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08-02-2020, 20:27   #451
Gonzo
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Originally Posted by typhoony View Post
ECM and UKMO hinting at the Lows taking a more northerly track in the Atlantic, I think we may see a period of more settled weather with average temperatures. first signs of spring hopefully in a few weeks time
the second half of February may prove milder than the first half, looks generally milder from next Friday but remaining very unsettled. The final 7 to 10 days of February are still too far out to decide what might happen.
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11-02-2020, 22:36   #452
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the second half of February may prove milder than the first half, looks generally milder from next Friday but remaining very unsettled. The final 7 to 10 days of February are still too far out to decide what might happen.
GFS and ECM have been consistent over the last few runs in bringing us milder weather for the last 10 days of February, next Wednesday looks to be the transition day. The jet is still powerful over the weekend but then it appears to weaken considerably and when it does reappear the following weekend it takes a more northerly springtime track.
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13-02-2020, 13:16   #453
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UKMO only goes out to 120hrs however it seems to be onboard with the change to milder more settled conditions, hopefully we'll get some 12c/13c by the end of next week into the weekend
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13-02-2020, 14:48   #454
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some very mild weather showing up around 9 days time as an area of high pressure pushes up from southern Europe with long fetch south-westerlies from the Azores and beyond. This only lasts a few days before the Atlantic potentially rolls back in with more unsettled and cooler conditions. Could get temperatures to 15 or 16C if this verified and conditions were right.



+10 to +12C uppers across the country for about 2 days.
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13-02-2020, 14:59   #455
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UKMO only goes out to 120hrs however it seems to be onboard with the change to milder more settled conditions, hopefully we'll get some 12c/13c by the end of next week into the weekend
next weekend is looking rather cool with cool zonal conditions, after that we may get something a bit milder. Still no signs of that PV losing power so any chances of high pressure will be short lived. The ECM not really on board with the brief spell of high pressure around the 22nd/23rd of February, it keeps it just to our south.

I'm now at the transitional weather dream stage do I look at the charts for upcoming mild/warm and settled spells with hints of spring like conditions or do I make a last ditch effort to try and find some early spring cold before the game is over for another year!
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13-02-2020, 19:56   #456
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On the last GFS run there was hints at a cold end to February due to heights building out west, which might allow for a northern toppler, i doubt it will happen, though, what's more likely is a continuation of what we already have.
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13-02-2020, 20:43   #457
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On the last GFS run there was hints at a cold end to February due to heights building out west, which might allow for a northern toppler, i doubt it will happen, though, what's more likely is a continuation of what we already have.
already gone on latest run, like all cold runs this winter, they don't last more than 1 or 2 runs before it's back to those relentless westerlies.
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13-02-2020, 21:35   #458
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The jet stream is just on a constant conveyor.

We have a little else except what we have since last August.

It does change in March and April though so I think things are going to dry out from next Wednesday a bit. After that the trend has been a bit drier if not completely.

Sunshine today was quite strong....for an hour
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13-02-2020, 22:40   #459
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next weekend is looking rather cool with cool zonal conditions, after that we may get something a bit milder. Still no signs of that PV losing power so any chances of high pressure will be short lived. The ECM not really on board with the brief spell of high pressure around the 22nd/23rd of February, it keeps it just to our south.

I'm now at the transitional weather dream stage do I look at the charts for upcoming mild/warm and settled spells with hints of spring like conditions or do I make a last ditch effort to try and find some early spring cold before the game is over for another year!
takes it's time next week but gets there eventually, just in time for the weekend. anyway it's going in the right direction if it's warmer weather you're after
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14-02-2020, 23:40   #460
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GFS still playing around with the idea of a very brief cold snap end of February/start of March. This has showed itself a few times over the past few days.

Looks very short lived with Ireland on the very edge of it. If this happened it probably would be the coldest day of the year with the -10 uppers getting into Donegal for 1 day. If there was another run after we would probably see the cold shifted to our east with warmer uppers returning to Ireland from the west.





This has a fair bit of support in various lower resolution GFS runs.









Let's see what happens with this, last ditch effort hoping for some wintryness before it's too late. Most likely scenario is we are too far west and will miss out by several 100km.
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14-02-2020, 23:50   #461
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Would that be the first cold spell for Europe this winter?
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15-02-2020, 00:46   #462
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Would that be the first cold spell for Europe this winter?
for some places most definitely. The only places that have really seen proper snow this winter have been in the south-east of Europe and Turkey. Norway has seen a good bit of snow but most of that is high ground.
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15-02-2020, 00:51   #463
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and here are all tonights gfs runs combined showing a definite cooling trend as we head towards March and the possibility of a cold spell. A bit more supportive this time around. But we've been here many times for this to change very quickly back to mild. Tomorrows runs will most likely drop this idea to continue to move it on like a carrot on a stick.

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15-02-2020, 14:48   #464
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Would that be the first cold spell for Europe this winter?
I was chatting with a Dutch friend and he said they had no snow so far where he is - which happens to be in the highest part of that country.
They had some snow across Eastern Europe already but they are having an exceptional winter too with a lack of proper cold that one would expect.
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15-02-2020, 15:02   #465
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I was chatting with a Dutch friend and he said they had no snow so far where he is - which happens to be in the highest part of that country.
They had some snow across Eastern Europe already but they are having an exceptional winter too with a lack of proper cold that one would expect.
friend of mine living in inland southern Sweden says no snow there all winter either, which is really exceptional for their location. They had some snow during the Autumn before the extremely mild winter got going early November. Temperature anomolies continue to show +2 to +5C above average for the next month in the region.

Last nights cold GFS run is of course completely different now and the cold toppler get's shifted much further eastwards and only really affects northern Scandinavia.
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