Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Monday, 21 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg below normal, with the coldest days mid-week.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, most of it will come around Wednesday and Thursday.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal even though today will be well above that.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny with increasing cloud from the north invading some parts of Connacht and Ulster. Also some persistent coastal low cloud and inland fog may not dissipate entirely until afternoon in some cases. For most places highs will be quite warm, 19 to 22 C. A few coastal locations could be several degrees cooler.

TONIGHT will see the cloud advancing south across all regions, followed by outbreaks of rain. About 3-5 mm can be expected by morning. Lows near 10 C.

TUESDAY will become rather windy and rain will alternate with brighter spells, with westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 15 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY will become mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, showery at first, then heavier towards evening. Lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT into THURSDAY some heavy rain is likely with 20-30 mm falls, then rain tapering to drizzle or scattered showers later on Thursday as rather chilly northwest winds set in. Lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy with showers more isolated, slightly milder after a cold start, lows near 5 C and highs near 16 C.

The outlook for the weekend is for somewhat warmer weather to return, but with some rain at times as fronts will not be too far away at any stage. This unsettled and near normal pattern will continue into the final few days of the month.

Hurricane Teddy is passing Bermuda to the east, and will intensify one more time, before undergoing extratropical transition. By the time the storm hits eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, around mid-week, it will have lost its tropical nature but will still have some hurricane force wind gusts. The remnants will travel up towards southern Greenland and spin around near Iceland for several days. A frontal system passing to the south of Teddy's dying phases will gain some of its energy and arrive in Ireland near the end of the month. Only a moderately strong frontal system is expected at this point. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Beta continues a rather slow and sluggish drift towards the Texas coast and will come onto land by Tuesday morning.

My local weather on Sunday saw much of the recent smoke clearing away to reveal partly cloudy skies with localized showers, and highs near 19 C.

Wednesday, 23 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 September 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal except 25-50 per cent above normal in the southwest.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a band of showers expected to move across Munster into south Leinster, just a few outbreaks of light rain by afternoon further north. Rather cool with highs 14 to 17 C. About 2 to 5 mm rainfalls.

TONIGHT will become wet and windy, with some bursts of heavier rain especially in Munster where 15-25 mm is likely. Winds will increase to westerly 50 to 80 km/hr across the south, veering to northwest 50-80 km/hr on Atlantic coasts by morning. These stronger winds will not appear inland or in the east and north until closer to mid-day on Thursday. Overnight lows 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will then become quite windy in all other regions, west to northwest 50 to 70 km/hr, with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle. A further 5-10 mm of rain will be widespread, with mostly cloudy skies and a slight risk of thunder in the south. Highs 13 to 15 C.

FRIDAY will see only slight improvements with gusty west to northwest winds at times, passing showers, and temperatures in the range of lows near 8 to highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY will bring some rain at times, but also some brighter intervals, lows near 4 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY could start out dry but cloud and some rain will follow, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional light rain and highs near 15 C.

The pattern looks unsettled into the first part of October but there are signals for a more settled interval around the second week of October as blocking high pressure to the east or northeast may resume for a time then.

Post-tropical cyclone Teddy is heading for a landfall in eastern Nova Scotia, despite the very strong winds and large waves reported near it on Tuesday, impacts are expected to be moderate once it does reach land. The remnants will move on through Newfoundland into the vicinity of southern Greenland and Iceland; the impacts for Ireland will be indirect, as these remnants will energize the pattern over the Atlantic and contribute to the later unsettled spells of weather.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy with a high near 21 C, smoke seems to be slowly building up again as winds become more southerly, but it's not as bad as the earlier spell.

Thursday, 24 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, with some parts of the southwest about 25% above normal.
-- Sunshine will average only half of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy across the south, winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr. Some squally showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the inland south, with amounts variable 5 to 25 mm. Another band of showers will be circulating back from the east across north-central counties, as low pressure gradually works its way through the midlands to Leinster. Until the low reaches the eastern counties, stronger winds will be confined to the south and west coasts, but eventually all other regions will have a spell of windy weather by this afternoon, with frequent showers or intervals of rain. It will also be rather cold with highs only 13 to 16 C, and temperatures falling once northwest winds set in.

