Boom bust economy?

EmmetSpiceland · 03-09-2019 1:39pm

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

The next recession is going to be another biggie. And it’s going to be about sovereign debt and the knock on impact of absolutely decimating the value of pension funds.

Ah now, J, which “barstool” economist did you get that one from? Or was it given to you through a toilet stall wall?

Are you talking about the state pension or “private” pensions getting decimated here?

I’m sure if you’re right, doubtful, we’ll never hear the end of it but if you’re wrong no one will remember so, I guess, it’s worth a “punt”.

BattleCorp · 05-09-2019 10:03am

Mad_maxx wrote: »

It's about choices, the vast majority of people can't afford a million euro house, if you happen to live in one, don't expect the state to cover the costs of it

Besides, the state pension is more than enough to put away five hundred euro per annum for property tax

The person in the million euro house has more than likely worked hard for it and provided it for themselves, the State didn't provide it so I don't see how the person living in that house is expecting the state to cover the costs of it.

Also, you are in cloud cuckoo land if you think it's easy for pensioners to save €500 per year for property tax. Many, and I mean a very significant number of pensioners have fcukall money and are living from week to week and they wouldn't have a hope in hell of forking out €500 on property tax.

El_Duderino 09 · 05-09-2019 10:31am

BattleCorp wrote: »

The person in the million euro house has more than likely worked hard for it and provided it for themselves, the State didn't provide it so I don't see how the person living in that house is expecting the state to cover the costs of it.

Also, you are in cloud cuckoo land if you think it's easy for pensioners to save €500 per year for property tax. Many, and I mean a very significant number of pensioners have fcukall money and are living from week to week and they wouldn't have a hope in hell of forking out €500 on property tax.

If they’re in such dire straits, then they could always sell their million Euro house.

Also, your situation above makes absolutely no distinction between wealth that they worked for, and inherited wealth which is the opposite of wealth that they worked hard for.

I’d have absolutely no problem with 95%inheritance tax above a nominal amount like €50,000.

People bang on as if they like meritocracy, but also support the notion of inheritance which is the opposite to meritocracy.

I did some work on the Grosvenor inheritance a few years back. The duke of Westminster inherited about £8bn when his father died (also inherited). All legally don’t through trusts which are set up to make sure the extremely wealthy don’t have to pay the kind of tax that normal people pay. Otherwise you’d lose the nobility (and I’ve no idea why that would be a problem)

the “bank of mum and dad” is now one of he main lenders for first time buyers and the single biggest lender. Meritocracy my hoop.

BattleCorp · 05-09-2019 10:08pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

If they’re in such dire straits, then they could always sell their million Euro house.

I don't agree. Imagine you are in your mid 70's. The last thing you want to do is to sell your house and move. People in their 70's, 80's etc. usually have a support network of friends, relations and neighbours around them. Are you seriously suggesting that they have to up sticks and move away from all these supports to a strange area just because they are on a state pension and live in a big house?

Also, your situation above makes absolutely no distinction between wealth that they worked for, and inherited wealth which is the opposite of wealth that they worked hard for.

I’d have absolutely no problem with 95%inheritance tax above a nominal amount like €50,000.

What difference does it matter how they acquired their wealth (house)? If they worked hard for it, fair play to them and they deserve it. If they inherited it, so what. Someone close to them worked hard for it. Either way, the taxpayer would have done well enough out of it.

By all means, put a lean on the house if the pensioner can't pay the property tax so that when they die, the balance owed on the property needs to be paid by the estate of the dead person. But don't expect old age pensioners who have very little income to have to move just because they can't afford the property tax.

People bang on as if they like meritocracy, but also support the notion of inheritance which is the opposite to meritocracy.

I'm not a fan of rewarding people for sitting on their hole, but a parent working hard, paying tax and being able to leave something for their kids is a good thing. I don't see it as a negative.

Your inheritance tax is unbelievably punitive. You seem to have a gripe regarding people inheriting stuff.

I did some work on the Grosvenor inheritance a few years back. The duke of Westminster inherited about £8bn when his father died (also inherited). All legally don’t through trusts which are set up to make sure the extremely wealthy don’t have to pay the kind of tax that normal people pay. Otherwise you’d lose the nobility (and I’ve no idea why that would be a problem)

What has that got to do with forcing an auld wan to move out of her house if she can't afford the property tax?

the “bank of mum and dad” is now one of he main lenders for first time buyers and the single biggest lender. Meritocracy my hoop.

