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04-02-2020, 07:36   #5521
M.T. Cranium
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Tuesday, 4 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal, however, most of that will occur on Sunday-Monday towards end of the interval.
-- Sunshine will be slightly above average too.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy and cold but with ample sunshine in many places, a few lines of wintry showers could develop from Donegal Bay inland on northwest winds of 50 to 80 km/hr, and leave a coating of snow on some hills in Connacht and west Ulster. Many places in the east and south will likely stay dry. At most, other places will see brief hail or sleet showers with a quick return to brighter conditions. Highs about 7 degrees but it may feel closer to freezing due to the winds, which will begin to moderate in the afternoon.

TONIGHT will bring on some localized frost under clear skies with a few remnant clouds in the north. Lows -4 to +2 C, the milder readings closer to the west and north coasts.

WEDNESDAY will see an increase in higher cloud layers but it will remain fairly bright even if overcast, and rather chilly as light winds will not mix down much of the warmer air that will be moving in aloft, so highs still around 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will become more densely overcast and there could be brief and slight falls of rain in some western counties, but essentially the pattern will remain dry for most parts, with morning lows 1 to 3 C and afternoon highs 9 to 11 C.

FRIDAY will become rather windy again (southerly 50 to 80 km/hr by afternoon) with a band of rain likely to move through by afternoon (west) and evening (east), after some lighter outbreaks in the morning. Morning lows 4 to 7 C and afternoon to evening highs of 10-12 C.

SATURDAY will be quite windy and a bit fresher than Friday as a slightly colder air mass replaces the rain with partly cloudy skies and a few passing showers, some of which could contain a bit of hail or sleet on higher ground in the north. Lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY is looking very windy and we are essentially on storm watch now, the main question is whether Ireland gets the full force of the gales and storm force wind potential, or whether it stays somewhat more moderate and the worst of it heads for Scotland instead. A very deep low is indicated on most guidance somewhere just north of Ulster but the exact severity of the outcome is not yet "carved in stone," however, would expect at the very least westerly winds of 70 to 110 km/hr and possibly as strong as 90 to 140 km/hr depending on track and your location (the north could get the strongest winds). Some squally showers are likely and high seas with coastal flooding seem more or less locked in as this westerly wind event has a long duration and fetch across the ocean. Temperatures will be in the 8 to 10 C range.

MONDAY could remain very windy as this weather system has a bit of a trailing second wave, so it will probably be similar to Sunday either way that breaks down.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY of next week will see no respite from windy conditions and in fact could produce a second storm of equal severity depending on the exact track of yet another deep low that should be somewhere near Donegal Bay by late Tuesday night.

And in the OUTLOOK, we have (you guessed it) more powerful storms and strong winds to watch, at that time range it's not really reliable enough to take the maps as more than general guidance but once these patterns lock in for a while, it's hard to see them changing much because it's a bit of a one-instrument band, the Atlantic with no competition is a force of nature that you know probably better than I do (the Pacific has its own way to rock so to speak).

Meanwhile, my local weather was quite tranquil for a change, sunny without much of a breeze, still quite chilly but tolerable by mid-day at about -3 C, after a start around -12 C. It's back down to about that now under clear skies with a half moon (really it's all there, I don't want to get into any arguments with the usual suspect).
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05-02-2020, 08:34   #5522
M.T. Cranium
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Wednesday, 5 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see an increase in higher cloud layers but it will remain fairly bright even if overcast, and rather chilly as light winds will not mix down much of the warmer air that will be moving in aloft, so that temperatures will recover slowly to highs still around 7 to 9 C, except for some locations near the Atlantic coast reaching 10 or 11 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with a few clear breaks mainly in the inland south, where a slight frost may form, lows -1 to +3 C.

THURSDAY will become more densely overcast and there could be brief and slight falls of rain in some western counties, but essentially the pattern will remain dry for most parts, with morning lows 1 to 3 C and afternoon highs 9 to 11 C.

FRIDAY will become rather windy again (southerly 50 to 80 km/hr by afternoon) with a band of rain likely to move through by afternoon (west) and evening (east), after some lighter outbreaks in the morning. Morning lows 4 to 7 C and afternoon to evening highs of 10-12 C.