TONIGHT will continue rather windy and wet with winds northwest to north 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 7 C. Expect a further 10 or 15 mm of rain by morning.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with the winds slowly moderating later in the day, passing showers and winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs will be 13 to 16 C.

SATURDAY some light rain will continue for a part of the morning in the south, but partial clearing will develop and the afternoon should be dry in most places, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with a chilly start to the day but moderating temperatures by afternoon, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are looking unsettled with some intervals of rain both days and highs near 17 C.

Later next week, a low will spread rain across all regions from north to south and it will be quite cool, highs 13 to 15 degrees. There are still faint signs of an improving trend into the second week of October.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with rain most of the afternoon and evening, highs only around 15 C, and feeling decidedly autumnal; not much change of colours in our deciduous trees around here yet though. For the first time in quite a while, there are no active tropical storms, as both Teddy and Beta have been moved into post-tropical categories, and Paulette's brief resurgence has also ended. The next named storm (if there is one) will be Gamma. There's no telling how far into the Greek alphabet we could go, since many seasons are only two-thirds done by this point.

Saturday, 26 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 26 Sept to 2 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in most areas but east Ulster may pick up heavy rains (to twice normal values) around Thursday.
-- Sunshine will be generous this weekend then largely absent, the blend should be around 75% of normal overall.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny but cool in most places, with a little more cloud in parts of the north where isolated showers may drift in, but almost everywhere will remain dry. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be clear with fog patches developing, and scattered frost again, as we have at the present time with some readings as low as -2, and this is likely to repeat in the same places. Lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY will bring some morning sunshine then increasing cloud from the south and west during the afternoon, a bit warmer with highs 14 to 17 C.

MONDAY will see a weak frontal system moving through during the late overnight and morning (for Leinster), then partial clearing will follow, with moderate southwest winds developing, lows 6 to 9 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with occasional light rain by afternoon, lows near 3 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring some rain and increasingly strong winds by later in the day, with 5-15 mm rainfalls expected, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking very unsettled with strong winds from a deep low pressure system that at this rather early stage seems to be heading for a grand tour of Ireland and then Britain with winds initially strong from the southeast to east and later turning to westerly as the low reaches higher latitudes. East Ulster (or more so eastern Northern Ireland) will see some heavy rainfalls being closer to this low's core at times on Thursday and early Friday, further away the precipitation may be more showery but will mount up to 10-20 mm amounts at least. Temperatures will be in the 12 to 14 C range most of the time.

Once that low dies out over the following weekend, with residual cloud and showers continuing, more active disturbances are expected to follow in a rather chilly west to northwest flow from the North Atlantic. Temperatures may fall back to around 10 C with that.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with light rain and chilly temperatures that were stuck in the range of 7 to 9 degrees at our elevation, and 10 to 12 C down in the valleys. We are supposed to get one more spell of fine autumn weather next week for a few days but it will be Tuesday before that sets in.

Monday, 28 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 28 Sept to 4 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 per cent above normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will begin with a few showers, generally light with 1-2 mm additional rain expected, then gradual clearing will develop from west to east, with sunny intervals by afternoon. Highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will become partly to mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers, lows near 7 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few isolated showers, highs 14 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out unsettled with some heavy rain showers moving through in the early morning hours, then variable cloud and somewhat fresher, cooler by afternoon, temperatures steady near 12 C.

THURSDAY will become quite cool and breezy with outbreaks of light to moderate rain, 5 to 10 mm generally, some heavier amounts in the south. Lows near 5 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are looking quite wet and windy as low pressure comes back from an earlier pass to the south after looping around over Britain, and this time moves through eastern and southeastern counties of Ireland, with moderate to strong northeast winds developing for most regions, bands of rain and the chance of sleet or snow on higher peaks. Temperatures will be stuck in the range of 7 to 11 C throughout.

