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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 21 December, 2013

    ALERT for heavy thunder and hail showers moving rapidly through south central and southeast counties now to 0930h. Applies to most counties in southeast quadrant. Watch for updates. Forecast will be added shortly, no major changes, still some uncertainty on how severe winds may become Monday night into Tuesday with some risk of damage.

    Winter solstice, or the Sun's lowest declination, takes place at 5:13 p.m. today. Although climatological and weather forum winter started on the first of December, astronomical winter starts today. Which is better? Actually, the coldest and warmest 91 days would see the seasons starting on the 10th or thereabouts, of the months currently used. So it's almost a draw.

    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Windy and squally with passing showers of rain or hail with some thunder mainly in southeast, turning to sleet or snow on high ground later in the day, as temperatures fall slowly to afternoon readings 5-8 C then evening values of 3-5 C. Winds veering more westerly at about 60-100 km/hr.

    TONIGHT ... Showers may become mostly wintry as temperatures fall to around 1-2 C, some accumulations especially in higher terrain (2-4 cms), icy sections may develop on roads. Winds somewhat reduced at W 30-50 km/hr, giving a wind chill of about -3 C.

    SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain, breezy then becoming very windy again later, SW 60-100 km/hr in exposed regions of west and north, otherwise 70-100 km/hr. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-10 C.

    MONDAY ... Very windy from about mid-day to late evening or early Tuesday, the morning mixed wintry showers will become mostly rain with hail and possible thunder, winds increasing to at least SW 80-120 km/hr with severe and damaging gusts possible to 140 km/hr in exposed locations (Connacht, west Ulster most at risk), morning lows 2 to 5 C and highs near 10 C. For more detailed discussion, be sure to visit the storm thread, basically the chances seem about 50-50 in terms of a minor damage or more substantial damage potential and we are definitely looking at a very deep low that some model runs have below 930 mbs in Donegal Bay by late Monday. The worst case scenario is for wind gusts to 170 km/hr west coast and 140 km/hr further inland, and coastal flooding potential, but these outcomes are by no means certain and the least extreme that I could foresee would be 110 km/hr maximum gusts, so there is quite a range. Stay tuned.

    TUESDAY ... Continued very windy at least in north, although slight to substantial improvements by afternoon (WSW 50-80 km/hr, still quite blustery), frequent showers, lows near 4 C and highs 6 to 9 C. Wintry showers only expected on high ground but could be frequent there with 3-5 cm accumulations. Hail and non-accumulating snow showers are possible at lower elevations too. Some thunder is likely with these in western counties.

    WED (Christmas Day) ... Variable cloud, showers, breezy, possibly stronger winds developing by evening, lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C. Wintry showers possible but mostly on higher ground. On some models the day is actually not that bad compared to all around it, perhaps that's appropriate enough ... there could even be some relatively benign intervals as a weak ridge of high pressure tries to break up the parade of deep lows.

    THURSDAY (St Stephens Day) ... At this point yet another windy day seems likely with periods of rain in southwest gales, highs 8-10 C. Note that the ECM model has now downgraded this storm while others have not, but the downgrade is to a fairly windy, rainy and colder day near 5 C so maybe more like a shift in emphasis than a downgrade.

    OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat colder with increasing chances of wintry precipitation and near-freezing temperatures towards New Years, however there is some chance of a continuation of the current mix of temperatures with the odd milder day thrown in. Eventually a less active but colder regime is likely to replace this super-charged turbo situation.

    Forecasts for Britain

    Most of the above details will apply to Britain's forecasts although each storm will arrive about a half day later on average, so that Monday will not be as stormy as Tuesday there. Scotland could see extreme wind gusts 120-160 km/hr by early Tuesday as the deep low moves past the northwest coasts. Conditions in most of England and Wales will likely be a little less extreme than in Ireland with the stronger winds heading more for the north of Britain in most cases. Snow potential in Britain will also be largely confined to higher elevations than most weather stations and the population, but could disrupt some travel in the Lake District, Wales and Scotland.


    Forecasts for North America

    The weekend will become rather messy in the Midwest and Great Lakes due to a slow-moving frontal system with bands of snow, freezing rain and rain from north to south, and quite a wide contrast in temperatures, as 10-15 C readings move into the Ohio valley and later towards NYC, NJ and PA, 20 C likely in Washington DC Sunday, after a foggy 14 C today. Heavy rainfalls will spread into the south central states turning to freezing rain from Oklahoma to western and north-central Illinois. Meanwhile, relatively cold in most of western Canada with snow or cold drizzly rain along the coast and further snow in the mountains, 5-10 cm in most cases as this is a rather weak system. My local weather on Friday brought 5-7 cms of snow by mid-morning, some slight melting in drizzle and 2 C temps by afternoon, but very slippery on slushy side streets and sidewalks (i.e. pavements, as you may know, over here pavement is a term used for asphalt or even concrete roadway).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 22 December, 2013

    Forecasts for Ireland

    ALERT for severe wind gust potential mid-day Monday to late Tuesday, details may remain somewhat uncertain until tomorrow but there is a high potential for gusts exceeding 130 km/hr, most likely during the overnight hours Monday-Tuesday, and more likely in Connacht and Ulster, west Munster, although some scenarios show the south coast more at risk.

    TODAY ... Variable cloud, passing wintry showers becoming more confined to higher terrain by afternoon, followed by periods of rain sweeping in from west during the afternoon, breezy then becoming very windy again later, from the southwest at 60-100 km/hr in exposed regions of west and north, otherwise 50-80 km/hr. Highs 7-10 C.

    TONIGHT ... Windy with periods of rain, strong S to SW winds developing near south coast 70-110 km/hr, temperatures steady near 7 C and possibly rising to near 10 C in some areas. Somewhat colder across the north in mixed wintry showers over higher terrain, lows 2-5 C.

    MONDAY into MONDAY NIGHT ... Very windy from about mid-day to late evening or early Tuesday, the morning mixed wintry showers (north) will become mostly rain already underway across south, with hail and possible thunder in all regions, winds increasing to at least SW 80-120 km/hr with severe and damaging gusts possible to 150 km/hr in exposed locations (Connacht, west Ulster most at risk), morning lows 2 to 5 C and highs near 10 C.

    Holding to this outlook for now ... For more detailed discussion, be sure to visit the storm thread, basically the chances seem about 50-50 in terms of a minor damage or more substantial damage potential and we are definitely looking at a very deep low that some model runs have below 930 mbs in Donegal Bay by late Monday. The worst case scenario is for wind gusts to 170 km/hr west coast and 140 km/hr further inland, and coastal flooding potential, but these outcomes are by no means certain and the least extreme that I could foresee would be 110 km/hr maximum gusts, so there is quite a range. Stay tuned. Storm surge potential will exist if wind gusts exceed 130 km/hr but fortunately this event falls between full and new moons, at "neap" tides so there is room to add a metre to tidal values before we get to the situation seen last Wednesday in Galway Bay.

    TUESDAY ... Continued very windy at least in north with severe gusts to 130 km/hr (possibly higher if storm lingers or loops back around for a second swipe), although slight to substantial improvements by afternoon (WSW 50-80 km/hr, still quite blustery), frequent showers, morning lows near 4 C and highs 6 to 9 C. Wintry showers only expected mostly on higher ground but could be frequent there with 3-5 cm accumulations. Hail and non-accumulating snow showers are possible at lower elevations too. Some thunder is likely with these in western counties.

    WEDNESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Variable cloud, some welcome sunny intervals, morning showers or sleety rain should clear north and east, then more isolated showers, breezy although nowhere near as windy according to current guidance, with possibly stronger winds developing by evening, lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C near sea level, but 1 to 5 on higher terrain.

    THURSDAY (St Stephens Day) and FRIDAY 27th ... At this point yet another very windy day or two seems likely with periods of rain in southwest gales, highs 8-10 C. Once again we are seeing a range of outcomes between a moderately stormy wind gust maximum of 100 km/hr to a severe storm reaching 150 km/hr. The chances of severe impacts are somewhat greater for the south than the north in much of the current guidance.

    OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat colder with increasing chances of wintry precipitation and near-freezing temperatures towards New Years, no definite signs of accumulating snow at lower elevations yet, but likely to come and go with perhaps one brief return to milder conditions just before New Years Eve.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY will be windy and cold with passing squally showers, some wintry especially in west and north. Highs 5-8 C.

    TONIGHT and MONDAY will see very strong southwest winds at times with periods of rain, temperatures generally 8-10 C.

    MONDAY NIGHT and TUESDAY the expected severe windstorm will make its presence known in at least Scotland and northern England with severe gusts to 150 km/hr quite possible, driving rain and mountain snow, temperatures about 3-6 C. Further south this stormy interval could be more moderate with gusts to 110 km/hr and passing showers, temperatures 6-9 C.

    CHRISTMAS DAY may remain quite windy to stormy in Scotland as the deep low lingers off the northwest coast. Otherwise, most of England and Wales should have a somewhat improved day with sunny intervals, passing showers and much reduced winds of only 30-50 km/hr. Highs ranging from 4 C in Scotland to 9 or 10 C in southeast England.

    Beyond that, a similar forecast to Ireland, with high risk of a second severe wind storm arriving late 26th and lasting through the 27th. Winds could gust above 120 km/hr in southwest England or further north depending on exact track.

    Forecasts for North America

    The storm that is expected in Ireland on Monday night has formed over eastern Canada and is the leading wave of the complex freezing rain and snow event covering much of the northeast, Great Lakes and Midwest U.S. .... The second and currently much stronger part of this complex is now around Indiana moving towards upstate New York tonight, then barrelling east over Christmas to arrive near Ireland on the night of the 26th-27th. This storm is bringing heavy, flooding rainfalls to the Ohio valley (125 mm at Paducah, KY) and massive freezing rain to parts of Michigan and southern Ontario (some accretions of 3 cm reported near Kingston, Ontario at eastern end of Lake Ontario, almost that bad near Toronto). This storm will likely continue all day but freezing rain will tend to become mostly snow later, while some of the ordinary rain will change to freezing rain in parts of NY and northern New England. The east coast will have one more very mild day (highs near 20 C) then a burst of sleet, snow and -5 C by Monday (!) ... central states are seeing snow this morning but it will clear later, quite cold although the main thrust of the next cold wave is more towards the Great Lakes and east coast. Further west, it is turning slowly milder in stages, with light rain or drizzle near the coast. ... My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with a high near 5 C, and our recent snow cover is slowly thawing.

    _______________

    I hope to update the storm forecast around 5-6 p.m., after reviewing the 12z model guidance. But meanwhile, the storm discussion thread will have a wealth of views including the intermediate updates from 06z (those should be digested by about 10:00 but yours truly will be sleeping through that one).

    Because of these severe storms, it's fortunate that I already decided not to travel this Christmas holiday so I should be able to maintain a daily forecast schedule, maybe if it calms down by New Years ... oh forget about that, there's a new moon at perigee on 1st of January.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 23 December, 2013

    ALERT for strong winds south coast counties this morning, winds SSW 70 to 110 km/hr with potential gusts to 130 km/hr in a few locations, easing mid-day, remnants may produce gusts near 100 km/hr in Dublin later ... ALERT for squally showers of rain or hail both morning and afternoon. The afternoon squalls may produce wind gusts to 130 km/hr in central counties from west to east, and this front will be followed by sharply colder conditions and mixed wintry showers, snow on hills. ADVANCE ALERT for very strong winds tonight and Tuesday in many parts of north and west, SW 100-140 km/hr, potential for some structural damage, tree damage and power failures. These storm force winds are somewhat less likely to reach east and will be more marginal near south coast (80-120 km/hr) but still having some damage potential. Also an ADVANCE ALERT is warranted by risk of another severe storm in many parts of Ireland on the night of 26-27 December possibly lasting well into the day on the 27th. See forecasts for further details.

