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06-02-2020, 18:24   #46
giveitholly
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The frog has spoken!!!!
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06-02-2020, 18:46   #47
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The frog has spoken!!!!
THEN THERE WILL BE SNOW!

Was just on the phone to family in Canada; in BC they have about 4 inches and it has drifted so they cannot get out.

Those in Newfoundland who were just getting back to normal after being dug out of roof high snow by the army? Another snowstorm due followed by hard freezing... They are rushing round like headless chickens getting organised...
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06-02-2020, 18:48   #48
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The (snow) (super)moon will peak at about 7.30am GMT on Sunday, February 9.
If you live on the coast, and if the moon looks big, and the tides look high, bring in yer clothes from the washer line.
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06-02-2020, 18:52   #49
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Sunday Moonrise for {West Coast}: 17:47
High Tides: 5am & 5.30pm (+5.30m), 'surfs up!
E&OE.
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06-02-2020, 18:58   #50
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Just managed to get the shopping delivery in before dark and it is so lovely out you would not think what is to happen. Moon riding high and shining on the flat ocean... Almost flat calm... But the delivery rushed forward because they know the storm ahead...
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06-02-2020, 19:44   #51
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Just looking at mean hourly wind speeds here for Belmullet and since 1990 (as far as Met Eireann's data goes back), we haven't seen a 6 hour mean speed 48 knots (storm 10) or more since December 1998.

Highest 6 hour mean speeds in for this station since 1990:
26th December 1998: 52.3 knots (S10)
5th January 1991: 48.8 knots (S10)
9th December 1993: 45 knots (G9)

We are lucky to even see even gust speeds of this calibre in the present climate.

--- Met Eireann.
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06-02-2020, 20:17   #52
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next week seems to be trending slightly colder with every run. Storm Ciara is mostly about the wind, but is a rather long event and is bringing with it some proper cold air too. I've watched the temperatures at 850hpa get as far as -5 over the past few days, but now they are heading towards the -10C range, which is impressive for cold zonal Atlantic weather. This isn't too far from a northerly/easterly in terms of upper air temperatures.

Monday see's the uppers dropping like a stone. On Sunday night, early hours of Monday morning we see cold uppers moving in.



Rush hour/Monday morning see's the uppers dropping to -5 or -6C across the country. We haven't seen these for quite for time.



By Monday evening, uppers of -7C widely across the country. By this stage most precipitation would be sleet, hail, graupal or snow.



Tuesday morning see's the -9C uppers in parts of the midlands and Leinster. Hopefully there will be moisture overhead as anything that falls would most likely be of snow.



The very cold uppers last till Wednesday morning


Wednesday see's the uppers becoming milder as the day goes on, back to -1 or -2C uppers, we would be looking at cold rain or sleet by this stage, but this return to mild is very short lived.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning see's the uppers dropping fast once again, and -7 or -8C across the country.



Friday brings back the mild with uppers heading back quickly into positive values. So potentially 3 to 4 days of wintry weather next week. Impressive stuff in terms of cold uppers from a westerly. No doubt high ground in the west and northwest in particular could see a plastering next week.
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06-02-2020, 20:19   #53
 
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
A thread is coming about storm Ciara. Check back in a few minutes and I will have this introductory post somewhat more filled out with an overview of what looks like being a long-duration and complex event. I have posted a LEVEL 1 tag for the storm now because I am about 99.9% certain it will get at least that and most likely a LEVEL 2 designation eventually.

There will be three phases to this storm.

A rather brief but intense period of strong winds seems likely by late Saturday as a leading wave hits the west coast. Winds may peak at about 70 to 120 km/hr during this phase with a brief interval of heavy rain possible.

The "main event" will arrive on Sunday as the depression actually tagged as storm "Ciara" moves east to the north of Ulster towards northwest Scotland. This will involve a fairly long-duration blast of strong winds from the west, but perhaps a more severe impact in terms of elevated sea states leading to battering waves and coastal inundations (as usual Galway Bay in the firing line for this but generally all parts of the west and possibly south coasts). I could imagine this phase being mainly 70 to 110 km/hr winds with some intervals as strong as 90 to 130 km/hr locally, but it's more about the long duration than the peak gusts with Ciara.