By SUNDAY, some slight improvements but staying quite chilly with some sunny breaks and passing showers, highs only 7 to 10 C.

Most of the following week looks unsettled although the weather won't be wet or windy all the time, just for intervals when fronts are passing, and sometimes quite windy with bursts of heavy rain. So, a fairly typical autumn pattern with winds generally from the northwest except briefly southwest ahead of approaching fronts. Highs will be around 12 C on average, a little below early October normals.

My local weather started to improve with mostly sunny skies after morning mist, and the high reached about 13 C. Warmer weather is on the way here for most of the week. Skies were finally clear in the evening for a change, and I noticed that Mars is considerably brighter now than last time I was able to see it, also Jupiter and Saturn have begun their final approach to the December (apparent) conjunction (the real conjunction from a solar perspective is next week, but our angle to that will close down progressively after mid-October and it will appear from here that the conjunction is in mid-December). The moon was waxing towards full and will be close to Mars within a couple of days if you also get a break in the overcast one evening.

Wednesday, 30 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 30 Sept to 7 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, heaviest in the east.
-- Sunshine will average only about half of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... Rain will end soon in eastern counties, followed by variable cloud and isolated showers, rather cool, highs near 13 C. Winds moderate westerly 40 to 60 km/hr will ease later in the day. Any brighter spells will probably be most frequent around late morning as cloud increases from the west by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, a few light showers, lows 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and isolated thunderstorms, some prolonged and heavy downpours possible as there will be only slow movement of cells that develop, especially in some central counties, 10 to 25 mm rainfalls are expected. Winds rather variable will become northeast 20-40 km/hr across most of the northern and later central counties. Cool with highs 11 to 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy and cool with chance of some rain at times in the southeast, generally dry and bright elsewhere with a mixture of sun and cloud, morning lows near 6 C and afternoon highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, some heavy rain may begin by evening moving from east to west, reaching Leinster and east Ulster well before midnight, further west it may not set in until Sunday morning. Lows near 4 C and highs around 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Continued heavy rain for a time in eastern and some central counties, potential for 20-40 mm in parts of Leinster, not as much further west where cloud will be more variable. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

The disturbance from the east will gradually weaken by Monday and there could be a brief dry interval before more rain arrives from the Atlantic in a resumed westerly flow. Then it seems likely to turn quite cool and unsettled with flow becoming increasingly northerly heading deeper into October.

My local weather has been sunny and pleasantly warm on Tuesday with highs reaching 17 C. Nights remain chilly with a slight frost likely, then back to warm sunshine each day through this coming weekend as we enjoy one last spell of late summer weather. I would share it if I could (but then we had the two weeks of smoke so it evens out).

Friday, 2 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 October 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal, possibly a bit below in parts of west Munster, trending to 25-50 per cent above normal in Leinster and Ulster.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals likely in north central counties, the midlands and west Munster. A few more intervals of light rain may develop near the southeast coast and there will be scattered showers moving in from the Atlantic into west Ulster and north Connacht. Winds will increase steadily to northeast 50-70 km/hr with higher gusts possible near the east coast. Rather cold with highs only 11 to 14 C, somewhat moderating towards the southwest coast.

TONIGHT will become less windy and skies will be clear in some areas, partly cloudy elsewhere, with isolated showers dying out. Lows -2 to +3 C.

SATURDAY will be a case of a dry and in some places sunny regime being slowly eroded from both sides as cloud from the distant storm "Alex" begins to back up to the west over Britain and towards eastern Ireland, while Atlantic disturbances try to break in from the west. As a result, settled weather is most likely to persist to the evening hours away from both east and west coasts, and most likely to develop towards unsettled conditions along those coasts, but there is still some uncertainty on the timing, more reliable is the idea that by Saturday night the dry conditions would break down entirely as the eastern frontal band becomes dominant and pushes through into Ireland bringing some heavy rainfalls with it overnight into Sunday morning. Temperatures will peak around 12-15 C on Saturday and will not drop very much overnight except perhaps in west Ulster and west Munster where cloud will not be as widespread.