    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Becoming very windy this morning in the south (S-SW 80-110 km/hr) and from about mid-day more generally across the country (SW 70-100 km/hr with higher gusts), periods of rain and possible embedded thunder, with 15-30 mm accumulations ... a squall line is likely to develop late afternoon and race east with squally thunderstorms, hail and gusts to 130 km/hr in a few locations (110 km/hr more generally). Highs today 11-12 C except near 9 C in parts of the north. Temperatures will fall sharply after the squall line passes.

    TONIGHT ... Becoming very windy in west Munster, Connacht and Ulster, WSW 100-130 km/hr with severe gusts possible to 150 km/hr in exposed locations (Connacht, west Ulster most at risk), rest of the country also quite windy but possibly not into these extreme values at SW 60-100 km/hr, however, south coast could also see local gusts above 120 km/hr. By morning lows falling to about 1 to 4 C and many of the passing squally showers will be increasingly wintry with 3-5 cm accumulations likely on higher terrain (above 200 m asl).

    TUESDAY ... Continued very windy at least in north and parts of west, with severe gusts to 130 km/hr (possibly higher if storm lingers), although slight to substantial improvements by afternoon (across parts of south and east, WSW 50-80 km/hr, still quite blustery), frequent showers, highs 6 to 9 C. Wintry showers only expected to linger past mid-day on higher ground but could be frequent there with 3-5 cm further accumulations. Hail and non-accumulating snow showers are possible at lower elevations too. Some thunder is likely with these in western counties. At this time we expect the strongest winds to arrive in the early morning hours and last to mid-afternoon.

    WEDNESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Variable cloud, some welcome sunny intervals, morning showers or sleety rain should clear north and east, then more isolated showers, breezy although nowhere near as windy according to current guidance, with possibly stronger winds developing by evening, lows between -2 and 3 C and highs near 8 C near sea level, but 1 to 5 on some higher terrain because of snow cover there. While not a perfect day, this should be a much improved day and suitable for travel with caution required mainly in higher stretches of long-distance roads.

    THURSDAY (St Stephens Day) and FRIDAY 27th ... Another very windy day or two seems likely with periods of rain in southwest gales, highs 8-10 C. Once again we are seeing a range of outcomes between a moderately stormy wind gust maximum of 100 km/hr to a severe storm reaching 150 km/hr. The chances of severe impacts are somewhat greater for the south than the north in much of the current guidance, or at least the effects will be spread out more equally than today's and Tuesday's event.

    OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat colder with increasing chances of wintry precipitation and near-freezing temperatures towards New Years, no definite signs of accumulating snow at lower elevations yet, but likely to come and go with perhaps one brief return to milder conditions just before New Years Eve.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY will see very strong south to southwest winds at times (70-110 km/hr) with periods of rain, temperatures generally 8-10 C.

    TONIGHT will become squally with rain and thunder, and very windy (WSW 80-120 km/hr) with squally wintry showers to follow. Lows 4-7 C.

    LATE MONDAY NIGHT and TUESDAY the expected severe windstorm will make its presence known in at least Scotland and northern England with severe gusts to 150 km/hr quite possible, driving rain and mountain snow, temperatures about 3-6 C. Further south this stormy interval could be more moderate with gusts to 110 km/hr and passing showers, temperatures 6-9 C.

    CHRISTMAS DAY may remain quite windy to stormy in Scotland as the deep low lingers off the northwest coast. Otherwise, most of England and Wales should have a somewhat improved day with sunny intervals, passing showers and much reduced winds of only 30-50 km/hr. Highs ranging from 4 C in Scotland to 9 or 10 C in southeast England.

    Beyond that, a similar forecast to Ireland, with high risk of a second severe wind storm arriving late 26th and lasting through the 27th. Winds could gust above 120 km/hr in southwest England or further north depending on exact track.

    Forecasts for North America

    It's easy to say "colder today" for eastern states because Sunday set new daily and even monthly record highs. It will stay near or above 10 C for the morning hours then slide down towards 5 C later, with low cloud and drizzle setting in after a bright start to the day. Further west and north many are now trying to recover from a crippling ice storm that has knocked out power in many parts of Ontario and upstate New York, and a few parts of Michigan. These areas will see slowly falling temperatures and light snow at times, then clearing and very cold tonight. This very cold air mass is firmly entrenched over central Canada and will keep the eastern prairies and northern plains colder than -20 C while western regions become milder with snow in places, rain on the coast. My local weather on Sunday was foggy and rather mild with the last of the snow melting slowly, highs near 7 C.

    Check for updates to storm forecasts in the storm discussion thread, my own update may not appear here until 8-10 p.m. and there could be new information before then from other Boards forecasting sources.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Monday, 23 December, 2013 _ 7:40 p.m.
    ________________________________________________

    Expect winds to increase gradually in most locations now to midnight with some squally showers (including hail and thunder) developing in several lines moving generally eastward, some local gusts to 100 km/hr with these, otherwise the evening winds should remain 50-80 km/hr for most.

    As the deep, complex low offshore forms a most active centre closer to Mayo tonight, winds are likely to increase to storm force from Kerry north to Mayo and spread to Sligo and Donegal later in the night. Expect southwest winds in this region to reach sustained 110 km/hr with gusts to 140 km/hr and possibly higher in a few exposed locations. Some damage is possible and water levels at high tides could reach 1.5m above predicted values.

    This windstorm will tend to rage on with peaks and troughs for about twelve hours or so, and will slowly abate late afternoon and evening (evening to early morning 25th in north Ulster).

    Further east, there may be occasional severe gusts but winds are likely to stay in a 70-110 km/hr range for most. A few places like Cork and Limerick are more transitional and could see peak gusts of 125 km/hr.

    With the onset of much stronger winds, colder air will be arriving but it has to circulate a long way around over 10-12 C ocean water so that temperatures may tend to fall only slightly near sea level, while falling more noticeably inland over terrain above 200m -- then once any snow cover is established there, the cooling process will be reinforced. Tomorrow is likely to see fast-moving wintry showers of all types of precipitation at lower elevations and blizzard-like snow in some higher stretches of long-distance road travel, and snow is quite likely in all hilly terrain.

    The current prospects for the second storm on the 27th remain troubling but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, meanwhile, stay safe, avoid unnecessary travel in general and any travel in the outlined western counties during the period midnight to 4 p.m., and have a Merry Christmas regardless. -- MT Cranium, thanks to Boards weather forum members for their assistance as these forecasts tend to reflect a group effort taking place over on the storm thread. However, this is my own call and others may have somewhat different forecasts to offer, so check that out too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Monday, 23 December, 2013 _ 7:40 p.m.
    ________________________________________________

    Expect winds to increase gradually in most locations now to midnight with some squally showers (including hail and thunder) developing in several lines moving generally eastward, some local gusts to 100 km/hr with these, otherwise the evening winds should remain 50-80 km/hr for most.

    As the deep, complex low offshore forms a most active centre closer to Mayo tonight, winds are likely to increase to storm force from Kerry north to Mayo and spread to Sligo and Donegal later in the night. Expect southwest winds in this region to reach sustained 110 km/hr with gusts to 140 km/hr and possibly higher in a few exposed locations. Some damage is possible and water levels at high tides could reach 1.5m above predicted values.

    This windstorm will tend to rage on with peaks and troughs for about twelve hours or so, and will slowly abate late afternoon and evening (evening to early morning 25th in north Ulster).

    Further east, there may be occasional severe gusts but winds are likely to stay in a 70-110 km/hr range for most. A few places like Cork and Limerick are more transitional and could see peak gusts of 125 km/hr.

    With the onset of much stronger winds, colder air will be arriving but it has to circulate a long way around over 10-12 C ocean water so that temperatures may tend to fall only slightly near sea level, while falling more noticeably inland over terrain above 200m -- then once any snow cover is established there, the cooling process will be reinforced. Tomorrow is likely to see fast-moving wintry showers of all types of precipitation at lower elevations and blizzard-like snow in some higher stretches of long-distance road travel, and snow is quite likely in all hilly terrain.

    The current prospects for the second storm on the 27th remain troubling but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, meanwhile, stay safe, avoid unnecessary travel in general and any travel in the outlined western counties during the period midnight to 4 p.m., and have a Merry Christmas regardless. -- MT Cranium, thanks to Boards weather forum members for their assistance as these forecasts tend to reflect a group effort taking place over on the storm thread. However, this is my own call and others may have somewhat different forecasts to offer, so check that out too.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 24 December, 2013

    ALERT for snow, hail and some icy or slippery roads mostly in higher portions of the inland south, west and north, but with some possibility of occurring almost anywhere as wintry showers develop in squally clusters. ALERT maintained for strong winds across most of north and west today. The storm is currently consolidating and a few areas of Connacht can expect a period of reduced gusts followed by a renewed burst of 80-120 km/hr winds from a more westerly direction. This cycle will show up a bit later over Donegal and parts of Ulster. Eventually the strongest wind gusts of the event will develop around mid-day across the north and parts of the west. By this time winds across the south will have died down to moderate levels and some parts of the east may never see any strong gusts due to a weaker gradient and blocking by the Dublin and Wicklow mountains. ADVANCE ALERT is maintained for a very strong windstorm potential on the night of 26-27 December lasting well into the day Friday 27th.

    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Continued very windy at least in north and parts of west, with severe WSW winds 80-120 km/hr at times, with a few gusts to 130 km/hr, although slight to substantial improvements by afternoon (across parts of south and east, WSW 50-80 km/hr, still quite blustery), frequent showers, highs 6 to 9 C. Wintry showers only expected to linger past mid-day on higher ground but could be frequent there with 3-5 cm further accumulations. Some higher locations may see highs or at least mid-day temperatures near 3 C. Hail and non-accumulating snow showers are possible at lower elevations too. Some thunder is likely with these in western counties.

    TONIGHT into WEDNESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Overnight, very strong winds will gradually ease across Ulster to westerly 50-80 km/hr. Elsewhere, only moderate westerly winds of 30-50 km/hr. Passing showers of rain, sleet or snow but some dry intervals, lows -2 to +3 C. On Christmas Day, variable cloud, some welcome sunny intervals, morning showers or sleety rain should clear north and east, then more isolated showers, breezy but not as windy, with possibly stronger winds developing by evening, highs near 8 C near sea level, but 1 to 5 on some higher terrain because of snow cover there. While not a perfect day, this should be a much improved day and suitable for travel with caution required mainly in higher stretches of long-distance roads.

    THURSDAY (St Stephens Day) will start frosty in some inland areas and some sunshine will last into early afternoon, then more frequent cloudy intervals, morning lows -2 to +2 C and highs 7-9 C.

    THURSDAY NIGHT into FRIDAY 27th ... Another very windy day or two seems likely with periods of rain in southwest gales, highs 8-12 C. Once again we are seeing a range of outcomes between a moderately stormy wind gust maximum of 100 km/hr to a severe storm reaching 150 km/hr. The chances of severe impacts are somewhat greater for the south than the north in much of the current guidance, or at least the effects will be spread out more equally than today's and Tuesday's event. In general this now looks like a more severe event than either the last one or the current storm.

    OUTLOOK ... There are indications of yet another windy day on Monday 30th, then turning somewhat colder with increasing chances of wintry precipitation and near-freezing temperatures towards New Years Day.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY the expected severe windstorm will make its presence known in at least Scotland and northern England with severe gusts to 130 km/hr quite possible, combined with driving rain and mountain snow, temperatures about 3-6 C. Further south this stormy interval could be more moderate with gusts to 110 km/hr and passing showers, temperatures 6-9 C.

    CHRISTMAS DAY may remain quite windy to stormy in Scotland as the deep low lingers off the northwest coast. Otherwise, most of England and Wales should have a somewhat improved day with sunny intervals, passing showers and much reduced winds of only 30-50 km/hr. Highs ranging from 4 C in Scotland to 9 or 10 C in southeast England.

    Beyond that, a similar forecast to Ireland, with high risk of a second severe wind storm arriving late 26th and lasting through the 27th. Winds could gust above 120 km/hr in southwest England or further north depending on exact track.

    Forecasts for North America

    Temperatures are going from one extreme (mild on the weekend) to the other (very cold today) in the eastern U.S., Great Lakes, Midwest and Ohio valley regions. Highs of only -5 C are likely around the east coast and -15 C inland. Turning somewhat milder across the northern plains and prairies with 10-15 cm snowfalls in many locations, also rather mild further west although rather close to average at 7-9 C on the coast, 2-4 C inland. My local weather on Monday was cloudy with afternoon sunny intervals and mild, highs near 10 C.

    Merry Christmas to all -- MTC


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, Christmas Day, 25 December 2013

    ALERT for extreme weather event ... very gusty winds and heavy rain will combine to make travel very unadvisable by late tomorrow in the west and south, and by late evening in the east and north. After that, stormy conditions are likely to persist for most of Friday 27th before some improvements late in the day. We can't control what the models do from now to storm onset time, but at this time all of them are indicating the potential for severe wind gusts to 140 km/hr and bursts of very heavy rainfall totalling 20 to 30 mm overnight. Further details and discussion both here and in the storm discussion thread.


    TODAY ... Some intervals of sunshine for most, but isolated wintry showers in south and west Kerry, and later in some parts of Connacht and Ulster. One or two other isolated showers may develop but in general it should be a dry and fairly pleasant day with mid-day highs 6-9 C except for a few higher locations over snow cover, there it may only reach 3-5 C. Winds near west and north coasts sometimes moderate at 30-50 km/hr, otherwise rather gentle winds with the occasional gust to 30-40 km/hr, all from a westerly direction.

    TONIGHT ... Dry and cold with scattered frost developing, some icy patches on roads, any leftover wintry showers could drop 1-2 cm of snow in parts of the inland west. Fog patches may develop especially near lakes and rivers.

    THURSDAY (St Stephen's Day) ... The benign start to the day with sunshine disappearing behind high cloud will gradually change to stormy conditions in the west and south, as winds rapidly increase from the SE to S at 60-100 km/hr by afternoon, and rain becomes heavy at times. This storm won't arrive in the east and north until perhaps near sunset or early evening, and the winds will increase there at that time. Highs for the day will reach 11-13 C during the evening or around midnight, but mid-afternoon readings will be closer to 7-8 C.

    THURSDAY NIGHT into FRIDAY ... Extreme storm conditions are possible, south to southwest storm force winds 100-140 km/hr with significant damage especially near coasts where battering waves could overtop some seawalls. Rainfalls of 20-35 mm may produce spot flooding and tidal conditions may also combine with the rainfall to produce urban flooding near the south and west coasts. Temperatures will be steady 11-13 C during the early morning and will then gradually fall through the day with winds more westerly, passing squally showers of rain and hail with thunder, and readings near 7 C. Snow is only likely to enter the picture over higher parts of the north by evening.

    SATURDAY ... Continuing rather windy (W 40-70 km/hr) with passing wintry showers, morning low -1 to +2 C and afternoon highs 3-7 C.

    SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Another storm is possible, this time it should be less extreme but nasty enough with rain, winds to 100 km/hr and temperatures near 10 C.

    TUESDAY to THURSDAY (the New Years period) will be windy and unsettled with a growing risk of wintry showers and snow on higher ground, temperatures sliding gradually down from near 6 C to near 2 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather cold beyond the end of next week, details are quite uncertain but I expect there to be some wintry patterns developing with some relaxation in this turbo-charged storm track being replaced by more of a north to northeast flow that could get quite cold at some point and bring a more substantial snowfall (have said all along 8-12 Jan is the best time).


    Forecasts for Britain

    The above would apply to all regions of Britain also, with isolated wintry showers becoming mostly rain showers later today, some frost overnight, a dry and calm start to Boxing Day, then rapid onset of stormy conditions by Thursday evening with Friday very stormy in all regions.


    Forecasts for North America

    The basic pattern is colder than average now and generally rather dry, with the exception of a weak snow-producing system in the upper Midwest today expected to drift across the lower Great Lakes tonight and 26th. Temperatures will range from near -10 C in the Midwest to near zero C on the east coast, and only 5-8 C in most of the southeast to 15-20 C in south Florida. The central plains are also rather cool but dry. The western regions are milder than average and some rain is likely in north-central B.C. but otherwise it should remain dry. My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy and mild with a high of about 10 C.

    Merry Christmas from MTC


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, St Stephens Day, 26 December 2013

    ALERT for extreme weather event ... very gusty winds and heavy rain will combine to make travel very unadvisable by late afternoon in the west and south, and by late evening in the east and north. After that, stormy conditions are likely to persist for most of Friday 27th before some improvements late in the day. At this time all guidance continues to indicate the potential for severe wind gusts to 140 km/hr and bursts of very heavy rainfall totalling 20 to 30 mm overnight. Further details and discussion both here and in the storm discussion thread.

    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... A cold but generally benign start to the day (other than some local black ice in a few inland regions, drive with caution), any sunshine disappearing behind high cloud, then a rapid onset of stormy conditions in the west and south, as winds rapidly increase from the SE to S at 60-100 km/hr by afternoon, and rain becomes heavy at times. This storm won't arrive in the east and north until perhaps near sunset or early evening, and the winds will increase there at that time. Highs for the day will reach 11-13 C during the evening or around midnight, but mid-afternoon readings will be closer to 7-8 C. Rain moving rapidly northeast by afternoon could become squally and thundery with gusts to 120 km/hr in any thunderstorms.

    THURSDAY NIGHT into FRIDAY ... Extreme storm conditions are possible, south to southwest storm force winds 100-140 km/hr with significant damage especially near coasts where battering waves could overtop some seawalls. Rainfalls of 20-35 mm may produce spot flooding and tidal conditions may also combine with the rainfall to produce urban flooding near the south and west coasts. Temperatures will be steady 11-13 C during the early morning and will then gradually fall through the day with winds more westerly, passing squally showers of rain and hail with thunder, and readings near 7 C. The very strong winds will continue most of the day, veering more westerly, 100-130 km/hr. Some parts of north Donegal and Derry may only get 50-80 km/hr winds and may even experience the "eye" of this storm as it moves close to Malin Head around mid-afternoon. Northwest Mayo could also have a brief lull in storm force wind gusts late morning for the same reasons. Snow is only likely to enter the picture over higher parts of the north by evening.

    SATURDAY ... Continuing rather windy (W 40-70 km/hr) with passing wintry showers, morning low -1 to +2 C and afternoon highs 3-7 C.

    SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Another storm is possible, this time it should be less extreme but nasty enough with rain, winds to 100 km/hr and temperatures near 10 C.

    TUESDAY to THURSDAY (the New Years period) will be windy and unsettled with a growing risk of wintry showers and snow on higher ground, temperatures sliding gradually down from near 6 C to near 2 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather cold beyond the end of next week, details are quite uncertain but I expect there to be some wintry patterns developing with some relaxation in this turbo-charged storm track being replaced by more of a north to northeast flow that could get quite cold at some point and bring a more substantial snowfall (have said all along 8-12 Jan is the best time).


    Forecasts for Britain

    The above would apply to all regions of Britain also, with a dry and calm start to Boxing Day, then rapid onset of stormy conditions by Thursday evening with Friday very stormy in all regions, especially north Wales, Lancs, Cumbria and southwest Scotland where gusts to 140 km/hr could develop.


    Forecasts for North America

    Light snow will continue to move through the eastern Great Lakes into New England. Otherwise it will be dry and cold in most eastern and central regions, with a slight warming trend spilling out of the central Rockies as the chinook winds cause a weak low to begin moving east. Temperatures will rise to about 4 or 5 C in parts of the west-central plains states, trending to 10-15 C in the south central states and 15-20 C in the southwest. My local weather on Christmas Day was cloudy, mild with afternoon light rain, highs near 10 C.

    Storm update will be posted around 5 p.m. with the latest information and guidance, at that time the storm should be making landfall in Kerry and Clare, west Mayo and Galway. Take some time during the quiet mid-day period to assess safety of your vehicle(s) and other movable items -- bear in mind that damage could most likely occur from objects falling or flying off roofs towards the northeast in a southwest wind. Postpone all unnecessary travel especially in west and south coast counties (valid 1800h today to 1800h tomorrow). Travel with extreme caution if you have to go somewhere.

    Astronomy notes: Half moon rising to high in south about 0700h close to Mars before dawn ends the viewing, tomorrow weather is likely to prevent viewing but Moon will be very close to bright star Spica during the early morning hours.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Thursday, 26 December, 2013 _ 4:45 p.m.
    ________________________________________________

    ALERT is maintained for extreme storm conditions by tonight lasting into Friday. Storm is rapidly developing just to west of Kerry now, and centre will track towards Mayo and Donegal. An occluded front will accelerate out ahead of the low this evening bringing very strong winds into the south about 9 p.m., expect southerly gales to develop and wind speeds of about 90 km/hr with gusts to 130 km/hr. Some embedded squalls or thunderstorms moving rapidly across the country could have similar or higher gusts.

    Following that event, the main wind field associated with the storm (I am reading it's called Erich) will move across the southern and central regions later tonight and during the day on Friday. The following map shows my forecast for maximum gust potential.

    286048.jpg

    There is the danger of embedded tornadic wind streaks most likely in central regions within 100 km of an Athlone to Thurles line, with even higher local gusts than shown in this more generalized map. Your local conditions may vary if you happen to live in a more or less exposed location than average. These strongest winds will come from a southwest to west direction, except in Donegal where they will probably only pick up later in the event (due to proximity to the low's calm centre) from a west to northwest direction. However, some very strong southerly gusts are likely in the opening salvo of the storm tonight.

