Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

maninasia · 05-03-2020 4:17am

cson wrote: »

2001 is vastly different from 2020.

The scaremongering over this flu is insane. It's quite literally a self induced global recession.

It's not scaremongering, and it's not flu.
You will get an even worse recession if your country becomes chaotic with tens of thousands infected at the sender time.

cson · 05-03-2020 4:43am

maninasia wrote: »

It's not scaremongering, and it's not flu.
You will get an even worse recession if your country becomes chaotic with tens of thousands infected at the sender time.

It's 3k deaths out of 100k infections, for sure the mortality rate is greater than flu. But lets get a grip here; it's 3% - not exactly the black death or Spanish flu we're dealing with here.

cson · 05-03-2020 4:44am

Tenger wrote: »

A mate sent me this link, its more US/global based but might be worth a 3-4 min read;
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/coronavirus-effect-staggers-the-aviation-industry-as-air-travel-shrivels/

Written by an Irish guy would you believe.

maninasia · 05-03-2020 4:53am

cson wrote: »

It's 3k deaths out of 100k infections, for sure the mortality rate is greater than flu. But lets get a grip here; it's 3% - not exactly the black death or Spanish flu we're dealing with here.

Don't underestimate the impact of this deadly virus.

It's not just 'greater' it's a magnitude more deadly!
It has a death rate ten times higher than the worst flu and it's also far more infectious. Again this is NOT the flu it is a different virus. It's actually SARS 2.0. The only saving grace is it doesn't seem to severely impact young children and it doesn't kill as many people as SARS 1.0.

If it spreads rapidly it completely degrades local hospitals ability to function properly . Whole cities can and are being shut down. The rate that it can spread is incredible if you follow the cases where it got out of control in Italy and Korea.

Italy and Korea went from one case to thousands of cases in a few weeks !

This is because humans do not seem to have acquired any immunity to this strain of coronavirus . Basically you have a high probability to be infected if you spend more than 15 mins in close proximity to somebody who has the virus (or at least has somebody who has already developed symptoms). You can look up the case of the attorney in New York and what happened there to his friends and family if you are not convinced!

maninasia · 05-03-2020 5:05am

billy few mates wrote: »

One move airlines should seriously consider is absolutely insisting that passengers remain in their allocated seats once they board the aircraft in case there are any cases where the patient travelled by air and they need to contact the passengers who were seated near them.
On the radio the other day the health minister said that they only contacted the passengers in the couple of seat rows around where the victim was seated.
I took a flight last week where there was an awful lot of seat swapping going on. I was asked if I would swap with someone who wanted to sit beside their relation, I declined because it would have meant swapping from an aisle seat to a middle seat but the cabin crew facilitated by asking several other people to move around so these people (who hadn't actually paid for allocated seating) could be accommodated.
There's no chance they'd be able to find out who was sitting where without contacting every single person who was on the flight if the need arose.

I guess they will start to strictly enforce 'no seat swapping' worldwide.

cson · 05-03-2020 5:30am

maninasia wrote: »

Don't underestimate the impact of this deadly virus.

It's not just 'greater' it's a magnitude more deadly!
It has a death rate ten times higher than the worst flu and it's also far more infectious. Again this is NOT the flu it is a different virus. It's actually SARS 2.0. The only saving grace is it doesn't seem to severely impact young children and it doesn't kill as many people as SARS 1.0.

If it spreads rapidly it completely degrades local hospitals ability to function properly . Whole cities can and are being shut down. The rate that it can spread is incredible if you follow the cases where it got out of control in Italy and Korea.

Italy and Korea went from one case to thousands of cases in a few weeks !

This is because humans do not seem to have acquired any immunity to this strain of coronavirus . Basically you have a high probability to be infected if you spend more than 15 mins in close proximity to somebody who has the virus (or at least has somebody who has already developed symptoms). You can look up the case of the attorney in New York and what happened there to his friends and family if you are not convinced!

