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Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭kittyn


    So many twists and turns and I’d say a lot of model fatigue lol ��


  • Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭Defaulter1831


    It's great to have such depth of cold in Europe.

    Often we'd be speaking of no cold in Europe and having to get that in place etc. So lots of good signs as we move to 8th January.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    gabeeg wrote: »
    Where's the ramping, lads?

    People probably don't want to end up disappointed if things go wrong (at the moment though it's more likely to work in our favour)


  • Registered Users Posts: 353 ✭✭Daffodil.d


    Quick question. Does the jet stream have to be flowing below us for us to get any significant cold/ snowy weather. I was looking at the Jet stream map and it doesn't take a dip until next Wednesday and even at that its brief. Im asking the experts because I haven't a clue.
    thanks


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito




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  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    This day 37 years ago the big snow of 1982 hit Dublin what a snowfest that was would love a repeat.


  • Registered Users Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    This day 37 years ago the big snow of 1982 hit Dublin what a snowfest that was would love a repeat.

    op91eq.jpg

    2a9rxav.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    Poland update.........Just to make you all jealous.
    I'm sure you've seen all the photos on social media and now the mainstream UK news. We have over 60cm of lying snow now, but the last 12 hours the wind has really picked up and blowing it all over the shop. It's the first time ive ever seen trucks coming to take the mounted up snow away (As its blocking car parks and streets).
    Its not really that cold at the moment, last few days -10 day and -16 nights, with today bringing milder westerly airflow of -5 currently.
    A new storm is slipping down from the North West now and the snow today began this morning.
    Usually snow and winter weather doesn't really affect daily routines here, but like I said there is trouble getting around as streets and parking areas are very hard to navigate and the sheer weight of snow on buildings are causing concern.
    The school I work in was shut after lessons finished at 12.30 today so they could clear snow from the roofs.
    I know the social media platforms are full of photos so I wont post any (Unless I find or take any of interest).


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,551 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The UK Met Office have a live discussion on twitter at 1 pm if anyone is interested


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs




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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    The GFS runs are hopeless, it's quite funny really.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    The UK Met Office have a live discussion on twitter at 1 pm if anyone is interested

    They're always quite good
    The stand out points from this one on the SSW were that it's as big as last year's but 6 weeks earlier so the windows of opportunity for wintry incursions from the east or north east are bigger,also bear in mind the snow cover over much of Europe means very little modification of any air advected our way,colder in fact than last year should it advect, of which there's a pretty good chance if you follow?


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    They're always quite good
    The stand out points from this one on the SSW were that it's as big as last year's but 6 weeks earlier so the windows of opportunity for wintry incursions from the east or north east are bigger,also bear in mind the snow cover over much of Europe means very little modification of any air advected our way,colder in fact than last year should it advect, of which there's a pretty good chance if you follow?

    Yep video is at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3dyOjjRBts



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Very nice day now after a mostly cloudy morning in Dublin.

    https://twitter.com/snowbiewx/status/1082633529245265920?s=21


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    They're always quite good
    The stand out points from this one on the SSW were that it's as big as last year's but 6 weeks earlier so the windows of opportunity for wintry incursions from the east or north east are bigger,also bear in mind the snow cover over much of Europe means very little modification of any air advected our way,colder in fact than last year should it advect, of which there's a pretty good chance if you follow?

    Those 6 weeks could make a big difference if the SSW event pans our in our favour. Let's say if central and eastern Europe continue to hold their cold and we get an event similar to last years Beast From the East in say 3 to 4 weeks time, It would most likely be a hell of a lot colder than what we experienced end of February/beginning of March last year. Temperatures would most likely be sub zero by day in most places.

    While 'The Beast From The East/Storm Emma' were great events, it happened just that little bit too late in the season for it to stick around for a decent length of time and as soon as the snow stopped falling, the dripping started to rapidly impact the snow depths, we lost most of our general lying snow within 3 days, with only partial drifts left in sheltered ditch's after that.

    Fingers crossed we get something decent over the next 3 to 4 weeks, the depth of cold would probably be more similar to December 2010.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,107 ✭✭✭highdef


    Agree completely, Gonzo. The latest runs from several different models are beginning to show signs of being in reasonable agreement of a major cold spell in less than two weeks time. It's by no means nailed but I feel that we are beginning to see a trend develop. With the second wave of the SSW occurring now, this should give further confidence in the models regarding cold and/or snow from an easterly source.

    I feel that we will be seeing some major upgrades in the next week, as well as a few horrible runs to keep us glued to the F5 key on our keyboards!

    OK, that's my jinxing done :D


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Last week of January/1st week of February is certainly looking promising, however it is very long range so can't be relied upon right now.

    If some of the charts are to be believed, it does send Ireland and the UK into the freezer with temperatures generally between to 3 or 4C below average, and dryer than average conditions across western Ireland and western UK which would indicate possible snow showers keeping eastern Ireland and eastern UK 'wetter'.

    Right now I would take these charts with a pinch of salt before more agreement is reached and time becomes more reliable.

    The GFS on the other hand is a completely Atlantic driven regime with no signs of any cold near us in the last third of January, those charts are also at this stage completely unreliable and not to be taken seriously at all for now.

    Just more patience is required for now and hopefully things will start to unfold in our favour over the next week to 10 days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    The snow of February 2018 with cold of December 2010.