SATURDAY will be quite windy and a bit fresher than Friday as a slightly colder air mass replaces the rain with partly cloudy skies and a few passing showers, some of which could contain a bit of hail or sleet on higher ground in the north. Lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will become very windy with southwest winds 80 to 120 km/hr and intervals of rain with a few squally showers, temperatures steady near 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY will continue windy with westerly winds 70 to 110 km/hr and occasional rain, temperatures steady 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY are also looking rather windy but details will need to be confirmed as there could be some periods with slacker winds if part of the expected system were to slide south as suggested in some guidance. Temperatures will remain in the 7 to 10 C range.

The OUTLOOK calls for yet another windy period late Thursday into Friday, then a gradual moderation may set in although this may keep getting pushed back, too early to be very confident about any breakdown of this disturbed period next week.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast and cold with a light snowfall that was mixed with ice pellets, temperatures steady around -4 C.
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06-02-2020, 08:29   #5523
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Thursday, 6 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values with a downward trend later in the period.
-- Rainfall will average about 75 per cent of normal values (locally above normal in Connacht).
-- Sunshine will average near normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with generally light winds becoming moderate southerly near Atlantic coasts. Highs near 8 C east to 11 C west.

TONIGHT will be overcast and milder with lows 3 to 7 C. Some light rain may develop in the west.

FRIDAY will become rather windy with outbreaks of rain (5-15 mm) expected, heavier by late afternoon and evening. Highs 10 to 13 C. Peak winds by late afternoon and evening south to southwest 70 to 110 km/hr.

SATURDAY will remain quite windy with outbreaks of light rain through most of the day, heavier by late afternoon and evening when it could become very windy (southwest 80 to 120 km/hr). Morning lows near 5 C and afternoon highs 8 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be stormy in parts of the west and north, and blustery elsewhere, as winds from storm "Ciara" intensify during the day. These winds will be westerly 80 to 130 km/hr in exposed coastal regions and 70 to 110 km/hr most other places. A large impact from this storm is likely to be elevated sea states, leading to coastal flooding especially around Galway Bay and other exposed west coast locations. Temperatures may vary with passing milder sectors in the storm, in the range of 7 to 12 C. Rain is not likely to be very heavy but some squally showers are likely with locally intense rainfalls.

MONDAY will continue very windy (westerly 70 to 120 km/hr) and it will be considerably colder with the squally showers likely to become increasingly wintry over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. Temperatures will be steady in the range 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY will also be windy and cold with passing wintry showers, temperatures in the range 3 to 6 C.

WEDNESDAY holds some uncertainty with the risk of another interval of stronger winds, temperatures coming back up a little to 8 C.

The OUTLOOK still contains some risk of further strong wind events around Friday and even beyond that although models in general are slowly easing off the stormy theme with a rising jet stream taking the deeper depressions further north. Whether that proves true or not remains to be seen.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with light snow and highs near -3 C.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 06-02-2020 at 09:07. Reason: It is Ciara not Clara (can you spot the difference? I didn't).
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07-02-2020, 07:30   #5524
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Friday, 7 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


(Trends are similar to yesterday's report, and will return after Storm Ciara next week)

Prepare for a long stretch of very unsettled weather lasting well into the middle of next week, but peaking on Sunday and Monday with the passage of complex and sprawling storm "Ciara."

TODAY will be overcast with outbreaks of rain rather light at first, becoming heavier by afternoon and evening. Winds will become rather blustery by late in the day, south to southwest 70 to 110 km/hr. About 10 mm of rain is likely with highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will remain cloudy with rain tapering to showers, then some dry intervals later, winds moderating to southwest 40 to 70 km/hr and lows near 5 C.

SATURDAY will be overcast with a few showers in the morning, heavier rain spreading in during the afternoon and evening with a leading wave of the storm arriving to produce southwest winds of 70 to 120 km/hr. Highs will reach 10 to 12 C. About 10-15 mm of rain can be expected.

SUNDAY will become very windy from early morning hours, especially near the west and south coasts where southwest gales of 80 to 120 km/hr are likely. Seas will become very rough and there may be some coastal inundations on the west and south coasts. Rain will become rather squally in bands of heavy showers with some risk of thunder and hail. Temperatures will be steady around 8 to 11 C. The storm may ease off slightly by afternoon and evening but it will remain blustery and start to feel colder.

