Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

sryanbruen · 10-10-2018 7:48pm

According to Nick L, this month's ECM seasonal update shows an easterly December, an anticyclonic January whilst a positive NAO February. Would be decent if it were to verify I have to say.

Artane2002 · 10-10-2018 8:06pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

According to Nick L, this month's ECM seasonal update shows an easterly December, an anticyclonic January whilst a positive NAO February. Would be decent if it were to verify I have to say.

3 more days until we can see them, hopefully December looks as juicy as it sounds. These are his current thoughts for winter

Anyway, I'm giving a presentation tomorrow on a winter forecast so here goes. Front-ended cold winter with a largely blocked pattern through December and January, mild more likely going into Feb. Negative QBO is transitioning into a positive one through winter which isn't good for cold, but we are now at the very bottom of the solar cycle which plays very much into our favour for a colder winter. ECMWF seasonal* supports this, but then again the UKMO and CFS do not..

nacho libre · 10-10-2018 8:41pm

How accurate was the ECM seasonal last year in comparison to the CFS?
If that is the Nick L, i think it is, he is one of the better contributers on netweather, he is not prone to hyperbole, or letting personal preference get in the way- which often leads to a lot of hopecasting rather than forecasting over on netweather.

sryanbruen · 10-10-2018 8:45pm

nacho libre wrote: »

How accurate was the ECM seasonal last year in comparison to the CFS?
If that is the Nick L, i think it is is, he is one of the better contributers on netweather, he is not porone to hyperbole, or letting personal reference get in the way- which often leads to a lot of hopecasting rather than forecasting over on netweather.

In its November update, it was near perfect for a long range forecast.

nacho libre · 10-10-2018 8:57pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

In its November update, it was near perfect for a long range forecast.

Good stuff. By the way was the QBO in 2010 similar to what it is now- esaterly but projected to go westerly during winter. Also isn't there a lag effect to consider before it transitions from one state to the other?

sryanbruen · 11-10-2018 6:28pm

From my own interpretations of the ECM tri-monthly MSLP anomalies:

October update of the ECM seasonal model for Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb show a lot of easterly potential but the high is slightly anchored over towards eastern Europe than directly over Scandinavia, this could be quite problematic and easterly winds just missing the UK and Ireland.

Mount Vesuvius · 11-10-2018 7:29pm

Umm potential battleground scenarios there. Fingers crossed.

Loughc · 11-10-2018 9:09pm

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Umm potential battleground scenarios there. Fingers crossed.

Username kinda checks out.

JCX BXC · 11-10-2018 9:12pm

Loughc wrote: »

Username kinda checks out.

Ah now, two of these on the one page! *Importing new sence of humour*

Loughc · 11-10-2018 9:12pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Ah now, two of these on the one page! *Importing new sence of humour*

*sense :pac:

ZX7R · 11-10-2018 9:29pm

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Umm potential battleground scenarios there. Fingers crossed.

I normally don't like battle ground scenarios , due to the fact we are always looking across the sea at Brittan wining the battle,and us looking out the window at pouring rain

Charles Babbage · 12-10-2018 12:25am

ZX7R wrote: »

I normally don't like battle ground scenarios , due to the fact we are always looking across the sea at Brittan wining the battle,and us looking out the window at pouring rain

Did we not have a famous win in 1982?

sryanbruen · 12-10-2018 4:54pm

ECM seasonal model monthly charts are out publicly now, they're exactly what others have been saying, very easterly December, anticyclonic January whilst westerly/unsettled February. November also looks like there's some easterly or northerly potential. Looks a lot like Winter 1996-97 to me.

November:

December:

January:

February:

Mount Vesuvius · 12-10-2018 5:52pm

I'd prefer the January set up, as the Scandinavian high anomaly is better positioned for us to ward off high attacking westerlies. ie better chance of slider lows.

hatrickpatrick · 12-10-2018 5:56pm

I remember a few years ago everyone went nuts over the OPI (October Pattern Index) as an indicator of the upcoming winter; haven't heard much about it in recent years so I'm assuming the correlation there turned out to be a bust and therefore not useful to us?

Artane2002 · 12-10-2018 6:12pm

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I remember a few years ago everyone went nuts over the OPI (October Pattern Index) as an indicator of the upcoming winter; haven't heard much about it in recent years so I'm assuming the correlation there turned out to be a bust and therefore not useful to us?

They still are going nuts over it on Netweather.

sryanbruen · 12-10-2018 8:16pm

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I remember a few years ago everyone went nuts over the OPI (October Pattern Index) as an indicator of the upcoming winter; haven't heard much about it in recent years so I'm assuming the correlation there turned out to be a bust and therefore not useful to us?

The OPI for October 2014 was the second most negative on record so brought a lot of hype for Winter 2014-15 in the possibility of a very negative AO thus increasing the chances quite highly of a cold Winter. That wasn't what happened in the end, though not as stormy as its predecessor, 2014-15 was another stormy and zonal Winter (if a little on the chilly side for a zonal dominated Winter). That's the history that I know anyway of it. I wasn't here the days when it was being discussed. I tried estimating the OPI last year for my Winter methodology tables and forecasting 2017-18 because I thought it was a good methodology despite the 2014-15 failure.

