Scottish independence

First Up · 29-12-2020 11:39am

TheCitizen wrote: »

They won’t be getting a Referendum any time in the immediate future. Even if one is announced it’d be a year or so in advance. They don’t need to bide their time pushing for it and calling for it.

I agree another referendum is probably a few years away. The point is that they should use the time building towards it (including back channels with EU members) and not just keep beating a drum about it.

The case for Scottish independence is likely to become self-evident but those campaigning for it will need to re-assure people that they won't be taking a leap in the dark. Brexit (stupidly) was all about leaving, with little or nothing about where they would arrive. They are starting to pay for it now and its going to get an awful lot worse. Scotland mustn't make the same mistake.

And if they aren't doing it already they should be getting the advice of Irish politicians and diplomats on how to win friends and influence people around Europe.

TheCitizen · 29-12-2020 12:08pm

First Up wrote: »

I agree another referendum is probably a few years away. The point is that they should use the time building towards it (including back channels with EU members) and not just keep beating a drum about it.

The case for Scottish independence is likely to become self-evident but those campaigning for it will need to re-assure people that they won't be taking a leap in the dark. Brexit (stupidly) was all about leaving, with little or nothing about where they would arrive. They are starting to pay for it now and its going to get an awful lot worse. Scotland mustn't make the same mistake.

And if they aren't doing it already they should be getting the advice of Irish politicians and diplomats on how to win friends and influence people around Europe.

Yes would agree with that. Even if it's a no brainer for Scotland to leave the UK they still need to construct their argument for it coherently and as you say build channels of relationships with other countries including England, get the English used to the idea that it's happening as well. In many ways the Scottish government are already acting as if they are Independent. They've been very visible in their response to Covid for example.

The SNP also doesn't have universal approval among those who are in favour of Scottish Independence. The Green Party in Scotland are in favour of Independence but also there really should be a pro Independence Scottish Labour Party. There will be post Scottish Independence I'd imagine.

A Dub in Glasgo · 29-12-2020 12:08pm

The Edinburgh Agreement was signed October 2012, almost two years before the actual referendum

bob mcbob · 29-12-2020 12:26pm

sam1986uk wrote: »

I predict the Independence polling will go back down to a normal 45% next year when the average pleb realizes that Brexit is not a disaster and they're still buying tomatoes and tangerines in Tesco whilst planning their next holiday in Tenerife.

Really, I think it will go the other way over 60%.

The main Brexit supporters in Scotland were the fishing communities and they have, unsurprisingly, be shafted by Boris

Elspeth Macdonald, the chief executive of the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation, said she did not believe the deal delivered what had been promised.

She said: “The principles that the government said it supported – control over access, quota shares based on zonal attachment, annual negotiations – do not appear to be central to the agreement. After all the promises given to the industry, that is hugely disappointing.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/28/betrayed-uk-fishing-industry-says-brexit-deal-threatens-long-term-damage

Capt'n Midnight · 29-12-2020 12:56pm

First Up wrote: »

I think all of that is true but independence now would mean multiple uncertainties. Setting up the institutions of an independent state, re-configuring the political landscape with the SNP's raison d'etre off the table, finding their way in Europe and all while coping with the economic and social disruption of a border with a less than happy and nationalist leaning England.

Most of the green areas are already regionally split.

Blue areas a list of Scottish govt institutions

Most of the institutions are already setup. Parliament. Separate legal system. Separate NHS, policing. Separate utilities for the most part.

All that really changes for most institutions is that the head of some of the existing Scottish institutions will no longer have to report to a whole of UK overseer. Everyone else will still report to Edinburgh still pay local taxes and for the medium to long term still get paid in Scottish sterling.

BonnieSituation · 29-12-2020 1:40pm

First Up wrote: »

I agree another referendum is probably a few years away. The point is that they should use the time building towards it (including back channels with EU members) and not just keep beating a drum about it.

The case for Scottish independence is likely to become self-evident but those campaigning for it will need to re-assure people that they won't be taking a leap in the dark. Brexit (stupidly) was all about leaving, with little or nothing about where they would arrive. They are starting to pay for it now and its going to get an awful lot worse. Scotland mustn't make the same mistake.

