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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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  • Registered Users Posts: 49 sanfranbest


    MN's will insist on a residential requirement in Ireland If WFH creates costs or risks for them. Those that assume that WFH will cause a collapse in Dublin house prices forget that WFH will be a 3-10 year process. It will have a bigger effect on commercial property rather than residential.

    WFH will be a 3-10 process,,,,,,,,I disagree,,, Covid 19 is here and until a vaccine is found, WFH will be implemented immediately,
    I agree that commercial property may take a bigger hit, but high end residential areas will be hit hard also.
    It took fours years from 2008 for residential property prices to hit bottom,, so its all a big guess as to how the next few years will pan out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,546 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Yes the corollary will be??????????

    If all the high earning Techie's move out of Dublin,,, who will support all the trendy cafes, restaurants and bars in the Camden quarter,,,,,
    Portobello is currently Techie central, walking distance to Facebook etc.

    The prices in those houses by the beach in Wexford will become a lot more expensive than they are currently


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    This house was listed last year for 575k, it sold for 675K in Dec 2019, 100K over the asking price,
    thats how crazy prices are in some parts of Dublin,,,,,,,,,,
    I would guess it was a few Techie's bidding against each other,,,
    I know its nice, but a 89 sqm, two bedroom, one bathroom terraced house for 675K,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Thats back to Celtic Tiger madness.
    Maybe the Techie's who bought it can now work from home and would rather have a nice four bedroom house on the beach in Wexford for less than they paid for this tiny house,,,,,,

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/42-martin-street-portobello-dublin-8/4361567

    Working from home will affect a lot of properties in Dublin,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

    Sorry I’m confused by this. You said it sold in dec 19? But the linK you provided says sales agreed. Are you saying it has been sold on again since dec 19?
    Big money for a small house...


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,013 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    WFH will be a 3-10 process,,,,,,,,I disagree,,, Covid 19 is here and until a vaccine is found, WFH will be implemented immediately,
    I agree that commercial property may take a bigger hit, but high end residential areas will be hit hard also.
    It took fours years from 2008 for residential property prices to hit bottom,, so its all a big guess as to how the next few years will pan out.

    Yes WFH may be implemented immediately but it will be 3-10 years before it begins to effect property prices. It effect may be a stabilizing rather than a collapse in prices.

    A government decision to build 10k social and affordable houses in Dublin per year may have a bigger effect but that is 18-24 months before coming on line

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,796 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Yes WFH may be implemented immediately but it will be 3-10 years before it begins to effect property prices. It effect may be a stabilizing rather than a collapse in prices.

    A government decision to build 10k social and affordable houses in Dublin per year may have a bigger effect but that is 18-24 months before coming on line

    Surely if meaningful numbers of WFH are implemented immediately then prices will be effected immediately? I don't get the cause of the 3-10 year lag?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,277 ✭✭✭Deub


    Companies have lease contracts for the building they currently use. They have no incentive to add extra cost for the WFH setup and pay the rent. They are likely to do it by stages. If they have 5 years left on the lease they will start the transition before but they will not go full WFH now.

    The way I see it, it should be a big win for MNCs. They will have lower rent costs but they will also pay less the employees. They will not pay the Dublin salary if you live in Waterford. Facebook already said it. It will mean less investments in Ireland from MNCs.

    In addition, many have their HQ here for tax reasons and countries are going after this loophole. If MNCs are not saving money being in Ireland, they will move.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,013 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    schmittel wrote: »
    Surely if meaningful numbers of WFH are implemented immediately then prices will be effected immediately? I don't get the cause of the 3-10 year lag?

    Just because people get the option to WFH it is unlikely that a large number of people will opt to change the location where they live. Yes so e who are renting may opt to move. However it is unlikely that the numbers who do will suddenly effect property prices. As well just because you get the option to WFH your partner/spouse may still be located in Dublin. As well if your skill/ career prospects are Dublin based ( financial services, tech based etc) it would not mean you suddenly up sticks and move to the stick.

    Younger people are attracted to Dublin and the lifestyle it unlikely to change. As I posted as well technical difficulty for MN companies with WFH will have to be overcome as well

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,013 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Deub wrote: »
    Companies have lease contracts for the building they currently use. They have no incentive to add extra cost for the WFH setup and pay the rent. They are likely to do it by stages. If they have 5 years left on the lease they will start the transition before but they will not go full WFH now.