MONDAY will see a renewed surge of strong winds and more coastal flooding likely with battering waves after a long build-up across the full fetch of the Atlantic Ocean. Temperatures will be dropping steadily before levelling off around 2 to 5 C, and showers will become mixed then quite wintry for most with heavy snow likely on higher terrain in all regions, dropping down rather close to sea level in the west at times. Snow accumulations of 2 to 5 cms may become rather widespread for a time, and 5 to 10 cms possibly on some higher ground. Winds westerly 70 to 120 km/hr, and there is some risk of an interval of stronger and damaging winds to hit around Monday evening (a watch is underway on that potential).

TUESDAY may see only slight relief as the storm circulation slowly moves further east and north, and gusts will continue to reach 90 or 100 km/hr. There will be a slight moderation of the cold temperatures by later in the day changing the mix of wintry showers back somewhat and pushing the rain-snow level on hills back up towards higher elevations. Temperatures will be in the range of 4 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY brings yet another storm system that is looking fairly intense on some guidance, we will deal with this one in more detail towards the end of the Ciara three-day onslaught, but there is some possibility of another intense windstorm event developing some time between Wednesday night and THURSDAY afternoon with southwest to west winds 70 to 110 km/hr likely at least. Temperatures will recover to 9 or 10 C to allow a return to mostly rain rather than a wintry mix, but that could return at the end of this second storm.

THURSDAY NIGHT into FRIDAY will turn colder with strong northwest winds and wintry showers, temperatures near 3 C recovering to about 6 or 7 C at best on Friday.

The further outlook is somewhat less stormy as the storm track shifts a bit further north. There are still expected to be frequent strong lows moving along in this pattern but their impacts on Ireland may be more moderate, however there will continue to be some gusty winds and rain at times. Temperatures are likely to become milder again in this pattern (from about 15th to late in the month).

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with snow, about 5-8 cms have fallen in the past few hours covering up the icy surfaces that developed in last weekend's rain and thaw here. We are expecting this to taper off overnight to be followed by some clearing. Meanwhile a rather strong low has developed in the eastern U.S. and that is moving into northern New England, bringing rain to coastal cities but heavy snow inland around Burlington VT and Montreal in Quebec, Canada. Some sleety mixed falls are likely between that snowfall zone and the milder coast.
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08-02-2020, 08:26   #5525
M.T. Cranium
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Saturday, 8 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... After some sunny intervals this morning, increasing cloud and stronger south to southwest winds developing, occasional light rain will be followed late afternoon and evening by intervals of heavier rainfall. Winds will peak at about 70 to 110 km/hr this evening in most areas with 10 to 15 mm rainfalls and highs of 10 to 12 C by late afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Staying quite windy and becoming stormy in some western counties towards dawn, southwest winds increasing to 80 to 120 km/hr there. Otherwise about 60 to 90 km/hr for most other regions. Occasional rain will continue with some thunder possible. Lows 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Very windy in most places, especially the west and south coasts with southwest winds of 80 to 130 km/hr there. More generally winds will be in the 70 to 110 km/hr range. Some coastal flooding possible on both west and south coasts, especially around high tides. Some further thundery rain likely for the morning hours, trending more to scattered squally showers later. Temperatures steady in the 8 to 10 C range.

MONDAY ... Continued very windy (westerly 80 to 120 km/hr) and becoming considerably colder with the squally showers increasingly mixed then wintry, some heavy falls of snow possible on higher terrain (5 to 15 cm could accumulate on hills). At lower elevations, a mix of hail, rain and sleet showers likely. Temperatures will be slowly falling most of the day to reach 1 to 3 C by afternoon and evening.

TUESDAY ... Windy and cold with further wintry showers likely, and additional snowfall on some higher terrain. Winds west to northwest about 70 to 110 km/hr, temperatures steady in the range of 1 to 4 C.

WEDNESDAY ... After a brief clearing and moderation of the winds around Wednesday morning, then becoming very windy again with another onslaught of rain with peak gusts possibly back to 120 km/hr. Temperatures recovering to about 8 C in the stormy conditions.

THURSDAY ... Windy and colder with mixed wintry showers, highs near 5 C.

FRIDAY could produce yet another windy and wet day.

The further outlook continues rather unsettled but perhaps with a trend to less blustery conditions and rather mild during the week following (15 to 21 Feb).

