Much colder, wintry showers, some of snow Easter Sunday 2021 onward

Nqp15hhu · 01-04-2021 12:14am

510dam line almost touches the north coast on this run! Unbelievable!

An Ri rua · 01-04-2021 12:26am

External Association wrote: »

Snow is more common at Easter than Christmas, regardless of whether Easter falls in March or up to mid April.

April snow. Off the top of my head from memory given my age, 2nd April 1987, first week of April 1992, early April 1994, 9-11 April 1998, 16th April 1999 in Rathfarnham for the am, early April 2008, and in early April 2010 it hung around much of Highland Leinster after the fall of 30/31 March.

Posts like 'snow in April can fcuk right off' show no knowledge of our climate. It has never done that. Eddie Graham's Dublin Weather diary is excellent on convective potential for snow showers in April.

Great post.

Question: Is Christy Moore your grandfather?

Birdnuts · 01-04-2021 1:04am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Just terrific stats Syran. Thanks a million.

I would share your scepticism on that Blacksod low, but at the same time, I'd not rule it out either. A supplement that came with the Met Eireann April 1986 climate summary focused on the snow storm of early April 1917 and according to it, west Mayo was hit particularly bad with some incredible amounts falling in relatively short periods of time. Not sure if this supplement is attached to the online version of that monthly summary, but I am sure I have a hard copy of it here (somewhere!) that I kindly got from Met Eireann themselves years ago. I'll try and root it out and post a snap shot of it here if no online version is available.

Yes - it mentioned 6ft snow drifts on the Erris peninsula and the following night the UK recorded its lowest ever April min of -16c in Cumbria.

sryanbruen · 01-04-2021 1:18am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Just terrific stats Syran. Thanks a million.

I would share your scepticism on that Blacksod low, but at the same time, I'd not rule it out either. A supplement that came with the Met Eireann April 1986 climate summary focused on the snow storm of early April 1917 and according to it, west Mayo was hit particularly bad with some incredible amounts falling in relatively short periods of time. Not sure if this supplement is attached to the online version of that monthly summary, but I am sure I have a hard copy of it here (somewhere!) that I kindly got from Met Eireann themselves years ago. I'll try and root it out and post a snap shot of it here if no online version is available.

Do show that if you can.

The UK Met Office monthly weather report for April 1917 mentions Blacksod having 8-10 ft drifts in the space of an hour and a half on the 1st.. which is just unimaginable to think today in winter, let alone April.

When you look at the source where the air was coming from at that time, it becomes less of a surprise why it was so extreme. Svalbard was surrounded by sea ice and had seen temperatures dipping down close to -50C in late March that year.

M.T. Cranium · 01-04-2021 2:19am

The record low values for 5th and 6th in the CET come from 1911 but that turned out to be an easterly set-up so my guess would be that Ireland was around 3-5 C with mixed sleety bands of showers in that outbreak.

The 1917 outbreak was more of a northeast backing to northwest pattern with low pressure moving past the south coast.

April snow cover can reflect a lot of incoming solar radiation, I recall it being around -8 C in the daytime after an unusually heavy snowstorm where I used to live in Ontario in April 1975 (and that was at 45 deg N lat).

In this coming event despite the impressive looking uppers I suspect the relatively warm ocean temperatures may prevent records from being broken although it will certainly be cold enough for snow to fall especially from more active showers, snow pellets and ice pellets are quite likely to be in the mix too.

I'll guess that some locations in NI if not in the north of the Republic will have maxima of around 2 C but perhaps more significant, temperatures will be oscillating depending on shower activity and it could fall to near freezing at times during the warmer part of the days.

We'll have to see if the recent tendency of models to overestimate cold parameters especially in northerlies is repeated on this occasion (if so the culprit is probably the longer time being spent over 5-8 C water when compared to analogues built into the modelling).

TheMilkyPirate · 01-04-2021 9:48am

External Association wrote: »

Posts like 'snow in April can fcuk right off' show no knowledge of our climate.

