General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

L1011 · 15-01-2020 2:18pm

toleratethis wrote: »

Has Marian Harkin a shot at a seat, she was a good MEP.

Very good shot. Held it before the dual mandate ban

ddarcy · 15-01-2020 2:49pm

L1011 wrote: »

Very good shot. Held it before the dual mandate ban

FG are running a bunch of unknown eejits in Sligo. So she could very well take the FG vote. There’s also the issue that people here can’t stand Leo so it would be giving the two fingers to FG in a way but keeping a FG type of candidate. So in essence a protest vote. She smells blood and can realistically take a seat.

sid waddell · 15-01-2020 2:55pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Deary has no hope and never did but his transfers will be good for someone, possibly Nash.

Why not?

He pulled in over 3k first preferences in 2016 at a time when the Greens were still not far off rock bottom.

The Green vote is likely to more than double nationally this time, it could multiply by three or four times. If Dearey doubles or near doubles his first preference vote, and I don't think that's impossible or even unlikely, he's likely to take a seat on transfers.

Gerry Adams is retiring and SF are likely to lose a seat here.

Peter Fitzpatrick is no longer FG and will probably lose his seat and FG are unlikely to pick up two.

Ged Nash has a big shot at retaking his seat.

FG, FF and SF will take one each.

That means the remaining two seats will be fought out between Labour, Green, FF2, Fitzpatrick and possibly SF2.

I think Dearey stands an excellent chance there and it could even be him with Nash to tip the balance to three left, two right seats.

Water John · 15-01-2020 4:47pm

An Ciarraioch had posted this, which is Eoin O'Malley's predictions.
https://politicalreform.ie/2020/01/15/early-2020-election-predictions/

In short FF 58 FG 44

gavinoontheweb · 15-01-2020 5:09pm

Dublin Rathdown (3 seater): Madigan (FG) & Martin (GP) should be safe

Battle for the last seat between: Ross (IND), McCarthy (LAB), Richmond (FG) or Brennan (FF)

Larbre34 · 15-01-2020 5:19pm

It occurs that FGs selection policy generally and tactical approach to some constituencies in particular is abysmal.

Leo has been frankly negligent is his oversight of development of the party in the way a Haughey or Ahern would have been. Aside from age related retirements, some of those strolling off the FG stage at an early age are a strong signal of that.

L1011 · 15-01-2020 5:25pm

Water John wrote: »

An Ciarraioch had posted this, which is Eoin O'Malley's predictions.
https://politicalreform.ie/2020/01/15/early-2020-election-predictions/

In short FF 58 FG 44

5 for "radical left"? Seem to be counting Catherine Cleary as one of them but also have SolRPBP holding seats in areas they were wiped out in in May (and November in one)

Not noticing much else particularly odd as yet.

Agent Smith · 15-01-2020 5:26pm

gavinoontheweb wrote: »

Dublin Rathdown (3 seater): Madigan (FG) & Martin (GP) should be safe

Battle for the last seat between: Ross (IND), McCarthy (LAB), Richmond (FG) or Brennan (FF)

Richmond Has been Visable for the last 3 years every second night About brexit, He's a very strong contender for that 3rd seat

blanch152 · 15-01-2020 5:29pm

Water John wrote: »

An Ciarraioch had posted this, which is Eoin O'Malley's predictions.
https://politicalreform.ie/2020/01/15/early-2020-election-predictions/

In short FF 58 FG 44

FF 58, SF 17 gives 75, with independent support (Healy-Raes anyone?) gets a majority.

FF 58, LAB 9, Greens 7, Soc Dems 3, gives 77, 79 with the Healy-Raes. An FG Ceann Comhairle and they are nearly there.

gavinoontheweb · 15-01-2020 5:30pm

Agent Smith wrote: »

Richmond Has been Visable for the last 3 years every second night About brexit, He's a very strong contender for that 3rd seat

Depends on the extent of the collapse in the Ross vote, himself and Richmond have a Stepaside base. McCarthy will pick up votes there also.