SUNDAY the rain will continue to mid-day or early afternoon before tapering to showers in Leinster and Ulster, and some will spill over into parts of Munster and Connacht although further west rainfalls will be much lighter. By the time this event is done, 20-40 mm of rain is likely in parts of Leinster and there could be some localized flooding as a result. The rain will continue and possibly get heavier in east Ulster towards the end of the day, but other areas will then be into a west to northwest flow off the Atlantic with a few showers, and gusts to 60 km/hr. Temperatures throughout will be around 12 to 14 C.

MONDAY looks rather unsettled too, the remnants of an Atlantic frontal system trying to plow into the mess left behind by Alex will be sheared apart but there will be enough of it left to bring scattered heavy showers and moderate wind gusts at times, with temperatures still rather steady around 10 to 12 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will remain somewhat unsettled in a generally northwesterly wind flow, as the old remnants of the weekend storms slowly edge away from Scotland into the farther northern latitudes of the Atlantic towards Iceland, but around FRIDAY it is possible that the old storm centre will redevelop northwest of Ireland and move back in for a last go-round of wind and rain, to be followed by a cool but more settled interval as higher pressure finally gets a chance to build up around the weekend of 10th-11th. That would likely be a rather cool and frosty interval with highs around 10 to 12 C and lows several degrees below freezing in some areas.

That more or less introduces the subject of the October long-range forecast, would expect that all of those developments would likely be followed by further stormy episodes and intervening cool anticyclonic periods, overall it seems likely to be a cooler than normal month with heavier than average rainfall.

My local weather on Thursday became overcast from a warm front and some trapped smoke layers higher in the atmosphere, still rather warm although the cloud kept the temperatures down a few degrees at 16 C, looking like more sun will get through in coming days and boost us back towards 20 or so. Meanwhile, there are fairly strong indications that Tropical Storm Gamma may form at any time in the western Caribbean and if it stays away from land it could move through into the Gulf of Mexico by next week. Weaker signs exist for a following wave to become "Delta" at some point early next week, in the central Caribbean perhaps.

Sunday, 4 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average about one degree below normal for the period. Highs will average about 13 C and lows around 5 C.

-- Rainfall will average near normal to 50 per cent above normal, which would be in the range of about 30 to 60 mm.

-- Sunshine will average only half of normal, or about two hours a day on average.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be wet and windy, with strong northwest winds in most regions, north to northeast over parts of Ulster, 50 to 80 km/hr with some gusts to near 100 km/hr in exposed areas. Rainfalls of about 10-25 mm are expected, and now it appears more likely to be distributed about in that range throughout as the storm spins around one final time over Britain and swings this arc of rainfall well to the west of its overnight position. So eventually most regions will see an interval of heavier rain, as the bands move to the southwest. Some moderation of these very poor conditions will begin to develop by late afternoon, but it will remain rather cold with highs in the 11 to 14 C range.

TONIGHT will bring some further rain and moderate westerly winds, 30 to 50 km/hr. Lows will be 5 to 8 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and cool, with showers or longer intervals of rain, moderate westerly winds, with highs 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY will be windy and quite cold with rain at times, winds west to northwest 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring further outbreaks of rain. A storm will develop in the Atlantic and move either across the south (most guidance) or into the north-central regions (U.S. "GFS" model) -- on these different tracks, somewhat different results are possible in terms of rainfall and wind direction, but all solutions would include some wet and windy weather by Wednesday night into Thursday, temperatures both days around 10 to 12 C. We will see if there's some forecast clarity among the various weather models by Monday's forecast time. The track further south would force the winds into the east to northeast and place the heaviest rain over the southern counties. If the track is further north, strong southwest veering to northwest winds would be the result and the rain would be heaviest in central counties but generally heavier to the north.