My local weather on Friday was misty with some light snow and freezing drizzle, followed by a brief clearing and then more snow by this evening with recent new accumulations of about 15 cms. The strong low that is to become storm "Ciara" is crossing Newfoundland at this time (967 mbs) and will be racing east-north-east all day to reach a point about 200 miles north of Donegal Bay by mid-day Sunday when it is expected to be around 950 mbs or lower. Although with many storms that far north the strongest winds stay off to the north of Ireland, in this case the strong winds will be more concentrated in a zone much further south than the low itself, and there is still some room for further development as upper air soundings in eastern Canada (taken around midnight) indicate very strong winds aloft even at lower levels of the jet stream. Keeping a very close eye on this one as the situation appears to have potential to "over-perform." Therefore an update is quite possible later today. Even without that extra intensity, this will be a significant event in part due to the long duration of the strong winds and also with the wintry situation in later stages.
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09-02-2020, 07:13   #5526
M.T. Cranium
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Sunday, 9 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Very windy, temperatures quite mild this morning but dropping steadily by afternoon when they may reach 7 C, thundery outbreaks of rain followed by squally showers with brief sunny intervals, in westerly gales of 70 to 110 km/hr, except for higher gusts near south coast this morning (80-120 km/hr there), and isolated stronger gusts with some showers possible throughout the country. These could be locally damaging. South and west coasts will have risks of flooding especially around high tide (full moon occurs today at 0734h IST).

TONIGHT ... Windy and colder with mixed wintry showers developing, some accumulations of snow (2-5 cm) on hills in north and west, then later also in south and east (1-3 cm). Lows near 1 C. Winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr making it feel more like -5 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and very cold with passing mixed or wintry showers. The greatest risk of snow accumulations of 3 to 7 cm will be on higher terrain but could also extend into parts of west Munster closer to sea level. Elsewhere at relatively low elevations, a wide variety of mixed showers likely, some rain, some hail, some sleet and snow. All of these will be accompanied by a chance for thunder. Temperatures will be close to 4 C but could be a bit higher near some coasts and lower where snow falls and continues to settle. Winds southwest to west about 70 to 110 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Windy and cold with further wintry showers and some further accumulations of snow on higher terrain. Lows near -1 C and highs near 5 C. Winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr will begin to ease gradually later in the day.

WEDNESDAY ... Bright and cold start to the day, some frosts, then a sleety mix of wet snow and rain likely in some central counties, trending to a cold rain on the south coast. Another interval of strong winds could develop especially near the south coast late in the day. Temperatures between -2 C (morning lows) and 7 C (afternoon/evening highs in the south) but it may stay colder in the north. Details on the potential windy conditions vary considerably from one source of guidance to another, could amount to just a slight increase over the daytime moderate winds or another peak of intense wind gusts depending on track of the low pressure near the south coast (any distance inland and the gusts on the south coast will be more severe).

THURSDAY will see another surge of colder air with mixed wintry showers and temperatures in the range of 2 to 6 C. Winds northwesterly about 60 to 90 km/hr.

FRIDAY looks considerably milder with southwest winds. There could be another windy frontal passage late Friday into Saturday, and then the outlook period stays rather unsettled too.

My local weather on Saturday was foggy to start, then turned out sunny for a while although the fog returned at sunset. Rather mild for this location and elevation at +2 C mid-day, but falling back to -5 C overnight.
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10-02-2020, 07:27   #5527
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Monday, 10 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall (including some snow) will average near normal amounts (of precipitation).
-- Sunshine will average near normal also.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy and cold with passing wintry showers. These will be frequently snow on higher ground and a mixture of all types of precipitation (rain, hail, sleet, ice pellets, snow) at lower elevations. Some will have a bit of thunder associated. Winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr will become gusty near showers, and may increase slightly to 80-120 km/hr peak gusts later. Highs only 2 to 5 C. There will be a continuing risk of coastal flooding around high tides.

TONIGHT will continue windy and very cold with the mix of showers becoming mostly snow except for some places near sea level that will continue to see mixed showers. Accumulations of 3 to 7 cm are possible on higher ground and 1 to 3 cm closer to sea level in some inland areas mostly. Winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr with some higher gusts. Lows -1 to +1 C.

TUESDAY will be windy and very cold with widespread snow showers in the morning, becoming more mixed again by afternoon. Some accumulations are possible in many parts of the country although at lower elevations these will tend to melt fairly quickly. Winds west to northwest 70 to 110 km/hr and highs 3 to 7 C. Some slight moderation is likely in the strong winds by afternoon and evening.