    The way I see it, it should be a big win for MNCs. They will have lower rent costs but they will also pay less the employees. They will not pay the Dublin salary if you live in Waterford. Facebook already said it. It will mean less investments in Ireland from MNCs.

    In addition, many have their HQ here for tax reasons and countries are going after this loophole. If MNCs are not saving money being in Ireland, they will move.

    In other words for many be careful what you wish for

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 49 sanfranbest


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Sorry I’m confused by this. You said it sold in dec 19? But the linK you provided says sales agreed. Are you saying it has been sold on again since dec 19?
    Big money for a small house...

    No, it went sale agreed last year, but it takes forever to show up on the property price register,
    here is the link

    https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-50C91CC43EE76D9B802584DB004CFA7A?OpenDocument


  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,796 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Just because people get the option to WFH it is unlikely that a large number of people will opt to change the location where they live. Yes so e who are renting may opt to move. However it is unlikely that the numbers who do will suddenly effect property prices. As well just because you get the option to WFH your partner/spouse may still be located in Dublin. As well if your skill/ career prospects are Dublin based ( financial services, tech based etc) it would not mean you suddenly up sticks and move to the stick.

    Younger people are attracted to Dublin and the lifestyle it unlikely to change. As I posted as well technical difficulty for MN companies with WFH will have to be overcome as well

    It will only take a small number of FTBers to look incrementally further afield to get more bang for their buck to effect demand and thus prices. If WFH is a widespread option this will happen fairly quickly.

    Personally I think WFH is just one (fairly significant) part of a perfect storm of headwinds facing the market, all of which in combination could have a pretty meaningful effect.

    The tipping point will be if airbnbs in RPZs are shut down. I am surprised our new Minister has not made noises about this yet. I am beginning to think maybe he won't.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 306 ✭✭yes there


    Decided to move out of Dublin this weekend. Ploughing thousands down the drain paying rent since march and barely there. Was about to buy pre march but now obviously I'll get a greater bang for my buck 1 hr outside.

    Regarding social life, I will still play football for my club an probably on average stay once a month there for nights out gigs shows etc. Still saving money plus saving taxis(when I can get one) while staying in hotel so some implicit benefits also. Also gilf club membership will be a grand cheaper. Probably cost me 30 quid diesel going to office once a fortnight. That Was the concerning part, the social aspect but thought long and hard this past few months and can't believe how stupid of a mistake I could have made. Hindsight and lucky timing i guess.

    Was prepared to spend half a mill on a place, basic two two down cramped old house, needing renovations with a basic extension and long garden like 4 of my close friends and cousin have just done. Just to live in a nice area and still have limited privacy.

    I think the prudent decision is to sit it out for awhile, pay cheaper rent then pull the plug on a home that's just right. A home actually worth half a mill. 1 hr or 1hr20mins outside is perfectly manageable from a social perspective for me. In fact i spend nearly half an hour driving from cabra to milltown/templelogue to see friends anyway, can't see what difference an extra 40 mins will make there.

    I just hope we all have jobs in 6 months because if another wave hits were ****ed. Don't think we can stand another lockdown


  • Registered Users Posts: 29 seenn00J


    I'd just like to add my 2c here, the reason people live in Dublin isn't just because they work there. Easier access to employment is a feature of most capital cities of the world alright, but I could list countless other reasons why it's a more favorable place to live than rural life in Longford or Westmeath. So WFH policies are not imo going to cause an exodus from Dublin and knock-on crash in property prices. Especially people who already have roots in the capital (family, friends, children's schools, etc).


  • Registered Users Posts: 306 ✭✭yes there


    seenn00J wrote: »
    I'd just like to add my 2c here, the reason people live in Dublin isn't just because they work there. Easier access to employment is a feature of most capital cities of the world alright, but I could list countless other reasons why it's a more favorable place to live than rural life in Longford or Westmeath. So WFH policies are not imo going to cause an exodus from Dublin and knock-on crash in property prices. Especially people who already have roots in the capital (family, friends, children's schools, etc).