Water John · 15-01-2020 5:35pm

MM will not go into coalition with SF. If it means FF going in with SF he will not be Taoiseach.
By far his preference would be the Rainbow Coalition. He will need a good social policy to take the other three parties on board.
Rarely do a varied opposition unite to vote you down. Having arrangements with a number of Inds, Grealish & Lowry. They have been consistent in supporting whomsoever they have an arrangement with.

Larbre34 · 15-01-2020 5:36pm

You're wasting your time with the Maths lads, it'll be Confidence and Supply II - Supply Harder, only Meehole will be the big T and there'll be no independent ministers, cos lets face it both FG and FF are convinced in hindsight that it was a wholly unnecessary fig-leaf last time around.

Besides which, with McGrath and Halligan off the pitch, the only independents left will be Zappone and a cohort of loo-lahs unfit to manage the bingo takings not to mind a senior ministry. And I include Sir Winston Churchtown in that.

FF 56 FG 44 - a nice round Hundert and Joanie Burton for Ceann Comhairle!

L1011 · 15-01-2020 5:45pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

You're wasting your time with the Maths lads, it'll be Confidence and Supply II - Supply Harder, only Meehole will be the big T and there'll be no independent ministers, cos lets face it both FG and FF are convinced in hindsight that it was a wholly unnecessary fig-leaf last time around.

Besides which, with McGrath and Halligan off the pitch, the only independents left will be Zappone and a cohort of loo-lahs unfit to manage the bingo takings not to mind a senior ministry. And I include Sir Winston Churchtown in that.

FF 56 FG 44 - a nice round Hundert and Joanie Burton for Ceann Comhairle!

Zappone's expenses will have cost her votes, as will testifying at the Jobstown trial. I'm far from convinced she'll survive. 100 votes over the chasing FG candidate last time; and was massively behind until the last transfers.

If Burton's back in she'd jump at CC because that constituency is never anything other than a bloodbath. But I'm not sure anyone would want to offer it to her!

timmyntc · 15-01-2020 5:52pm

I feel the "Green wave" might be overexaggerated a bit.

European elections would give some hope - but the reality is when push comes to shove social issues (including climate crisis) comes a distant second to the issues of the day - rental crisis and spiralling insurance costs.

If the Greens can come up with a cohesive strategy to tackle both of these (one without the introduction of more regressive taxation) then they should make good gains. Otherwise, I'd expect similar number to 2016.

Water John · 15-01-2020 5:57pm

If the train is Green this election, and it looks like it is, nothing can stop that. Getting it to transfer into seats is their main issue. Remember before, and it also happened with Lb another time, when they should have run two candidates in some constituencies.

sid waddell · 15-01-2020 6:04pm

timmyntc wrote: »

I feel the "Green wave" might be overexaggerated a bit.

European elections would give some hope - but the reality is when push comes to shove social issues (including climate crisis) comes a distant second to the issues of the day - rental crisis and spiralling insurance costs.

If the Greens can come up with a cohesive strategy to tackle both of these (one without the introduction of more regressive taxation) then they should make good gains. Otherwise, I'd expect similar number to 2016.

I'm not so sure. The Greens got two seats in 2016. They'll have plenty more this time whatever happens.

Their vote could well be heavily concentrated, ie. they aren't going to get much of a vote in Cork North West or South West or Galway East or Roscommon or Donegal or Cavan-Monaghan etc., but where they get a good vote, they could be in a position to make it count.

And crucially, they'll be very transfer friendly.

sid waddell · 15-01-2020 6:14pm

What are Labour's prospects?

They currently have 7 seats - Howlin (Wexford), Ryan (Fingal), Kelly (Tipperary), Penrose (Longford-Westmeath), Burton (Dublin West), O'Sullivan (Limerick City), Sherlock (Cork East).

I'd expect Howlin and Sherlock to be returned.

Ryan and Penrose are standing down.

Labour have a chance of holding the seat in Fingal I think but Longford-Westmeath will be lost.

Burton, Kelly and O'Sullivan will all face huge battles to hold on and all three could easily go.

As for potential gains, you're looking at Aodhan O'Riordain (Dublin Bay North), Ged Nash (Louth) and Kevin Humphries (Dublin Bay South). The first two have a great chance, Humphries is probably an underdog.

