Winter 2017-18: Discussion

Currently 13 Degrees in Cork,
Broken clouds, and getting windy!
Was raining earlier on around 11pm but that passed
Will be going to Rosscarbery area to my summer home tomorrow for new years, so will be interesting to see how Dylan affects that area vs the city! Right across from the ocean, with only sand dunes separating us!
Going to tie down the Christmas decorations at home though in the city a bit more then they are now, just to be on the safe side :pac:

Going to be warming up from next Tuesday in British Columbia and Alberta Canada to 10 c which is crazy temperatures for this time of year. I reckon it will turn colder in Ireland and the UK at the same time.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

There’s a lot in MT’s forecast lately about how cold zonal our jet stream is at the moment
That’s why episodes like last nights ninja snow were able to happen

Now consider said same js diving a little south and slider activity will be in that same as now colder mode ie not coming up from the Southwest bumping against say an easterly or northeasterly but originating from itself a more northerly source in the Atlantic (even if it does curve in from across the south)

In that scenario,battleground snow and significant stuff at that could occur more widely and easily than usual
Meaning all parts of the country in line for considerable snowy goodness (after a period of watching significant streamer activity in the east and north etc)
I can smell it
Nothing like a good RAMP

I keep thinking that with the pattern we have we are going to get in Ireland a proper Snow Storm ie Blizzard.

sryanbruen wrote: »

The recent small SW event is pretty much gone tomorrow:



The GFS has been picking up on a similarly small SW event for the early days of January but this time at the top of the Arctic Circle than over Asia. However, still nothing exciting in terms of the stratosphere.



You can see here for yourself from the temperatures at 10hPa courtesy of the JMA that the stratosphere has cooled down significantly after the recent small warming.



.

Are you suggesting the proposed height rises to the north east are a consequence of this, but due to the cooling that has already taken place since, any height rises will be fleeting?

Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts - -> http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation
December 25, 2017

Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) recently embarked on an experimental process of regular research, review, and analysis of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This analysis is intended to provide researchers and practitioners real-time insights on one of North America’s and Europe’s leading drivers for extreme and persistent temperature patterns.

With the start of fall I will be transitioning to a fall/winter schedule, which is once every week starting sometime in October. Precipitation forecasts will be replaced by snow accumulation forecasts. Also there will be more emphasis on ice and snow boundary conditions (which are both now in their seasonal advance) and their influence on hemispheric weather.
<snip>

• There are currently three main centers of ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) one over Europe, the second over Central Asia and the third is in the eastern North Pacific and Alaska.
• The ridge over Europe is contributing to mild temperatures for Europe. In the short term a trough coming ashore in Western Europe will bring a temporary cool down as the ridge is predicted to push east. However, a transition to a westerly flow of maritime air will promote mostly milder temperatures for Europe.

source

Authors twitter handle - https://twitter.com/judah47

Is there any indication that the current North American extreme cold spell will cross the Atlantic to Ireland.... or will it dissipate?

This week ahead seems extremely windy (and prolonged) off the West coast. No warnings yet?

To emphasise how unusual this Winter is so far, look at the snow and ice cover over Europe from yesterday, the UK is one of the more snowier countries:



Wouldn't mind to see a chart like this again:

sryanbruen wrote: »

Just to be more detailed on how the early 2009 SSW event ruined the February 2009 cold spell:

As nagdefy has stated in the FI charts thread, January was a cold month with multiple shots of cold. It started off with a very anticyclonic but freezing cold period continuing on from the last week of December 2008 - an unusually long period of anticyclonic weather for Winter. Then it was on and off with cold and mild shots through the month but much of it was cold zonal dominated. To add to the unusual Winter of 2008/09 here, it was a positive NAO and positive AO Winter. However, the February cold spell acted normal just like an cold snap should.

Low pressure was centred over Ireland just to the west during the last week or so of January 2009 with winds going into the south sending warm air advection up to the Arctic and in turn developing a block up there. At the same time, temperatures in the stratosphere were very warm. SSW events do not effect us 'til minimum 2 weeks after their occurrence over the North Pole. That 2 week period was up just abouts when the February cold spell ended. This is why I think the SSW ruined the February cold spell, it could all be coincidence though you'll never know with our good ol' friend the atmosphere. I recall seeing two other examples of this occurring where a SSW ruins a cold spell but I can't think of them off the top of my head right now.



Plus happy new year to you all and hopefully 2018 will be THE year that delivers us the greats!

I think you maybe right. Chino, the resident stratosphere expert over on Netweather, has stated the the same thing previously. Thank you for the good wishes. The same to you Sryan. As you say lets hope 2018 goes down in weather folklore!

Happy New Year all! Thanks for your informative updates and predictions re the weather over the last year :-) quite squally conditions south of Athenry currently with hailstones and higher wind gust in those showers. Looks like a windy week approaching with an active jet...

Didn't know where to post these so I'll post them here:

These are my 2018 predictions. They are based on previous years' conditions and see if I feel Mother Nature will balance things out like how we've had three consecutive dry Octobers, more than likely it's going to be a wet one next, ENSO and solar activity. Not to mention my optimism in some of it.

January - Cold and wet. Potentially snowy.
February - Mild overall but with a lot of variation. Rather wet and sunny.
March - Cold and rather dull but dry.
April - Cool, wet and rather sunny.
May - Dull, cool and dry. Similar to May 1991 but not nearly as dry.
June - Cold and wet. Dull too.
July - Hot with the chance of thundery downpours. Not all that sunny.
August - Hot again but very sunny and dry.
September - Mild, sunny and dry at first but becoming wet.
October - Cold, very wet and sunny.
November - Close to average sunshine and temperature. Dry also.
December - Cool, rather wet and dull.

Overall, a cold Spring with a very blocked setup which continues into June bringing quite a poor start to the year and Summer before a complete switch around as the Summer becomes back loaded. Mixed Autumn before a coolish start to Winter 2018/19.

I'd like to note the Summer though, it's pretty much what I went for Summer 2017 - and Summer 2017 turned out as a disaster in terms of my forecast. Also, years that end in "8" have a remarkable tendency to be very poor. In fact, there hasn't been a warmer than average Summer (for the CET using the 1981-2010 average) in years ending in "8" since 1878!

Here's my chart of said Summers going back to 1900:



Only one single warmer than average month and that was June 1968.

I'm hoping 2018 will break this long ass streak of said Summers being very poor.

Ken Ring, the infamous New Zealand "forecaster" :P, said for 2018 to be the next good Summer after 2013. As he predicted 2013 right, I want to see how this "theory" of his goes. Other forecasters have said 2019 to be the year with a very warm Summer though and I have been saying for ages that 2018 will be a very awful year in terms of warm weather so I'm kind of contradicting myself here!

Wind Warning issued by Met Eireann.

West to southwest winds of mean speeds 55 to 65 km/h,gusting 90 to 110 km/h,will develop on Tuesday evening, continuing on Tuesday night and Wednesday.There is potential for even stronger winds developing locally or a time Tuesday evening with damaging gusts.Very high seas along Atlantic coasts,with a risk of coastal flooding.

Yea- this one could be worse than Dylan as system due to pass over land. Will be interesting to see how it develops.