Dublin mid west election 2020

No SD candidate.

Who to vote for now?

Didn't vote in the by election as it was a joke having it, as we knew an election was coming. Alot of people were of the same opinion as me, so I believe Ward's seat is not a real view of things.


Here is my view on the list

Fine Gael Vicki Casserly - good locally but not sure she is a TD level
Fianna Fáil John Curran - Never heard from him until election time.
Independent Paul Gogarty - Like Paul, good green agenda not too many posters up
Fine Gael Emer Higgins - Does this woman ever stop putting posters up all over Lucan, never heard from her or see anything she does
Renua Howard Hughes : ?
Green Party Peter Kavanagh : Not heard much from
Solidarity–PBP Gino Kenny : Never heard from since he got elected
Fianna Fáil Catriona McClean : Never heard from her.
Inds. 4 Change Ruth Nolan : Just know the posters
Sinn Féin Eoin Ó Broin : Seems quite active in the dail
Independent Francis Timmons : who?
Labour Party Joanna Tuffy : Past it, never does anything for lucan
Sinn Féin Mark Ward : Never heard a word from it before the by election or since


Predictions:


O Broin, Gogarty, Casserly, Curran


My Vote:


Gogarty, Casserly, O' Broin (maybe)

Fine Gael Vicki Casserly
Never heard of her, seen her posters up and googled her. Good idea to run her seeing as lucan has no TD at the moment. Might take votes from Gogarty aswell which would probably aid Higghins

Fianna Fáil John Curran
Elected, no doubt, a Clondalkin village lock vote tbh

Independent Paul Gogarty
Should do well in Lucan/Palmerstown and might get over the line

Fine Gael Emer Higgins
The party candidate they expect to get elected. Mistake theyve made here is she isn't from Clondalkin/Lucan so wont have the big catchment areas covered. Should do well in Saggart/Rathcoole

Renua Howard Hughes
Never heard of him

Green Party Peter Kavanagh
Seemed active but Gogarty running will attract some of the green vote

Solidarity–PBP Gino Kenny
Cant see him being reelected, Ward will take votes from him as will O'Broin

Fianna Fáil Catriona McClean
Another Lucan resident, the cynic in me thinks both herself and Casserly were strategically selected to both take from Gogarty and transfer well to running mates.

Inds. 4 Change Ruth Nolan
No idea

Sinn Féin Eoin Ó Broin
Elected, would have fancied him to top the poll but with Ward running, first preferences will split.

Independent Francis Timmons
Will attract his usual 1200ish votes

Labour Party Joanna Tuffy
Toxic brand in the area, Tuffy ahead of Dowds again based on location. Tuffy isn't great and not very visible from what I've seen in recent years

Sinn Féin Mark Ward
Could get a 2nd Sinn Fein seat, would need a lot of things to fall into place but has strong local support, will take a fair bit of the Gino vote but the vote split will be important.[/quote]

Curran, O'Broin, Higgins and Gogarty to be elected I reckon. If Higgins doesnt transfer well then Ward could come into play depending on turnout. A high turnout here is bad for FF/FG in some ways

duffman13 wrote: »

First canvasser to my door tonight and it was Sinn Fein, no big team, just one older lad knocking doors. Very clear instruction to vote O Broin 1 and Ward 2, be interested to see if they are doing that across the board or trying to split the constituency in some way

They're splitting the constituency. The one two is the other way around in other areas.

I've never voted Sinn Fein but to suggest, as an earlier poster did, that Mark Ward hadn't been heard from is pretty ridiculous. He was hyperactive as mayor of SDCC and introduced a bill on his first or second day in the Dail.

why is there no SD candidate? anne marie mcnally not bothered to run?

Statement by McNally:

I had Emer Higgins for Fine Gael at my door. Her aide called in and I informed him that the last 2 FG I voted for (Derek Keating and Frances Fitzgerald) turned out to be disasters. The aide just stared blankly at me and called Higgins over who got very defensive about Fitzgerald saying she sacrificed herself for her country and walked off in a huff!!

Won't be voting her anyway

Not sure John Curran is as safe as he used to be..

He is never seen locally, perceived to do very little for the area and did not support the Repeal of the 8th.

A lot of voters I’ve spoken to want some non Clondalkin based Tds. Also there is currently no female representation.

Dodge wrote: »

Well to be fair there’s only no female or non-Clondalkin representation since Fitzgerald.

In the 2011 elections there were 3 from outside Clondalkin and 2 women

For what it’s worth I think voting people (or locations) rather than parties is a big problem in general elections. They’re supposed to be running the country, not doing the work of councillors

Just because there is no female TD since Fitzgerald doesn’t mean there isn’t a certain desire for it, especially since the Repeal of the 8th.

Yes, I agree people should vote for those who can and will run the country. It’s not going to happen very soon. There has been so much corruption and neglect on a national and local scale that people want to see an active local TD, who they feel they can have confidence in. Yes councillors should be doing a lot of certain types of queries but they often don’t, can’t or don’t have the pull. Again, that’s just my reading.

I’m not sure any seat is comfortably safe but Sinn Fein know how to get the vote out.

I feel sorry for Emer Higgins, she does try, but comes across impatient at times and Fine Gael are no longer in favour.

Pity about Anne Marie Mc Nally. Tuffy is not talked about around me as a strong candidate. Timmons is well respected but I don’t think his profile is high enough to win a seat.

People generally seem to want big change.

Pixied wrote: »

Just because there is no female TD since Fitzgerald doesn’t mean there isn’t a certain desire for it, especially since the Repeal of the 8th.

Yes, I agree people should vote for those who can and will run the country. It’s not going to happen very soon. There has been so much corruption and neglect on a national and local scale that people want to see an active local TD, who they feel they can have confidence in. Yes councillors should be doing a lot of certain types of queries but they often don’t, can’t or don’t have the pull. Again, that’s just my reading.

I’m not sure any seat is comfortably safe but Sinn Fein know how to get the vote out.

I feel sorry for Emer Higgins, she does try, but comes across impatient at times and Fine Gael are no longer in favour.

Pity about Anne Marie Mc Nally. Tuffy is not talked about around me as a strong candidate. Timmons is well respected but I don’t think his profile is high enough to win a seat.

People generally seem to want big change.

The problem you have here is all of them are somewhat weak candidates or lack profile. Out of them Higgins is competent and would probably be a good representative for the area but here association with the current government will cost her. Mind you I'd consider Gino Kenny a very weak candidate but he'll get a certain cohort voting for him.

Tuffy isn't a good orator and isn't very present from what I've seen. O'Brioin and Curran are probably the two most coherent politicians in the area although Curran is probably based off past performance as opposed to the last 10 years.

You would think if the Greens ran a strong female, lucan based candidate they'd poll well and transfer well too just based on demographics and location. Gogarty is a thoroughly unlikeable politician IMO but will mop up a lot of the lucan palmerstown vote

emo72 wrote: »

If you don't want to vote FFFGLAB there's not a lot of options left is there? Have to say there's a complete dearth of quality.

Sometimes wonder are we better off not voting at all and send a message that way

I think that Paul Gogarty will poll well.
In my experience he is the only representative that actually does anything for Palmerstown.
None of the other candidates seem to think that Palmerstown is even in the constituency, they represent either Lucan or Clondalkin. That will be a factor in the overall result.