WEDNESDAY will start out bright and quite cold with scattered frosts, morning lows -3 to +1 C. Increasing cloud will be followed by sleet and rain, some snow on hills in Ulster. Temperatures will recover to about 8 C in the south but will remain 3 to 5 C further north. Winds will become moderate southwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr.

THURSDAY morning the rain-sleet-snow bands will move further east and the winds will swing back into the west to northwest, allowing colder air to return to all areas with mixed wintry showers returning to the south and central regions (having not let up further north). Morning lows 3 to 6 C then temperatures steady later in the daytime hours, winds increasing to west-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

FRIDAY will become much milder for a few hours with strong southwest winds and heavy rains becoming squally showers with possible thunderstorms, then windy and turning colder in stages. After about 10-15 mm rain, some mixed wintry showers will return to the forecast by later in the day as temperatures peak near 10 C with the front then fall off to 4-5 C later.

The OUTLOOK for next weekend is rather stormy too with yet another intense low taking aim on Ireland. There is some chance this one will go far enough north to avoid a severe windstorm but that more severe outcome is another possibility we are monitoring carefully.

My local weather has been rather calm and cloudy with temperatures a little below freezing most of the time, foggy at night but with some clearing in the daytime. Snow cover here had been depleted to about 25 cm but is back up to about 35 cm now.
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11-02-2020, 07:37   #5528
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Tuesday, 11 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall (including some snow) will average near normal amounts (of precipitation).
-- Sunshine will average near normal also.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy and very cold with widespread snow, hail and sleet showers in the morning, becoming more mixed again by afternoon. Some thunder may accompany these showers with severe wind gusts, driving may become quite dangerous briefly especially in higher parts of the west and north. Some accumulations are possible in many parts of the country although at lower elevations these will tend to melt fairly quickly. Winds west to northwest 70 to 110 km/hr and highs 3 to 7 C. Some slight moderation is likely in the strong winds by afternoon and evening. This should be the last day with any risk of coastal flooding (in this prolonged event).

TONIGHT there may be some brief clearing in parts of Ulster and Leinster with slight frosts developing by midnight or so, then increasing cloud will bring temperatures up slightly there. Overcast from this evening in the south and west with occasional rain, turning to sleet or wet snow on some hills further inland. Lows -2 to +2 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out bright and quite cold with scattered frosts in parts of the east and inland south, morning lows -2 to +2 C. Some light rain or sleet will come and go in some parts of the west and north. After mid-day, a general trend to increasing cloud will be followed by sleet and rain, with some snow possible on hills in Ulster during the overnight hours into Thursday morning. Temperatures will recover to about 8 C in the south but will remain 3 to 5 C further north. Winds will become moderate southeast to southerly 50 to 80 km/hr by evening.

THURSDAY morning the rain, sleet and hill snow bands will move further east across Ulster and Leinster, and the winds will swing back into the west to northwest, allowing colder air to return to all areas with mixed wintry showers returning to the south and central regions (having not let up further north). Morning lows 3 to 6 C then temperatures steady across most regions later in the daytime hours, winds increasing to west-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Parts of the south and the west coast could see highs around 8 or 9 C but this milder air will likely not make much progress inland.

FRIDAY will become much milder for a few hours with strong southwest winds and heavy rains becoming squally showers with possible thunderstorms, then windy and turning colder in stages. After about 10-15 mm rain, some mixed wintry showers will return to the forecast by later in the day as temperatures peak near 10 C with the front then fall off to 4-5 C later.

SATURDAY will become windy (southwest 70 to 110 km/hr) with outbreaks of rain, possibly mixed with sleet or wet snow on some higher ground in the north at times. Temperatures will edge back up to around 7 or 8 C in the south but only 4 or 5 C in the north. It will turn a bit colder late in the day and the mix of showers will trend towards more wintry types at least on hilly terrain. There remains a slight chance of even stronger winds than mentioned but this may be confined to some parts of the northwest and north.

SUNDAY looks windy and rather cold again with passing hail or sleet showers, highs 5 to 8 C and winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr.

The trend for next week looks more settled now, and there could be some calmer intervals with dry conditions mid-week. Later in the week and towards the end of the month, it may turn milder again without so many visits from the colder air but with unsettled conditions returning so that rain may become rather frequent again.