The world has 6 billion people and 3k have died (mainly ill and elderly) from this to date since it got going in December. To your own point, SARS killed ~800 people. The mortality rate, right now, is statistically insignificant. More people died in road accidents over the weekend than have contracted this virus in Ireland.

So forgive me if I put my trust in statistics as opposed to gut instinct and blind panic.

NIMAN · 05-03-2020 5:32am

maninasia wrote: »

Don't underestimate the impact of this deadly virus.

It's not just 'greater' it's a magnitude more deadly!
It has a death rate ten times higher than the worst flu and it's also far more infectious. Again this is NOT the flu it is a different virus. It's actually SARS 2.0. The only saving grace is it doesn't seem to severely impact young children and it doesn't kill as many people as SARS 1.0.

If it spreads rapidly it completely degrades local hospitals ability to function properly . Whole cities can and are being shut down. The rate that it can spread is incredible if you follow the cases where it got out of control in Italy and Korea.

Italy and Korea went from one case to thousands of cases in a few weeks !

This is because humans do not seem to have acquired any immunity to this strain of coronavirus . Basically you have a high probability to be infected if you spend more than 15 mins in close proximity to somebody who has the virus (or at least has somebody who has already developed symptoms). You can look up the case of the attorney in New York and what happened there to his friends and family if you are not convinced!

I just did, and interesting.
However, the line that stood out for me in the article was this:

“We’re dealing with a coronavirus epidemic,” said Cuomo. “We have a bigger problem, which is a fear pandemic, and the anxiety here is outpacing the reality of the situation.”

The media are really ramping the fear levels on this, which isn't helping. But unfortunately in the era of 24hr news, they do love to spread the fear.

maninasia · 05-03-2020 8:55am

NIMAN wrote: »

I just did, and interesting.
However, the line that stood out for me in the article was this:

“We’re dealing with a coronavirus epidemic,” said Cuomo. “We have a bigger problem, which is a fear pandemic, and the anxiety here is outpacing the reality of the situation.”

The media are really ramping the fear levels on this, which isn't helping. But unfortunately in the era of 24hr news, they do love to spread the fear.

No matter if the media like to get hits from this, the fact is, this is the real deal.

Look at what is happening in Italy now. With just two thousand confirmed cases in Italy they say they are reaching breaking point in Lombardy. This is within one month or so of the first confirmed case. italians are still allowed to fly into Ireland with no quarantine. This is a real disaster waiting to happen.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/italy-to-spend-3point6-billion-euros-to-help-virus-hit-economy.html

Coil Kilcrea · 05-03-2020 10:16am

cson wrote: »

2001 is vastly different from 2020.

The scaremongering over this flu is insane. It's quite literally a self induced global recession.

I agree on the hysteria potential and agree we can scare ourselves into economic chaos but I stop short at listening to anything Eddie Hobbs says.....

Blut2 · 05-03-2020 1:24pm

600k people die from the "normal" influenza/flu each year, and we don't panic about it all. Its never even mentioned.

This current crisis is currently sitting at 3k presently. It could kill 200 times that in this calendar year and still be no more dangerous than the flu is in an average year. Its completely overblown, the media chasing views/clicks is responsible for a lot of this.

If someone wants to engage in paranoia and self isolate like a hermit thats perfectly fine, its their life choice. But major transport infrastructure like international flights should under no circumstances be shut down for the sake of irrational media driven panic.

Tenger · 05-03-2020 1:36pm

maninasia wrote: »

No matter if the media like to get hits from this, the fact is, this is the real deal.

I would agree. This virus has the potential to be more dangerous than the normal flu.

Coupled with a global economy which has a far larger reliance on Asia than it did in 2002. A larger portion of the aviation sector is in Asia than there was 18 years ago.

But at the same time I do think the reaction by the public is overblown. (fuelled by media outlets and social media)
Small changes to behaviour can lower chance of infection.
But governments need to put policies in place to combat the inevitable spread and the ensure treatment is there for all cases.