    You can use what little time remains to prepare your property, especially movable items like vehicles, by considering where trees or roofing materials, etc, could land or blow to produce damage, and avoid those locations in favour of more sheltered or indoor locations. A southwest wind will scatter debris towards the northeast. (sorry, I realize this is obvious to many of my regular readers)

    Storm surge issues may be very severe, I would not wait for official warnings to evacuate or move property in areas that could be impacted by 2-3 m storm surge conditions anywhere near south or west coasts, better safe than sorry. I am expecting very dangerous road conditions to develop and would recommend travelling only in those few areas that might be sheltered from the stronger winds expected. My map is only an approximation based on model consensus, reality may shift these zones north or south slightly.

    I would certainly expect some ferry, air, road and rail delays or cancellations from about 1900h onward but especially during the morning. Stay safe and check the storm discussion for all the latest reporting and analysis.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Thursday, 26 December, 2013 _ 4:45 p.m.
    ________________________________________________

    ALERT is maintained for extreme storm conditions by tonight lasting into Friday. Storm is rapidly developing just to west of Kerry now, and centre will track towards Mayo and Donegal. An occluded front will accelerate out ahead of the low this evening bringing very strong winds into the south about 9 p.m., expect southerly gales to develop and wind speeds of about 90 km/hr with gusts to 130 km/hr. Some embedded squalls or thunderstorms moving rapidly across the country could have similar or higher gusts.

    Following that event, the main wind field associated with the storm (I am reading it's called Erich) will move across the southern and central regions later tonight and during the day on Friday. The following map shows my forecast for maximum gust potential.

    286048.jpg

    There is the danger of embedded tornadic wind streaks most likely in central regions within 100 km of an Athlone to Thurles line, with even higher local gusts than shown in this more generalized map. Your local conditions may vary if you happen to live in a more or less exposed location than average. These strongest winds will come from a southwest to west direction, except in Donegal where they will probably only pick up later in the event (due to proximity to the low's calm centre) from a west to northwest direction. However, some very strong southerly gusts are likely in the opening salvo of the storm tonight.

    You can use what little time remains to prepare your property, especially movable items like vehicles, by considering where trees or roofing materials, etc, could land or blow to produce damage, and avoid those locations in favour of more sheltered or indoor locations. A southwest wind will scatter debris towards the northeast. (sorry, I realize this is obvious to many of my regular readers)

    Storm surge issues may be very severe, I would not wait for official warnings to evacuate or move property in areas that could be impacted by 2-3 m storm surge conditions anywhere near south or west coasts, better safe than sorry. I am expecting very dangerous road conditions to develop and would recommend travelling only in those few areas that might be sheltered from the stronger winds expected. My map is only an approximation based on model consensus, reality may shift these zones north or south slightly.

    I would certainly expect some ferry, air, road and rail delays or cancellations from about 1900h onward but especially during the morning. Stay safe and check the storm discussion for all the latest reporting and analysis.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 27 December, 2013

    ALERT continued for severe wind gusts in most regions, persisting to about mid-day south, mid-afternoon central, late afternoon or evening north (areas now in the calmer eye will see stronger winds arriving this morning from west to east). Some tornadic wind streaks may develop, most likely between Galway and Dublin and about 50 km on either side of that east-west axis, but also further south in some parts of the inland south. In general, maximum wind gusts near 130-140 km/hr but potential for stronger gusts in very localized tornadic streaks. Hail and thunder may accompany rain squalls. Very poor driving conditions at times with debris on road from fallen trees and scattered debris. Drive with extreme caution especially outside larger urban areas.

    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY will continue very windy with occasional severe gusts to 140 km/hr from west veering to west-northwest in exposed areas, 110 km/hr in more sheltered spots. The exception will be parts of north Connacht and most of Ulster except closer to Leinster. Those counties will have moderate westerly winds 30-60 km/hr until mid-morning west and mid-day east, at which time strong northwesterlies will set in (80-120 km/hr). Lines of squally showers, some with hail and thunder, will move across the country and may be most severe in the Galway to Dublin corridor. Some hail and thunder will accompany these, and there is a slight risk of tornadic wind streaks with very localized gusts to 160 km/hr. Skies will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals. The south coast will be first to see an easing of the gales mid-day then central counties will get some relief by mid to late afternoon. Winds will remain strong (once they increase) over Ulster. Highs 9-11 C.

    TONIGHT will continue very windy in Ulster, NW 70-110 km/hr, with squally showers and some hail, sleet or snow on highest terrain. Other regions will be somewhat less windy but quite breezy at times, NW 50-90 km/hr. These winds may be more intermittent well inland. Lows near 3 C.

    SATURDAY will be breezy and occasionally quite gusty with wintry showers, some falls of sleet or snow on higher ground, highs 5-8 C. Winds WNW backing to SW 40-70 km/hr.

    SUNDAY will see any overnight sleet changing to rain, then it will become quite mild again with strong southerly winds 70-110 km/hr. This is not as likely to become a severe event, although windy enough, highs 10-13 C, and a fairly widespread 15-30 mm rainfall.

    MONDAY-TUESDAY will remain unsettled with falling temperatures, near 8 C by mid-day Monday and 6 C on Tuesday (New Years Eve). By midnight NYE the conditions may be quite bracing and wintry or mixed showers are possible.

    WEDNESDAY (New Years' Day) will be chilly and showery with potential for some wintry showers mixed in, temperatures in the 1-5 C range.

    OUTLOOK is uncertain as model guidance gets rather scattered, one theme is a continual parade of windy fronts and near normal temperatures, another is for gradual cooling as northern blocking develops. Probably the outcome will be some mixture of these with increasing chances of snow into mid-January.

    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY will see severe gales and stormy conditions from southern Scotland to the Channel, but worst in northwest England and north Wales, where gusts to 150 km/hr are possible. Squally hail and rain showers are likely. Central to northern Scotland will be much less windy near the low centre and will have frequent showers or periods of rain (sleet on hills).

    The outlook is generally similar to Ireland.


    Forecasts for North America

    See yesterday's package, same general themes, not much happening by comparison with Ireland. My local weather on Thursday was very mild with a few afternoon glimpses of sun through mid-level cloud and 13 C encouraging one (me) to go without a jacket (yep, it's true, I was outside).

    Stay safe as the wild ride continues, albeit with an end in sight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 28 December, 2013

    ALERT for possible icy roads in a few higher parts of the inland southwest and north this morning. Black ice could appear on untreated road surfaces to about ten o'clock.

    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY will be breezy, partly cloudy and occasionally quite gusty with wintry showers, some falls of sleet or snow on higher ground, highs 5-8 C. Winds WNW backing to SW 40-70 km/hr.

    TONIGHT may retain some wintry showers but also some clear intervals and localized frost, black ice on roads may become problematic in the inland south, west and north. Lows -3 to +2 C but temperatures may rise gradually in the west after midnight.

    SUNDAY will see any overnight sleet changing to rain, then it will become quite mild again with strong southerly winds 70-110 km/hr. This is not as likely to become a severe event, although windy enough, highs 10-13 C, and a fairly widespread 15-30 mm rainfall.

    MONDAY-TUESDAY will remain unsettled with falling temperatures, near 8 C by mid-day Monday and 6 C on Tuesday (New Years Eve). By midnight NYE the conditions may be quite bracing and wintry or mixed showers are possible.

    WEDNESDAY (New Years' Day) will be chilly and showery with potential for some wintry showers mixed in, temperatures in the 1-5 C range.

    OUTLOOK remains uncertain as model guidance gets rather scattered, one theme is a continual parade of windy fronts and near normal temperatures, another is for gradual cooling as northern blocking develops. Probably the outcome will be some mixture of these with increasing chances of snow into mid-January. I don't think we are necessarily out of the woods in terms of further windstorms either, but the next one (which could develop some time around 2-4 Jan) is likely to come at Ireland from the west-north-west and involve a windshift from WSW to NNW winds. That could open up different areas of the north to strong winds, and result in wintry showers during the windstorm.

    Having worked like a robot for many days, I will slack off somewhat in this remaining holiday period and just say that in North America, some bitterly cold air is poised to drop south into populated regions early next week, and further snowstorms are likely after that. My local weather on Friday was overcast and mild with showers and a high of 11 C but it has begun to clear this evening.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 28 December, 2013

    ALERT for possible icy roads in a few higher parts of the inland southwest and north this morning. Black ice could appear on untreated road surfaces to about ten o'clock.

    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY will be breezy, partly cloudy and occasionally quite gusty with wintry showers, some falls of sleet or snow on higher ground, highs 5-8 C. Winds WNW backing to SW 40-70 km/hr.

    TONIGHT may retain some wintry showers but also some clear intervals and localized frost, black ice on roads may become problematic in the inland south, west and north. Lows -3 to +2 C but temperatures may rise gradually in the west after midnight.

    SUNDAY will see any overnight sleet changing to rain, then it will become quite mild again with strong southerly winds 70-110 km/hr. This is not as likely to become a severe event, although windy enough, highs 10-13 C, and a fairly widespread 15-30 mm rainfall.

    MONDAY-TUESDAY will remain unsettled with falling temperatures, near 8 C by mid-day Monday and 6 C on Tuesday (New Years Eve). By midnight NYE the conditions may be quite bracing and wintry or mixed showers are possible.

    WEDNESDAY (New Years' Day) will be chilly and showery with potential for some wintry showers mixed in, temperatures in the 1-5 C range.

    OUTLOOK remains uncertain as model guidance gets rather scattered, one theme is a continual parade of windy fronts and near normal temperatures, another is for gradual cooling as northern blocking develops. Probably the outcome will be some mixture of these with increasing chances of snow into mid-January. I don't think we are necessarily out of the woods in terms of further windstorms either, but the next one (which could develop some time around 2-4 Jan) is likely to come at Ireland from the west-north-west and involve a windshift from WSW to NNW winds. That could open up different areas of the north to strong winds, and result in wintry showers during the windstorm.

    Having worked like a robot for many days, I will slack off somewhat in this remaining holiday period and just say that in North America, some bitterly cold air is poised to drop south into populated regions early next week, and further snowstorms are likely after that. My local weather on Friday was overcast and mild with showers and a high of 11 C but it has begun to clear this evening.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 29 December, 2013

    Wind speeds from today to about 2 January will often be close to the low end of ALERT levels, for example later today they could briefly gust to 110 km/hr in the west and south, but more intense windstorms appear possible although a long way from nailed down on occasions between 3 and 7 January. There is a similar background level of minor alert potential for icy roads on some mornings ahead and wintry showers (starting tomorrow). An astronomy note can be added, if anyone has clear skies and reads this before 0800h, have a look to the southeast and you may spot the crescent moon near Saturn.

    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY will become windy and milder with periods of rain developing mid-day and afternoon, lasting into the evening for eastern counties. Winds will increase to SSW 70-110 km/hr, highs will reach 11-13 C and rainfalls of about 15 or 20 mm are likely by midnight.

    TONIGHT will become colder again after midnight with showers turning rather wintry over higher parts of the north and southwest. Lows 2-4 C, winds easing to westerly 40-70 km/hr.

    MONDAY seems likely to turn windy and wet again, although not as mild as today, and probably not quite as windy (SW 50-90 km/hr), with highs near 9 or 10 C and 10-20 mm rain.

    TUESDAY will see some brief clear intervals and redevelopment of showers in a blustery southwest wind of 50-80 km/hr, morning lows 2-4 C and highs about 8 C with rainfalls about 5-10 mm. Some icy roads could be a problem at either end of the day in higher rural districts.

