Charts ( up to T120 ) Summer to Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

ronnie3585 · 15-08-2018 11:16pm

The remains of subtropical storm Ernesto may be making its way toward us this weekend.

Meteorite58 · 16-08-2018 8:25pm

Temps over the next 3 days. Sat being the warmest getting up to the mid 20's, Sunday low 20's . Humid too.

sdanseo · 16-08-2018 9:51pm

tl;dr Ernesto's remnants are going to hit us directly, with very little uncertainty, but probably very little puff left.

One to watch still. A minor change is all that would be needed to bring sustained 45kt winds - a red warning - onto land.

307
WTNT45 KNHC 162034
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows that convective
banding has increased closer to the center of Ernesto today. The
system has also lost much of its outer cloud bands and is no longer
co-located with an upper-level low. On this basis, Ernesto is now
being classified as a tropical storm. The initial intensity remains
40 kt, which is based on recent satellite estimates and the earlier
ASCAT data. Although the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler
waters and become post-tropical very soon, the global models deepen
the system somewhat due to baroclinic processes. In addition, the
expected increase in the cyclone's forward speed is likely to result
in an increase in the wind speed. The new NHC intensity forecast
calls for slight strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, with
little overall change in intensity thereafter. The system is still
predicted to merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and
the United Kingdom late Saturday or Saturday night.

Ernesto continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving
045/16 kt. The cyclone should accelerate further while moving
northeastward to east-northeastward within the mid-latitude
westerlies over the next day or two. The dynamical model guidance
remains tightly clustered and little change was made to the
previous NHC track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 43.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 44.9N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 17/1800Z 47.7N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 18/0600Z 50.2N 23.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1800Z 52.0N 15.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

Meteorite58 · 16-08-2018 11:10pm

The GFS has brought the winds up a notch Sat into Sun along the SW coast. Strongest winds are lasting briefly but could get a yellow warning if they rise a bit further.

sdanseo · 17-08-2018 7:19pm

Storm downgraded, never reached 45kt intensity and although it may well be organised enough to still be a named storm over Ireland.

That said, 35kt progged for now, which is only a storm by 1kt and actually 0.1kt short of an Orange warning, so likely yellow if anything.

Meteorite58 · 19-08-2018 10:35am

Nice enough warm day in store,Cloudy in places, mist and drizzle at times along W coasts. Warmest in the E /SE and along the S. Humid.

Meteorite58 · 19-08-2018 7:12pm

Very mild and humid again overnight away from Northern coasts.

Meteorite58 · 19-08-2018 7:36pm

Quite mild Mon and Tues, starting to cool on Weds as we become under the influence of a new air mass from the NW .

Meteorite58 · 20-08-2018 6:56pm

Frontal rain travelling down the country overnight Tues into Weds. Amounts highest on Atlantic coastal counties , less further to the E, S and SE.

Meteorite58 · 20-08-2018 8:41pm

ECM 12Z has upped the total rainfall into Weds. Showing more rain reaching the E on this run.

Meteorite58 · 20-08-2018 8:52pm

Warm and humid tomorrow. Least cloud cover in the SE, E. Looks like clearing towards late afternoon there. Much cloudier again along Atlantic Counties. Bring on the cold air mass to blow away this low humid cloud!

Meteorite58 · 20-08-2018 11:34pm

Frontal system off the W coast of Ireland which will eventually get nudged forward over us Tues night into Weds. Getting windy with the passage of the cold front.

Meteorite58 · 21-08-2018 8:00am

ECM eased off on bringing rain Eastwards overnight into Weds.

Meteorite58 · 21-08-2018 8:07am

Warmest in the E and S today, up to 23C or 25C under clear skies perhaps.

Meteorite58 · 22-08-2018 11:33pm

Cool air mass flooding down over Ireland and the UK in earnest from this evening. Will be a shock to the system over in the UK after all the hot weather.

Getting very cool under clear skies overnight.

Meteorite58 · 22-08-2018 11:53pm

Quite windy and getting blustery in the showers tomorrow.

Meteorite58 · 23-08-2018 7:34pm

Fresh and showery tomorrow with longer spells of rain in the afternoon. Thunder and hail a possibility. Cooler tomorrow.

Meteorite58 · 23-08-2018 8:30pm

After a largely dry day Sat , frontal rain set to cross the country late Sat night / early Sun morning giving a good drenching going by present charts.

Meteorite58 · 24-08-2018 9:21pm

ECM 12Z still showing Sunday quite wet across the country from quick moving fronts. Atlantic coasts might be plagued by a dissipating occluded front throughout the day. Windy too across the country but especially on coasts. After easing during the day Atlantic coasts get windy again towards evening.

Meteorite58 · 01-09-2018 11:41pm

A low cloudy damp day developing tomorrow with rain on and off, drizzle and mist as weak fronts pass over the country. Feeling mild if not warm in the Eastern half of the country where rain will not reach until late afternoon / early evening . Humid.

Rainfall amounts small.

Meteorite58 · 04-09-2018 9:08pm

Thurs looking very cool, Air Mass sourced from the N with cold uppers .

Meteorite58 · 07-09-2018 11:18pm

Widespread rainfall over the Southern half of the Country overnight. The main band of rain looks to clear the E coast early afternoon Sat. Highground catching most of the rain. A following of showers, some heavy and possibly thundery in the Midlands /Leinster late afternoon /early evening.

Meteorite58 · 07-09-2018 11:35pm

No shortage of rainfall up to +120hrs ( Weds eve. ) as the LP systems move in off the Atlantic . Breezy and windy on coasts at times.

Meteorite58 · 09-09-2018 8:32pm

Breezy day across the country tomorrow afternoon/ evening. Rain in Connaught, parts of Munster and Northern counties.

Max Temps

Meteorite58 · 13-09-2018 11:54pm

An area of deepening LP moving up off the W, NW coast on Sat evening giving wet and windy conditions. Blustery. This has picked up a notch on latest runs.

The beginning of a week of unsettled weather.

Meteorite58 · 14-09-2018 9:16pm

Windy wet night in store Sat night. First wind warning coming. Probably a plethora of them over the coming week.

Meteorite58 · 16-09-2018 12:15am

Looks like a very mobile atlantic for the coming week with windy and wet spells coming from complex weather setups which will keep forecastors busy no doubt. Tues night into Weds morning potentially looks windy along Atlantic coastal counties and possibly very windy in the W, NW , mainly agreement across the models on this ( ironic that this ends up looking windier than Ex Helene ), there after the GFS is showing very windy and stormy conditions Thurs into Fri, the ECM not showing very windy Thurs at this stage. In this present weather pattern 120 hrs is a long time and would be expecting lots of changes and tweaks in the models over the coming days.

gugsy · 16-09-2018 12:18am

Ali for Thur/Fri???

Meteorite58 · 16-09-2018 12:23am

gugsy wrote: »

Ali for Thur/Fri???

Don't know?

GFS showing a powerful storm and deepening a it gets close enough for very strong winds but ECM showing the same system a couple of days later and more filled by that stage . They could both change . What you reckon?

Meteorite58 · 16-09-2018 12:25am

Charts ( up to T120 ) Summer to Winter 2018 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Charts ( up to T120 ) Summer to Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST