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14-02-2020, 18:25   #91
kenmc
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Supposed to be going to RDS to Leinster match. Not looking forward to it if the forecast is anything to go by...
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14-02-2020, 18:51   #92
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https://twitter.com/aliciambentley/s...992537094?s=21
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14-02-2020, 19:05   #93
aisling86
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It's not often the hurricane hunters base themselves out of shannon!
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14-02-2020, 19:35   #94
Reckless Abandonment
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It's not often the hurricane hunters base themselves out of shannon!
Is Kermit with them.. that frog gets around
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14-02-2020, 19:51   #95
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Anyone want to hazard a guess as to the warning levels expected for Sunday? Orange for west, and yellow elsewhere? Or if not the warning level, how severe are the gusts expected to be.
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14-02-2020, 20:00   #96
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Try several sites and take the average figure for your location (e.g. try windy.com, put in your location and check the different models shown along the bottom to get a rough idea). I'm guessing Orange for most Western coastal counties, Yellow inland. Might get very gusty like last weekend in any convective showers.
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14-02-2020, 20:39   #97
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ECM showing Southern counties exceeding yellow warning level tomorrow for a time, showing gusting 110- 120 km/h during the frontal passage.

Is the ECM overdoing the wind speeds, seems to be off kilter for awhile, unusual to see it showing the strongest winds, the odd one out atm.

ICON showing some gusts for a time of 110 to 120km/h , again in S and SE counties but tends to slightly over do it.

ECM and ICON just seem to be too high compared to the Hi Res models.

AROME just up to around 90 km/h at tops overland, bit more perhaps on the coasts but nothing severe.

WRF similar to the ARPEGE keeping strongest winds gusting up to about 100 km/h around the coasts and gusting up to 90 km/h overland with a few pockets inland of up 100 km/h in the W and NW.

So on balance would be inclined at this stage to stick with ARPEGE / WRF








Sunday ECM and ARPEGE is showing it a bit less windy than previous runs. Looks like gusting 100 to 110 on coasts from Kerry to Clare and 110 to 120 km/h from Galway to Donegal and gusts penetrating further inland in the W and NW. Generally looks like gusting 80 to 100 km/h overland. Maybe touching Orange warning in the W.

Might get up around 90 - 100 km/h along S coastal fringes.

For the E looks like gusting 80 to 90 km/h

All just my opinion , and trying to refine my very armature skill of forecasting !





Last edited by Meteorite58; 14-02-2020 at 20:44.
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14-02-2020, 21:03   #98
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Thunderstorm possibility running up along the SW, W coasts tomorrow, lot of shear available, might get a few inland . Sunday a lot of potential around our coasts with cold air aloft and reasonable shear.
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14-02-2020, 21:06   #99
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Also a mention of embedded thunderstorms from Met Eireann

Turning wet and very windy on Saturday with some severe gusts. Outbreaks of heavy rain will extend nationwide during the morning accompanied by gale force southerly winds. The rain will be squally at times with a risk of embedded thunderstorms. Localised flooding is expected with some coastal overtopping along the Atlantic seaboard. Highest temperatures of 9 to 12 degrees.
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14-02-2020, 21:29   #100
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Knock airport TAF forecasting gusts up to 55 knots tomorrow between midday and 3pm in moderate rain. Miserable Saturday ahead

TEMPO 1512/1515 22025G55KT 1200 RA BKN004 OVC008
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14-02-2020, 21:59   #101
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Originally Posted by aisling86 View Post
It's not often the hurricane hunters base themselves out of shannon!
She did a test flight on Wednesday and did a number of laps around Waterford at 9000ft. Very cool to see and hear it in the flesh. A very rare bird on this side of the Atlantic.
I would imagine they will make a trip into Storm Dennis in the next few days.
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14-02-2020, 22:10   #102
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Guys, thanks for all the explanations on the speed of sound etc. I loved the travelator analogy!
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14-02-2020, 22:17   #103
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NOAA42(Hurricane Hunters) are regular visitors to Shannon.The aircraft is N42RF which was built in 1975 .This year is the 4th in a row they are based at Shannon from the end of January for 3 or 4 weeks.
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14-02-2020, 22:44   #104
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The Harmonie has Dennis getting down to "only" 920 hPa and stays at that for 3 hours (18Z-21Z) tomorrow evening. I think this talk of 915 or lower is a little sensationalist, but it remains to be seen how low it gets. Closer to home it will be another windy weekend but nothing more than we've had so far (except possibly for the far north Sunday night, when we may see Malin Head steal the show).

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14-02-2020, 23:52   #105
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ARPEGE 18Z showing stronger winds for Sunday on this run ( a lot stronger in fact ). Looks like going to Orange warning territory for counties from Kerry to around Mayo or Sligo perhaps , for a few hours anyway and then returning to yellow . Looks increasingly windy across the country also, high end yellow , wouldn't take too much more to make it Orange for a few counties across the center of the country.







ICON up on the latest run also





WRF stronger looking along Western counties for a time tomorrow but a way lower for Sunday, think this is an outlier for Sunday.


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