After that Mark Wall in Kildare South and maybe Cork North Central are the only two hopes I can see.

It looks grim enough for them and they'll be doing well just to stand still.

FrancieBrady · 15-01-2020 6:16pm

timmyntc wrote: »

I feel the "Green wave" might be overexaggerated a bit.

European elections would give some hope - but the reality is when push comes to shove social issues (including climate crisis) comes a distant second to the issues of the day - rental crisis and spiralling insurance costs.

If the Greens can come up with a cohesive strategy to tackle both of these (one without the introduction of more regressive taxation) then they should make good gains. Otherwise, I'd expect similar number to 2016.

I think a lot depends on how the Greens are treated in this one. If another party goes after their policies on the basis of what they will cost joe soap I would predict a fall back in their surge.

FrancieBrady · 15-01-2020 6:19pm

sid waddell wrote: »

I'm not so sure. The Greens got two seats in 2016. They'll have plenty more this time whatever happens.

Their vote could well be heavily concentrated, ie. they aren't going to get much of a vote in Cork North West or South West or Galway East or Roscommon or Donegal or Cavan-Monaghan etc., but where they get a good vote, they could be in a position to make it count.

And crucially, they'll be very transfer friendly.

They are standing a very young first time candidate in Cavan/Monaghan and have no real profile as a working party on the ground here. I'd be surprised if they figure in the final running.

seamus · 15-01-2020 6:34pm

First online ads coming out.

FF going for the "Ireland has crises and we can fix them" schtick, and it's not going down well.

FG going for the "Don't change a jockey in the middle of the race" approach - taking a leaf out of Boris's book and making this an election about making the best of Brexit.

Based on that alone, I'd say FG have gone for the right message, but I don't know if it'll make a huge difference

is_that_so · 15-01-2020 6:54pm

sid waddell wrote: »

Why not?

He pulled in over 3k first preferences in 2016 at a time when the Greens were still not far off rock bottom.

The Green vote is likely to more than double nationally this time, it could multiply by three or four times. If Dearey doubles or near doubles his first preference vote, and I don't think that's impossible or even unlikely, he's likely to take a seat on transfers.

Gerry Adams is retiring and SF are likely to lose a seat here.

Peter Fitzpatrick is no longer FG and will probably lose his seat and FG are unlikely to pick up two.

Ged Nash has a big shot at retaking his seat.

FG, FF and SF will take one each.

That means the remaining two seats will be fought out between Labour, Green, FF2, Fitzpatrick and possibly SF2.

I think Dearey stands an excellent chance there and it could even be him with Nash to tip the balance to three left, two right seats.

It's all about geography and Deary has been polling about that for multiple elections. He'd need to hit about 10% to be in with a chance.

There will be a Dundalk and Drogheda TD, that's FG and FF. There will also, based on average support, be a SF seat.

Fitzpatrick has no hope as the vote was a FG vote, evidenced by the need to manage votes on both occasions.

For the final two seats you'd expect the FG vote management to do its business again as they have a very good vote getter in O'Dowd and that should bring in the second FG candidate. They nailed two seats in 2016 off barely 20% of the FPVs

FF No 2 is a non-entity and the field is too crowded in the south to make any impact and he will not figure.

SF face a challenge in their own vote management. Munster is no Adams and Dundalk candidate is a newbie. If that vote was all Adams they'll struggle.

Nash would probably be favoured to nick that last seat. He is well-liked and was just shy in 2016.

So 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF and one of SF or Labour.

Frank Bullitt · 15-01-2020 7:47pm

When will we get any idea of polls etc?

blanch152 · 15-01-2020 8:11pm

is_that_so wrote: »

It's all about geography and Deary has been polling about that for multiple elections. He'd need to hit about 10% to be in with a chance.

There will be a Dundalk and Drogheda TD, that's FG and FF. There will also, based on average support, be a SF seat.

Fitzpatrick has no hope as the vote was a FG vote, evidenced by the need to manage votes on both occasions.

For the final two seats you'd expect the FG vote management to do its business again as they have a very good vote getter in O'Dowd and that should bring in the second FG candidate. They nailed two seats in 2016 off barely 20% of the FPVs

FF No 2 is a non-entity and the field is too crowded in the south to make any impact and he will not figure.