My local weather on Monday was sunny with fairly normal temperatures (for this location) of about +2 C in the daytime and several degrees below freezing overnight.
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12-02-2020, 07:33   #5529
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Wednesday, 12 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal (highs near 9 C and lows near 3 C about the current average).
-- Rainfall will average near normal values (20-25 mm a week is average).
-- Sunshine will average 80% of normal, meaning closer to 2 than the usual 2.5 hours a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be less windy and for the south and east, largely dry while the north and west see sporadic outbreaks of light sleety rain or wet snow on some hills. Highs will reach about 7 to 9 C in the south, 5 to 7 C elsewhere.

TONIGHT will become quite windy for a while near the south coast, with a spell of heavy rain (5-10 mm an hour for a few hours). Winds will increase to southerly 50 to 80 km/hr near the south coast, but only 30 to 50 km/hr southeast or variable elsewhere. As the rain moves further north and east, it may turn to sleet or even snow on some hills. Temperatures will level off around 5 to 7 C in the south, but closer to freezing further north.

THURSDAY will see the departure of the overnight mixed bag of precipitation by mid-day, then it will turn rather cold and breezy (west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr) with passing showers, some wintry on higher terrain. Highs will be near 8 C in the south, 4 to 6 C for most other regions.

FRIDAY morning will bring a brief but rather intense frontal passage with heavy rain for a time, and strong south to southwest winds peaking at about 80-110 km/hr, probably around the morning commute, then somewhat colder air will push in from the west and bring partly cloudy skies, still quite windy (50 to 80 km/hr) and passing showers that will become wintry in the north at times. Temperatures will peak at 10 to 12 degrees with the frontal passage, then edge down to 6 C or so by afternoon.

SATURDAY will become very windy at times as a new storm ("Dennis") approaches the region. Winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, some rain at times, possibly becoming heavy in the north and west, and temperatures steady around 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY will be very windy too with the strongest part of storm "Dennis" just off to the northwest, but some coastal regions could see gusts as high as 120 km/hr from the southwest to west. It will also be quite cold and some of the squally showers involved in this storm could turn wintry on higher ground. Temperatures will fall off to around 4 C and it will feel very cold in the strong winds.

The OUTLOOK for the rest of next week is for a gradual moderation as storm Dennis slowly decays into a less active disturbance, and higher pressure gradually builds in around mid-week. Temperatures will start out rather cold and turn somewhat milder for a time. However, there are indications that colder spells will return fairly often going towards the end of February.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast for the morning then sunny at times mid-day, back to cloud cover by sunset. Temperatures are fairly moderate by our standards (-2 to +1 C). There was an interval of light snow that left about 1-2 cm early this evening.
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13-02-2020, 07:33   #5530
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Thursday, 13 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values.
-- Sunshine will average about 75% of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... Rain across parts of the north and east this morning will taper to showers before partial clearing sets in. The rest of the country is already into a partly cloudy regime with a few isolated showers. There may be some gusty west to northwest winds at times around mid-day with further isolated showers in an otherwise partly cloudy afternoon, winds reaching 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs near 5 C north to 8 C south.

TONIGHT ... Overcast with rain becoming rather heavy towards morning as winds increase to southerly 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 5 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and mild with rain at times in the morning, 10-15 mm expected. Winds south to southwest 70 to 110 km/hr. Partial clearing and a bit colder by afternoon as winds shift to southwest 40 to 70 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Overcast with occasional rain, winds becoming very strong during the afternoon and evening, southwest 70 to 110 km/hr. Lows around 4 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Storm "Dennis" is expected to drift gradually eastward to the north of Donegal Bay, creating very strong westerly winds and colder temperatures with the rain or showers becoming sleety on higher ground. Winds westerly 80 to 120 km/hr, temperatures steady in the range of 4 to 6 C.

MONDAY ... Continued rather windy (westerly 50 to 80 km/hr) with passing wintry showers, some accumulations of snow possible on higher terrain. Lows near 2 C and highs near 5 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, not quite as cold or windy, highs near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain and milder southwest winds, highs near 10 C.

The further outlook calls for the unsettled period to continue with a colder turn expected after a few days of mild weather mid-week to the following weekend.