This virus WILL spread globally. An article in the Lancet last week estimates 40% of world population will have been infected in 12 months time. So similar to the 'normal' flu once you give it time.

hots · 05-03-2020 1:56pm

Blut2 wrote: »

600k people die from the "normal" influenza/flu each year, and we don't panic about it all. Its never even mentioned.

This current crisis is currently sitting at 3k presently. It could kill 200 times that in this calendar year and still be no more dangerous than the flu is in an average year. Its completely overblown, the media chasing views/clicks is responsible for a lot of this.

If someone wants to engage in paranoia and self isolate like a hermit thats perfectly fine, its their life choice. But major transport infrastructure like international flights should under no circumstances be shut down for the sake of irrational media driven panic.

If this was to spread to the same rate as /normal/ flu, we'd be looking at millions dead and no cure/vaccine. There's a heap of fearmongering but some measures to stop it spreading seem to be fairly sensible.

TomSweeney · 05-03-2020 2:35pm

maninasia wrote: »

Don't underestimate the impact of this deadly virus.

It's not just 'greater' it's a magnitude more deadly!
It has a death rate ten times higher than the worst flu and it's also far more infectious. Again this is NOT the flu it is a different virus. It's actually SARS 2.0. The only saving grace is it doesn't seem to severely impact young children and it doesn't kill as many people as SARS 1.0.

If it spreads rapidly it completely degrades local hospitals ability to function properly . Whole cities can and are being shut down. The rate that it can spread is incredible if you follow the cases where it got out of control in Italy and Korea.

Italy and Korea went from one case to thousands of cases in a few weeks !

This is because humans do not seem to have acquired any immunity to this strain of coronavirus . Basically you have a high probability to be infected if you spend more than 15 mins in close proximity to somebody who has the virus (or at least has somebody who has already developed symptoms). You can look up the case of the attorney in New York and what happened there to his friends and family if you are not convinced!

Wrong, it's actually less infectious.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained – which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That’s why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach.

Nijmegen · 05-03-2020 2:36pm

On the impact I'm not sure it's productive for us to hold the well worn debate on how serious it is. Sufficed to say, the economic knock on is real for a variety of reasons.

I guess the question now is really what will occur to the aviation industry afterwards, given that we are likely to now see a prolonged period of lower travel (a) caused by the virus and (b) potentially by a virus-linked recession. More consolidation, higher fares?

TomSweeney · 05-03-2020 2:52pm

Nijmegen wrote: »

On the impact I'm not sure it's productive for us to hold the well worn debate on how serious it is. Sufficed to say, the economic knock on is real for a variety of reasons.

I guess the question now is really what will occur to the aviation industry afterwards, given that we are likely to now see a prolonged period of lower travel (a) caused by the virus and (b) potentially by a virus-linked recession. More consolidation, higher fares?

The first SARS outbreak had a huge effect on aviation in Asia, but it bounced back quickly in about 6 months - now I know this illness is far more widespread...

Tenger · 05-03-2020 3:05pm

I think it will have a longer impact than 6 months.
Based on aviation being a bigger sector in Asia than back in 2002.
Good news is that a vaccine should be in sight by end of year (for the next winter season) If it does as predicted and infects a large portion of the population we will see people developing immunity (as with the normal flu) The panic should hopefully subside once people see the reality.

So I do think this time next year the upswing will return.

In aviation terms we may see; faster than expected retirement of B747s and A380s.
Maybe deferment or cancellation of A350/B777x orders, perhaps in favour of cheaper options in the A330neo/B773 or the A321LRs?

My mate lives in Seattle (9 deaths so far near him) He says the panic buying is off the scale. CostCo ran out of toilet roll!!!

