General Irish Government discussion thread [See Post 1805]

Banner fights back wrote: »

It appears according to the Sunday Times newspaper that the Minister for finance Pascal Donohue will bring proposals to cabinet next week regarding the covid -19 unemployment payment of 350 euro.

It looks like that for those that were earning less than 350 euro a week before covid-19 struck that they will go transferred back on the normal jobseekers benefit. This could come into force by the 9th of June when the payment is due to expire.

Once again the vested narrow minded interests of the Business community to which Fg are a bit too cosy with trump the interests of ordinary hard working citizens. The FG narrative that "this payment disincentivises people going back to work" will get no leeway with people as once again it's the poorest in society that will suffer the greatest hardship.

It proves the point that FG have not changed one slight despite their disastrous GE showing last February. The Greens will be most foolish to join with this elitist party who once again put the vested interests of big business and those with deep pockets ahead of those struggling to put food on the table.

How does not paying more to people for not working than working prove that point?

I don't think this is about people on the minimum wage, it's about those working one or two days a week mostly.

Seems to indicate this might be longer term then expected

Banner fights back wrote: »

Many people would agree with that point you made. But we are talking about FG here and they always seem to have this fixation agenda against low paid workers. While you are correct in saying that it would be mostly part time workers that will be mainly affected with this change, as Richard Boyd Barrett pointed out in many cases part time jobs are the only solution for many workers due to issues getting alternative childcare one such prime example.

FG have major issue with people who are getting less paid in work than in receipt of some form of Social welfare. But it's such a shame they can't be as vocal on tackling tax exiles or introducing more progressive economic policies. It's a question of trust and as I said in my last post, vocal corporate interests are getting too much say in govt policy but we we know Fg have a far too cosy relationship with big business and corporations which spells bad news for hard working citizens who for many feel that FG continue to neglect them.

We have the second highest minimum wage in the EU. Many would agree because its true

Would be very interesting to see the percentage of the cases this will affect though

Banner fights back wrote: »

It appears according to the Sunday Times newspaper that the Minister for finance Pascal Donohue will bring proposals to cabinet next week regarding the covid -19 unemployment payment of 350 euro.

It looks like that for those that were earning less than 350 euro a week before covid-19 struck that they will go transferred back on the normal jobseekers benefit. This could come into force by the 9th of June when the payment is due to expire.

Once again the vested narrow minded interests of the Business community to which Fg are a bit too cosy with trump the interests of ordinary hard working citizens. The FG narrative that "this payment disincentivises people going back to work" will get no leeway with people as once again it's the poorest in society that will suffer the greatest hardship.

It proves the point that FG have not changed one slight despite their disastrous GE showing last February. The Greens will be most foolish to join with this elitist party who once again put the vested interests of big business and those with deep pockets ahead of those struggling to put food on the table.

If you earned less than €350 for working before the pandemic, why should you get even more for not working during it?

Good loser wrote: »

This is your third post in a row comprising fact free, broad brush, attacks on FG. Have you any facts and figures that support your opinions?
If you are impressed by ANYTHING Boyd Barrett says - as you seem to be - I doubt if you have.
While searching you might keep in mind that Fg brought the unemplyment rate from 15% to 5% and balanced the books while doing so.
Credit where credit is due.

Maybe he is Richard BB!

CrabRevolution wrote: »

If you earned less than €350 for working before the pandemic, why should you get even more for not working during it?

They had a simple rule about it, if it stopped you working you got paid the PUP. It was crude, flawed but very fast to implement and it's taxable income.

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I understand that and it's reasonable enough, but the poster I was responding to said that it's wrong for the government to taper the payments down to better reflect the earnings people had before the pandemic,i.e. the actual money they are down because of the pandemic.

I just don't see the reasoning for paying people more for doing nothing than they were earning for actually doing work. What aspect of the pandemic justifies that?

The aspect that the point of this is not just to protect individuals from the economic impact of the pandemic on them, but to protect the wider economy by injecting funds which will maintain consumer spending, and doing so as early as possible.

Ireland isn't the only country where some very low earners get more through pandemic payments than they were previously earning - it happens also in Australia, and I wouldn't be in the least surprised to find it happening elsewhere. The purpose isn't to confer particular good fortune on the individuals concerned, but to have a simple, quick-to-implement system that will rapidly inject funds that are widely spread in the economy. The particular good fortune to the individuals is a by-product.

The usual objection - that this disincentivizes work - is met by pointing out that this is a temporary and short-term scheme. The incentive to work will be restored before very long, and in the meantime it's not a big problem, since a labour shortage is one of the few challenges that the economy doesn't face.

Good loser wrote: »

Interesting - and relevant. You are making a macro economic point.
I would, though, prefer to direct the money towards the SMEs and the self employed. For instance the LA rates could be paid for directly by the State for all SMEs.

Possibly. I think a key factor in this is the ability to hit the ground running - get the money paid out as early as possible. The advantage of distributing it through the social welfare system and/or the PAYG system is that those systems are already up and running and payments are constantly flowing through them; I don't know if there's an existing comparable and rapid distribution system that covers the SMEs (and that identifies SMEs separately from other participants). The other point, of course, is that paying rates doesn't provide any cash flow benefits to SMEs until the due date for rates payments arrives (and I have no idea when that is).

