay higher salaries & everybody wins


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    I'm not convinced the next recession will be catastrophic as some predict, of course I could be very wrong, but thankfully there's currently a revolution occuring in monetary understanding, sparked from 2008, it's an exciting time

    Might not be as bad but I think it'll certainly be longer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,703 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    daheff wrote:
    or pay higher salaries & everybody wins

    Maybe, but with the current process of wage inflation suppression, what is the chances of that occuring?
    Pussyhands wrote:
    Might not be as bad but I think it'll certainly be longer.

    I do think we could be heading into a period of global stagnation, we have to start dealing with issues such as debt accumulation


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,277 ✭✭✭Deub


    Markets peaked again at the end of April after the Q4 drop but the trend didn't continue.
    The "we are very close to an agreement" US-China deal is not looking so close anymore. It is even turning a bit nasty (huawei, rare earth...).
    Germany published the unemployment numbers today. Last month it was a decrease of 12K people, the concensus was -8K for this month, it was an increase of 60K instead. The first unemployment rate increase in the last 5 years for Germany and the biggest increase in a decade.
    Let's see what is next.


  • Registered Users Posts: 976 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    So we now have low growth low interest rates and some form of qe still I think? I don't think anyone has a clue where we are going


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    What recession signs have ye noticed lately?

    I have seen quite a few already. I see several funds are ditching equity and property now.
    I also notice the number of job postings in Ireland are going down rapidly - especially in IT and Pharma.

    The game is definitely afoot.


  • Registered Users Posts: 557 ✭✭✭Waestrel


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7up38Jyv0w&list=PLRgTUN1zz_ofJoMx1rB6Z0EA1OwAGDRdR

    This is a good watch - given what it says is true, a recession (or collapse) seems inevitable

    Cant time it though, but its close. I feel it in my waters


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭Voltex


    We're in the very late phases of this business cycle, so a slow down or small contraction is due. I really don't think we're heading for a recession of any great magnitude..especially in Ireland, as we're still severely scarred from the financial crisis and have kept our house pretty well in order.

    Not withstanding the current 3 month/10 year T-Bill yield inversion, the flight to fixed income is a big red flag (at least for me). I also noted a lot of investment banks cited tougher trading conditions in the latest 1/4 results.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭Geuze




  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    I am seeing loads of signs of recession.
    Especially in the jobs market but also in the housing sector. House prices have peaked and are starting to drop slightly.
    Yet nobody seems to be talking about it. Does anyone have retail figures for May/June?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭ Landon Famous Bakery


    House prices peaking isn't a sign of a recession, it's a sign of central bank rules kicking in.

    That said I agree an economic slowdown is in the way, more so because we are now cyclically due one, plus Brexit ) trade wars.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭GooglePlus


    A no deal Brexit could tear the arse out of this economy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,182 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Forgotten I had posted in this - dunno why I unfollowed

    This article, reminded me so much of the last one where economists were told to shut up and stop talking us into a crash (which ultimately quickly followed)

    At the time of the recent crash and for a few years before I had said to friends the building projects in the country were crazy (house building for a population that didn't exist/couldn't afford it) and only needed even a minor blip in the economy for it to all come crashing down. Was told at the time (by people who would be kinda working in the areas) that not a chance it would happen in Ireland, the country was as secure as it ever could be. As it was it was a major global crash

    As others have said the housing market is not likely going to be the reason this time but country/corporate debt.
    This time it is more likely to be a EU issue - Germany, Italy etc. Brexit may be the trigger that starts it. How badly it may screw Ireland is not really known but everyone knows it will be major
    Deutsche Bank is screwed but will never be allowed to fail by Germany - how much of their money is in Ireland?
    Lotta things happening at the moment


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,277 ✭✭✭Deub


    The outlook doesn't look good and finance people know it. It is the reason everyone is expected the FED to decreasei nterest rate at the end of month even though indexes are at ath. Even Powell confirmed they may take actions to keep the growth.
    Companies will release their Q2 earnings and I am curious to see the impact of trade wars and particularly on Apple results.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,182 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,277 ✭✭✭Deub