    One can dream.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Last week of January/1st week of February is certainly looking promising, however it is very long range so can't be relied upon right now.

    If some of the charts are to be believed, it does send Ireland and the UK into the freezer with temperatures generally between to 3 or 4C below average, and dryer than average conditions across western Ireland and western UK which would indicate possible snow showers keeping eastern Ireland and eastern UK 'wetter'.

    Right now I would take these charts with a pinch of salt before more agreement is reached and time becomes more reliable.

    The GFS on the other hand is a completely Atlantic driven regime with no signs of any cold near us in the last third of January, those charts are also at this stage completely unreliable and not to be taken seriously at all for now.

    Just more patience is required for now and hopefully things will start to unfold in our favour over the next week to 10 days.

    Are the long range models showing possible snow for just the east coast?? What's it looking like for Ireland as a whole - just dry and fairly cold?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    leahyl wrote: »
    Are the long range models showing possible snow for just the east coast?? What's it looking like for Ireland as a whole - just dry and fairly cold?

    just computer guesswork, first we got to wait and see does this cold actually happen for us, once we're much nearer to the time frame and an event is locked in then the wind direction would be key to where get's snow and where doesn't. The IOM and Wales shadows will also play a huge role in who see's lsnow and who doesn't.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    leahyl wrote: »
    Are the long range models showing possible snow for just the east coast?? What's it looking like for Ireland as a whole - just dry and fairly cold?

    The computer models are able to tell where high and low pressure anomalies are likely to place themselves
    They're indicating Atlantic blocking to be prevalent but not all the time,it looks to me like a Nov Dec 2010 scenario at times is one of the stronger possibilities, and whilst that was mainly north and northeasterlies it also had some Northewesterly's which probably gave you some snow then,heck some of the northeasterlies were potent enough to drive it down there even though the main events were and would be up east?


  • Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    With NAO staying positive for the next 10 days or so expect westerly and northwesterly winds. Going by CFS 700mb.Last few days of January into February looks potentially cold with expected blocking over Greenland.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Those 6 weeks could make a big difference if the SSW event pans our in our favour. Let's say if central and eastern Europe continue to hold their cold and we get an event similar to last years Beast From the East in say 3 to 4 weeks time, It would most likely be a hell of a lot colder than what we experienced end of February/beginning of March last year. Temperatures would most likely be sub zero by day in most places.

    While 'The Beast From The East/Storm Emma' were great events, it happened just that little bit too late in the season for it to stick around for a decent length of time and as soon as the snow stopped falling, the dripping started to rapidly impact the snow depths, we lost most of our general lying snow within 3 days, with only partial drifts left in sheltered ditch's after that.

    Fingers crossed we get something decent over the next 3 to 4 weeks, the depth of cold would probably be more similar to December 2010.

    If it's Atlantic blocking though,it wouldn't matter how cold or how much snow is over the continent
    You'd be mainlining true Siberian artic cold from the northeast not the east,an Atlantic block like the anomalies are showing does not bring easterlies, it brings better ala 2010,those came in Dec mostly,a period of winter not too dissimilar to Feb march in terms of stages of winter (start as opposed to end rather than mid winter),whereas the effects of this SSW look like having windows in the middle of the depth of winter,No doubt you remember the depth of cold the 2010 northeasterly's brought, so can you imagine what similar could do mid winter,shiver me timbers?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    There's blue sky in cork ! I mean one half is blue one is cloudy but the sun is shining into the buildings! Oh it's been so long. It's actually beahtiful haha.

    Cold aswell though


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Beautiful day here near Arklow today
    Suns just heading down now

    2ff91978306ff8e28f7ca8b442cb1a24.jpg


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    first proper dry and sunny day that I can remember since October, a total change from the damp and cloudy conditions. Could be a slight frost tonight and quite cold again tomorrow. Already 6C here which seems cold compared to what we've been used to.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 248 ✭✭kod87


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    Beautiful day here near Arklow today
    Suns just heading down now

    2ff91978306ff8e28f7ca8b442cb1a24.jpg

    UFO spotted :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,551 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    If it's Atlantic blocking though,it wouldn't matter how cold or how much snow is over the continent
    You'd be mainlining true Siberian artic cold from the northeast not the east,an Atlantic block like the anomalies are showing does not bring easterlies, it brings better ala 2010,those came in Dec mostly,a period of winter not too dissimilar to Feb march in terms of stages of winter (start as opposed to end rather than mid winter),whereas the effects of this SSW look like having windows in the middle of the depth of winter,No doubt you remember the depth of cold the 2010 northeasterly's brought, so can you imagine what similar could do mid winter,shiver me timbers?

    Some tempertaure records might be challenged if the scenario you outlined unfolded. It could be a case of the 'perfect storm', so to speak, from the perspective of a cold lover, were it to happen like that.


    th?id=OIP.sbkbv_eULSO9nVkyvILC8wHaJ3&pid=15.1&P=0&w=300&h=300


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Beast from the East and Emma would have results in some shockingly low temperatures (by night) I reckon if we didn't breakdown the ridge (or have it retrogressing to North America), the winds became light and high pressure built over us.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    So with the SSW been as strong as last winter.

    This one has happened much earlier.

    With more of winter to go.

    I think we are in a great position for a good snow event.

    Last week January first week of February.


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