IngazZagni · 05-03-2020 3:28pm

billy few mates wrote: »

One move airlines should seriously consider is absolutely insisting that passengers remain in their allocated seats once they board the aircraft in case there are any cases where the patient travelled by air and they need to contact the passengers who were seated near them.
On the radio the other day the health minister said that they only contacted the passengers in the couple of seat rows around where the victim was seated.
I took a flight last week where there was an awful lot of seat swapping going on. I was asked if I would swap with someone who wanted to sit beside their relation, I declined because it would have meant swapping from an aisle seat to a middle seat but the cabin crew facilitated by asking several other people to move around so these people (who hadn't actually paid for allocated seating) could be accommodated.
There's no chance they'd be able to find out who was sitting where without contacting every single person who was on the flight if the need arose.

Very difficult to implement in reality.

There was a review into a SARS infected person on a flight and where he sat. While more people sitting near him did contract SARS, there were also people sitting at the other end of the plane that also contracted it from that flight.

Gaoth Laidir · 05-03-2020 4:47pm

maninasia wrote: »

No matter if the media like to get hits from this, the fact is, this is the real deal.

Look at what is happening in Italy now. With just two thousand confirmed cases in Italy they say they are reaching breaking point in Lombardy. This is within one month or so of the first confirmed case. italians are still allowed to fly into Ireland with no quarantine. This is a real disaster waiting to happen.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/italy-to-spend-3point6-billion-euros-to-help-virus-hit-economy.html

3089 as of last night, and still that number today. 107 deaths, 246 recovered. Death rate: 3.46%.

billy few mates · 05-03-2020 5:05pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

Very difficult to implement in reality.

There was a review into a SARS infected person on a flight and where he sat. While more people sitting near him did contract SARS, there were also people sitting at the other end of the plane that also contracted it from that flight.

Well if the government have decided they're only going to contact the people who were seated in the the two adjacent rows to the victim instead of alerting all the passengers who were on the affected flight it's more important than ever that the airlines find a way to implement and enforce a rule like this.

Tenger · 05-03-2020 6:45pm

Australia are publicly announcing the dates and flight numbers on which a confirmed case travelled into the country. (5 flights named so far)
Seems like a better option to me.

GM228 · 05-03-2020 7:37pm

Ingrid Miley just on the 6:1 news saying she heard that AL is possibly looking at reducing staff to part time working.

billy few mates · 05-03-2020 7:54pm

Tenger wrote: »

Australia are publicly announcing the dates and flight numbers on which a confirmed case travelled into the country. (5 flights named so far)
Seems like a better option to me.

Definitely, I'd rather be made aware immediately if I'd been on the same flight rather than delayed or missed out altogether because they have no idea who was sitting where, particularly as they're only sharing the information with a very small number of passengers.
They should either inform everyone who was on the flight or ensure the airlines can accurately inform them who was sitting where.

trellheim · 05-03-2020 7:58pm

Is EI and FR going quiet as well beyond the italian flights - any numbers people speculating on ?

Locker10a · 05-03-2020 8:25pm

billy few mates wrote: »

Definitely, I'd rather be made aware immediately if I'd been on the same flight rather than delayed or missed out altogether because they have no idea who was sitting where, particularly as they're only sharing the information with a very small number of passengers.
They should either inform everyone who was on the flight or ensure the airlines can accurately inform them who was sitting where.

What about people getting up going to the toilets !? On an all economy flight Anyone from any row number can use any toilet... taps, door handles etc could be contaminated yes it’s unlikely but people will get up and move around to use the toilet you can’t ban that too

billy few mates · 05-03-2020 9:40pm

Locker10a wrote: »

What about people getting up going to the toilets !? On an all economy flight Anyone from any row number can use any toilet... taps, door handles etc could be contaminated yes it’s unlikely but people will get up and move around to use the toilet you can’t ban that too

While that's also a risk, according to expert advice it's prolonged contact of greater than fifteen minutes with a sufferer that's the real risk.
You can decide not to use the toilet onboard (I can't remember the last time I used an aircraft toilet) or you can ensure you sanitise your hands and everything around you when you're finished but there's not a lot you can do if you end up sitting beside an infected person.
Once a case is confirmed everybody who was on that flight should be informed, not just the few people the airline 'think' might have been sitting near the victim.

maninasia · 06-03-2020 2:17am

TomSweeney wrote: »

Wrong, it's actually less infectious.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

Look at the weasel wording from the WHO to prevent panic.