And if they aren't doing it already they should be getting the advice of Irish politicians and diplomats on how to win friends and influence people around Europe.

But the SNP aren't beating a drum about it. The only people that keep going on about indyref2 are Unionists. They are the ones with headlines every day stating that "now isn't the time...".

Sturgeon and the SNP are just governing the country. There's a reason why she has been tempering and dampening expectations on a second ref at every turn. The most politically astute in the SNP, and that's a sizable cohort to be fair, know that now isn't the time, but they have to keep the loud impatient wing, like Cherry and her crew onside.

We all know that after the Holyrood elections in May that the countdown will begin.

BonnieSituation · 29-12-2020 1:42pm

First Up wrote: »

I think all of that is true but independence now would mean multiple uncertainties. Setting up the institutions of an independent state, re-configuring the political landscape with the SNP's raison d'etre off the table, finding their way in Europe and all while coping with the economic and social disruption of a border with a less than happy and nationalist leaning England.

My guess (and I think my advice) would be to bide their time. The options will become clearer as Brexit bites and some those inclined to cling to what they know may decide that they don't like it very much after all.

The EU will be there to help but will wait to be asked.

Setting up institutions for a new state isn't the most taxing obstacle when the current state is a modern western democracy that will achieve an agreed independence rather than one via revolution.

They have practically all of these institutions in place as it stands.

29-12-2020 1:47pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

They have practically all of these institutions in place as it stands.

They even have an oven ready Head of State.

First Up · 29-12-2020 1:59pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Setting up institutions for a new state isn't the most taxing obstacle when the current state is a modern western democracy that will achieve an agreed independence rather than one via revolution.

They have practically all of these institutions in place as it stands.

Well apart from a Finance Ministry, a Foreign Office and diplomatic service, a Ministry of Defense and a few others. I wouldn't underestimate the scale of the task, including the wooing of experienced personnel from UK institutions back home.

bob mcbob · 29-12-2020 2:25pm

bob mcbob wrote: »

Really, I think it will go the other way over 60%.

The main Brexit supporters in Scotland were the fishing communities and they have, unsurprisingly, be shafted by Boris

Elspeth Macdonald, the chief executive of the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation, said she did not believe the deal delivered what had been promised.

She said: “The principles that the government said it supported – control over access, quota shares based on zonal attachment, annual negotiations – do not appear to be central to the agreement. After all the promises given to the industry, that is hugely disappointing.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/28/betrayed-uk-fishing-industry-says-brexit-deal-threatens-long-term-damage

Oops it seems that this great Brexit deal turns out to be even worse than thought for Scottish fishing

Fergus Ewing, the Scottish cabinet secretary for the rural economy, said that despite UK government claims the deal would greatly increase the catch for domestic trawlers, many fleets and ports would experience adverse impacts. That was “deeply troubling”, he said.

“Scottish coastal communities were told that any Brexit deal would mean a very large rise in fishing opportunities. In fact, for the key stocks that the Scottish industry depends on, far from seeing a big increase, there will actually be a fall in the quantity of fish they can land.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/29/scotland-faces-cuts-to-cod-and-haddock-fisheries-under-brexit-deal

It's strange that the leaders of the Scottish Tories (Ross & Davidson) have nothing to say about the benefits of the Brexit deal.

Water John · 29-12-2020 4:08pm

The UK looked for something like 60% alteration in fish quotas, EU offered 15/17%. They settled on 25%. Who do you think won?

Capt'n Midnight · 29-12-2020 7:07pm

Water John wrote: »

The UK looked for something like 60% alteration in fish quotas, EU offered 15/17%. They settled on 25%. Who do you think won?

Actually it's 15% in 2021 with 2.5% more a year for each of the four years after that.

And then fishing is up for negotiation again.

Scotland held most of it's quota's while 55% of the English ones are foreign owned.

eire4 · 29-12-2020 7:39pm

bob mcbob wrote: »

Really, I think it will go the other way over 60%.