    Fwiw, I would prefer to live in Dublin but I prefer value for money. I can live with having to spend an extra 30 mins travelling. Kilkenny, athlone for example are not exactly rural. Still commutable regualty for work and see friends. Bit your right the only roots I have there is friends and cousin. So it's easy for me. The majority I guess are from Dublin wicklow kildare which wouldn't move outside further as easily as i am prepared to do


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Just because people get the option to WFH it is unlikely that a large number of people will opt to change the location where they live. Yes so e who are renting may opt to move. However it is unlikely that the numbers who do will suddenly effect property prices. As well just because you get the option to WFH your partner/spouse may still be located in Dublin. As well if your skill/ career prospects are Dublin based ( financial services, tech based etc) it would not mean you suddenly up sticks and move to the stick.

    Younger people are attracted to Dublin and the lifestyle it unlikely to change. As I posted as well technical difficulty for MN companies with WFH will have to be overcome as well

    Id move down the country if i could work from home 5 days a week.
    I would only get 3 days per week max so not attractive to me.

    The other half will not change the kids schools though. So moving down the country is out for now.
    Then there is the whole psychology of moving to another town. I would be ok with it, but other half wouldnt. Therefore thats out for that reason too.


    Lots of foreigners who come to work in my company would just go home if the job wasnt in dublin. They will only live in Dublin.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,471 ✭✭✭Villa05


    cnocbui wrote:
    Profit taking hardly works if you are living in the asset. If it's an investment property, you might want to line up an alternative investment with equal or greater returns. Taking into account the CGT, I think you might be struggling.

    CGT does not apply to a private residence,
    A falling market would benefit a person upsizing

    awec wrote:
    If someone can sell their house for 100k profit, why on earth would they sell it for less profit than that?.

    That is not what I said, with the outlook for property negative in the short term and medium to long term increasingly uncertain. Would some investors consider it a good time to sell
    Why would you profit take and pay 33% tax on any profit accrued. As there are costs involved, between solicitors and estate agents along with tax you could be looking at a 40% cost on a 100k profit.

    Good points but remember one of the measures introduced to kick-start the market after the last collapse was CGT exemption if you held the property for 7 years or more. With close to 50% of all sales since 2009 not requiring a mortgage there must be alot of investors sitting on significant profits.

    People forget that 1 of the lessons from the last crash was that today your worth millions tomorrow you could be worth
    - millions


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Villa05 wrote: »
    CGT does not apply to a private residence,
    A falling market would benefit a person upsizing




    That is not what I said, with the outlook for property negative in the short term and medium to long term increasingly uncertain. Would some investors consider it a good time to sell



    Good points but remember one of the measures introduced to kick-start the market after the last collapse was CGT exemption if you held the property for 7 years or more. With close to 50% of all sales since 2009 not requiring a mortgage there must be alot of investors sitting on significant profits.

    People forget that 1 of the lessons from the last crash was that today your worth millions tomorrow you could be worth
    - millions


    I know a fair few who want to sell now. But they cant.


  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,796 ✭✭✭hometruths


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    I know a fair few who want to sell now. But they cant.

    Cannot sell because of tenants/personal circumstances/market conditions? What's the problem?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,597 ✭✭✭✭errlloyd


    I find this thread has a lot of this.
    Person A: People will no longer be willing to pay such a premium to live in the city if they don't have to go into the city every day for work.

    Person B: But many people love living in the city for city life.

    Both of these sentences are possibly true, but if person A is correct about that prediction it will have an impact on prices, even if person B is also correct. To put it another way, if one person can demonstrate that demand is going to drop *in any sector* it is sort of useless pointing out that demand will remain static in another sector, you have to demonstrate where there will be an increase to compensate.

    These demand changes might be small, but their impact is leveraged. Why? Because supply and demand in property is non linear (or highly inelastic if you like). If demand is 101% of supply it seems like there is nothing on the market, everything is competed for. If demand drops 2% and is less than supply, it will suddenly feel like a buyers market.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    schmittel wrote: »
    Cannot sell because of tenants/personal circumstances/market conditions? What's the problem?


    Cannot get vacant possession to sell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,444 ✭✭✭fliball123


    errlloyd wrote: »
    I find this thread has a lot of this.



    Both of these sentences are possibly true, but if person A is correct about that prediction it will have an impact on prices, even if person B is also correct. To put it another way, if one person can demonstrate that demand is going to drop *in any sector* it is sort of useless pointing out that demand will remain static in another sector, you have to demonstrate where there will be an increase to compensate.