Following either outcome, the most likely final result by next weekend would be cold and breezy weather with a more settled theme as higher pressure begins to build up near Ireland. Highs would continue to be only in the lower teens, but nights would get colder with more frequent clear spells, and there could be some frost. This regime is expected to become rather prolonged and the temperature trend could begin to recover to slightly above normal values eventually as the wind direction became more east to southeast in the following week.

My local weather was sunny, hazy and very warm most of the day, as we travelled down to the coast where we will be for a couple of days. It started to become overcast and foggy especially near the ocean here this evening, while staying clear further inland. The highest temperature we encountered was around 23 C, and there is a lot of smoke haze drifting in from distant fires to the south (mostly in Oregon and California).

Tropical Storm Gamma has had only a short entanglement with land and has moved out over the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining about 50-60 mph wind strength with heavy rainfalls in the Yucatan. It is still expected to move a bit south of due west now and be close to Veracruz, Mexico in about five days although not yet inland by then. Some uncertainty on the intensity of Gamma which is being forecast to remain in its current intensity level but could reach hurricane status since it will be over very warm water for quite some time.

Tuesday, 6 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 October, 2020

-- Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be near average although fairly frequent therefore it may seem to be heavier.
-- Sunshine will do well to reach half of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will bring on intervals of light to moderate rain, with some increase in the coverage and amounts towards afternoon. Winds moderate west to northwest 30 to 50 km/hr with higher gusts developing near coasts. Highs will be about 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will see some partial clearing and fewer showers, lows may fall to about 4 C where skies clear somewhat.

WEDNESDAY will have a mixture of cloud and brighter intervals with passing showers, but a dry interval is likely by afternoon. Highs 10 to 13 C.

THURSDAY some rain is likely, and it could turn rather heavy in the inland south to south or even central Leinster, depending on the track taken by low pressure across the southeast into the Irish Sea. Winds will become moderate northeast in central and northern counties and could briefly turn strong south to southwest near the south coast. There are still uncertainties in the track and intensity of this system so forecasts may be fluid for a while yet. Temperatures are likely to be steady in the 8 to 11 C range.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy for part of the day but another disturbance will approach from the northwest this time, with bands of showers likely, staying quite cool with highs only around 10 or 11 C. Moderate winds from the west to northwest at times.

SATURDAY will see some slight improvements with longer dry intervals and more isolated showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

SUNDAY will have a few sunny intervals and may be a generally dry day for a change, risk of some slight frosts and highs 10 to 13 C -- here again some uncertainty as models have been struggling with the strength of high pressure building in around this weekend, and whether or not it can hold off further disturbances starting around Sunday night.

NEXT WEEK looks somewhat more settled although some guidance wants to bring in further showery frontal systems from time to time. There are also hints of a more northerly influence that may drop temperatures a few more degrees.

My local weather as we returned home from a brief trip to the coast, was exceptional, sunny and very warm for this late in the season, as high as 27 degrees in valleys. We have a bit more of this to enjoy before a gradual return to normal autumn weather by next weekend here. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Gamma has been put out of commission by its meandering path that brought it back over the Yucatan. It could redevelop in the southern Gulf later this week but Delta rapidly became a hurricane near the Cayman Islands and looks like it will take a nip at the Yucatan also, then move towards the U.S. gulf coast states by the weekend. This one could become a major hurricane.

Thursday, 8 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 October 2020

-- Temperatures will be slightly below normal for the week, 0.5 to 1.0 deg below on average.
-- Rainfall will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal, with the higher amounts expected to be further north.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy and cool with a few passing showers, moderate west to northwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr, and highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will have a few clear intervals, with partly cloudy skies most of the time, although more cloud likely in west and north with a few showers there. Lows 2 to 6 C (lowest inland southeast, midlands to north central).