Or maybe just maybe the people saying that just don't want cold weather and snow at this time of year.

Whatever your into but cold windy rain with a few ice pellets mixed in isn't exactly what I'm looking for in spring.

Gaoth Laidir · 01-04-2021 10:14am

For now it looks like the coldest upper pool (700-500 hPa air from the Greenland ice cap) will be focused more over the east and the UK later Monday and Tuesday, so that's where the heaviest hail and snow showers would be. Slightly less intense further west, given the slightly shallower convection, but still an interesting couple of days, if not a pain in the ass.

Nqp15hhu · 01-04-2021 10:19am

The north will have the heaviest precipitation, it’s a northernly.

Anyway Met Office has heavy snow showers all Sunday night for me

sryanbruen · 01-04-2021 11:14am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The record low values for 5th and 6th in the CET come from 1911 but that turned out to be an easterly set-up so my guess would be that Ireland was around 3-5 C with mixed sleety bands of showers in that outbreak.

-5.6C min at Markree on the 6th but I see nothing else that stands out about that particular spell or month. 2 days of falling snow at Roches Point and in Dublin City. Maxima were pretty modest on both days for Ireland in the 4-9C range of the stations in the daily weather report.

It's clear the most notable Irish April cold spells are first half of April 1917, the middle period of April 1966 which was also an exceptionally wet month and late April 1908 which also contained a snowstorm for England. In terms of low max, no April spells since have quite matched these, at official stations anyway. Has this been because of the increased moderation of northerlies with warmer SSTs/less sea ice and or the lack of an April snowstorm to suppress temperatures during the day for a prolonged period of time? It's interesting to ponder at.

External Association · 01-04-2021 11:50am

An Ri rua wrote: »

Great post.

Question: Is Christy Moore your grandfather?

Seamus Ennis wrote Easter Snow. But fair enough.

Gaoth Laidir · 01-04-2021 11:56am

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The north will have the heaviest precipitation, it’s a northernly.

Anyway Met Office has heavy snow showers all Sunday night for me

I meant the northeastern half of the country. There will be around 20-25 degrees of a difference in 500-hPa temperature between the northeast and southwest, with near -40 C around Antrim and -17 C in Kerry.

External Association · 01-04-2021 12:02pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Or maybe just maybe the people saying that just don't want cold weather and snow at this time of year.

Whatever your into but cold windy rain with a few ice pellets mixed in isn't exactly what I'm looking for in spring.

I understand but that's what Spring can deliver and regularly does. We've had 25c temps in mid to late September. Summer weather in autumn. That's how it works, regardless of what any of us are looking for.

You are particularly vulnerable to cold outbreaks in March and April as oceans are still relatively cold. Solar power is much stronger than winter but still you're only 10 days past the equinox today for example.

It's a very idyllic picture of 'Spring' to not expect this type of colder weather and feel entitled to pleasant conditions, telling colder weather it can 'fcuk right off'. We live in Ireland and that's the reality of our climate.

External Association · 01-04-2021 12:08pm

With regard to farming, April 1989 was one of the coldest on record over much of Ireland, colder than Jan, Feb, March that year at most stations.

Yet grass growth in April was better than expected and silage first cuts in May (which had a mini heatwave mid-month) were near normal in volume. Maybe some of it is down to daylight length, I don't know.

Nqp15hhu · 01-04-2021 12:43pm

External Association wrote: »

With regard to farming, April 1989 was one of the coldest on record over much of Ireland, colder than Jan, Feb, March that year at most stations.

Yet grass growth in April was better than expected and silage first cuts in May (which had a mini heatwave mid-month) were near normal in volume. Maybe some of it is down to daylight length, I don't know.

Where I live the grass turns brown after a prolonged period of subzero soil temps... usually a week or more. So it’s possible the sun warmed the ground enough above freezing then.

External Association · 01-04-2021 12:48pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Where I live the grass turns brown after a prolonged period of subzero soil temps... usually a week or more. So it’s possible the sun warmed the ground enough above freezing then.