My local weather on Wednesday was spring-like with a rather warm sun boosting temperatures to 7 C in the early afternoon. It has dropped back a little below freezing with clear skies overnight.
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14-02-2020, 07:21   #5531
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Friday, 14 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 0.5 to 1.0 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be 25% above normal in parts of the west, closer to average further east.
-- Sunshine will only be about half of the normal mid-February averages.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... Rather windy (southwest 50-80 km/hr) with outbreaks of rain, generally rather light with 3-7 mm expected. Partial clearing will develop around mid-day with the winds easing slightly this afternoon (to 40-70 km/hr). Highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and mild with occasional light rain, winds southerly 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 5 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy with rain becoming heavier, especially over western counties where 20-40 mm amounts are expected (about 10-20 mm further east). Winds increasing to southerly 70 to 110 km/hr. Highs 10 to 12 C. Rain may be particularly heavy in parts of Kerry which could see local flooding, also Connemara and higher parts of Mayo could see isolated flooding.

SUNDAY ... Very windy, especially near north and west coasts, where westerly gales of 80 to 120 km/hr are likely from storm "Dennis" moving past towards western Scotland. Colder with passing squally showers, some with hail or sleet, snow possible on hills in the north. Temperatures steady 4 to 6 C but feeling colder due to the strong winds. Current indications are that further south, the strong winds will be blustery but not quite as severe (70 to 110 km/hr).

MONDAY ... Continued rather windy and cold with passing wintry showers, snow only likely on higher ground but mixed forms of precipitation can be expected elsewhere. Temperatures steady 4 to 6 C. Winds westerly 70 to 100 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Slow moderation of the strong winds and cold will set in, the main change to the weather will be a less biting cold wind (westerly 40 to 70 km/hr) and a slight increase in temperatures to 7 or 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... The rest of the week looks milder with moderate southwest winds returning and some rain at times. The latter stages of February look like being a blend of mild spells and brief colder intervals with near normal amounts of rainfall.

My local weather was overcast with light snow and temperatures down a bit from recent days, -2 C.
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15-02-2020, 08:17   #5532
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Saturday, 15 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will be 25% above normal in parts of the west, closer to average further east.
-- Sunshine will only be about half of the normal mid-February averages.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... Windy with rain becoming heavier, especially over western counties where 20-40 mm amounts are expected (about 10-20 mm further east). Winds increasing to southerly 70 to 110 km/hr with even stronger gusts at times near Atlantic coast. Highs 10 to 12 C. Rain may be particularly heavy in parts of Kerry which could see local flooding, also Connemara and higher parts of Mayo could see isolated flooding.

TONIGHT ... Windy with rain continuing, becoming lighter then tapering off to showers, as winds continue from southwest at 70 to 120 km/hr, lows near 5 C.

SUNDAY ... Very windy, especially near north and west coasts, where westerly gales of 80 to 120 km/hr are likely from storm "Dennis" moving past towards western Scotland. Colder with passing squally showers, some with hail or sleet, snow possible on hills in the north. Temperatures steady 4 to 6 C but feeling colder due to the strong winds. Further south, the strong winds will be blustery but not quite as severe (70 to 110 km/hr). At lower elevations most of the squally showers will be either rain or hail, on higher terrain some snow may accumulate.

MONDAY ... Continued rather windy and cold with passing wintry showers, snow only likely on higher ground but mixed forms of precipitation can be expected elsewhere. Temperatures steady 4 to 6 C. Winds westerly 70 to 100 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Slow moderation of the strong winds and cold will set in, the main change to the weather will be a less biting cold wind (westerly 40 to 70 km/hr) and a slight increase in temperatures to 7 or 8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and milder with rain at times, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Breezy and around 8 C later in the week before another windy Atlantic storm hits next weekend (22nd-23rd). After that it looks rather mild with the storm track moving a bit further north for a while, but eventually some colder days will be in the mix as well.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy with passing showers of snow pellets, most of that activity rather weak so not any new accumulation, just a few snow pellets in the air at times, then brief intervals of sunshine, and highs around +2 C. It has turned rather cold but dry in eastern regions of North America.
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16-02-2020, 07:44   #5533
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Sunday, 16 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



FORECASTS (Trends will return after Dennis)

TODAY will be very windy with passing squally showers, winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr for most, but 80 to 130 km/hr in some exposed coastal locations. The passing showers will be largely rain and hail near sea level, and a wintry mix on higher ground. All could be accompanied by some thunder and strong wind gusts. Temperatures will remain steady in the 5 to 8 C range (dropping at times on higher ground when snow is lying).