FRIDAY will be breezy and cool with a few showers, winds northwest to north 30 to 50 km/hr, highs 10 to 13 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and cool, with showers becoming more isolated especially by afternoon, with lows 1 to 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

SUNDAY will see increasing cloud with risk of morning frosts, lows -2 to +3 C, and afternoon highs 11 to 15 C.

MONDAY will bring a few showers from a weak disturbance, winds shifting from southwest to northwest 30 to 50 km/hr with higher gusts near western coasts, and highs around 12 C.

TUESDAY may be a fairly dry day with near average temperatures, then a cool and unsettled interval is likely, with frequent if rather light rainfalls, and temperatures generally not much higher than 10 C. Eventually this cool air will begin to develop a southeast wind flow as the storm track will be pushed further south and lows may stall near western France; this could be a rather dry interval if the cloud and rain stay off the south coast, but it may also be quite chilly. Some uncertainty is attached because of the final evolution of remnants of Hurricane Delta.

My local weather continues in late summer mode with sunshine and highs near 25 C on Wednesday here. Meanwhile Hurricane Delta has resumed its ocean travels and is approaching the central Gulf of Mexico aiming for a landfall in south central Louisiana, a bit to the east of where Laura hit earlier in the year. The landfall still appears to be timed for early Saturday local time. Although the models pretty much lose any defined structure of Delta by about Monday (near the lower Great Lakes) if it were to retain more energy and a circulation, it could go on to disrupt the longer range model scenario so that's worth watching.

I hope to have some form of a winter outlook in about a week to ten days.

Saturday, 10 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1.0 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will total about 25 to 50 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will be near normal to 25 per cent above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, some locally heavy with thunder or hail briefly, but amounts in general only 2-4 mm. Highs 11-14 C.

TONIGHT will have some clear intervals with showers dying out, fog patches likely and frost possible inland valleys, lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY will start out sunny then clouds will increase, leading to rain by evening. Highs 12 to 15 C.

MONDAY will have early morning rain, then partly cloudy skies with showers redeveloping in moderate northwest winds of 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 8 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, cool, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY are now looking improved with some sunshine each day, near normal temperatures, and slight frosts, in light winds generally. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

The OUTLOOK for next weekend and beyond calls for a gradual return to unsettled and at times windy weather with near normal temperatures.

My local weather on Friday was mostly cloudy but still rather mild at 17 C. Rain is moving in overnight but hasn't quite reached us yet. Meanwhile, Hurricane Delta has moved inland over southwest Louisiana, with storm surge likely to be the main issue.

Monday, 12 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average about 50 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will amount to near normal values or perhaps slightly above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will have some sunny breaks this morning, then another round of showers is likely from the northwest to the southeast, just 2 to 4 mm of rain expected with this batch, and highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few showers and cold, lows 2 to 6 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy and quite cool with occasional showers, highs 9 to 12 C. There may be some rather heavy and possibly thundery showers near the east coast at times as a disturbance drifts south over the Irish Sea. Further west, less rainfall but likely to be breezy (northerly to northeasterly 40 to 60 km/hr).

WEDNESDAY will bring longer sunny intervals, after morning frosts, any fog patches should clear soon after sunrise. Winds may continue moderate northeast for part of the day then fall off to light and variable. Lows -2 to +3 C, highs 10 to 13 C.

THURSDAY will become overcast with occasional rain at least in parts of the west and southwest, winds at times moderate northerly to northeasterly, temperatures steady in the 8 to 12 C range.

FRIDAY will see the rain confined to west Munster and possibly parts of Connacht, as it slowly backs off to the south and west as stronger northeast winds develop, and low pressure that will be near the west coast early Friday begins to track south away from western coastal counties. Temperatures will be steady near 10 C. This low will eventually track southwest and west past the Azores before trying to return to Europe the following week. This rather unusual scenario complicates the forecast for the weekend, as weaker frontal disturbances will be dragged along for the ride and could stall out near Ireland.

