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01-03-2020, 23:12   #1006
M.T. Cranium
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Maybe some of the disconnect in this discussion comes from the fact that our weather forum chose (several years ago) to tag the threads with the highest level of alert issued by Met E. This may create an impression that the weather forum endorses the warning levels and the system of county by county warnings.

There is no actual behind the scenes structure to this weather forum that could justify any such assumptions. People have fallen into certain roles, more by the absence of anyone else who wants to fill them. We don't have some committee assigning tasks or responsibilities. The decision to follow Met E warnings came after a period when individual thread starters were randomly assigning what they thought should be the alert levels. With both Darwin and Ophelia we were having some background chats among half a dozen mods and leading posters, about when to go red. If I remember correctly, we actually went red with Darwin before the met service did. With Ophelia we were into the co-ordinated alert era.

The only thing likely to improve if we went back to the old system (where we called the alert level ourselves) might be that we would probably twin these independent alerts to maps showing where they applied. If you're going to go independent, your first move would probably be to free yourself up from the county by county problem.

OTOH, you would introduce the element of the decision-maker(s) coming up with a less accurate overall alert structure than the Met (even after the county by county handicap). This might be a source of derision if we overdid it, and serious legal trouble for Boards.ie if we underdid things. Even over at IWO, we take the same approach -- better to co-ordinate and hope for a good performance, than to issue independent warnings as some do, and end up with bad results and trouble that can be avoided by saying, "this is the official alert, take it or leave it."

But we can improve the status quo by issuing interpretations of the alerts that attempt to pinpoint the actual boundaries.

Timing is a separate issue. It was fairly obvious from most of the guidance that north Mayo, Sligo, north Leitrim and west Ulster would be waiting a long time to get into the stronger winds, and when they did, the storm might be in a declining phase. I'm not sure if a lot of the public whether interacting with our thread or not, caught that detail, but I think the met service warnings did.

I hope we have one more interesting storm because I am eager to try to upgrade our response in the ways described, if the moderators permit. But I think we are stuck with the overall structure of colour coding our threads in lock-step, otherwise we are openly saying we think we can do better. Maybe we can and maybe we cannot. The past record on that is mixed.

So I think it has been a good discussion to have, it's natural that people who do put forward an effort here might think, well if we're going to read ambiguous criticism of forecasts, let's at least put out our own forecasts rather than having a hybrid system of partly their forecasts, partly our own, and hope it all blends into one comprehensive united entity. Sometimes as with Ophelia there are fairly sharp differences of opinion (as we had for areas likely to be west of its track). With this past event, differences were more subtle and I don't know if six different people had been asked to make independent forecasts, perhaps three would have been improvements and three would be non-improvements.
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01-03-2020, 23:25   #1007
 
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Funster, it seems like common sense isn't so common anymore

I'm moving to the Kerry coast where there won't be so many trees and hedges around the house so I'll probably be commenting very different experiences on future boards storm threads.
When are you moving,? Have you been invited to move?
Have you been issued with your visa and can you sport a flat cap and talk unintelligibly?
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01-03-2020, 23:26   #1008
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question for sryanbruen -- can you link to where you first ranked the storms from before the original set we ranked? I would like to see how directly the index values compare. If those storms exceeded recent ones even with a handicap of fewer locations to add up points, I would suggest a correction factor but I don't know what would be an accurate one without seeing the stations in play. Thanks.
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01-03-2020, 23:29   #1009
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When are you moving,? Have you been invited to move?
Have you been issued with your visa and can you sport a flat cap and talk unintelligibly?
Hahaha
I'm hoping within the month. I take it most places were closed on Friday with the storm. I couldn't get through to the estate agent.

Im hoping my Cork ancestry might kind of qualify me? Its close to Cork, on the Beara peninsula.
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01-03-2020, 23:33   #1010
 
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Hahaha
I'm hoping within the month. I take it most places were closed on Friday with the storm. I couldn't get through to the estate agent.

Im hoping my Cork ancestry might kind of qualify me? Its close to Cork, on the Beara peninsula.
Nothing closed. Hardy lot those Kerry boys.
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01-03-2020, 23:33   #1011
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Below image is of one of the last squally showers in Clew Bay heading for Westport this evening:
Attached Images
File Type: jpg Bye bye Jorge.jpg (1.43 MB, 171 views)
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02-03-2020, 10:08   #1012
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Below image is of one of the last squally showers in Clew Bay heading for Westport this evening:
If Paul Henry had been a photographer, he'd have been proud of that one!

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02-03-2020, 17:28   #1013
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
question for sryanbruen -- can you link to where you first ranked the storms from before the original set we ranked? I would like to see how directly the index values compare. If those storms exceeded recent ones even with a handicap of fewer locations to add up points, I would suggest a correction factor but I don't know what would be an accurate one without seeing the stations in play. Thanks.
Something Like this?

Up to Lorenzo if anyone interested 8pm



Map of warning and stations


Map of reported gusts and stations

Last edited by spookwoman; 02-03-2020 at 20:00.
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02-03-2020, 20:50   #1014
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back as far as start of 2019


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02-03-2020, 21:33   #1015
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
question for sryanbruen -- can you link to where you first ranked the storms from before the original set we ranked? I would like to see how directly the index values compare. If those storms exceeded recent ones even with a handicap of fewer locations to add up points, I would suggest a correction factor but I don't know what would be an accurate one without seeing the stations in play. Thanks.
If you mean the one where I calculated mean max gusts for all the storms in my table MT, here. Honestly completely forgot about that. Hasn't been updated since Storm Gareth of last year! I can update this and add to the stats thread which is here in case you don't know about it already.

EDIT: Actually, you are referring to the daily mean max gusts that indicated the windiest days in terms of gusts, here.

Here's your original post for a Storm Index that I used in the post.

This storm business should be my thesis
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02-03-2020, 21:57   #1016
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Sryanbruen, what I was asking, when you added a few historic storms to the index, how many stations went into the index values and what if any reduction did that lead to, for those older events, as compared to the list of stations you use more recently?

Just a question as to direct comparison of the index values. I suppose if it's a case where now there are a few more inland places that rarely get above yellow, and otherwise it's 1:1, then the older storms would not be reduced very much. If on the other hand there are one or two more places where a storm can often score 3-4 points, compared to those earlier storms, then we should probably be boosting the older index values by something like 15-20 per cent?

They are already doing well against the more recent set anyway.

Jorge settled into the bottom third of the table, could quite honestly say that I was expecting an outcome closer to 40 or 45 but it is what it is.
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02-03-2020, 22:13   #1017
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Sryanbruen, what I was asking, when you added a few historic storms to the index, how many stations went into the index values and what if any reduction did that lead to, for those older events, as compared to the list of stations you use more recently?

Just a question as to direct comparison of the index values. I suppose if it's a case where now there are a few more inland places that rarely get above yellow, and otherwise it's 1:1, then the older storms would not be reduced very much. If on the other hand there are one or two more places where a storm can often score 3-4 points, compared to those earlier storms, then we should probably be boosting the older index values by something like 15-20 per cent?

They are already doing well against the more recent set anyway.

Jorge settled into the bottom third of the table, could quite honestly say that I was expecting an outcome closer to 40 or 45 but it is what it is.
Older ones had 14 stations considered whilst new ones had 20 stations considered - all of them can be seen in the tables themselves in my post. There are at least a few more storms I would think of adding to the mix including 8 December 1993 and 17/18 January 2007.

Darwin likely gets the edge on old storms because of the station count rather than being a worse storm than say 9 February 1988.
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