The main Brexit supporters in Scotland were the fishing communities and they have, unsurprisingly, be shafted by Boris

Elspeth Macdonald, the chief executive of the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation, said she did not believe the deal delivered what had been promised.

She said: “The principles that the government said it supported – control over access, quota shares based on zonal attachment, annual negotiations – do not appear to be central to the agreement. After all the promises given to the industry, that is hugely disappointing.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/28/betrayed-uk-fishing-industry-says-brexit-deal-threatens-long-term-damage

I would tend to agree the behaviour of London toward Scotland shows no signs of moderating so I think the trend towards 60% yes is likely to continue.

Muahahaha · 29-12-2020 7:41pm

Editorial in the Guardian today about Scottish independence. Says there has now been 17 opinion polls in a row showing a preference for Leave with the latest on Dec 17th being the highest margin yet at 58%
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/29/the-guardian-view-on-the-future-of-the-union-britain-faces-breakup

CrabRevolution · 30-12-2020 12:37am

TheCitizen wrote: »

You’re using terms like “flooded with people from Eastern Europe”. That’s racist xenophobic language, there’s no two ways about it.

Your username is sam1986UK? and you expect us to believe you voted Yes to Scottish Independence in 2014, you’re havin a laugh mate. Voted Yes in 2014 and would now vote No? Even if you’re actually bona fide in what you claim you’re very much in the minority in that scenario. Recent consistent polling would back that up. You got plenty of replies though, fair play.

There's a specific technique to this. A poster supports a position but doesn't want to be associated with the more negative or flat out wrong aspects of that position; so instead they claim to have previously supported the opposite side (in this case independence) but have been won over by the logic of their new side.

Reminds me a lot of our friend in the Brexit thread who claims to have voted remain and have no time for Brexit or Boris Johnson, yet in their posts they support every single brexiter position, blame the EU and Ireland whenever anything has gone wrong, and greeted every single bit of brexit negotiation news with a claim that the UK were running rings around the EU.

bob mcbob · 30-12-2020 11:54am

From the Brexit loving Telegraph -

This article was published 2 days ago written by Alan Cochrane

PM's fishing deal is not perfect, but it's better than the alternative
SNP had been hoping for a disastrous conclusion for trade talks, but Tories hope Johnson's deal will allow party to make inroads

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2020/12/28/pms-fishing-deal-not-perfect-better-alternative/

Same newspaper, same writer 24 hours later

Brexit backlash from angry fishermen is the last thing the Scottish Tories need
In bid to fight off SNP’s bid to break up Britain, PM's first priority will surely have to be to placate the unhappy fishing industry

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2020/12/29/brexit-backlash-angry-fishermen-last-thing-scottish-tories-need/

The ironic thing is that Gove is from a fishing family in Aberdeen. I don't imagine he will be very welcome there anymore.

eire4 · 31-12-2020 7:40pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Editorial in the Guardian today about Scottish independence. Says there has now been 17 opinion polls in a row showing a preference for Leave with the latest on Dec 17th being the highest margin yet at 58%
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/29/the-guardian-view-on-the-future-of-the-union-britain-faces-breakup

The momentum certainly seems to be going in one direction and with brexit finally about to fully kick in and London continuing to basically thumb its nose at Scotland I can see that 60% mark being hit at some point in the new year.

Kaybaykwah · 31-12-2020 7:48pm

The Scots will never kick out their gracious sovereign. She spends a week every a year at Holyroodhouse in Edinburgh. That should be enough to show the Scottish Nation that they are loved from above.

Water John · 31-12-2020 8:07pm

Indy doesn't stop the Queen being Head of State.

A Dub in Glasgo · 03-01-2021 8:20pm

Johnson now saying the UK should only allow another independence referendum in 2055... the man is deluded

https://twitter.com/GillDurham/status/1345708395446349824

pixelburp · 03-01-2021 8:51pm

And with that, support for independence will creep up another percentage point or two. I mean to be fair, this has been the boilerplate response from all Tories questioned on the subject. So no great surprise Johnson might say the same, only that the messenger is the worst possible one.