SF face a challenge in their own vote management. Munster is no Adams and Dundalk candidate is a newbie. If that vote was all Adams they'll struggle.

Nash would probably be favoured to nick that last seat. He is well-liked and was just shy in 2016.

So 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF and one of SF or Labour.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Louth_County_Council_election

Had a look at the local election results. Greens got 6.4%, but they only ran in three of the five wards.

Across those three wards, their average vote was 9.3%. While a Green seat is unlikely, it is not impossible.

Water John · 15-01-2020 8:17pm

MM may already have an understanding with the Healy Raes;
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/fianna-fail-strategy-fuels-speculation-of-deal-with-healy-rae-brothers-975715.html

robman60 · 15-01-2020 8:31pm

sid waddell wrote: »

What are Labour's prospects?

They currently have 7 seats - Howlin (Wexford), Ryan (Fingal), Kelly (Tipperary), Penrose (Longford-Westmeath), Burton (Dublin West), O'Sullivan (Limerick City), Sherlock (Cork East).

I'd expect Howlin and Sherlock to be returned.

Ryan and Penrose are standing down.

Labour have a chance of holding the seat in Fingal I think but Longford-Westmeath will be lost.

Burton, Kelly and O'Sullivan will all face huge battles to hold on and all three could easily go.

As for potential gains, you're looking at Aodhan O'Riordain (Dublin Bay North), Ged Nash (Louth) and Kevin Humphries (Dublin Bay South). The first two have a great chance, Humphries is probably an underdog.

After that Mark Wall in Kildare South and maybe Cork North Central are the only two hopes I can see.

It looks grim enough for them and they'll be doing well just to stand still.

Kelly will get in too. Five seater in Tipp so he will get in as the left winger there.

Still though, I agree with your sentiment. I think they may drop even further from their trouncing in 2016. The young urban they presumably do better with are likely to be lost to the Greens I'd say. I took the Paddy Power bet of Under 8.5 seats at 5/6. I think they'll be in the 4-6 region so seemed like value to me.

sid waddell · 15-01-2020 8:55pm

robman60 wrote: »

Kelly will get in too. Five seater in Tipp so he will get in as the left winger there.

Still though, I agree with your sentiment. I think they may drop even further from their trouncing in 2016. The young urban they presumably do better with are likely to be lost to the Greens I'd say. I took the Paddy Power bet of Under 8.5 seats at 5/6. I think they'll be in the 4-6 region so seemed like value to me.

I think the left wing Independent Seamus Healy is running again? He's been a TD for donkey's years but must be quite old at this stage. His vote seems very solid and he's South Tipp which I think is a benefit to him.

Kelly only got in very narrowly last time, Healy a bit more comfortably.

Lowry, McGrath and Cahill (FF) are nailed on there you'd think with the remaining two in play between Healy, Kelly, FG and FF2.

I'd be leaning towards FF2 (Sandra Farrell) having enough for one of those seats and she is North Tipp which is bad for Kelly, as he's North Tipp as well.

Lowry takes a huge chunk of the FG vote like Naughten does in Roscommon, so that's how FG didn't get a seat last time. They could miss out again.

I'd be going with Lowry (IND), McGrath (IND), Cahill (FF), Healy (left IND), Farrell (FF), in that order.

If Labour are 5/6 for under 8.5 seats I'd say that's an absolute banker.

beggars_bush · 15-01-2020 9:37pm

Once again I hope no FG seat in Roscommon

People have long memories and they don't forget Enda Kenny standing up in the square telling lies about the local hospital

Water John · 15-01-2020 9:43pm

Naughton did SFA as a Minister, as did most of the Inds in Cabinet.

beggars_bush · 15-01-2020 9:44pm

Water John wrote: »

Naughton did SFA as a Minister, as did most of the Inds in Cabinet.

His marriage broke up because of it

Plus the national broadband was eventually signed

PS, I don't have a vote in that constituency

Frank Bullitt · 15-01-2020 10:18pm

The David McWilliams podcast will be my saving grace for this election.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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