As a result, the best guess for the weekend at this point is somewhat unsettled although not very large amounts of rain expected, and temperatures still a bit below average but possibly edging back towards normal before a new surge of colder air arrives around Monday or Tuesday of the following week. When that happens it will likely turn very cool for several days and temperatures may be 3 to 5 degrees below average for mid to late October in a rather strong north to northeast wind flow, some onshore showery precipitation for the east, and some of that could be sleet or snow on hills especially near summit elevations.

My local weather is rather like that already. Most of Sunday here was dry, cool and partly cloudy, but rain arrived late afternoon and the freezing level is not far above us, the high even with some help from sunshine was only about 8 degrees and now it's close to 3 C, with forecasts of accumulating snow in nearby mountain regions a bit higher in elevation than where I'm situated (or above 1300 metres).

Wednesday, 14 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for week of 14 to 20 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will be close to average for mid-October.
-- Rainfall projections are very uncertain around days five to seven of this week but it should be mostly dry until then.
-- Sunshine is likely to average about 100 to 125 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... A mixture of cloud and sun with some lingering showers this morning in parts of Leinster and east Ulster, slowly fading out by afternoon. Light to moderate east to northeast winds, highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog and some ground frost forming, lows 1 to 5 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals in most regions, trending to cloudy with a few breaks in parts of the southwest. Highs 13 to 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, risk of rain at times in south Kerry and southwest Cork from offshore frontal system, not expected to make any further advances into Ireland though, lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY are most likely to be partly cloudy to overcast at times, but generally dry, with the risk of some outbreaks of light rain near the southwest coasts, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 13 to 15 C, moderate southeast winds developing.

There is considerable uncertainty about what happens early next week; some guidance shows the distant Atlantic low finally wheeling back around to make an impact on southern counties by Sunday night then all other areas by Monday; other guidance has not joined in and maintains the low closer to the Azores and possibly needing to make one more loop then moving in mid-week. As a result, we can't be very certain of the weather pattern for Monday-Tuesday except to say that near normal temperatures are likely, rain seems like a fairly good bet but is not certain, and southeast winds are likely to increase slowly. Later in the week, unsettled conditions are more and more certain.

The on-again, off-again cold spell discussed in several earlier forecasts seems a little more "on again" with indications of the cold air arriving late next week. This needs to be considered a bit speculative too.

My local weather turned wintry, we woke up to a covering of wet snow (3-5 cm) that took most of the day to melt as temperatures slowly warmed back up towards 5 or 6 C. The storm responsible has moved inland and is weakening steadily so it hasn't brought along very much mild Pacific air, nor did the strong winds on the coast make it this far inland, just a foggy and chilly night with readings of 1 or 2 C. The snow cover was considerably larger on local hills but the rain-snow divide was just below our elevation and the nearby valley got no snow at all, just a cold rain.

Not much happening in the tropics with a 20% chance of a weak wave developing into anything significant around the eastern Caribbean region. It may be a week to ten days before we have "Epsilon" on the maps, some charts are showing a hurricane well off the east coast of the U.S. around the 20th to 24th, heading north towards Greenland.

Friday, 16 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, heaviest in southwest and inland south.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values, cloud will be on the increase during the interval.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see some sunny breaks, and a few isolated showers mainly over Leinster and east Ulster. Amounts are expected to be slight, trace to 2 mm. Highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with patchy fog or mist developing, lows 5 to 8 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks possible in the midlands, north and east. Some outbreaks of drizzle or light rain are likely, still not much accumulation however. Moderate southeast winds, highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY will be overcast with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, mostly confined to Munster at first, slowly spreading further north and east. About 2 to 4 mm is expected. Moderate east to southeast winds, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

MONDAY will be windy and wet with the possibility of heavy rainfalls depending on timing and track of low pressure expected to make a run from the southwest towards Munster. Some areas further north and east may not see much rain until later in the day or overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds east to southeast 50 to 80 km/hr and a risk of stronger south to southwest winds in some coastal areas. About 20-40 mm rain possible especially in Munster. Lows near 10 C and highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY will also be mostly cloudy with showers or continued rainfall, depending on timing, and winds could remain strong at least for part of the day. Lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C.