Still, your basic point is sound. A direct and immediate subsidy to SMEs to keep as many of them trading as is possible would be very beneficial. Again, there would be unintended good fortune for those SMEs who would have remained trading anyway, and for those that actually enjoy better trading conditions as a result of the pandemic.

Banner fights back wrote: »

The mood music 're the government formation talks appears less rosy in the garden than what was the case around a week or 10 days ago.

The consequences of no government by the end of June are huge as social welfare payments won't roll over a month, unless the Seanad can meet and of course we need a permanent Taoiseach for that to happen, so to pass the social welfare estimates into law and other legislation.

Could Mary Lou McDonald still become Taoiseach if the govt formation talks collapse or one of the 3 of FF, FG or Greens can't get the programme for government through their party membership? Don't rule anything out in the most drawn out of processes.

The prospect of GE 2020 2.0 remains very high IMO.

I think we have a few more cards to play before Michael D would give the go ahead for an election.
Micheal Martin could go back to the party and seek permission to talk to SF. Then having got that dump FG and line up a coalition with SF Soc Dems and a few indos

Edgware wrote: »

I think we have a few more cards to play before Michael D would give the go ahead for an election.
Micheal Martin could go back to the party and seek permission to talk to SF. Then having got that dump FG and line up a coalition with SF Soc Dems and a few indos

LOL

That's the last thing Micheal Martin would do.
The FF party might however force him to start talking to SF or face an immediate leadership challenge instead.
Micheal Martin is so desperate to be Taoiseach that he probably would start talking to Sinn Fein and publicly take back everything he has said if that was his only option of being Taoiseach even if it was for only a matter of months.

Of course Micheal Martin will regurgitate the same quote he made earlier this year, and claim that he hasn't done yet another U-turn

“We will not be entering into a grand coalition, people want change, it’s very clear, the message we’re receiving [is] people want change in this country, they want Fine Gael out of office,” he said.

The real question is would SF actually entertain the whole idea?
A general election would probably result in FF losing yet more seats and both SF and FG gaining seats.
The conundrum for SF would be do they go for another election expecting to gain more seats, but more importantly expecting parties that they would consider likely coalition partners also gaining seats so that combined they get that magic number of 80 seats in the Dail, or accept a coalition with FF knowing than many sparks will fly and it will be a stormy 4 years in government if Michael Martin remains leader of FF.

BonnieSituation wrote: »

FF have to go into coalition with FG. SF is odd the menu now with MM in charge. They have zero credibility at this point. Martin is solely looking out for himself here so he will do anything to ensure he's in power by the end of these negotiations.

FG have a chance to neuter FF going forward once they keep the Taoiseach, Finance and DFA.

Relent on any of them and they've rehabilitated FF and could see themselves dwindle at the next GE.

But surely FG need FF to survive now more than ever.

This is the way I see it.
With the majority of the electoral vote now split three ways and not as before between FF and FG, the likelihood of any party forming a government with a handful of independents, or the Dail whores (sorry I meant to say the Labour party) is virtually nill. With that in mind who could FG rely on as a coalition partner that could deliver enough seats in the Dail.

Without FF having sufficient seats in the Dail, FG are goosed because the left of centre parties will naturally prefer a SF coalition rather than a FG coalition. It would be hard to see how FG could ever form a government unless they were winning around 60 seats in an election.

In effect FG need FF to dilute the left of centre vote, and that will not happen if FF are neutered or diminished.

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I don't think so. Centrist liberal voters will coalesce around FG. What do FF offer them?

We're going to see a proper Nordic-esque realignment. And FF are gonna be the losers. And not before time.

I just don't see how FF can reignite a base in urban areas that SF, FG and Greens/SD have. They're going to spend their time picking up votes for the likes of conservative Catholics and very little else.

FG have been pretty consistent throughout the whole government formation process. FF have flip flopped at every turn and based on the murmurings a few weeks back with leaks from the talks, there's no discipline and FG are running rings around them.

I take your point that a lot of those that would consider themselves centrists might throw their lot in with FG, but there will be many of them that wont, especially after having been through the austerity measures after the banking crisis, where poor old joe public middle income worker bore the brunt, while the wealthy, and those on social welfare felt austerity least. Some of these people are still dealing with the repercussions of austerity and to tell them there's more on the way because of the massive government debts due to covid is hardly going to have them queuing up to vote for FG again.

The problem for FG will be they will need enough of the FF vote to swing them to get at least 60 seats if they ever wanted the chance of forming a government. Personally I cant see that type of swing happening if FF imploded like Labour have, but politics is a strange beast. Realistically you are looking at the majority of the FF vote migrating to FG for FG to be anyway sure of forming a government again. Essentially they would be waiting for a SF government to make such a balls up that a massive swing would be likely. Both FG ad FF have made a balls up on many occasions, so its fair to assume that if SF got into government on a number of occasions they would too.