But I don't think you are correct on that point either. Yes, some Mams and Dads are in a position to help their kids with a deposit but the vast majority of Mams and Dads can't. I certainly didn't get any financial help from my parents when I was buying my house and I don't know any of my friends who did.

Again though, that's absolutely nothing to do with auld wans having to sell their house because they can't afford the property tax.

Mad_maxx · 05-09-2019 10:21pm

BattleCorp wrote: »

Mad_maxx wrote: »

It's about choices, the vast majority of people can't afford a million euro house, if you happen to live in one, don't expect the state to cover the costs of it

Besides, the state pension is more than enough to put away five hundred euro per annum for property tax

The person in the million euro house has more than likely worked hard for it and provided it for themselves, the State didn't provide it so I don't see how the person living in that house is expecting the state to cover the costs of it.

Also, you are in cloud cuckoo land if you think it's easy for pensioners to save €500 per year for property tax. Many, and I mean a very significant number of pensioners have fcukall money and are living from week to week and they wouldn't have a hope in hell of forking out €500 on property tax.

The average Pensioner has a lot more disposable cash than most thirty somethings but due to the likes of you who swallow the poor pensioner line, the government keep pandering to them

500 euro is a tenner per week

El_Duderino 09 · 05-09-2019 10:53pm

BattleCorp wrote: »

I don't agree. Imagine you are in your mid 70's. The last thing you want to do is to sell your house and move. People in their 70's, 80's etc. usually have a support network of friends, relations and neighbours around them. Are you seriously suggesting that they have to up sticks and move away from all these supports to a strange area just because they are on a state pension and live in a big house?

What difference does it matter how they acquired their wealth (house)? If they worked hard for it, fair play to them and they deserve it. If they inherited it, so what. Someone close to them worked hard for it. Either way, the taxpayer would have done well enough out of it.

By all means, put a lean on the house if the pensioner can't pay the property tax so that when they die, the balance owed on the property needs to be paid by the estate of the dead person. But don't expect old age pensioners who have very little income to have to move just because they can't afford the property tax.

I'm not a fan of rewarding people for sitting on their hole, but a parent working hard, paying tax and being able to leave something for their kids is a good thing. I don't see it as a negative.

Your inheritance tax is unbelievably punitive. You seem to have a gripe regarding people inheriting stuff.

What has that got to do with forcing an auld wan to move out of her house if she can't afford the property tax?

But I don't think you are correct on that point either. Yes, some Mams and Dads are in a position to help their kids with a deposit but the vast majority of Mams and Dads can't. I certainly didn't get any financial help from my parents when I was buying my house and I don't know any of my friends who did.

Again though, that's absolutely nothing to do with auld wans having to sell their house because they can't afford the property tax.

Hold he phone. What’s he cut off age for not having to move if you can’t afford to maintain the costs of your house? If someone hits 70/80 and they can’t afford the upkeep costs, then they have the choice to move or live beyond their means - just like every other human.

I didn’t say they have to move area. They might be in a position to downsize and live in the same area. If not, it’s a matter of behaving like everyone else in a capitalist society and live within their means.

I think you’re a good example of what I said in the last post. People pay lip service to meritocracy but in fact they will support the notion of inheritance even though it’s the opposite of meritocracy. It hardly matters if someone sits on their hole and inherits money or sits on their hole on he dole, they specifically didn’t earn the money. Someone earned it. You work and pay tax which goes to people on the dole so there’s no doubt that someone worked for it.

And the bank of mum and dad was in the news last week, whether you or I personally benefitted or not.

Social mobility is often mentioned alongside meritocracy. If you’re clever and hard working, you should rise towards the top in wealth and status even if you’re born poor. But people rarely discuss the other side of the same coin. If you’re lazy and stupid, you should fall towards the bottom in wealth and status even if you’re born rich.

Inheritance prevents that from happening. It means that if you’re born rich, chances are you stay rich and your children will stay rich. If you’re born poor, chances are you’ll stay poor and your children will be poor.