    These demand changes might be small, but their impact is leveraged. Why? Because supply and demand in property is non linear (or highly inelastic if you like). If demand is 101% of supply it seems like there is nothing on the market, everything is competed for. If demand drops 2% and is less than supply, it will suddenly feel like a buyers market.


    What you have left out is the properties of a property. As in you scenario of 80% of the property is not in a location that suits most people , then the demand will be low same goes if the house is in poor condition. At the moment it looks like supply is really poor


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    Id move down the country if i could work from home 5 days a week.
    I would only get 3 days per week max so not attractive to me.

    The other half will not change the kids schools though. So moving down the country is out for now.
    Then there is the whole psychology of moving to another town. I would be ok with it, but other half wouldnt. Therefore thats out for that reason too.


    Lots of foreigners who come to work in my company would just go home if the job wasnt in dublin. They will only live in Dublin.

    Exactly -there are a lot of factors that impact on making such a move. Age is another one. In my 20's, I'd never have even continanced the notion. I'm in my 30's now and while I still wouldn't do it, the visceral aversion to the idea is definitely not what it was. Maybe in my 40's I'd actually like the idea, who knows. I could definitely see myself making moves when I'm older (50's+) but I'd probably still want to keep an apartment in Dublin while maybe splitting my time with a country cottage somewhere properly isolated and near a nice beach.

    You have to get full WFH and agreement from all family members (or at least the adults) in order to move.

    Theres a poster above who just said he had decided against buying in Dublin, but when you read the post, what he's decided is commuter belt over small city center house, so not exactly a rural idil.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,540 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Just because people get the option to WFH it is unlikely that a large number of people will opt to change the location where they live. Yes so e who are renting may opt to move. However it is unlikely that the numbers who do will suddenly effect property prices. As well just because you get the option to WFH your partner/spouse may still be located in Dublin. As well if your skill/ career prospects are Dublin based ( financial services, tech based etc) it would not mean you suddenly up sticks and move to the stick.

    Younger people are attracted to Dublin and the lifestyle it unlikely to change. As I posted as well technical difficulty for MN companies with WFH will have to be overcome as well

    There is already anecdotal evidence from REAs in both the UK, US and Australia that there is a significant increase in interest in properties in rural towns and the like.

    I am astonished it would happen this quickly.
    Many Welsh towns are experiencing a boost in interest and some agents are on course to break sales records for June.

    So far, that interest seems to be driven by people reassessing their lives during the coronavirus pandemic and the realisation that working from home is now a possibility.

    Early signs suggest that there is a mini exodus from the bigger cities and parts of Wales are already benefiting, including places like Narberth, Crickhowell, Brecon and Aberdyfi.
    https://twnews.co.uk/gb-news/more-people-expected-to-move-to-wales-after-coronavirus-as-they-can-work-from-home
    City buyers seeking to secure a safe haven in the event of further COVID-19 lockdowns are driving a ‘super boom’ in rural real estate.

    Inquiries on rural holdings in the southern Gold Coast hinterland and Tweed Shire have risen sharply as buyers act on plans for a pandemic-proof lifestyle.

    “There has been a super boom in rural property inquiries,” said Christie’s Prestige Director Alex Caraco.

    “We’ve had a 300 to 400 per cent rise during COVID-19 on vacant rural land in the Tallebudgera, Currumbin, Numinbah and Tweed valleys.”
    https://www.realestate.com.au/news/covid19-lockdowns-drive-rural-real-estate-boom/


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,500 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Queenio wrote: »
    I suspect it's lack of supply and people not putting houses on the market atm for fear of getting a poor price. Im looking in a restricted south dublin area and not one house has been added in one of the more popular areas in the last two weeks apart from one house in very very poor condition for an executor sale. And I honestly think that one is completely over priced but it has had a very busy viewing within 48 hours
    Sounding like a broken record but even before Covid-19 a lot of the stuff on the market were either dumps and/or had issues.



    Since one of my working assumptions is that buying in Ireland means getting ripped off one way or another, the 10% or so drop in prices I have seen mooted in here is not in itself a reason for me to pull out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    cnocbui wrote: »
    There is already anecdotal evidence from REAs in both the UK, US and Australia that there is a significant increase in interest in properties in rural towns and the like.