A third phase will be falling temperatures and continued strong winds with a trailing wave likely to pass to our north on Monday, allowing the squally showers already in progress to become increasingly wintry through the day on Monday. This may actually continue for much of Tuesday with some chance for heavy snowfall accumulations on some higher terrain in Connacht and west Ulster and on hills elsewhere too. Once again this phase may involve mainly 70 to 110 km/hr speeds but could ramp up towards Monday evening to 80 to 130 km/hr.

I may expand this post but feel free to "have at it" and I will rely on moderators to change the tag (LEVEL "x") in sync with the Met service who have an excellent commentary available in their forecast section. There is such widespread model consensus that I think the discussion will be mainly about details and inevitably the red/orange debate will probably arise, I would say even at this early stage, red might verify in terms of coastal impacts not so much from the intensity of the winds as the long duration combined with the coastal flooding factor. But for now we'll be conservative and start off with a LEVEL ONE tag so that Boards readers know something bad cometh this way.

Note: There may be a yellow (LEVEL ONE) warning associated with a weaker system timed to move through on Friday afternoon and evening. This will be separate from the above complex storm event and may briefly get its own little discussion thread, but if not, just in general be aware that Friday's outcome will be independent of the evolution of storm Ciara and if it fizzles or gets stronger, not likely to be a "trend" in terms of how Ciara might perform.

I have added in some wind speed thoughts to my first posting above, otherwise this will have to do to get us started, Meteorite and some others are the pros at posting graphics so rather than having me fumbling around with that, I imagine they will go for the jugular as soon as some good solid guidance becomes available.
Will you go wan now and get out of the park ---

Summary - a bit of wind, rain, and a few isolated snowflakes in those far hills.

I'm absolutely sick of seeing these warnings - they mean nothing, and I pay not attention to them.
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06-02-2020, 20:26   #54
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Will you go wan now and get out of the park ---

Summary - a bit of wind, rain, and a few isolated snowflakes in those far hills.

I'm absolutely sick of seeing these warnings - they mean nothing, and I pay not attention to them.

And so it begins........
The whinging......
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06-02-2020, 20:27   #55
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Will you go wan now and get out of the park ---

Summary - a bit of wind, rain, and a few isolated snowflakes in those far hills.

I'm absolutely sick of seeing these warnings - they mean nothing, and I pay not attention to them.
I think MT's previous posts, speak for themselves in their accuracy.
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06-02-2020, 20:28   #56
 
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I think MT's previous posts, speak for themselves in their accuracy.
It is NOT going to happen. It is always a big build up, and then never comes.

People need to know this, which is why I felt compelled to intervene in such matters.
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06-02-2020, 20:33   #57
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Please don't feed the trolls
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06-02-2020, 20:34   #58
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Will you go wan now and get out of the park ---

Summary - a bit of wind, rain, and a few isolated snowflakes in those far hills.

I'm absolutely sick of seeing these warnings - they mean nothing, and I pay not attention to them.
Ah but alas, attention indeed you have paid. And the Godfather in the process dissed. Shall not forget your name will we, Asitis2019.
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06-02-2020, 20:36   #59
 
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Here is the official forecast for ME today

The early days of next week are likely to remain very unsettled, with generally strong winds, and potentially stormy conditions at times along with high seas. There will be spells of heavy rain interspaced with cold showery conditions, some of the showers turning wintry at times and some possibly with hail and thunder. Temperatures are likely to remain below average early next week with some overnight frosts expected also.

So, in summary:
- A bit of wind
- A bit of rain
- A bit of sleet on high ground

Normal February conditions. The ones that are trolling are the ones spouting this nonsense.
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06-02-2020, 20:37   #60
Meteorite58
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It is NOT going to happen. It is always a big build up, and then never comes.

People need to know this, which is why I felt compelled to intervene in such matters.
Mod Note: you have made your point loud and clear .

Quote:
I'm absolutely sick of seeing these warnings - they mean nothing, and I pay not attention to them.
If you disagree so much don't bother posting in this thread again.
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