The market is like a river with multiple streams feeding into it - I don't think you can talk about a single property market.
One stream is high end property, which seems to be calming down considerably. Buyers here may be waiting until Brexit sorts itself out. Despite several predictions of imminent worldwide recession, there are plenty of mainstream commentators who are saying that economic fundamentals look quite strong - and we may even see a resolution to Trump/Brexit uncertainty in 2019 which would help confidence.
The next stream is property for sale to your typical "middle class". Supply here seems to be increasing, and prices are bouncing off the Central Bank limits. Property is there to be bought if you want it, but you might have to compromise on location or size of property. This market will find a stable equilibrium over the next few years as no builder is going to build unless they can make a profit. Attempts to increase the % of social housing in new build estates could lead unintentionally to a large drop in building activity. I can't see anything other than a catastrophic Brexit as a short term threat, and the changes of that is quite minimal.
Affordable housing for workers on lower wages remains a problem. There is property available, but the government affordability schemes (like all government schemes) are overly bureaucratic and not delivering. There is a bit of an expectation problem with lower paid workers expecting to be able to own a house close to Dublin city centre on a lower wage, which is never going to be realistic. The other problem is the cost of building - if a builder can only build houses for 200k at a minimum, that's the floor for new builds and no amount of protesting will fix it. Something radical needs to change here before this market changes - perhaps lower build standards.
The "homeless"/social housing market. Hard to know with this one, there seems to be a few genuine cases and a lot of people trying to game the system. It generates a lot of noise, but I don't see any celebrities offering to build social housing in their large back gardens. Putting a small amount of social housing into private estates is already testing purchasers patience, and there seems to be considerable opposition to building large social housing estates. Not easy to see an answer to this one.
The rental market appears to be screwed in the near term. Attempts to "fix" rents have largely backfired (as predicted), and small landlords are leaving the market. We have seen corporate landlords come in, and this can only be a good thing in terms of supply (and quality), but only if you can afford it. The demise of the bedsit/small apartment leaves a massive gap for cheaper rental accomodation for the lower paid. I think without some sort of radical change (e.g. allowing micro apartments New York style) there is no quick fix. This will generate a lot of noise from multinationals, as their foreign employees cannot source rental accommodation - maybe we'll see a return to the days when employers built housing for employees.
Last edited by hmmm; 01-01-2019 at 16:48.