Inheritance is actually a really negative thing for a society that says it values the merits which our society claims to value.

El_Duderino 09 · 05-09-2019 10:59pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

The average Pensioner has a lot more disposable cash than most thirty somethings but due to the likes of you who swallow the poor pensioner line, the government keep pandering to them

500 euro is a tenner per week

It wa reported in the last few weeks that old people have more cash than young people for the first time in recent history (and cash doesn’t include wealth such as properties, stocks and businesses, which old people are miles ahead of young people).

Old people actually have no idea about the situations young people face. The fact that old people live so long and vote so relatively has had a massive impact on how countries are run.

It a complete mess.

Idbatterim · 05-09-2019 11:32pm

I had enough of a neighbor pensioner talking ****e the other day and after years of listening to the “ poor pensioner “ spiel I told him id heard enough of it. If they’d all worked so hard , how are they still struggling ? Struggling on the worlds most ridiculous welfare state ? Many Picked up property for a pittance ? Now they screw every cent out of the young. My heart really bleeds. I’ve mates in Dublin with good paying jobs busting their balls and that are still struggling. Fcuking do one !

BattleCorp · 06-09-2019 9:15am

Idbatterim wrote: »

I had enough of a neighbor pensioner talking ****e the other day and after years of listening to the “ poor pensioner “ spiel I told him id heard enough of it. If they’d all worked so hard , how are they still struggling ? Struggling on the worlds most ridiculous welfare state ? Many Picked up property for a pittance ? Now they screw every cent out of the young. My heart really bleeds. I’ve mates in Dublin with good paying jobs busting their balls and that are still struggling. Fcuking do one !

Some, and I am only saying some pensioners are struggling because of the difference in their working income and their State pension. Typically your income is sliced in half when you retire on the State pension yet your costs don't significantly reduce.

I can't talk about other families but I can talk about my own. And this would be similar to many families from my area.

My Dad worked as a general operative in a factory and when that closed he did bits and pieces here and there. He didn't earn a huge wage and maybe after paying for his house, rearing us kids etc. he had about €15k saved up at the time of his death.

My Mam was a housewife who minded kids and did bits and pieces and would have had fcukall saved up as she would have spent any extra on us kids. Not wasted money mind, just stuff that we would have needed.

Cue them hitting pension age and that's a drop in income to the State pension level. Cue him dying shortly after and then the household is down to one State pension. In around €250ish per week. It costs pretty much the same to insure, heat, maintain a house whether there are one or two people living there. Your expenses don't go down significantly when one spouse dies but your income does.

Now, 15 years later, house maintenance etc. has wiped that €15k and the income is still pretty sh1te. A tenner a week to some people is nothing but it can be the difference in turning on the heat a couple of days for some pensioners.

While I agree with you that not all pensioners are poor, many are. It's wrong for me to say all pensioners are poor but equally it's wrong for you to rant about all the money that pensioners have because it's not the same for everybody.

You only have to look at some of the houses for sale on Daft to see the conditions many pensioners were living in.

El_Duderino 09 · 06-09-2019 9:52am

BattleCorp wrote: »

You only have to look at some of the houses for sale on Daft to see the conditions many pensioners were living in.

If they had been prepared to downsized earlier to a house manageable by an old person, they probably wouldn’t be in that position when they get old.

El_Duderino 09 · 06-09-2019 9:56am

Idbatterim wrote: »

I had enough of a neighbor pensioner talking ****e the other day and after years of listening to the “ poor pensioner “ spiel I told him id heard enough of it. If they’d all worked so hard , how are they still struggling ? Struggling on the worlds most ridiculous welfare state ? Many Picked up property for a pittance ? Now they screw every cent out of the young. My heart really bleeds. I’ve mates in Dublin with good paying jobs busting their balls and that are still struggling. Fcuking do one !

Like anything, the whole group aren’t the same. Some pensioners are very wealthy and playing the poor pensioner cars. Others are genuinely poor. But as a group they’re definitely one of the most taken care of.

Older, wealthy and still working are probably the most pandered to politically.

El_Duderino 09 · 06-09-2019 5:32pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

If they had been prepared to downsized earlier to a house manageable by an old person, they probably wouldn’t be in that position when they get old.