    It doesn't smell good right now:

    - US Indexes went ATH and are now going down
    - FED decreased the interest rate for the first time since 2008

    A little unexpected spark and we could see some correction on the markets.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭ Landon Famous Bakery


    The USA will be in recession by January 1st. (IMO)

    Fed (as above)
    Trump
    Tariffs


    Pretty sure the first rate cut in a bull run has lead to a recession in the US every single time in history, most starting within a year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,277 ✭✭✭Deub


    The USA will be in recession by January 1st. (IMO)

    Fed (as above)
    Trump
    Tariffs


    Pretty sure the first rate cut in a bull run has lead to a recession in the US every single time in history, most starting within a year.

    Here is the graph with recessions (shaded area) and the FED rate:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭ Landon Famous Bakery


    Deub wrote: »
    Here is the graph with recessions (shaded area) and the FED rate:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

    Interesting, almost like clock work.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,277 ✭✭✭Deub


    Came across this tweet :

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1157598311374888960

    I don't agree with everything he says but some charts are interesting.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,815 ✭✭✭lisasimpson


    Deub wrote: »
    It doesn't smell good right now:

    - US Indexes went ATH and are now going down
    - FED decreased the interest rate for the first time since 2008

    A little unexpected spark and we could see some correction on the markets.

    Listening to the business news on the radio its definitely on the way. The slow dow in German economic growth has started to impact their unemployment figures. Glanbia plans for the performance nutrition side of the hit a road block many countries even non EU they were targeting with these products where demand hasn't developed as hoped. Numerous investment banks taking a look at their core business strategies


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,991 ✭✭✭Mongfinder General


    Timing of the U.K. election will be crucial. If Johnson is dethroned then it will most probably mean a brexit with a deal. If he remains prime minister then it's the hardest of hard brexits. Some of the exports to the U.K. will become domestic produce. For example, exports of dairy gold may crash but so will imports of utterly butterly. The cost and market size of each product may be different but essentially they meet the same purpose. It will take months to rationalize supply chains but vendors will get in tandem with demand. A simplistic example, I know, but in practical terms it may be representative of other markets.

    The net effects may not be as bad as we fear. At the moment we are struggling to fill job vacancies. In an open market economy a certain level of unemployment is needed in order for businesses to function. The loss of 50-100000 would not be welcome but it will not be devastating. Structural unemployment may be issue but it always is.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭ Landon Famous Bakery




  • Registered Users Posts: 28,703 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    A matter of time.


    Banks just can't help themselves, jesus will we ever get a handle on them


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭Voltex


    May as well get this thread bumped with today's recession red flag - US10 year/2 year bond inversion. All US indices loosing their s hit!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,815 ✭✭✭lisasimpson


    And the German economy is only 1 quarter from being in an official recession going on figures out today


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,368 Mod ✭✭✭✭andrew


    I''m not sure how zealous the FT is when it comes to paywalls (so if the answer is 'very' let me know), but there's a good article about yield inversion here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,372 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Shouldn't the NTMA be cashing in about now refinancing some of our debt?

    Interest rates or yields for the government are below 0 right now out to beyond 10 years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭Tea drinker


    Shouldn't the NTMA be cashing in about now refinancing some of our debt?

    Interest rates or yields for the government are below 0 right now out to beyond 10 years.
    Well arguably we should have been paying down the debt before now, but we are about 5 years out of recession and no progress made.
    We are overspending to build a national hospital inside a hospital, in the wrong place.
    Spending 3 billion on broadband that Eir claim they can do for 1 billion.

    I don't have a lot of faith in this government decisions, at least until the economic situation forces them to change direction.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Shouldn't the NTMA be cashing in about now refinancing some of our debt?

    Interest rates or yields for the government are below 0 right now out to beyond 10 years.


    The NTMA do re-finance debt, it has been happening all year.


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