    WEDNESDAY (New Years Day) has a rather uncertain forecast outlook as low pressure may form just to the south and drift east, allowing rain or even sleet to spread across the south and some central counties. Thus it may be a more settled day in the north but isolated mixed showers are probably going to be present there also, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 6-8 C in general terms, rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY could bring on a more powerful storm system with strong SW to W wind gusts to 120 km/hr and temperatures near 10 C with periods of heavy, squally rain showers. This windy period could just keep on going with further impulses of low pressure in a steady train of fronts through the weekend of 4-5 January.

    The FURTHER OUTLOOK (surprise, surprise) is stormy too. An intense low appears on most models in the western Atlantic around Sunday 5th and some guidance has it turning out much like the recent windstorm (26-27 Dec) for the period 6-7 January. The difference might be that much colder air would be pressing south trying to get into the act and might start succeeding by the 7th to 9th of January with near freezing temperatures in a northerly gale, which would have to mean some hefty wintry showers at least in the north and west.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY will start out rather pleasant and slowly cloud up from west to east, followed by rain and strong winds by evening. Highs 10-12 C.

    From then on, the Ireland forecast would apply with slight adjustments to timing as fast-moving systems would only need 2-3 hours extra time to spread over much of Britain.

    Forecasts for North America

    Very cold air is rushing south behind a decaying blizzard now in Michigan and due to merge with a weak coastal low tonight near Cape Cod. Out ahead of these two lows, the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. will have a rather mild, dry day with highs 5-8 C inland to 10-14 C coastal plain. What's left of the snow (Dakotas already had theirs) will arrive in the Great Lakes by tonight and northern New England by Monday. Temperatures fall very rapidly behind this system, from near 5 C to near -20 C in a northerly gale. This will lead to powerful snow squalls at the south ends of Lakes Michigan and Huron, and a widespread snow squall event in Ohio, PA and NY states, as well as some parts of southern Ontario. Further west, a ridge of intensely cold arctic air is cresting over SK, w ND-SD and morning temperatures will be near -40 C, recovering only to -25 C under bright sunshine. This intense cold is linked to a second arctic high in the northern Yukon -- that one will continue to follow along with just a very minor warming between them, but that will begin to generate a weak low over the Rockies bringing snowfall there later today. The west coast remains mild and drizzly. My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with afternoon drizzly rain, highs near 8 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 30 December, 2013

    ALERT for flooding on roads and from some overflowing streams in parts of the southeast this morning from heavy rainfalls overnight. ADVANCE ALERT for frequent intervals of strong winds, now to 3 January, sometimes reaching 100-120 km/hr.

    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Rain gradually ending this morning, some brighter intervals, then becoming windy and wet again, winds increasing to SSW 50-90 km/hr, with highs about 8 to 10 C with another 10-20 mm rain.

    TONIGHT ... Rain ending after midnight with some wintry showers developing on higher ground in the north and west, lows 2-5 C. Some isolated icy or slippery roads by morning.

    TUESDAY will see some brief clear intervals and redevelopment of showers in a blustery southwest wind of 50-80 km/hr, highs about 8 C with rainfalls about 5-10 mm. Some icy roads could be a problem at either end of the day in higher rural districts.

    WEDNESDAY (New Years Day) ... low pressure may form just to the south and drift east, allowing rain or even sleet to spread across the south and some central counties. Thus it may be a more settled day in the north but isolated mixed showers are probably going to be present there also, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 6-8 C in general terms, rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY could bring on a more powerful storm system with strong SW to W wind gusts to 120 km/hr and temperatures near 10 C with periods of heavy, squally rain showers. This windy period could just keep on going with further impulses of low pressure in a steady train of fronts through the weekend of 4-5 January.

    The FURTHER OUTLOOK then calls for possible strong winds around Monday 6 January and Tuesday 7th, although most guidance so far is showing this storm weakening somewhat before it reaches Ireland. Temperatures would likely be in the 5-8 C range with frequent blustery showers, some wintry on higher ground. The trend beyond its passage seems to be towards colder weather.


    Forecasts for Britain

    The heavy rainfall that developed overnight in eastern Ireland will be moving across western and central Britain with some flooding as a result, with amounts reaching 30-50 mm by mid-day. Strong southerly winds and highs of about 11-13 C.

    Beyond that event, the weather in Britain will be similar to our forecasts for Ireland with a steady parade of windy, unsettled frontal systems.


    Forecasts for North America

    Turning much colder in the northeastern U.S. states, and lower Great Lakes region, after a slight snowfall, temperatures near -10 C by afternoon inland and falling to -5 C on the east coast. Frigid conditions further west in most of the central regions, some sunshine but -15 to -20 C, trending to cloudy and just above freezing in the south central states. Light snow developing in the central Rockies and parts of Alberta and inland B.C., rain and mild on the west coast. The western snowfall will spread further east tomorrow and turn into a fairly significant snowstorm for the Midwest and Great Lakes by New Years.

    My local weather was overcast with rain at times, highs near 10 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 31 December, 2013

    ALERT for gusty winds, showers and some thunderstorms mid-day today moving rapidly northeast ... ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfall on New Years' Day and through much of the 2nd-3rd, some total rainfalls of 50 mm possible, more severe flooding could develop ... ADVANCE ALERT for very strong winds late Thursday 2nd into early Friday 3rd, gusts to 120 km/hr or higher most likely south and central counties. A second severe windstorm is also possible by 5th-6th.

    TODAY ... A bright and rather mild start for the east, as showers and gusty south to southwest winds spread into the southwest. This front may develop a few thunderstorms as it moves rapidly northeast, reaching north Connacht to Dublin by about 1-2 p.m, producing 5-15 mm rainfalls and wind gusts to 90 km/hr. This front will have cleared eastern Ulster by evening and all regions will be in a somewhat colder feeling southwest wind of 50-80 km/hr. Highs of 9-12 C and evening temperatures near 6 C.

    TONIGHT (New Years' Eve) ... It will stay windy with periods of rain and SW backing to S gales 50-80 km/hr, a further 10-15 mm rain is possible, with temperatures steady near 4 or 5 C although 8-10 C in west Munster.

    TOMORROW (New Years' Day) ... Heavy rain during the morning, strong south winds for a time becoming very blustery over the southeast (60-100 km/hr) but generally much lighter winds further north as this wave tracks through the inland southeast bringing 15-30 mm rainfalls with a strong risk of spot flooding ... by afternoon and evening, all regions will be in a moderate southwest wind flow with showers, risk of sleet on higher ground in the north. Highs 8-10 C.

    THURSDAY (2nd January) ... Windy and partly cloudy to overcast at first with more showers developing, turning to periods of heavy rain (15-30 mm) ... although most of the day will have moderate SW winds 50-80 km/hr, by evening these may be increasing to 80-130 km/hr with the strongest gusts near the south and west coasts. Thunderstorms may also be in the mix. Lows of 4-6 C with highs 9-11 C.

    FRIDAY (3rd January) ... Very windy (SW-W 80-130 km/hr) with squally showers and thunderstorms, hail ... some easing of winds by afternoon or evening (WSW 50-80 km/hr) ... a further 10-15 mm rain, temperatures slowly falling from morning highs near 10 C, into the 4-7 C range.

    OUTLOOK ... Perhaps this should read LOOKOUT because after a brief and rather subtle break in the strong winds, another severe wind storm is quite possible, arriving on the 5th and possibly coming in two separate intervals of gale to storm force SW winds. Temperatures would likely be steady in the 7-9 C range and squally showers would be frequent. As an estimate, 40 mm of rain could fall in the five days ending Wed 8th. Models continue to show colder air advancing south but some now keep the Atlantic storm train active, so that confidence in any colder trend is low.


    Forecasts for Britain

    All of these various weather events will hit Britain about six hours later than Ireland. Today, they will continue to deal with the rain that has already moved through Ireland, then by tonight they will have the daytime frontal system moving through in time for New Years' Eve. Following that, the New Years' Day system will pump in mild and windy conditions that will only affect the southeast of Ireland. But later in the period, the stronger systems will be very similar if perhaps worse in the north-central regions than the south coast.

    Forecasts for North America

    Weak snow-producing lows are forming to the south and west of Chicago, and these will intensify somewhat through New Years Day to deliver a heavy snowfall by this weekend to the New England states and light snow further south. During this development period, snowfalls of 5-15 cm are likely where northeast winds blow across open waters of the Great Lakes and otherwise 2-5 cm snowfalls from the systems may be observed. The southeast and Gulf coast will remain rather chilly but well above freezing with any scattered precip in the form of light rain or drizzle. The northern plains, upper Midwest and eastern prairies are under severe cold from a strong arctic high, readings could fall to -30 or even -40 tonight after highs of -25 to -15 C. Further west, it is much milder in west coast regions with light rain. My local weather on Monday was cloudy with light rain at times, highs near 9 C.

    Happy New Year ... we have a new moon for New Years' Day. It seems like we have the same old weather.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 31 December, 2013

    ALERT for gusty winds, showers and some thunderstorms mid-day today moving rapidly northeast ... ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfall on New Years' Day and through much of the 2nd-3rd, some total rainfalls of 50 mm possible, more severe flooding could develop ... ADVANCE ALERT for very strong winds late Thursday 2nd into early Friday 3rd, gusts to 120 km/hr or higher most likely south and central counties. A second severe windstorm is also possible by 5th-6th.

    TODAY ... A bright and rather mild start for the east, as showers and gusty south to southwest winds spread into the southwest. This front may develop a few thunderstorms as it moves rapidly northeast, reaching north Connacht to Dublin by about 1-2 p.m, producing 5-15 mm rainfalls and wind gusts to 90 km/hr. This front will have cleared eastern Ulster by evening and all regions will be in a somewhat colder feeling southwest wind of 50-80 km/hr. Highs of 9-12 C and evening temperatures near 6 C.

    TONIGHT (New Years' Eve) ... It will stay windy with periods of rain and SW backing to S gales 50-80 km/hr, a further 10-15 mm rain is possible, with temperatures steady near 4 or 5 C although 8-10 C in west Munster.

    TOMORROW (New Years' Day) ... Heavy rain during the morning, strong south winds for a time becoming very blustery over the southeast (60-100 km/hr) but generally much lighter winds further north as this wave tracks through the inland southeast bringing 15-30 mm rainfalls with a strong risk of spot flooding ... by afternoon and evening, all regions will be in a moderate southwest wind flow with showers, risk of sleet on higher ground in the north. Highs 8-10 C.

    THURSDAY (2nd January) ... Windy and partly cloudy to overcast at first with more showers developing, turning to periods of heavy rain (15-30 mm) ... although most of the day will have moderate SW winds 50-80 km/hr, by evening these may be increasing to 80-130 km/hr with the strongest gusts near the south and west coasts. Thunderstorms may also be in the mix. Lows of 4-6 C with highs 9-11 C.

    FRIDAY (3rd January) ... Very windy (SW-W 80-130 km/hr) with squally showers and thunderstorms, hail ... some easing of winds by afternoon or evening (WSW 50-80 km/hr) ... a further 10-15 mm rain, temperatures slowly falling from morning highs near 10 C, into the 4-7 C range.