Here's the graph of the OPI and Central England Temperature relationship for interest.

Artane2002 · 12-10-2018 9:10pm

Here's a tweet I found in relation to the AO.

https://twitter.com/longrangesnow/status/1050723650536538112

ZX7R · 12-10-2018 10:11pm

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Did we not have a famous win in 1982?

Yes, but I have been waiting 36 years for another...

derekon · 13-10-2018 10:22am

MT Cranium's initial thoughts for Ireland's Winter 2018/2019 look promising for cold and snow fans, these thoughts were posted this morning on his daily outlook thread.............................:)

D

I have been working on a winter outlook. Early indications suggest it could be quite a cold winter but I think it would be prudent to set late November as a check-in time for any later revisions and a better idea of the details. This will give me a chance to check some developing guidelines for what I suspect may be developing. In any case, I don't expect this colder regime to make much of a showing before late November at the earliest. So the best way to put this is, potential for a cold winter, waiting to see if trends develop as expected that will give better confidence in that rather unusual outlook (unusual for me anyway, I guess it is the annual event for the tabloids).

derekon · 13-10-2018 10:24am

MT Cranium's initial thoughts for Ireland's Winter 2018/2019 look promising for cold and snow fans, these thoughts were posted this morning on his daily outlook thread.............................:)

D

I have been working on a winter outlook. Early indications suggest it could be quite a cold winter but I think it would be prudent to set late November as a check-in time for any later revisions and a better idea of the details. This will give me a chance to check some developing guidelines for what I suspect may be developing. In any case, I don't expect this colder regime to make much of a showing before late November at the earliest. So the best way to put this is, potential for a cold winter, waiting to see if trends develop as expected that will give better confidence in that rather unusual outlook (unusual for me anyway, I guess it is the annual event for the tabloids).

sryanbruen · 13-10-2018 10:24am

derekon wrote: »

MT Cranium's initial thoughts for Ireland's Winter 2018/2019 look promising for cold and snow fans, these thoughts were posted this morning on his daily outlook thread.............................:)

D

I have been working on a winter outlook. Early indications suggest it could be quite a cold winter but I think it would be prudent to set late November as a check-in time for any later revisions and a better idea of the details. This will give me a chance to check some developing guidelines for what I suspect may be developing. In any case, I don't expect this colder regime to make much of a showing before late November at the earliest. So the best way to put this is, potential for a cold winter, waiting to see if trends develop as expected that will give better confidence in that rather unusual outlook (unusual for me anyway, I guess it is the annual event for the tabloids).

He posted the full early thoughts on Netweather and man, that is one heck of an intriguing forecast.

derekon · 13-10-2018 10:26am

sryanbruen wrote: »

He posted the full early thoughts on Netweather and man, that is one heck of an intriguing forecast.

Thanks Sryanbruen, i will check it out! Folks, he goes under the name Roger J Smith over there on Netweather!

D

derekon · 13-10-2018 10:39am

sryanbruen wrote: »

He posted the full early thoughts on Netweather and man, that is one heck of an intriguing forecast.

Hi Sryanbruen, would you have a link to his early thoughts ? I cannot find it on the Netweather forum !

Thanks

D

sryanbruen · 13-10-2018 10:45am

derekon wrote: »

Hi Sryanbruen, would you have a link to his early thoughts ? I cannot find it on the Netweather forum !

Thanks

D

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?do=findComment&comment=3911916

Artane2002 · 13-10-2018 10:46am

sryanbruen wrote: »

He posted the full early thoughts on Netweather and man, that is one heck of an intriguing forecast.

It is a delicious outlook

sryanbruen · 13-10-2018 11:45am

The most interesting part I found personally was:

Parts of eastern Canada may be unusually mild with the storm track tending to run north from near Cape Cod into eastern Quebec province.

A very mild eastern Canada could be excellent news for cold in Europe. For one example, notice the very warm area over eastern and northern Canada in November 2010 below (which is likely what people on here were referring to last year when they said "Canadian Warming"?).

derekon · 13-10-2018 11:48am

sryanbruen wrote: »

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?do=findComment&comment=3911916

Thanks very much!

derekon · 13-10-2018 11:56am

Artane2002 wrote: »

It is a delicious outlook

I would say its a VERY delicious outlook!!

MT is usually very accurate and it would appear we are in for a far from boring winter if his forecast verifies!!

D

Artane2002 · 13-10-2018 12:21pm

derekon wrote: »

I would say its a VERY delicious outlook!! MT is usually very accurate and it would appear we are in for a far from boring winter if his forecast verifies!!

D

I decided to reread his winter outlook from last year and I was amazed by how accurate it was considering it was a long range forecast. He nailed the January stormy periods that he predicted, which is the part I found the most amazing because he gave exact dates from 2 months out! I'm going to take a look at more of his winter LRFs.

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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