Actually, thinking about it since. I think it’s extraordinary that anyone could expect not to have to move to a small house later in life. It’s an extraordinary development in in the last couple of decades. Simple fact is that people need to move to suit their lifestyle, activity, ability to maintain a house physically and financially.

I think old people should be looked after (along with all segments of society). I’d be in favour of building small manageable houses and flats for old people. Give them somewhere to go to live independently with other people at a similar stage of life.

But the idea of protecting people from having to downsize to live within their means, is wrong. Likewise, using up the disposable income of young people to pay rent for wealthy old people, is wrong.

Greentopia · 06-09-2019 7:29pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

I didn't know we were comparing Ireland to Sweden

Low income earners pay eight times more tax in Sweden than here, the left here don't want high taxes on anyone bar Denis o Brien, in other words they don't want the nordic model

As for the soc dems, wooly liberals of the highest order who are open borders fools

I didn't know we were talking about immigration. It was Merkel and the right wing CDU that was the driver of large scale immigration four years ago, not the SPDs. The Nordic countries also became a destination for many and when they couldn't cope with the numbers they put in border controls.

Eight times more tax? oh LAWL. I paid exactly 36% tax in my full time job in Gothenburg and I wasn't on high wages. 36% which paid for all local municipal, and national services including my healthcare.
If you're going to pick a figure at random at least make it somewhat believable.

Many Social Dems here do want the Nordic model. They often cite services there as the aspiration and of course realise the tax system would have to be restructured to develop this.

“Social Demoracy recognises the greater good over self-interest; the need for social safety nets and it recognises the importance of universalism of public services for all in society,” -Catherine Murphy said recently.

That's classic Social Democracy and something I heard many Swedish Soc Dems say when I was there.

Greentopia · 06-09-2019 7:40pm

BattleCorp wrote: »

I don't agree. Imagine you are in your mid 70's. The last thing you want to do is to sell your house and move. People in their 70's, 80's etc. usually have a support network of friends, relations and neighbours around them. Are you seriously suggesting that they have to up sticks and move away from all these supports to a strange area just because they are on a state pension and live in a big house?

My mother sold her home in her 80s and down scaled. She stayed in her own locality. A close friends of mine who's parents are now of similar age did likewise. Older people often do this, no problem.

BattleCorp wrote: »

What difference does it matter how they acquired their wealth (house)? If they worked hard for it, fair play to them and they deserve it. If they inherited it, so what. Someone close to them worked hard for it. Either way, the taxpayer would have done well enough out of it.

Many didn't work hard for it, they inherited. That's called unearned privilege and certainly doesn't make them deserving of having something handed to them for free just because they happen to be born into the right circumstances.
And no-one works harder than those on minimum wage. Why don't they deserve nice houses?

And I'm speaking as someone who inherited a house. But at least I realise I did nothing to deserve it and don't want anyone telling me "fair play" for being the beneficiary of unearned privilege.

whiskeyman · 09-10-2019 12:01pm

Just heard an ad with Eddie Hobbs promoting his financial services on the radio.

We're f**ked now.

Sleepy · 09-10-2019 12:19pm

Our problems historically, currently and in the future all largely stem from the same thing: electing poor politicians. We elect a bunch of landlords, school-teachers, publicans and the occasional barrister, usually on the basis of which side of the civil war our grandparents fought on, and seem surprised when they make poor legislators and worse ministers for inefficient, government departments.

As soon as there's a sign of a boom, we piss public money into the wind (Christmas bonuses for freeloaders and bribes for OAPs, occasionally a few scraps for the PAYE workers footing the bill for everything else).

Any experienced financial controller could save millions from the public expenditure if given free reign to do so, TBH, I'm confident I'd manage it myself if allowed to tell a few PS unions to get ****ed when they started whinging about normal business practices (i.e. letting redundant staff go).

antimatterx · 09-10-2019 3:27pm

whiskeyman wrote: »

Just heard an ad with Eddie Hobbs promoting his financial services on the radio.

We're f**ked now.

How is he allowed work in the finance sector. My Cat would give better advice. In fact, my Cat wouldn't of invested in Detroit.

BattleCorp · 09-10-2019 3:30pm

Sleepy wrote: »

Any experienced financial controller could save millions from the public expenditure if given free reign to do so, TBH, I'm confident I'd manage it myself if allowed to tell a few PS unions to get ****ed when they started whinging about normal business practices (i.e. letting redundant staff go).