TONIGHT will continue very windy and showery, with strong to severe gusts at times in the north. There may be a slight moderation of conditions further south. Lows 2 to 5 C.

MONDAY will also be windy although for most areas away from exposed coasts, it may seem a bit less stormy, with passing showers continuing to bring a variety of precipitation, some snow on higher slopes. Temperatures will reach highs of only 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY will continue rather breezy but more moderate, with occasional showers, and winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 1 C and highs near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will turn a bit milder with rain and southwest winds of 40 to 70 km/hr, some higher gusts likely in western counties. Lows will be around 5 C and highs 10 or 11 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will also be quite breezy with temperatures steady in the 7 to 9 C range, some rain at times.

The OUTLOOK for next weekend and the following week is for rather mild weather most of the time, possibly a few brief colder intervals lasting less than a full day as the flow continues rather strong from a westerly direction. In general, it looks a bit less intense than this mid-month spell and there may be a hint of spring in parts of the south and east as temperatures during milder days may reach 12 to 14 C.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast and rather foggy with a bit of wet snow leaving a slight accumulation. The high was around -1 C.
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17-02-2020, 07:43   #5534
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Monday, 17 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 Feb 2020

-- All variables are expected to be rather close to average for the coming week.


FORECASTS


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and windy, rather cold, with passing showers, some wintry at times on higher terrain. Winds westerly 70 to 100 km/hr in coastal areas, 50 to 80 km/hr elsewhere. Highs 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, a few showers, windy and cold, lows 3 to 5 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, blustery with occasional showers, highs 6 to 8 C. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Somewhat milder with rain, southwest winds 60 to 90 km/hr. Morning lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY ... Rather windy and a bit colder again with showers, winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with rain, southwest winds 70 to 110 km/hr, highs near 10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Continued breezy to windy at times, unsettled. There are hints on various models of a stormy interval around Sunday night or possibly Monday, timing varies on different guidance but we may be tracking yet another storm around the end of the coming weekend.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Not much change in the week after next, but perhaps a bit less blustery and milder although still somewhat unsettled, the storm track appears to be slowly shifting further north and perhaps allowing temperatures to get a little above average at times, in the range of 11 to 14 C.

My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy with some light snow in the vicinity but hanging over the nearby mountains most of the time, not very windy and temperatures near 2 C.
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18-02-2020, 07:55   #5535
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Tuesday, 18 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 50% above normal in western counties, closer to average values further east.
-- Sunshine will average a little below or near normal (at this point, 2.5 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather windy and cold with passing showers, sometimes briefly heavy, although isolated in their extent. Some hail or thunder is possible with those. More moderate winds of 40 to 70 km/hr from the west. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will start out cold and dry in some eastern counties, overcast further west, with rain developing. Lows 2 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will become quite windy again, southwest 60 to 90 km/hr, and some higher gusts near Atlantic coasts. Rain will become persistent and somewhat heavier by afternoon and evening. Highs 10 to 12 C. About 20 to 30 mm of rain likely in west, 10 mm east.

THURSDAY will turn somewhat colder with brisk westerly winds, 50 to 80 km/hr, and passing showers. Morning lows near 5 C and afternoon highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY will be windy and mild with rain, once again rather heavy in western counties (another 20-30 mm possible). Moderate to strong southwest winds 60 to 90 km/hr. Highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy and unsettled with showers and highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY will turn windy again with rain at times, still some threat of a strong wind event although guidance mostly on the "moderate" side with potential for another 10 to 20 mm rainfall. Highs 10 to 12 C.

The outlook for next week is for more of the same, every two or three days another blustery and wet frontal system with some less stormy conditions between their times of arrival. Temperatures will be in the same general range but with the advancing season could be one or two degrees higher than this week.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy with passing snow showers leaving slight dustings, and some pleasant intervals of sunshine at times revealing snow covered mountain peaks in the region. There is apparently 2 to 2.5 metres of snow in the back country around here, in town it is closer to 50-75 cms where undisturbed, but they have a system here for plowing the streets that includes plowing the sidewalks and ground between so you tend to forget how much snow is lying around in general. That sounds like a lot of snow but I don't think it's even up to the long-term average for these parts.
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