March 2010 was a really classic 'brown grass' month in the south Midlands. A prolonged period of severe frosts.

pauldry · 01-04-2021 1:32pm

We had a brown May one year in Sligo. Brown and yellow grass and trees dying.

Was only 10c most days and windy as it always is. Also no sun but it was quite dry. Dunno what year. Prob nearly 10 years ago now.

The leaves went from green to brown and though some recovered in June a lot didnt.

At least its only April yet so this cold wont do much damage apart from frosts inland.

Nqp15hhu · 01-04-2021 1:48pm

The grass here is still sort of brown from the February spell.. I don't expect any browning in this cold spell, it's only 2-3 days. Would need to be 2-3c and frosts for at least a week.

External Association · 01-04-2021 1:49pm

pauldry wrote: »

We had a brown May one year in Sligo. Brown and yellow grass and trees dying.

Was only 10c most days and windy as it always is. Also no sun but it was quite dry. Dunno what year. Prob nearly 10 years ago now.

The leaves went from green to brown and though some recovered in June a lot didnt.

At least its only April yet so this cold wont do much damage apart from frosts inland.

The 1998 April cold did the worst damage due to the prolonged warmth preceding it and amount of lush, soft growth.

There was an article I read in 1994 by Brendan McWilliams on how common air frosts were in the 3rd week of May. It was a surprise to me.

External Association · 01-04-2021 1:55pm

As regards summers after cold Aprils, 1989 and 1990 turned out well. Though in general I don't think there's any major correlation.

2003 and 2007 had beautiful warm Aprils. 2003 followed by a cracking summer. 2007 by a washout summer. I think there is more of a trend for a poorer summer after a warm, dry April. Last year would be an example.

highdef · 01-04-2021 2:34pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The grass here is still sort of brown from the February spell.. I don't expect any browning in this cold spell, it's only 2-3 days. Would need to be 2-3c and frosts for at least a week.

I badly need to get my second cut of the year done in the east midlands as it's turning into a jungle.

On-topic, my current thinking is a good covering of snow on the hills and mountains with Ulster being most favoured. Being now April, I would think it would be very important that there is a decent covering on lower ground overnight on Sunday into Monday for there to be any hope of snow hanging around in exposed areas beyond late morning. When I say decent covering, I mean at least a couple of centimetres minimum across all surfaces. With the winds looking quite strong, there runs the risk of snow blowing and building up in corners/crevices etc, leading to areas of the ground bare or just having a dusting. The morning sun will have those areas fully melted very soon after the sun begins shining on them and once that process begins, surrounding areas will suffer rapid snow melt.

So the key is good coverage with no bare/dusting patches. Shaded areas will of course do better but shaded areas are becoming fewer and fewer with the suns position increasing in altitude every day.

I'm also curious to see how much land based convection occurs inland on Monday afternoon, especially in the east and north, well away from northern coasts. The strong sun that I mentioned that could destroy some pretty lying snow in no time could also be what creates the snow showers further inland although I don't foresee anything noteworthy with regards to coverings of snow but I may get some nice cloudscape timelapse video.

Will be watching the models closely in the coming days and my opinions mentioned above are VERY much subject to change!

Nqp15hhu · 01-04-2021 2:38pm

Lying snow at low levels will greatly depend upon the frequency of snow showers..in the past we have had northerly’s with constant snow showers building up and up.

On the other hand if it’s just the odd shower...

highdef · 01-04-2021 2:50pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Lying snow at low levels will greatly depend upon the frequency of snow showers..in the past we have had northerly’s with constant snow showers building up and up.

On the other hand if it’s just the odd shower...

Indeed, there is a decent risk that some areas will be favoured and will get the lions share of overnight snow showers or even something more organised and I hope it's you as you've had feck all at your home this winter/spring.

Oneiric 3 · 01-04-2021 3:41pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Do show that if you can.