That's the problem. No politician is able to stand up to them. They have the power to bring the country crashing down.

antimatterx · 09-10-2019 3:34pm

And no-one works harder than those on minimum wage. Why don't they deserve nice houses?

What a stupid comment - Just because someone makes **** money, does not make them hard working. If they were such hard workers, they could of worked into a better job.

cj maxx · 09-10-2019 3:35pm

Ireland was always a boom and bust economy. Always !

mariaalice · 09-10-2019 3:46pm

Let me see, have I got this correct its cause by welfare, pensioners, and public services unions.

Its nothing to do with our being a small open economy at the mercy of the likes of Brexit or trade wars, its nothing to do with the short-termism of the typer of government we have or anything like that.

Ipso · 09-10-2019 3:50pm

cjmc wrote: »

Ireland was always a boom and bust economy. Always !

Shirley you mean a bust and bustier economy.

optogirl · 09-10-2019 3:51pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I think that’s harsh on McWilliams. He’s not saying the recession is here. He is saying that some of the economic indications are looking like the current boom is running out of steam.

But he hasn’t tried to predict a time and date of the next recession. I think it’s pretty important to try to understand why the economy works the way it does or why it went well or poorly.

Bloody sure he hasn't. Then he can say 'it's coming' at a non-specific date & time and be proved right.

Thelonious Monk · 09-10-2019 3:58pm

Just back from Zurich where its so well run its almost jaw dropping. Amazing transport and planning. We seem to build our towns and cities based around cars and semi ds and have lots of one off houses all over ireland.
Why is it far better run places like Switzerland can have high rise apartments everywhere with supporting infrastructure but we cant? I know theyve been filthy rich for centuries but planning is just something we dont do. Building up seems to be sacrilege here.

Blueshoe · 09-10-2019 4:02pm

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Just back from Zurich where its so well run its almost jaw dropping. Amazing transport and planning. We seem to build our towns and cities based around cars and semi ds and have lots of one off houses all over ireland.
Why is it far better run places like Switzerland can have high rise apartments everywhere with supporting infrastructure but we cant? I know theyve been filthy rich for centuries but planning is just something we dont do. Building up seems to be sacrilege here.

The Swiss were always dodgy.

uch · 09-10-2019 4:02pm

Are we about to see the return of the Public Service Bashing threads? haven't had a good one of them in a while

Blueshoe · 09-10-2019 4:07pm

uch wrote: »

Are we about to see the return of the Public Service Bashing threads? haven't had a good one of them in a while

There doesn't need to be one. Everyone is wise to it by now. There isn't anyone left that needs to be educated on public v private sectors.

topper75 · 09-10-2019 4:13pm

InTheShadows wrote: »

Paddy likes to piss on the poor and doff the cap to his supposed betters, always has always will.

A lot of that 'poor' though don't merit any respect anyway. They are dedicated welfare class who refuse to move house or retrain. I don't seek to 'piss' on anyone but I am absolutely clear that I owe them nothing.

Wanderer78 wrote: »

It ll be interesting to see what happens the Swedish economy, as they try deal with their building boom

Sweden's going backwards like everywhere else. They have a big factory slowdown and they have even gone so far as cutting the royal family!

Sweden has suffered the most violent slump in manufacturing output since the depths of the Lehman crisis in late 2008, flashing an early warning signal for the rest of Europe’s industrial bloc.

It seems trendy to suggest we should follow Scandi models but it won't fly here in our culture. In Norway, tax receipts are published in newspapers for all to see. Paddy, Seán, or whatever he calls himself, will not accept that culturally.

cj maxx · 09-10-2019 4:47pm

Ipso wrote: »

Shirley you mean a bust and bustier economy.

That's a far far better description

El_Duderino 09 · 09-10-2019 6:46pm

optogirl wrote: »

Bloody sure he hasn't. Then he can say 'it's coming' at a non-specific date & time and be proved right.

Ah, that's cynical. Nobody knows when it will come. He's not even saying it's imminent. He's reporting on the economic indicators as they exist now and telling me about them. That's all I want him to do so I've no problem with him doing that.

Boom bust economy?

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