    I am astonished it would happen this quickly.

    https://twnews.co.uk/gb-news/more-people-expected-to-move-to-wales-after-coronavirus-as-they-can-work-from-home

    https://www.realestate.com.au/news/covid19-lockdowns-drive-rural-real-estate-boom/


    More than likely people getting on the property ladder before this great recession locks them out of it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,471 ✭✭✭Villa05


    JimmyVik wrote:
    Cannot get vacant possession to sell.

    Interesting, pent up demand meets pent up supply meets tighter lending. Add a pandemic plus Brexit


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    seenn00J wrote: »
    I'd just like to add my 2c here, the reason people live in Dublin isn't just because they work there. Easier access to employment is a feature of most capital cities of the world alright, but I could list countless other reasons why it's a more favorable place to live than rural life in Longford or Westmeath. So WFH policies are not imo going to cause an exodus from Dublin and knock-on crash in property prices. Especially people who already have roots in the capital (family, friends, children's schools, etc).
    The some of them does not have cars because due with high property rent/car insurance /parking space they cant afford it and travel to work with bike or bus.They are locked down in city because has no transport for traveling from outside city.Bassicaly they are hostages.In serious economy downturn they will be or are hit first and badly because many of them live from wage to wage.They will leave Dublin first or are leaving already.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,471 ✭✭✭Villa05


    JimmyVik wrote:
    I just read that the government are planning to buy up the excess airbnbs now. Also if they cant buy them they are going to try to get them on 25 year leases.
    So they kill the value and earning power of these properties with rules and regulations and then swoop in to buy them cheaper themselves. If thats not market manipulation. I still dont think they will get them as cheap as they think they will.

    I think you overestimate the Government. Seeing how they spend taxpayers money, it would not surprise me if they increased their value and earning power

    I read that they solved the homeless issue by procuring holiday let's at full season price pre covid lock down

    Complete and utter stupidity to be buying up airbnb"s. All of them were built as resedintial units. Enforce the law and keep them as resedintial units
    0 cost to taxpayer

    Airbnb is for the letting of a room in your own house which you live in not a completely empty unit


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Villa05 wrote: »
    I think you overestimate the Government. Seeing how they spend taxpayers money, it would not surprise me if they increased their value and earning power

    I read that they solved the homeless issue by procuring holiday let's at full season price pre covid lock down

    Complete and utter stupidity to be buying up airbnb"s. All of them were built as resedintial units. Enforce the law and keep them as resedintial units
    0 cost to taxpayer

    Airbnb is for the letting of a room in your own house which you live in not a completely empty unit


    It looks to me like the problem is going to be that the government buy up or lease all property for social housing in the next few years, leaving very little for normal buyers, but costing the tax payer a fortune.
    So not only basically the normal buyer is now bidding against the council, who are increasing prices and to add insult to injury using the normal buyers own money (taxes) to do this.
    Pretty soon you wont be able to own a house unless you are given it by the council. Because there will be nothing left for you.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,013 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    It looks to me like the problem is going to be that the government buy up or lease all property for social housing in the next few years, leaving very little for normal buyers, but costing the tax payer a fortune.
    So not only basically the normal buyer is now bidding against the council, who are increasing prices and to add insult to injury using the normal buyers own money (taxes) to do this.
    Pretty soon you wont be able to own a house unless you are given it by the council. Because there will be nothing left for you.

    Councils and cooperations buying existing housing stock adds nothing to supply. Supply is the only thing that will solve the housing crisis. Unless Local Authorities and housing Association's revamp existing stock and build new stock you are still dealing with the same supply. However LA have to be given the power to deal with anti social behaviour and as well with people who damage there housing stock.

    If LA start to build numbers those renting to HAP tenants will start to sell up. LA could start to purchase some of these and other will purchase as family homes

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Villa05 wrote: »
    I think you overestimate the Government. Seeing how they spend taxpayers money, it would not surprise me if they increased their value and earning power

    I read that they solved the homeless issue by procuring holiday let's at full season price pre covid lock down

    Complete and utter stupidity to be buying up airbnb"s. All of them were built as resedintial units. Enforce the law and keep them as resedintial units
    0 cost to taxpayer

    Airbnb is for the letting of a room in your own house which you live in not a completely empty unit

    I don’t agree with not being able to let a full house or apartment at least some of the time. Many families would be unable to afford vacations if hotels were the only option.


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