UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

tinpib wrote: »

I think there is value in that Ansaroff/Suarez fight. Suarez is best price 1.14 right now, but you can get her to win by decision at 2.75, with the huge percentage of women's fights that go to decision it is a no-brainer with that big price difference.


The other value bet that stood out to me was Jimmie Rivera best price 3.75 I wasn't terribly impressed by Petr Yan last time. Lot of hype around him, was expecting him to take his opponents head clean off his shoulders last time so found him a bit underwhelming. So could be yet another UFC hype train getting derailed, Rivera is very experienced and has fought some of the best.


Not saying he will definitely win but I think the odds should be a lot closer so again he is a good value bet.

Both could be over priced but the 9/4 on suarez pts looks big to me, was expecting so see around 5/4 on that one.

so much hype around her though but ansaroff looked good against esparza last time out, pts look very likely to me.
not sure about yan, backed dodson to beat him, I thought the beating he gave dodson was a worse beating than any fighter gave dodson previously though so I'd be a believer but not at those odds either against a top guy tonight.

shevchenko to win by ko or sub 20/21


can anyone see eye going the distance, tough and all as she is?

I can't myself, she's too easy to hit and I could possibly see the doctor stopping it at some stage possibly.



betfred have fight of the night priced up also, obv fav is cerrone ferguson at 6/4 and you'd have to believe that once it goes past a round it's a near certainly with how these two fight. https://www.betfred.com/sports/event/14114523.2

I think lamas kattar at 20s is pretty big odds, both have good chins and I expect both of these to be swinging for the rafters at some stage.

I fancy moraes to get it done early to that would be ruling out the 4/1 on that one

tuivasa ivanov is next at 6s, if Ivanov picks up a fotn win I'll give up betting

rivera yan is possible but while I think it'll be a good fight I don't see it being the best fight

shevchenko will be a one sided beating so thats out

munhoz sterling...don't believe sterling will ever be involved in a fotn

the girls are 16s suarez lol grasso karolina don't see it

too big to me so I'll have a go at that.

5 timer for me tonight...

Wineland
Lamas
Suarez
Karolina
Tony

Pays 10/1

Lamas v Katter looks value at 20's for fotn. I think it'll be a belter.

mailburner wrote: »

And to rub it in...thanks Marlon

i hope you laid some of that off

Hard luck mailburner, that's a sickener. I thought Marlon winning was a foregone conclusion myself.

think martin could avoid a td and gets a pts win tonight 11/4

dont rate albini at all, greene was much shorter a week ago

doubled the two at 4/1 13/8+10/11 bet365

single on martin pts 11/4

single on jds pts 13/2 if he can avoid an early ko he has every
chance of doing what stipe did to francis
would really have fancied jds for this had it been 5+ yrs ago

weemcd wrote: »

Anyone taking Jan Blachowicz over Luke Rockhold? Decent price. Rockhold has been ko'd at Middleweight and is only fighting once a year at this point, is a move up in weight at 34 a good idea?

Nah Rockhold is the biggest cert of the night for me. Looked amazing at the weigh ins. Blachowiz too slow on the feet and won't hold a candle to him on the ground.

I've done a treble of Allen, Rockhold and Nunes via KO. Not much value in Nunes straight.

Debating a small single on Askren via decision at 11/10, I'll probably decide on that later (depending how many pints I'm after)

think the value of the card for me is masvidal at 19/10 and diego at 3/1

for me it's a similiar match up for ben as robbie lawlor was.
I think he'll take a lot of damage again and pts no doubt the only way
ben can win this
maia had a lot of trouble with masvidal and just about came away with the win and I guess if ben can hump jorge for two rounds he might just have done enough to win it
I'm thinking masvidal by ko 16/5, not great value when nearly 2s to win with pts slightly tempting at 8s
think if it goes three it might be ben though unfortunately


If I looked blindly at diegos odds of 3/1 I'd find it hard to believe it was chiesa he was fighting
Diego can definitely win this with the right tactics..going for take downs which probably wont happen
chiesa likes subs...diego never been subbed, chiesa never had a ko win either and chiesa has been subbed in two of his last three (pettis lee) and
while it's very much a longshot the odds of 17/1 on diego sub aren't bad at all.
I'll say it here..if diego goes to ground I really think he wins this.

tempted by markos at 2s only because of how disappointing gadelha has been over her past three fights or so
pts win for markos if it does happen for me 11/4

like nunes on pts also at double the ko odds...5/2
when has holm ever looked in trouble against anyone, think nunes will fight a lot more sensibly than she did against cyborg also.
I think holly may lose on pts but do think she's in with a real shout.



chance rencountre at 4s, really liked how he approached his last fight after his previous loss though I don't know his opponent but 4s looks big.

lastly gilbert melendez at 11/4
what has allen done to be a 1/4 shot is all I'm wondering, might win but 1/4:eek:


came on here with only masvidal and diego in mind and on my worst run in years...it could be bad for me

dulux99 wrote: »

Nah Rockhold is the biggest cert of the night for me. Looked amazing at the weigh ins. Blachowiz too slow on the feet and won't hold a candle to him on the ground.

I've done a treble of Allen, Rockhold and Nunes via KO. Not much value in Nunes straight.

Debating a small single on Askren via decision at 11/10, I'll probably decide on that later (depending how many pints I'm after)

Sorry if I put you off Rockhold there weemcd! Bad judgement by me. Rockhold was not at the races at all. Thankfully I stayed away from Askren.

uchimata83 wrote: »

With that weight cut is de randamie good value shy of evens?

best value of the card for me, she's a huge step up from eubanks for ladd who imo didnt look great against eubanks, really think she has a huge advantage standing


other underdogs I like are hall and even montano who has
a lot to prove here
pena is no world beater either
fili was the underdog a few days ago, not sure about ferreira either, could win but I dont trust him as a fighter

so far the i've only done the double of simon who cannot possibly lose
to faber and bektic who is a much better fighter all round that emmet but I think we could have another round three like we did against michael johnson (yes i was on mj) where he only had to avoid a ko in the third and almost did...possibly same scenario here and bektic was clipped late against elkins in the comeback of the year.

think it paid slighly over evens for simon and bektic which is now bigger at 2.15

I've 4 up out of 5 but no cash out
I hate you bet365

smilerf wrote: »

Lads I had 4 up out of 5 with the Dariush fight being cancelled
Bet365 messing me about.
What usually happens in this case
Thanks

The Dariush fight will be voided and you will win the 4 fold.

smilerf wrote: »

They're saying that I gotta wait 30 days. Such bull

Get on to them on Twitter, it should be voided. That rule is usually for boxing. I see it there in the t&cs alright.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2019/7/9/20687724/beneil-dariush-vs-drakkar-klose-scrapped-from-ufc-sacramento

Send them that and tell them it won't be happening in the next 30 days because the cards are finalized and see what they say.