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06-02-2020, 08:43   #1
M.T. Cranium
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Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

A thread is coming about storm Ciara. Check back in a few minutes and I will have this introductory post somewhat more filled out with an overview of what looks like being a long-duration and complex event. I have posted a LEVEL 1 tag for the storm now because I am about 99.9% certain it will get at least that and most likely a LEVEL 2 designation eventually.

There will be three phases to this storm.

A rather brief but intense period of strong winds seems likely by late Saturday as a leading wave hits the west coast. Winds may peak at about 70 to 120 km/hr during this phase with a brief interval of heavy rain possible.

The "main event" will arrive on Sunday as the depression actually tagged as storm "Ciara" moves east to the north of Ulster towards northwest Scotland. This will involve a fairly long-duration blast of strong winds from the west, but perhaps a more severe impact in terms of elevated sea states leading to battering waves and coastal inundations (as usual Galway Bay in the firing line for this but generally all parts of the west and possibly south coasts). I could imagine this phase being mainly 70 to 110 km/hr winds with some intervals as strong as 90 to 130 km/hr locally, but it's more about the long duration than the peak gusts with Ciara.

A third phase will be falling temperatures and continued strong winds with a trailing wave likely to pass to our north on Monday, allowing the squally showers already in progress to become increasingly wintry through the day on Monday. This may actually continue for much of Tuesday with some chance for heavy snowfall accumulations on some higher terrain in Connacht and west Ulster and on hills elsewhere too. Once again this phase may involve mainly 70 to 110 km/hr speeds but could ramp up towards Monday evening to 80 to 130 km/hr.

I may expand this post but feel free to "have at it" and I will rely on moderators to change the tag (LEVEL "x") in sync with the Met service who have an excellent commentary available in their forecast section. There is such widespread model consensus that I think the discussion will be mainly about details and inevitably the red/orange debate will probably arise, I would say even at this early stage, red might verify in terms of coastal impacts not so much from the intensity of the winds as the long duration combined with the coastal flooding factor. But for now we'll be conservative and start off with a LEVEL ONE tag so that Boards readers know something bad cometh this way.

Note: There may be a yellow (LEVEL ONE) warning associated with a weaker system timed to move through on Friday afternoon and evening. This will be separate from the above complex storm event and may briefly get its own little discussion thread, but if not, just in general be aware that Friday's outcome will be independent of the evolution of storm Ciara and if it fizzles or gets stronger, not likely to be a "trend" in terms of how Ciara might perform.

I have added in some wind speed thoughts to my first posting above, otherwise this will have to do to get us started, Meteorite and some others are the pros at posting graphics so rather than having me fumbling around with that, I imagine they will go for the jugular as soon as some good solid guidance becomes available.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 06-02-2020 at 09:02.
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06-02-2020, 08:46   #2
Masala
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Well done,,,, very helpful.

Where is it rated versus our earlier Storms..?.. worse or better. ?.

Will it hit Cork,Kerry and Limerick bad?.
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06-02-2020, 08:47   #3
denartha
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I thought it was storm Ciara?
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06-02-2020, 09:01   #4
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I thought it was storm Ciara?
It is !
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06-02-2020, 09:04   #5
M.T. Cranium
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Originally Posted by denartha View Post
I thought it was storm Ciara?
Okay, fixed that, you can tell I don't listen to the radio or watch TV in Ireland (would in fairness take quite a set-up here to do that) and at the type size I have on my screen, the letters looked the same to me. It even took me a while to figure out why you were asking the question.

Maybe Clare should be particularly concerned though.
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06-02-2020, 09:08   #6
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Would it be fair to say that prolonged wind like this could lead to more potential tree falls?
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06-02-2020, 09:09   #7
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Will be interesting to see if it effects voter numbers.
What will it be like at 530 as I drive to a polling station on the Kerry coast?*



* Getting in early
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06-02-2020, 09:11   #8
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Will be interesting to see if it effects voter numbers.
What will it be like at 530 as I drive to a polling station on the Kerry coast?*



* Getting in early
Can’t Kerry voters vote in their local pub so they don’t have to drink and drive to the booth?

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06-02-2020, 09:12   #9
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Time for people to go park up in the famous (infamous?) Salthill carpark I guess.
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06-02-2020, 09:14   #10
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Okay, fixed that, you can tell I don't listen to the radio or watch TV in Ireland (would in fairness take quite a set-up here to do that) and at the type size I have on my screen, the letters looked the same to me. It even took me a while to figure out why you were asking the question.

Maybe Clare should be particularly concerned though.
Thanks for worrying about us MT

There used to be a pub in Ennis called M.T. Pockets so nice to see a connection is still being held
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06-02-2020, 09:27   #11
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The windchill on Monday and Tuesday is going to be a shock to many people!
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06-02-2020, 09:29   #12
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Thanks for worrying about us MT

There used to be a pub in Ennis called M.T. Pockets so nice to see a connection is still being held
Not forgetting Henry J's lol and Lucases..

O'Looneys in Lahinch is going to get hammered on Sunday id say, im going wave watching.
Myself and my son will drive from Black head as far as Castle Point in Kilkee hopefully.

It all depends on Black head though as I've seen the waves actually surge so high it goes over the headland and a huge spray or splash covers cars.
You've to time the set of waves and then drive through, there's usually a set of 5 to 7 then it drops off for maybe 10 minutes then whomph again.

The biggest waves will be around Doolin and the cliffs, further down then it could be worth checking out the slabs near Doonbeg.
A wave they call Rileys it's some show, its a big long stretch of flat rock and the waves break over it, coming up from deep water over the shelf.

But I advise caution, go wave watching at your own risk and knowing a bit about water craft is always an advantage but nobody can predict the mood of the ocean.

There's always a rogue wave which doubles the sizes of the average one.
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06-02-2020, 10:12   #13
Graces7
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Would it be fair to say that prolonged wind like this could lead to more potential tree falls?
You still HAVE trees?
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06-02-2020, 10:14   #14
Graces7
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Not forgetting Henry J's lol and Lucases..

O'Looneys in Lahinch is going to get hammered on Sunday id say, im going wave watching.
Myself and my son will drive from Black head as far as Castle Point in Kilkee hopefully.

It all depends on Black head though as I've seen the waves actually surge so high it goes over the headland and a huge spray or splash covers cars.
You've to time the set of waves and then drive through, there's usually a set of 5 to 7 then it drops off for maybe 10 minutes then whomph again.

The biggest waves will be around Doolin and the cliffs, further down then it could be worth checking out the slabs near Doonbeg.
A wave they call Rileys it's some show, its a big long stretch of flat rock and the waves break over it, coming up from deep water over the shelf.

But I advise caution, go wave watching at your own risk and knowing a bit about water craft is always an advantage but nobody can predict the mood of the ocean.

There's always a rogue wave which doubles the sizes of the average one.
I well remember the 7th wave from childhood beachwalking in Cornwall. Taught us deep respect that is still with me
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06-02-2020, 10:25   #15
pauldry
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Great post MT. I was actually wondering was there a way of sticking a one post forecast like the one you did above and just editing it as changes happen day to day so it's just a one post thread.

Then for all the fun and games from our good selves open a separate thread for "will this affect my journey to knock?" "Will I be able to vote?" "Another completely overhyped storm" posts...as well as charts of course
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