    OUTLOOK ... Perhaps this should read LOOKOUT because after a brief and rather subtle break in the strong winds, another severe wind storm is quite possible, arriving on the 5th and possibly coming in two separate intervals of gale to storm force SW winds. Temperatures would likely be steady in the 7-9 C range and squally showers would be frequent. As an estimate, 40 mm of rain could fall in the five days ending Wed 8th. Models continue to show colder air advancing south but some now keep the Atlantic storm train active, so that confidence in any colder trend is low.


    Forecasts for Britain

    All of these various weather events will hit Britain about six hours later than Ireland. Today, they will continue to deal with the rain that has already moved through Ireland, then by tonight they will have the daytime frontal system moving through in time for New Years' Eve. Following that, the New Years' Day system will pump in mild and windy conditions that will only affect the southeast of Ireland. But later in the period, the stronger systems will be very similar if perhaps worse in the north-central regions than the south coast.

    Forecasts for North America

    Weak snow-producing lows are forming to the south and west of Chicago, and these will intensify somewhat through New Years Day to deliver a heavy snowfall by this weekend to the New England states and light snow further south. During this development period, snowfalls of 5-15 cm are likely where northeast winds blow across open waters of the Great Lakes and otherwise 2-5 cm snowfalls from the systems may be observed. The southeast and Gulf coast will remain rather chilly but well above freezing with any scattered precip in the form of light rain or drizzle. The northern plains, upper Midwest and eastern prairies are under severe cold from a strong arctic high, readings could fall to -30 or even -40 tonight after highs of -25 to -15 C. Further west, it is much milder in west coast regions with light rain. My local weather on Monday was cloudy with light rain at times, highs near 9 C.

    Happy New Year ... we have a new moon for New Years' Day. It seems like we have the same old weather.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 1 January, 2014

    ALERT for heavy rainfall today, 20-30 mm with spot flooding in Munster and south-central Leinster, more rain through much of the 2nd-3rd, some total rainfalls of 50 mm possible, and more severe flooding could develop ... ADVANCE ALERT for very strong winds late Thursday 2nd into early Friday 3rd, gusts to 120 km/hr or higher most likely south and central counties. A second severe windstorm is also possible by 5th-6th.

    TODAY ... Heavy rain during the morning, for the southeast only -- strong south winds for a time becoming very blustery (60-100 km/hr) but generally much lighter winds further north as this wave tracks through the inland southeast bringing 15-30 mm rainfalls with a strong risk of spot flooding ... by afternoon and evening, all regions will be in a moderate southwest wind flow with showers, risk of sleet on higher ground in the north. Highs 8-10 C.

    TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, any showers likely to turn more wintry especially over the inland north, lows -1 to +3 C, some icy roads could develop.

    THURSDAY (2nd January) ... Windy and partly cloudy to overcast at first with more showers developing, turning to periods of heavy rain (15-30 mm) ... although most of the day will have moderate SW winds 50-80 km/hr, by evening these may be increasing to 80-130 km/hr with the strongest gusts near the south and west coasts. Thunderstorms may also be in the mix with highs 9-11 C. Strongest winds likely during the overnight hours on the south and west coasts, potential for gusts to 140 km/hr and storm surge high tides 2 metres above tide tables. Watch for updates.

    FRIDAY (3rd January) ... Very windy (SW-W 80-130 km/hr) with squally showers and thunderstorms, hail ... some easing of winds by afternoon or evening (WSW 50-80 km/hr) ... a further 10-15 mm rain, temperatures slowly falling from morning highs near 10 C, into the 4-7 C range.

    OUTLOOK ... Perhaps this should read LOOKOUT because after a brief and rather subtle break in the strong winds on Saturday 4th, another severe wind storm is quite possible, arriving on Sunday the 5th and possibly coming in two separate intervals of gale to storm force SW winds. Temperatures would likely be steady in the 7-9 C range and squally showers would be frequent. As an estimate, 40 mm of rain could fall in the five days ending Wed 8th. Models continue to show colder air advancing south and the ECM now has the vague hint of a colder easterly spell around 9th to 11th, but some models continue to keep the Atlantic storm train active, so that confidence in any colder trend is low to moderate.

    Happy New Year -- new moon occurs today at 11:14h and is then at its perigee before the day is over. See the previous message for the forecasts for Britain and North America which remain as described.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 2 January, 2014

    ALERT for intervals of heavy rain with very strong winds late Thursday 2nd into early Friday 3rd, gusts to 130 km/hr or higher most likely south and west coastal counties. Rainfalls of about 20 mm likely, some further spot flooding. Wintry showers may cause travel problems on Saturday, and a second strong wind event with moderate rainfall is also possible by 5th-6th.

    TODAY ... Becoming increasingly windy and partly cloudy to overcast at first with more showers developing, turning to periods of heavy rain (15-30 mm) with some risk of thunderstorms by evening ... although most of the day will have moderate SW winds 50-80 km/hr, by evening these may be increasing to 80-130 km/hr with the strongest gusts near the south and west coasts. Thunderstorms may also be in the mix with highs 9-11 C. Strongest winds likely during the overnight hours on the south and west coasts, potential for gusts to 140 km/hr and storm surge high tides 2 metres above tide tables. Watch for updates.

    TONIGHT ... Very windy with severe gusts near south and west coasts to 140 km/hr. Storm surge potential in all south and west facing bays and harbours as high tides increase to 2 metres above tide tables. Temperatures steady 8-10 C then falling slightly by morning, squally showers with some hail and thunder. Secure loose property before nightfall.

    FRIDAY (3rd January) ... Very windy (SW-W 80-130 km/hr) with squally showers and thunderstorms, hail ... some easing of winds by afternoon or evening (WSW 50-80 km/hr) ... a further 10-15 mm rain, temperatures slowly falling from morning highs near 10 C, into the 4-7 C range.

    SATURDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, windy and quite cold with passing showers, most of these becoming wintry over higher inland elevations above 150m above sea level. Some accumulations of snow likely on hills. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr. Morning lows 2-4 C and afternoon highs 4-7 C.

    SUNDAY ... Milder and windy (possibly very windy at times) with showery rainfalls of 10-15 mm, highs near 11 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Some risk of a severe wind event but most likely moderating to about 70-110 km/hr with occasional rain and temperatures steady 6-8 C ... later next week evolution could change rapidly to more anticyclonic and colder, although perhaps not cold enough for severe frost or snow. However, some guidance wants to bring yet another strong low across the Atlantic. There is already a lot of uncertainty about its development over North America and I tend to think it may move up into Canada's eastern arctic, sending only a weak secondary low towards Iceland. This could allow for some settling down of the pattern over the eastern Atlantic.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, rather mild, showers developing, highs 9-12 C. Becoming very windy in Scotland by evening.

    TONIGHT and FRIDAY ... Windy with squally showers, gusts to 140 km/hr in north, 120 km/hr south. Highs near 10 C.

    OUTLOOK is similar to Ireland and in general it will be rather cold at times over the weekend, then milder towards Sunday night and Monday.


    Forecasts for North America

    TODAY will be snowy across much of the northeast with snow tapering to flurries in the Midwest. Clear and very cold further north. This snowstorm will develop a coastal centre by tonight and then a blizzard-like snowstorm will develop over the east coast cities, 35 cm in Boston and 25 cm in New York City. Highs near -5 C in the snow and -20 C or colder further north. A slightly milder Pacific flow is edging eastward from the Rockies but will encounter the very cold air and form a new storm in North Dakota late tonight and Friday. This will bring 10-15 cm of snow to the central and eastern Canadian prairies, followed by an exceptionally cold blast of arctic air with wind chills near -55 C by the weekend. As the weak snowstorm moves southeast, it will interact with Gulf moisture and set off a fierce storm over the Great Lakes by Monday, drawing in this very cold air. Details on this may not be completely handled by the models and this one bears watching. Meanwhile most of the southwest U.S. is clear and dry, out of the storm zone and fairly mild. My local weather on New Years Day was overcast with a high of 7 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 2 January, 2014

    ALERT for intervals of heavy rain with very strong winds late Thursday 2nd into early Friday 3rd, gusts to 130 km/hr or higher most likely south and west coastal counties. Rainfalls of about 20 mm likely, some further spot flooding. Wintry showers may cause travel problems on Saturday, and a second strong wind event with moderate rainfall is also possible by 5th-6th.

    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Becoming increasingly windy and partly cloudy to overcast at first with more showers developing, turning to periods of heavy rain (15-30 mm) with some risk of thunderstorms by evening ... although most of the day will have moderate SW winds 50-80 km/hr, by evening these may be increasing to 80-130 km/hr with the strongest gusts near the south and west coasts. Thunderstorms may also be in the mix with highs 9-11 C. Strongest winds likely during the overnight hours on the south and west coasts, potential for gusts to 140 km/hr and storm surge high tides 2 metres above tide tables. Watch for updates.

    TONIGHT ... Very windy with severe gusts near south and west coasts to 140 km/hr. Storm surge potential in all south and west facing bays and harbours as high tides increase to 2 metres above tide tables. Temperatures steady 8-10 C then falling slightly by morning, squally showers with some hail and thunder. Secure loose property before nightfall.

    FRIDAY (3rd January) ... Very windy (SW-W 80-130 km/hr) with squally showers and thunderstorms, hail ... some easing of winds by afternoon or evening (WSW 50-80 km/hr) ... a further 10-15 mm rain, temperatures slowly falling from morning highs near 10 C, into the 4-7 C range.

    SATURDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, windy and quite cold with passing showers, most of these becoming wintry over higher inland elevations above 150m above sea level. Some accumulations of snow likely on hills. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr. Morning lows 2-4 C and afternoon highs 4-7 C.

    SUNDAY ... Milder and windy (possibly very windy at times) with showery rainfalls of 10-15 mm, highs near 11 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Some risk of a severe wind event but most likely moderating to about 70-110 km/hr with occasional rain and temperatures steady 6-8 C ... later next week evolution could change rapidly to more anticyclonic and colder, although perhaps not cold enough for severe frost or snow. However, some guidance wants to bring yet another strong low across the Atlantic. There is already a lot of uncertainty about its development over North America and I tend to think it may move up into Canada's eastern arctic, sending only a weak secondary low towards Iceland. This could allow for some settling down of the pattern over the eastern Atlantic.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, rather mild, showers developing, highs 9-12 C. Becoming very windy in Scotland by evening.

    TONIGHT and FRIDAY ... Windy with squally showers, gusts to 140 km/hr in north, 120 km/hr south. Highs near 10 C.

    OUTLOOK is similar to Ireland and in general it will be rather cold at times over the weekend, then milder towards Sunday night and Monday.


