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Enda's Error? Sunday Times Opinion Poll 18th October

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  • 17-10-2015 6:51pm
    #1
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭


    It appears FG have been slapped down for dallying with an early election, with Labour correspondingly rewarded. The only new party making any inroads are the AAA/PBP, suggesting Renua and the Soc Dems are paying the price for not building from the bottom up.

    FG 24 (-3)
    FF 19 (-1)
    SF 19 (0)
    Lab 8 (+2)
    AAA/PBP 7 (+2)
    Ind All 5 (+1)
    Renua 2 (0)
    Green 1 (-1)
    SD 1 (0)
    WP 1 (-1)


Comments

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    #2
    BOHtox
    Registered Users Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭BOHtox


    Poll was done over 10 days and before the budget. Next sunday's poll will tell the real story.


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    #3
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 20,763 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    BOHtox wrote: »
    Poll was done over 10 days and before the budget. Next sunday's poll will tell the real story.

    If Fine Gael take a jump in the polls post budget, I give up. Can the electorate really be short sighted enough to be bought by a budget again?

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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    #4
    aliveandkicking
    Registered Users Posts: 961 ✭✭✭aliveandkicking


    Brian? wrote: »
    If Fine Gael take a jump in the polls post budget, I give up. Can the electorate really be short sighted enough to be bought by a budget again?

    The electorate have a choice between FG who have just given an election giveaway budget, SF who promised even more "goodies" than FG in the budget, AAA who promised even more "goodies" than even SF promised or FF who are the kings of election gveaway budgets. As far as I know the only party advocating a fiscally neutral budget were the Social Democrats and they are at 1% in the latest opinion poll. I think that shows you that the electorate haven't really learned many lessons in the last 8 years.


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    #5
    BOHtox
    Registered Users Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭BOHtox


    Brian? wrote: »
    If Fine Gael take a jump in the polls post budget, I give up. Can the electorate really be short sighted enough to be bought by a budget again?

    With the alternative prospect being either

    a) handing the economy back to those who destroyed it in a coalition with those who will only make it worse (FF+SF)

    or

    b) An unstable far, far-left coalition

    I can see a lot of people thinking the stability of the current government as best option. The manifesto of:
    The abolition of the USC
    Returning to budget surplus from deficit
    Reducing unemployment to 6%
    Abolition of the HSE and returning to local health-boards.
    Universal health insurance.
    Fewer quangos, more efficient public service etc

    Is both realistic, based on what they have done in the present term, and appealing to voters.


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    #6
    Lockstep
    Registered Users Posts: 9,029 ✭✭✭Lockstep


    I'll be voting for the government parties in the next election. The alternatives are terrible and in fairness to the government, we've seen falling unemployment (currently on around 9.4%), a growing economy and an actual willingness to address the healthcare crisis (they brought in free GP care for under 6s so I'm willing to trust they'll deliver on the next stage of expanding it to under 12s). The budget was fairly decent in my opinion: the benefits were welcome but fairly minor (USC cuts, minimum wage increase, paternity leave) so it was positive without being excessive.

    The rest of the parties are either batshít insane (SF, AAA/PBP) or no hopers (Social Democrats, Greens)
    There's Fianna Fáil of course but seeing as they caused the crisis, I'm not giving them a preference anytime soon.


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    #7
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 20,763 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    BOHtox wrote: »
    With the alternative prospect being either

    a) handing the economy back to those who destroyed it in a coalition with those who will only make it worse (FF+SF)

    or

    b) An unstable far, far-left coalition

    I can see a lot of people thinking the current stability of the current government as best option. The manifesto of:
    The abolition of the USC
    Returning to budget surplus from deficit
    Reducing unemployment to 6%
    Abolition of the HSE and returning to local health-boards.
    Universal health insurance.
    Fewer quangos, more efficient public service etc

    Is both realistic, based on what they have done in the present term, and appealing to voters.

    I'm fine with people voting FG/Labour for these reasons, whether i agree with them or not. My issue is with a giveaway budget drumming up support.

    If FG surge in the poles it shows that the electorate has learned nothing. FF took a bad situation and made it worse with this carry on, I'd hope we won't fall for it again.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Options
    #8
    BOHtox
    Registered Users Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭BOHtox


    Brian? wrote: »
    I'm fine with people voting FG/Labour for these reasons, whether i agree with them or not. My issue is with a giveaway budget drumming up support.

    If FG surge in the poles it shows that the electorate has learned nothing. FF took a bad situation and made it worse with this carry on, I'd hope we won't fall for it again.

    Ah right I get ye now. I suppose the thing with democracy, particularly our system of parliamentary democracy, is that the final year can be more 'populist' to drum up support for their next term. It must be noted though that this budget was less expansionary than any final budget FF gave during their reign and I hope we never have budget expansion like that again.

    Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve


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    #9
    BoJack Horseman
    Registered Users Posts: 12,248 ✭✭✭✭BoJack Horseman


    Brian? wrote: »
    My issue is with a giveaway budget drumming up support..

    It wasn't a giveaway though.

    The tax reductions were equal to expenditure rises (about €750m each).

    To put this into context....
    The economy grew last year by around 6%.
    The total "giveaway" by the government amounted to an adjustment of 0.8% of GDP.... or to put it another way, about 8 weeks worth of economic growth!

    The 'giveaway' was actually tiny & rather prudent relative to what they could have done & relative to the insanity put forth by the opposition.

    Public service expenditure increased by €750m or put another way, a very modest 1.3% increase in funding YOY.
    This probably wouldn't cover internal inflation within departmental budgets (especially in Health where cost inflation exceeds the general economy).
    So in real terms much of the PS are likely to have to work with less money next year than this year.

    This couldn't have been further from a 'giveaway'.