The UK Met Office monthly weather report for April 1917 mentions Blacksod having 8-10 ft drifts in the space of an hour and a half on the 1st.. which is just unimaginable to think today in winter, let alone April.

When you look at the source where the air was coming from at that time, it becomes less of a surprise why it was so extreme. Svalbard was surrounded by sea ice and had seen temperatures dipping down close to -50C in late March that year.

Very interesting.

Cant seem to find that particular supplement (I'll take a further look later on) but the April 1987 monthly summary mentioned this event also:

Looking at the forecast flows, and while we'll no doubt get some sleet'/hail/snow showers at times, the pressure pattern over Ireland is diverging rapidly (more influenced more by high pressure than low). This air mass will be far more potent over the likes of Scotland and the north sea coastal lands of Europe. The (albeit weak, milky) sunshine today has my hands instinctively wanting to dig deep into the soil, so I hope this upcoming miserable spell of weather fecks off as soon as possible, but looking at the charts, there seems to be little hope of that happening.

Oneiric 3 · 01-04-2021 3:46pm

pauldry wrote: »

We had a brown May one year in Sligo. Brown and yellow grass and trees dying.

Was only 10c most days and windy as it always is. Also no sun but it was quite dry. Dunno what year. Prob nearly 10 years ago now.

The leaves went from green to brown and though some recovered in June a lot didnt.

At least its only April yet so this cold wont do much damage apart from frosts inland.

Possibly May 2010 or 11 when strong winds turned all the leaves black here as well. Horrible sight with little recovery during the following summer.

Tyrone212 · 01-04-2021 4:11pm

Strabane, 12 April 1917 - There has not been as cold a spring in Ireland since records began, according to a British meteorologist, Dr Mill.

Ireland is currently in the midst of a brutal spell of April weather. Frost is playing havoc with crops - snowfalls around Dublin are heavy and frequent. Sheep have perished and, in Ulster, a girl living five miles from Strabane was said to have become ‘insane’ after she lost her way in a blizzard and wandered in the fields all night.

Trains have been forced to stop running in various parts after the snowfall was too deep to plough through. There is no likelihood that conditions will ease in the coming days.

https://www.rte.ie/centuryireland/index.php/articles/coldest-irish-april-for-36-years

To be honest I'd lose my marbles as well if I was stranded near Strabane.

Oneiric 3 · 01-04-2021 4:15pm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

12 April

An accursed date. The day I was dragged from sweet nothingness into this infernal realm of consciousness.

Goldfinch8 · 01-04-2021 4:38pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Possibly May 2010 or 11 when strong winds turned all the leaves black here as well. Horrible sight with little recovery during the following summer.

I associate that wind damage of the leaves with the time around the period when Obama came to Ireland which was May 2011. I actually recall a tree been blown over in my own garden but my abiding memory of that May was the scorching that trees and hedges got on the windward side. There was a rusty brown burnt look on many of the hedges and trees in this part of the West. I actually saw this effect on trees as far inland as Ballaghaderreen, Co Roscommon that Summer. Even the hardy hawthorn hedgerows in this part of Central Mayo got a fair scorching from the wind that year.
'An Gaoth Rua' or the red wind as some of the older folk around here called it at the time.

Snowbie · 01-04-2021 5:04pm

I have done my latest video forecast on the cold spell which could last right until the following weekend from Easter Sunday. What a great dynamic month April can be. Video below if anyone is interested

https://youtu.be/oQo6rKaIKTk

Nqp15hhu · 01-04-2021 5:53pm

The 510dam line now touches the north coast on Monday at 6am. With each run it gets progressively closer.

Though the cold air seems to end up coming in, in the evening now unfortunately.

Very cold air on Monday night

Met Office going for 3c Monday.

Nqp15hhu · 01-04-2021 6:13pm

GS referred to higher 500-700 temps. This site shows Derry at -39c on Monday early hours.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=Egae&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=submit

Much colder, wintry showers, some of snow Easter Sunday 2021 onward

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