    Forecasts for North America

    TODAY will be snowy across much of the northeast with snow tapering to flurries in the Midwest. Clear and very cold further north. This snowstorm will develop a coastal centre by tonight and then a blizzard-like snowstorm will develop over the east coast cities, 35 cm in Boston and 25 cm in New York City. Highs near -5 C in the snow and -20 C or colder further north. A slightly milder Pacific flow is edging eastward from the Rockies but will encounter the very cold air and form a new storm in North Dakota late tonight and Friday. This will bring 10-15 cm of snow to the central and eastern Canadian prairies, followed by an exceptionally cold blast of arctic air with wind chills near -55 C by the weekend. As the weak snowstorm moves southeast, it will interact with Gulf moisture and set off a fierce storm over the Great Lakes by Monday, drawing in this very cold air. Details on this may not be completely handled by the models and this one bears watching. Meanwhile most of the southwest U.S. is clear and dry, out of the storm zone and fairly mild. My local weather on New Years Day was overcast with a high of 7 C.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 3 January, 2014

    ALERT continued for Ulster and Connacht to 1100h west and 1400h northeast, for strong wind gusts to 120 km/hr ... the worst has passed in many parts of Ireland but wind speeds will increase for a while in north Ulster as the low passes well to the north. ADVANCE ALERT for some icy roads and wintry showers, mainly inland north and higher parts of southwest, on Saturday ... currently the situation on the next major low from the northeast U.S. is a watch rather than an alert, since the guidance tends to show a variety of possible outcomes but the majority are what we might term "near miss" situations by Sunday night or Monday. However, a very active ocean swell and continued very large waves would be a definite risk even if this storm weakens or moves north to avoid another strong wind event. At the same time, we should stress that Ireland is not "out of the woods" as far as this next storm is concerned.

    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Very strong wind gusts will continue this morning in parts of Connacht and Ulster, with a slight improvement across Munster and Leinster spreading further north by mid-day. Eventually winds will settled into a more moderate 50-80 km/hr range. Some prolonged periods of rain with embedded squally showers can be expected in parts of the inland north, with a mixture of cloud and sunshine further south and more isolated showers. It will feel a bit colder with temperatures around 8 or 9 C. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm for most, but 10-20 mm inland north.

    TONIGHT ... Any leftover showers will probably turn wintry as temperatures fall gradually to about 2 C, with isolated frost and ice on higher untreated road surfaces. Winds more moderate from the SW to W at 30-50 km/hr.

    SATURDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, cold and breezy with outbreaks of wintry showers, heavy sleet or snow possible on hills, rain or hail closer to sea level with a few snow flurries at times. Highs 4-7 C with moderate SW winds becoming somewhat variable. See note at end of Sunday forecast re waves.

    SUNDAY ... Windy and milder with periods of rain, possibly quite heavy at times. The most likely outcome is for moderately strong southerly winds rising to about 60-100 km/hr, but by evening there is some risk of much stronger winds again (see discussion in alert section). Lows 3-5 C and highs 10-13 C with 15-30 mm rainfalls. Very large swells and breaking waves on south and west coasts, and in the Irish Sea (even on sheltered coasts fairly large waves can be expected, rogue waves are possible so exercise caution especially with kids and pets if taking in the scenes.)

    OUTLOOK ... The most likely outcome is for this stormy interval to fade out slowly and perhaps to be replaced by colder weather at times, with some chance of slight snowfalls at times. There is some risk of a continuation of stormy weather into Monday-Tuesday when most of the guidance shows the major mid-Atlantic storm filling near Iceland.


    Forecasts for Britain

    Very windy in Scotland today with gusts 120-140 km/hr, but somewhat less windy elsewhere with squally showers and some thunder, highs near 12 C.

    The general picture for Britain is about the same as for Ireland with only a moderate chance of a second strong windstorm arriving around Monday and a higher likelihood of just moderate winds, rather mild to about Tuesday 7th then colder in stages (especially the unheated kind).


    Forecasts for North America

    A blizzard-like snowstorm with very cold northeast winds will rage most of the day in the northeast, airports may be closed to mid-day Saturday, highs will struggle to reach -10 C. Washington DC and further south will clear and while chilly it will not be exceptionally cold near 5 C. Very cold in the Midwest and plains states but warming rapidly in the higher western plains and Rockies ahead of a snowstorm running east near the U.S. - Canada border, with most of the snow north of the border or in the 100 km strip of ND-MN near the border. 10-15 cm snow in this region, then much colder again. Eventually this severe cold will charge south and energize the front, while this prairie snowstorm dies out near Hudson Bay on Sunday, a much stronger storm will develop in the Gulf states and move northeast to Ontario bringing blizzard conditions followed by a surge of -30 C brutal cold that will reach the east coast by Tuesday (-20 C there). My local weather on Thursday was overcast, foggy and at times quite wet (unusually dark too) with highs near 7 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 4 January, 2014

    Forecasts for Ireland

    ALERT for scattered outbreaks of wintry showers today including some snow mainly above 200m and hail, briefly reduced visibility and slippery or icy roads (conditions quite variable) ... ADVANCE ALERT for another interval of strong or very strong wind gusts Sunday night into Monday, but of more concern, a return to very high seas at high tides.

    TODAY ... Scattered wintry showers, some with hail and snow, more likely over the inland north and higher parts of the southwest, brief thunder and the risk of poor road conditions, but also some sunny intervals, chilly with highs around 5 to 8 C.

    TONIGHT ... Wintry showers dying out except perhaps in north where an interval of sleet is possible, lows -1 to +2 C, some icy patches on untreated roads in higher inland districts.

    SUNDAY ... Milder with showers or periods of rain, 10-20 mm likely, some strong southwest wind gusts developing but generally 50-90 km/hr, increasing by evening to 70-120 km/hr. High tides may be accompanied by storm surge conditions and coastal flooding. Highs 9-12 C.

    MONDAY ... Windy with further showers or periods of rain, but slowly improving by afternoon, mild with lows 4-7 C and highs 8-11 C.

    TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Showers, turning colder in stages, as showers become more wintry at times. Highs 6-9 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are uncertain signs of a colder and more settled period later next week, highs near 5 C and frosts in the -3 C range.


    Forecasts for Britain

    In general, the same patterns will affect Britain throughout, but the risk of very strong winds is greater in northern Scotland than elsewhere, hitting there by late Sunday into Monday.


    Forecasts for North America

    A watch is now in place for a potentially severe snowstorm developing Sunday in the Ohio valley and western Great Lakes, spreading northeast by Monday. Today will be a rather quiet and somewhat milder day for these regions in advance of the developing storm. The northeast will be sunny and a bit milder than yesterday's frigid conditions, once the morning chill wears off (near -20 in rural parts of PA, NJ, NY and New England states before sunrise). Central states a bit milder today but much colder air is moving rapidly south from the Canadian arctic and will reach the Dakotas by tonight. By Sunday, temperatures near -35 C and wind chills near record low values in the -50s or lower. That severe cold is going to arrive near the end of the snowstorm and set off massive snow squalls near the Great Lakes. The western states and British Columbia are dry and mild to warm south. My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy with a pleasant high near 6 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 6 January, 2014

    ALERT for strong winds and squally showers with thunder and hail today, as well as continued risks of coastal flooding. You may have seen my forecast posted here yesterday but just for the record, apparently it disappeared later in the day along with all other Boards posts placed on the site during a given time frame.

    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Windy and continued rather mild with squally showers, some with hail and thunder, winds SW 70-110 km/hr and some higher gusts to 120 km/hr near west coast. Highs 9-12 C. Rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

    TONIGHT .... Further showers, somewhat colder and becoming a bit less windy (SW 50-80 km/hr near coasts, 30-60 km/hr inland). Lows 3-6 C.

    TUESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers, some rather squally with hail. Highs 8-10 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, colder, wintry showers developing, some risk of snow or sleet on higher ground. Morning lows about -2 to +3 C and highs 5-8 C.

    THURSDAY to SATURDAY ... Remaining rather chilly and unsettled, some risk of sleet or snow on higher ground at times, but details uncertain as a weak frontal zone may divide colder north and east from milder south and west. Highs on the milder side of this boundary near 8 C, on the colder side around 4-6 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... While rather uncertain, the one theme that seems to dominate is a change to more settled anticylonic conditions and this would probably imply more frequent (light) frosts.


    Forecasts for Britain

    The pattern will be similar to Ireland and the strongest winds today will be across southern Scotland and parts of northern England, Wales.


    Forecasts for North America

    Extreme cold will spread further east from current locations in the Midwest and plains states as well as much of central Canada. This is an intense arctic outbreak with temperatures near -20 C and wind chills -35 to -45 C. Heavy snow squalls will add to large snowfall totals already observed on Sunday in the Great Lakes region, also adding to bare ground in western New York which had rain rather than snow. The super-cold outbreak will blast through the coastal cities around mid-day dropping their temperatures in spectacular fashion from 10-15 C this morning to -15 C by evening. A brief burst of heavy snow is likely. All of this may create some airport delays or alternate landing scenarios, for those heading across the pond today or Tuesday. The west remains tranquil under a strong ridge and temperatures are near or a little above normal there. My local weather both days on the weekend (since we lost the record from yesterday) -- sunny and mild with highs near 7 or 8 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 7 January, 2014

    Forecasts for Ireland


    TODAY ... Continued rather windy and unsettled with some heavy showers at times in Connacht heading towards Ulster, more isolated heavy showers elsewhere. Winds SW 50-80 km/hr. Highs 8-10 C with 5-15 mm rainfalls.

    TONIGHT ... Further showers but these should die out after becoming rather sleety in higher elevations, fog or mist developing and chilly, lows 1-4 C with some scattered pockets of ground frost or black ice on some roads.

    WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy but dry to start, then intervals of rain (sleet or snow on higher ground) becoming heavy in parts of the south. Highs 7-9 C. Light winds.

    THURSDAY ... Rain or sleet ending, some clearing, followed by scattered hail or sleet showers, chilly with winds 40-70 km/hr from west to northwest.

    FRIDAY into WEEKEND ... Cloudy, periods of rain with some hail or sleet mainly on higher ground, chilly with highs generally in the 7-9 C range. Some stronger south to southeast winds may return.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather different scenarios appear on the various models, but the background theme seems to be colder weather with some more settled conditions at times leading to moderate frosts in the -3 C range. At least there is not much sign of a return to strong winds with the pattern over North America gradually shifting to a more blocked appearance.


    Forecasts for Britain

    The pattern will be similar -- the heavy rain expected in Ireland on Wednesday (late) will move rather slowly east so it may take most of Thursday to come and go from central England and Wales.


    Forecasts for North America

    Bitterly cold but mostly sunny for large sections of eastern and central North America, except for some heavy snow squalls in westerly winds off the Great Lakes. Daytime temperatures near -10 C on the east coast, -20 C or lower in many places further west to about the central plains and prairies. Much milder conditions further west. The severe chill has spread into the southeast and parts of Florida are seeing a very frosty overnight low of -5 C or lower, and will only recover to about 7 C later today. That's not much different from my local weather on Monday -- thick frost in the morning, sunny and cool afternoon (5 C).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 7 January, 2014

    Forecasts for Ireland


    TODAY ... Continued rather windy and unsettled with some heavy showers at times in Connacht heading towards Ulster, more isolated heavy showers elsewhere. Winds SW 50-80 km/hr. Highs 8-10 C with 5-15 mm rainfalls.

    TONIGHT ... Further showers but these should die out after becoming rather sleety in higher elevations, fog or mist developing and chilly, lows 1-4 C with some scattered pockets of ground frost or black ice on some roads.

    WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy but dry to start, then intervals of rain (sleet or snow on higher ground) becoming heavy in parts of the south. Highs 7-9 C. Light winds.

    THURSDAY ... Rain or sleet ending, some clearing, followed by scattered hail or sleet showers, chilly with winds 40-70 km/hr from west to northwest.