By mid-week there could be a colder turn as low pressure is most likely to have moved through by then, allowing colder air to move down from the north. This would be complicated by another low pressure area trying to form in the colder air mass and moving southeast across parts of Ireland late in the week. Temperatures are most likely to be around 6 to 9 C late in the week, and another 10-30 mm of rain is quite possible although not certain.

Beyond that phase, another stormy period looms for later in the month and there are signs that the tropical regions will activate again providing the nucleus of some powerful Atlantic gales, details keep changing at this distance.

My local weather was partly cloudy to overcast and cool on Thursday with highs near 5 C. Mixed precipitation is moving in for the overnight hours and another slushy accumulation looks possible by morning. We will be getting into somewhat milder air again next week though, winter may be here to stay in the local mountains but not at our elevation yet.

Sunday, 18 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1.0 deg above normal, mostly due to very mild nights, daytime readings will not be unusually high for mid-October.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 100 per cent above normal values, with local maxima of 150 per cent above (or 250 per cent of normal). Much of this rain is expected on Monday and Tuesday with flood risks rising.
-- Sunshine will be only 25 to 50 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will remain fairly dry although cloudy in most places with a few brief brighter intervals. Some pockets of moderate rain will graze the western coast of Connacht towards afternoon and evening, and elsewhere there could be isolated light showers. Moderate southeast breezes and highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will become wet in most of the south and west, and parts of Ulster, with 10-15 mm rainfalls in some of those areas, but it will be more of a drizzle in other areas, foggy at times with lows 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY will see rain becoming rather heavy and moving slowly through the midlands and southeast towards Leinster and east Ulster. Moderate east to southeast winds, highs near 13 C. Rainfalls 10-30 mm possible.

MONDAY NIGHT and TUESDAY a heavier rainfall is expected from a second low moving in on Monday night or early Tuesday, spreading 20-40 mm rainfalls through much of the country, with a risk of strong south to southwest winds on the south coast and spreading up the east coast, most likely between Cork and Wicklow (Dublin may or may not get into this windy regime briefly). The west and north of the country will have more moderate winds from east backing to northerly as the low tracks through the inland southeast. Rainfalls may be somewhat lower in parts of the northwest also. However, for many areas, significant flood risks may develop, monitor the relevant sources of flood information if you have concerns. Temperatures will be steady 12-14 C (near 10 C northwest).

By WEDNESDAY another low may develop closer to southwest England and place Ireland in a moist northeast flow for some of the day, then winds are likely to back to northwesterly and cooler air will arrive, temperatures falling to about 8-10 C, with potential for 10-20 mm further rainfalls.

THURSDAY should be a cooler day with northwest winds and passing showers or outbreaks of drizzle, winds 40 to 70 km/hr and lows near 5 C, highs near 9 C.

FRIDAY into early SATURDAY, a new disturbance from the Atlantic will push in with strong southwest winds and possibly more heavy rainfalls of 10-30 mm, temperatures rising to around 15 C.

The pattern after that storm passes looks very unsettled with most guidance developing a hurricane or strong low in the western Atlantic that will move towards Iceland during the last few days of October. The outcome for Ireland could be simply a mild spell without too much wind or rain, if the jet stream moves a bit to the north as some guidance suggests it will. But I wouldn't be too surprised given the energy shown by the jet all month if the actual outcome might be a strong wind event for coastal areas (some time after the 25th).

My local weather was overcast and cool with a high near 9 C, but we are into a gradual warming trend for the coming few days, so not much snow likely this week.

My winter forecast will be included in tomorrow's forecast package, the word "mild" does get a bit of a workout so be forewarned.