WHO quote
**Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.**

They say the death rate from Covid is approx 3.4%. The death rate from flu is less than 1%.

Actually the death rate is at LEAST ten times higher for Covid than flu! Flu estimated death rates are just 0.1%.

maninasia · 06-03-2020 2:20am

TomSweeney wrote: »

Wrong, it's actually less infectious.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

It's far more infectious what are you waffling about . We have no herd immunity to this virus. The WHO saying that this virus 'transmits less efficiently ' is complete bull****. .Again there is NO herd immunity to this virus. You will easily contract it if in close contact with an infected person for more than 15 mins.

Flu R value is 1.3
Covid R value is 2 to 3

JAMA study late Feb

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762510

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

I live in Asia and also lived through SARS here and have followed the situation in Wuhan closely since the beginning. Many of you probably think that China's medical services are very poor , but that's not the case in Wuhan (it's a rich city with modern hospitals ) . They have the latest equioment and well trained medics. They still got completely overwhelmed due to the large numbers of critical patients coming through....

Inquitus · 06-03-2020 2:32am

maninasia wrote: »

It's far more infectious what are you waffling about . We have no herd immunity to this virus.

Flu R value is 1.3
Covid R value is 3

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

I live in Asia and also lived through SARS here and have followed the situation in Wuhan closely since the beginning. Many of you probably think that China's medical services are very poor , but that's not the case in Wuhan (it's a rich city with modern hospitals ) . They have the latest equioment and well trained medics. They still got completely overwhelmed due to the large numbers of critical patients coming through....

Indeed and we Irish are not good a following "voluntary" rules, the youngsters asked to self isolate have been out hanging around, shopping and the like. Only a totalitarian state like China can actually force people to do the "right" thing, and that's never going to happen here. Nor can we knock out a new 1000+ bed hospital in 2 weeks!

maninasia · 06-03-2020 2:36am

Inquitus wrote: »

Indeed and we Irish are not good a following "voluntary" rules, the youngsters asked to self isolate have been out hanging around, shopping and the like. Only a totalitarian state like China can actually force people to do the "right" thing, and that's never going to happen here. Nor can we knock out a new 1000+ bed hospital in 2 weeks!

Not true regarding the need to be totalitarian .

Many other countries that are democracies in Asia are enforcing home quarantine of large numbers of people right now. Taiwan, Korea , Japan, Singapore (not a democracy) etc. All it takes are random calls to the house, fines if not in compliance and local peer pressure too etc.
Taiwan and Singapore have been very successful in controlling the virus because they enacted strict measures early on.

Hotblack Desiato · 06-03-2020 11:51am

Blut2 wrote: »

600k people die from the "normal" influenza/flu each year, and we don't panic about it all. Its never even mentioned.

You don't remember the bird flu concerns from a few years back?
You can vaccinate against the flu, and many people will have at least partial immunity to what's going around. It's only when a totally new strain of flu emerges that there's real concern. The death rate from flu is far less, the totals are only so high because it's so infectious. Most people who die from it are already seriously ill. So the prospect of (a) a large proportion of the population being quite ill at once, with very disruptive effects, or (b) a significant number of otherwise healthy people dying, appears to be much less with flu. It's also something we know about, are familiar with and many of us will have had already.

If someone wants to engage in paranoia and self isolate like a hermit thats perfectly fine, its their life choice. But major transport infrastructure like international flights should under no circumstances be shut down for the sake of irrational media driven panic.

I agree, but we have the opportunity to prevent coronavirus from becoming endemic and we should be stringent about isolating cases and contacts.

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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