    FRIDAY into WEEKEND ... Cloudy, periods of rain with some hail or sleet mainly on higher ground, chilly with highs generally in the 7-9 C range. Some stronger south to southeast winds may return.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather different scenarios appear on the various models, but the background theme seems to be colder weather with some more settled conditions at times leading to moderate frosts in the -3 C range. At least there is not much sign of a return to strong winds with the pattern over North America gradually shifting to a more blocked appearance.


    Forecasts for Britain

    The pattern will be similar -- the heavy rain expected in Ireland on Wednesday (late) will move rather slowly east so it may take most of Thursday to come and go from central England and Wales.


    Forecasts for North America

    Bitterly cold but mostly sunny for large sections of eastern and central North America, except for some heavy snow squalls in westerly winds off the Great Lakes. Daytime temperatures near -10 C on the east coast, -20 C or lower in many places further west to about the central plains and prairies. Much milder conditions further west. The severe chill has spread into the southeast and parts of Florida are seeing a very frosty overnight low of -5 C or lower, and will only recover to about 7 C later today. That's not much different from my local weather on Monday -- thick frost in the morning, sunny and cool afternoon (5 C).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 8 January, 2014

    Forecasts for Ireland


    TODAY ... Sunny intervals across the north, becoming cloudy but dry around mid-day, then intervals of rain (sleet or snow on higher ground mainly above 500m) becoming heavy in parts of the south. Highs 7-9 C. Light winds becoming E-NE 20-40 km/hr.

    TONIGHT ... Rain continuing except in most of Ulster and north Connacht, where cloudy but dry, lows 3-5 C. Total rainfalls about 15-20 mm. Winds backing northeast to north 20-40 km/hr.

    THURSDAY ... Rain or sleet ending, some clearing, followed by scattered hail or sleet showers, chilly with winds 40-70 km/hr from west to northwest. Highs 7-9 C.

    FRIDAY into WEEKEND ... Cloudy, periods of rain with some hail or sleet mainly on higher ground, chilly with highs generally in the 7-9 C range. Some stronger south to southeast winds may return.

    OUTLOOK ... Models are now beginning to focus on colder and in fact wintry looking patterns that may edge into the north as early as late Monday or Tuesday. There may be somewhat of a north-south split for a day or two before colder easterly winds manage to push all the way through to Munster. At some point next week there could be some outbreaks of sea effect snow or mixed wintry showers, in the usual locations near east and south coasts. Highs may fall off to the 2-4 C range with severe frosts possible within a week. This spell appears likely to persist only about a week and could end with a return to milder, windy conditions with rain (in about two weeks or so).

    Forecasts for Britain

    The pattern will be similar -- the heavy rain expected in Ireland on Wednesday (late) will move rather slowly east so it may take most of Thursday to come and go from central England and Wales. The colder turn next week will as usual set in faster and with more intensity as there is only the North Sea in the way. Even so, there is no absolute guarantee of wintry weather yet for Britain, it is certainly looking that way on this morning's model runs.


    Forecasts for North America

    The severe cold is slowly moderating but it will remain a good ten degrees below normal in much of the east, southeast and central U.S. and most of eastern and central Canada. Much of this region will be dry and even sunny, but a few heavy squall bands continue in western Michigan, southern Ontario and most notably near Buffalo, NY. Meanwhile the west continues rather mild and rain is now edging into the west coast. My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with light rain and a high of about 8 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 8 January, 2014

    Forecasts for Ireland


    TODAY ... Sunny intervals across the north, becoming cloudy but dry around mid-day, then intervals of rain (sleet or snow on higher ground mainly above 500m) becoming heavy in parts of the south. Highs 7-9 C. Light winds becoming E-NE 20-40 km/hr.

    TONIGHT ... Rain continuing except in most of Ulster and north Connacht, where cloudy but dry, lows 3-5 C. Total rainfalls about 15-20 mm. Winds backing northeast to north 20-40 km/hr.

    THURSDAY ... Rain or sleet ending, some clearing, followed by scattered hail or sleet showers, chilly with winds 40-70 km/hr from west to northwest. Highs 7-9 C.

    FRIDAY into WEEKEND ... Cloudy, periods of rain with some hail or sleet mainly on higher ground, chilly with highs generally in the 7-9 C range. Some stronger south to southeast winds may return.

    OUTLOOK ... Models are now beginning to focus on colder and in fact wintry looking patterns that may edge into the north as early as late Monday or Tuesday. There may be somewhat of a north-south split for a day or two before colder easterly winds manage to push all the way through to Munster. At some point next week there could be some outbreaks of sea effect snow or mixed wintry showers, in the usual locations near east and south coasts. Highs may fall off to the 2-4 C range with severe frosts possible within a week. This spell appears likely to persist only about a week and could end with a return to milder, windy conditions with rain (in about two weeks or so).

    Forecasts for Britain

    The pattern will be similar -- the heavy rain expected in Ireland on Wednesday (late) will move rather slowly east so it may take most of Thursday to come and go from central England and Wales. The colder turn next week will as usual set in faster and with more intensity as there is only the North Sea in the way. Even so, there is no absolute guarantee of wintry weather yet for Britain, it is certainly looking that way on this morning's model runs.


    Forecasts for North America

    The severe cold is slowly moderating but it will remain a good ten degrees below normal in much of the east, southeast and central U.S. and most of eastern and central Canada. Much of this region will be dry and even sunny, but a few heavy squall bands continue in western Michigan, southern Ontario and most notably near Buffalo, NY. Meanwhile the west continues rather mild and rain is now edging into the west coast. My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with light rain and a high of about 8 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 9 January, 2014

    Forecasts for Ireland


    TODAY ... Some clear intervals will be followed by scattered hail or sleet showers, chilly with winds 40-70 km/hr from west to northwest. Highs 7-9 C.

    TONIGHT ... Clear to partly cloudy, cold, some frost and icy roads developing, lows -2 to +3 C.

    FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain and southerly winds 30-50 km/hr, rain may mix with sleet on higher ground in north at times, especially towards evening, highs 5-8 C mildest in south. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm.

    SATURDAY ... Frosty to start, then a mostly dry but cloudy day with sleet or rain arriving in the west later in the day or by evening. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 6-9 C.

    SUNDAY ... Rain with sleet or snow on higher ground, strong east to southeast winds developing, raw and cold with highs near 6 C.

    OUTLOOK ... The various guidance from computer models gives a range of outcomes from wintry cold and potential for snow at times next week in temperatures close to 2 or 3 C, to more of a close call with frequent outbreaks of rain and sleet with temperatures in the 4-6 C range. Likely, the outcome will be a range of conditions that include these somewhat different degrees of cold, and there will probably be snow on hills and moderate if not severe frosts some nights next week. There is an outside chance of heavy snow if the right combination of storm track and cold incursion take place.


    Forecasts for Britain

    Similar colder and unsettled weather will develop after a mild start in eastern England today. By next week there is a moderate chance of snow in eastern England and a high risk in Scotland.


    Forecasts for North America

    The cold, dry pattern will fade out today over eastern states and portions of Canada, followed by a slow-moving and rather sluggish frontal system taking shape in the central plains states today. This will bring mixtures of snow, sleet and then rain as milder air slowly moves north. Western regions are already quite mild and will continue that way with further outbreaks of rain and mountain snow. It may be a week or so before severe cold returns, and by Sunday the east coast of the U.S. will be as mild as 14-17 C with heavy rain in places. My local weather on Wednesday was wet and mild with highs near 10C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 10 January, 2014

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Rain, drizzle and fog moving gradually east, amounts 10-15 mm. Rather raw feeling southerly winds 40-70 km/hr, highs 8-10 C mildest near south coast.

    TONIGHT ... Rain may end as sleet in some higher locations, then becoming icy in some inland districts with fog, some rather poor road conditions may result ... lows -3 to +2 C.

    SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, cold and dry until later in the day, when more rain or sleet may develop, winds increasing late in the day to E-SE 40-70 km/hr, highs 5-8 C.

    SUNDAY ... Somewhat milder again, rain and fog, 10-20 mm in total, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 8-11 C.

    OUTLOOK ... With the guidance rather scattered, the most likely forecast to verify would be unsettled and chilly with mixed wintry showers at times, although it may be only cold enough to turn wintry on higher ground much of the time, with highs during the week around 5-8 C, and some risk of frosts.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY will be partly cloudy with some local fog and a chilly start, turning milder with rain arriving late in the day mostly in Wales and western England, highs near 9 C.

    OUTLOOK from tomorrow onwards, similar to Ireland, although somewhat greater risk of wintry showers at lower elevations, especially in Scotland and northeast England next week.


    Forecasts for North America

    Light snow turning to sleet and then rain in the Midwest, all of this arriving by tonight further east. Turning much milder from south to north across the Midwest, Great Lakes and inland northeast overnight and on the coast tomorrow, highs today close to freezing but rising to 10-15 C tomorrow. Somehwat colder air is seeping into the plains states behind this system but a stronger push of mild air will follow that, so that conditions may become foggy and then a thaw will develop. The west remains rather mild with outbreaks of rain at low elevations. My local weather on Thursday was wet and mild, 9 C.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 11 January, 2014

    Forecasts for Ireland


    ALERT for icy or slippery roads in some parts of the inland north and isolated higher districts elsewhere, to about 10:00 a.m., in part due to earlier sleet or snow, but also "black ice" which can be difficult to detect, so drive with caution.

    TODAY ... Some further wintry showers mostly sleet turning back to rain in parts of the north, dry with some sunny intervals after any fog lifts elsewhere, but remaining rather cold, highs 4-7 C.

    TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, then sleet turning to rain, milder in stages as temperatures rise to about 5-8 C by morning. Strong southeast winds developing (40-70 km/hr).

    SUNDAY ... Foggy with rain or drizzle at times, some improvement in west by afternoon ... 10-20 mm rainfalls, highs 8-11 C. Winds veering SE to SW at about 50-80 km/hr.

    MONDAY ... Breezy or windy with mixed wintry showers as it turns somewhat colder again, higher risk of snow in the north and on higher terrain. Hail could be more widespread. Lows 1-4 C and highs 6-9 C.

    TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, wintry showers at times, lows -3 to +2 C and highs about 5-8 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Somewhat milder again at least in south and west, rain developing, highs near 9 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Cold air lurks just to the north and northeast, but most guidance keeps Ireland in a transitional zone with further oscillations between rather mild and quite chilly days, the next milder interlude timed for about Friday or Saturday. Eventually cold air might make a stronger push towards Ireland but some of the longer-range guidance shows quite mild westerly sourced air masses winning the battle in about two weeks.


    Forecasts for Britain

    The trends will be similar for Britain, although wintry showers may be somewhat more frequent in each opportunity, and milder air will generally fail to reach Scotland which could stay in the colder air masses most of the time and see considerable snow on hills.


    Forecasts for North America

    A brief but complete change in the weather pattern has taken hold now and the weekend will stay generally very mild with outbreaks of moderate to heavy rain causing snow-melt flooding mostly in urban areas, from the Midwest to the east coast, where highs could reach 15 C. A second push of mild Pacific air will reach these regions Sunday into Monday followed by much colder air returning from the far north. The west will remain wet and mild with heavy mountain snowfalls above 1,000 metres. My local weather on Friday was quite wet and mild, high near 10 C and about 35 mm rain which is probably one of the wettest days we have seen in this rather dry winter season here.


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