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    #10
    aliveandkicking
    Registered Users Posts: 961 ✭✭✭aliveandkicking


    BoJack Horseman wrote: »
    It wasn't a giveaway though.

    The tax reductions were equal to expenditure rises (about €750m each).

    To put this into context....
    The economy grew last year by around 6%.
    The total "giveaway" by the government amounted to an adjustment of 0.8% of GDP.... or to put it another way, about 8 weeks worth of economic growth!

    The 'giveaway' was actually tiny & rather prudent relative to what they could have done & relative to the insanity put forth by the opposition.

    Public service expenditure increased by €750m or put another way, a very modest 1.3% increase in funding YOY.
    This probably wouldn't cover internal inflation within departmental budgets (especially in Health where cost inflation exceeds the general economy).
    So in real terms much of the PS are likely to have to work with less money next year than this year.

    This couldn't have been further from a 'giveaway'.

    You're forgetting the supplementary budgets totalling 1.5 billion onto this years spending which of course carries forward into next year. It means the total expansion is 3 billion.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/business/cantillon-an-ecumenical-look-at-budget-strategy-1.2389067


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    #11
    BoJack Horseman
    Registered Users Posts: 12,248 ✭✭✭✭BoJack Horseman


    aliveandkicking wrote: »
    You're forgetting the supplementary budgets totalling 1.5 billion onto this years spending which of course carries forward into next year.

    Hadn't thought of that.

    the 2015 supplementary budget will be, as you say, around €1.5bn.
    This is a €320m YOY increase on last years supplementary budget.

    So taking this €320m increase, on top of the €750m increase that they have vouched for next year... public service expenditure will increase by 1.95%
    YOY (or 0.56% of GDP)..... I doubt the PS will leap for joy with less than 2% extra to play with.

    The arbitrary target set by the EU apparently is 1.8%
    So, PS expenditure growing at 1/3rd the pace of the economy is not exactly reckless.


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    #12
    aliveandkicking
    Registered Users Posts: 961 ✭✭✭aliveandkicking


    BoJack Horseman wrote: »
    Hadn't thought of that.

    the 2015 supplementary budget will be, as you say, around €1.5bn.
    This is a €320m YOY increase on last years supplementary budget.

    So taking this €320m increase, on top of the €750m increase that they have vouched for next year... public service expenditure will increase by 1.95%
    YOY (or 0.56% of GDP)..... I doubt the PS will leap for joy with less than 2% extra to play with.

    The arbitrary target set by the EU apparently is 1.8%
    So, PS expenditure growing at 1/3rd the pace of the economy is not exactly reckless.

    True enough, it isn't as reckless as election giveaway budgets in the past however a 3 billion expansion is enough to make me feel uneasy. I expect and understand the political reality that they had to give something back to have any hope of re-election. I thought they would have pushed up to 2 billion but a 3 billion expansion while still running a deficit and the economy already growing at over 6% is taking the piss a bit.


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    #13
    BoJack Horseman
    Registered Users Posts: 12,248 ✭✭✭✭BoJack Horseman


    aliveandkicking wrote: »
    3 billion expansion is enough to make me feel uneasy........ I thought they would have pushed up to 2 billion

    It isn't €3 billion though.

    - the supplementary budget for 2015 is €320m higher than the previous year
    - Budgeted expenditure for 2016 is €750m higher than the previous year.
    While on the other side:
    - Tax cuts expect to cost the exchequer around €750m.

    There's your sub-€2 billion right there.

    I searched for the "3 billion" thing and the top result was an Irish Examiner piece that was distortive.


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    #14
    aliveandkicking
    Registered Users Posts: 961 ✭✭✭aliveandkicking


    BoJack Horseman wrote: »
    It isn't €3 billion though.

    - the supplementary budget for 2015 is €320m higher than the previous year
    - Budgeted expenditure for 2016 is €750m higher than the previous year.
    While on the other side:
    - Tax cuts expect to cost the exchequer around €750m.

    There's your sub-€2 billion right there.

    I searched for the "3 billion" thing and the top result was an Irish Examiner piece that was distortive.

    A bit more info in the IT. http://www.irishtimes.com/business/department-disputes-3bn-giveaway-1.2389237

    It is fairly straightforward. They announced 10 days ago are going to spend 1.5 billion more this year than they announced in budget 2015. That 1.5 billion will be carried into next year. In addition to that 1.5 billion above orignal budget they also announced an extra 750 million in spending and 750 million in tax cuts in budget 2016. The combined sum of the unbudgeted 1.5 billion supplementary spending together with 750 + 750 make the 3 billion. Prior to the announcement 10 days ago of the extra 1.5 billion in spending the deficit was expected to come in at 1.7% of GDP this year. Now it has been revised upwards to 2.1%.


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    #15
    BoJack Horseman
    Registered Users Posts: 12,248 ✭✭✭✭BoJack Horseman


    But you can't look at the supplementary budget like its in a vacuum.

    There is a supplementary every single year.

    So its cannot be compared to nothing.
    It has to be compared to its previous year.

    Therefore if the supplementary increased from €1.18bn in 2014 to €1.5bn in 2015, you dont have a €1.5bn increase in expenditure.


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    #16
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    BoJack Horseman wrote: »
    But you can't look at the supplementary budget like its in a vacuum.

    There is a supplementary every single year.

    So its cannot be compared to nothing.
    It has to be compared to its previous year.

    Therefore if the supplementary increased from €1.18bn in 2014 to €1.5bn in 2015, you dont have a €1.5bn increase in expenditure.


    That depends on whether the €1.18bn supplementary in 2014 was added to the base for 2015. If it was, then you do have a €1.5bn increase in 2015 over and above the previous increase. I am not saying you are wrong, just that someone needs to actually dig out the budgetary tables for this year and last year to check the facts.


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