Seth Brundle · 03-01-2021 9:58pm

Just wondering, if Johnson continues with the 2055 for the next referendum, what can the Scots do to bring it forwards?
Are they completely at the mercy of the PM?

Imreoir2 · 03-01-2021 10:09pm

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Just wondering, if Johnson continues with the 2055 for the next referendum, what can the Scots do to bring it forwards?
Are they completely at the mercy of the PM?

If they want a referendum, they are at the mercy of the PM unless they can somehow convince the courts that the Scottish parliament rightly has to power to hold a referendum.

Other options include waiting until the parliamentry mathmatics of Westminster puts them in the position of Kingmaker and then demand a referendum as the price of making someone PM, a direct action campaign to try to force the British government to conceed a referendum (mass protests, strikes, walking out of parliament etc), or a Unilateral Declaration of Independance.

None of them are great options though, option 1 might take decades, option 2 may well not work, and option 3 is very risky.

Capt'n Midnight · 03-01-2021 10:27pm

UK local and regional assembly elections. Thursday, 6 May 2021.

Local council elections in England
Local and Combined Authority Mayoral elections
Mayor of London and London Assembly elections
Police and Crime Commissioner elections in England and Wales

Senedd Cymru/Welsh Parliamentary election

Scottish Parliamentary election

The Tories should romp home with the Brexit Bonus, once everyone sees the unicorns frolicking in the sunny uplands.

forgottenhills · 03-01-2021 11:28pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

UK local and regional assembly elections. Thursday, 6 May 2021.

Local council elections in England
Local and Combined Authority Mayoral elections
Mayor of London and London Assembly elections
Police and Crime Commissioner elections in England and Wales

Senedd Cymru/Welsh Parliamentary election

Scottish Parliamentary election

The Tories should romp home with the Brexit Bonus, once everyone sees the unicorns frolicking in the sunny uplands.

The next UK elections will centre on how their COVID programme is going, not on Brexit. To most Brexiteers Brexit is effectively over, the sky hasn't fallen in and any small delays at the ports or with customs forms is someone else's problem. If the UK's vaccine programme goes ahead reasonably well, and if Sunak continues to pay out COVID job support then the Tories will do as well as they normally do in mid term elections. Their Labour opposition are not exactly hitting it out of the park at present either.

A Dub in Glasgo · 03-01-2021 11:33pm

forgottenhills wrote: »

The next UK elections will centre on how their COVID programme is going, not on Brexit. To most Brexiteers Brexit is effectively over, the sky hasn't fallen in and any small delays at the ports or with customs forms is someone else's problem. If the UK's vaccine programme goes ahead reasonably well, and if Sunak continues to pay out COVID job support then the Tories will do as well as they normally do in mid term elections. Their Labour opposition are not exactly hitting it out of the park at present either.

In a thread of Scottish Independence, Brexit is not irrelevant

forgottenhills · 03-01-2021 11:37pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

In a thread of Scottish Independence, Brexit is not irrelevant

Yes it will be more relevant in Scotland of course. But I was replying to a post about the Tories chances across a host of UK local and regional elections.

03-01-2021 11:49pm

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Just wondering, if Johnson continues with the 2055 for the next referendum, what can the Scots do to bring it forwards?
Are they completely at the mercy of the PM?

I can't imagine the scots tolerating being told they can't vote on their own fate until 2055.

They could just run an advisory referendum and if it demonstrated a desire to leave Westminster would look anti-democratic refusing them the ability to leave until 2055.

BonnieSituation · 04-01-2021 12:42am

The May Scottish Parliament elections are the "advisory referendum".

First thing's first though, we need to see how the court case goes at the end of the month.

Imreoir2 · 04-01-2021 1:04am

Deleted User wrote: »

I can't imagine the scots tolerating being told they can't vote on their own fate until 2055.

They could just run an advisory referendum and if it demonstrated a desire to leave Westminster would look anti-democratic refusing them the ability to leave until 2055.

It would be boycotted by the unionists. Very difficult to claim a referendum shows anything if one side, especally the pro status-quo side, refuses to participate.

Scottish independence

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